Class III Milk(CME) - gpvec

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How to Interpret Seasonal Pattern Charts Seasonal Pattern Chart Explanation ach chart consists of two aspects of a market’s seasonal pattern—the longest (up to 10 years) for which data Eexists (solid line) and its most recent 5-year (dotted line), December 2007 contracts inclusive. Thus, any evolution in the pattern may be perceived, as well as trends, tops, and bottoms coincident to both. The numerical index to the right measures the greatest historical tendency for the market to make a seasonal high (100) or low (0) at a given time. Besides illustrating the more obvious seasonal tops, seasonal bottoms, and seasonal trends, these patterns also suggest certain cause/effect phenomena which may present secondary opportunities. For instance, do smaller but well-defined breaks/rallies typically precede certain events, such as the Super Bowl or expiration of a lead contract? If so, does there exist an implied opportunity? 9 Year Pattern 5 Year Pattern January Class III Milk(CME) Seasonal Patterns(1999-2007) Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan How to Interpret Seasonal Average Charts utures markets are designed to enable those involved in the commerce of the underlying commodity to manage their Frisk of price fluctuation. Because commercial hedging is a purchase or sale in futures that temporarily substitutes for a similar transaction in the cash market, the relationship between cash and futures is of vital importance. Charts in the Basis section portray an averaged difference between a designated cash price and a designated futures contract price, commonly referred to as “basis.” Per industry standard, the daily futures closing price is subtracted from the underlying cash price to determine chart points and cash quotes of “$1.00 over” or “$0.05 under” futures—the fluctuation of cash around futures. Because futures prices are the reference against which cash quotes are made, futures prices are represented on the charts by the 0-line. [The chart itself consists of both a longer average (the solid line) and its most recent 5-year average (the dotted line).] From these charts, one may discern not only the degree to which basis typically widens/narrows at any given time of the year. 10 Year Pattern 5 Year Pattern Cheddar Cheese Blocks - Jan Class III Milk(CME) 10 Year Average(98-07) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 8 HISTORICAL DAIRY REPORT 100 80 60 40 20 0 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00
Page SEASONAL PATTERNS & WEEKLY CONTINUATIONS Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 May, Jun, Jul, Aug . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Jan vs: Feb, Mar, Apr, May . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Feb vs: Mar, Apr, May, Jun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Mar vs: Apr, May, Jun, Jul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 Apr vs: May, Jun, Jul, Aug . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 May vs: Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 Jun vs: Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26 Jul vs: Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28 Aug vs: Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 Sep vs: Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 Oct vs: Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34 Nov vs: Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36 Dec vs: Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38 STRATEGIES Seasonal Trade & Spreads Strategy Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38 Seasonal Strategy Detail Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 Class III Milk Class III Milk MOORE RESEARCH CENTER, INC. 9
Page 1 and 2: COMMODITY PRODUCTS 2008 Moore Resea
Page 3 and 4: For Your Information Class III Milk
Page 5 and 6: Chicago Mercantile Exchange has off
Page 7 and 8: Nonfat Dry Milk Futures Merchandise
Page 9: MOORE RESEARCH CENTER, INC. 7 Perso
Page 13 and 14: 19.00 18.00 17.00 16.00 15.00 14.00
Page 15 and 16: 22.00 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00
Page 17 and 18: 22.00 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00
Page 19 and 20: 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 -2.00 -4.00 -6.
Page 21 and 22: 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.0
Page 23 and 24: 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.00 -3.00 -4
Page 25 and 26: 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.
Page 27 and 28: 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Page 29 and 30: 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.0
Page 31 and 32: 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.00 -3.
Page 33 and 34: 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.
Page 35 and 36: 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50
Page 37 and 38: 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00
Page 39 and 40: 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.0
Page 41 and 42: 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50
Page 43 and 44: Seasonal Strategy 20 Buy Jul Class
Page 45 and 46: How to Interpret a Strategy Sheet n
Page 47 and 48: CONT YEAR ENTRY DATE Buy Apr Class
Page 49 and 50: CONT YEAR BUY DATE Buy on approxima
Page 53 and 54: CONT YEAR ENTRY DATE Buy Oct Class
Page 55 and 56: CONT YEAR ENTRY DATE Buy Jul Class
Page 59 and 60: CONT YEAR SELL DATE Sell on approxi
Page 61 and 62:
CONT YEAR BUY DATE Buy on approxima
Page 63 and 64:
CONT YEAR ENTRY DATE Buy Aug Class
Page 65 and 66:
CONT YEAR ENTRY DATE Buy Oct Class
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
CONT YEAR ENTRY DATE Buy Dec Class
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Dairy Industry and Futures Charts P
Page 75 and 76:
+1 STD Above Central Tendency -1 ST
Page 77 and 78:
Bear Pattern Bull Pattern Bear Patt
Page 79 and 80:
Bear Pattern Bull Pattern Bear Patt
Page 81 and 82:
Historical Daily Futures Charts (Cl
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13.50 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00
Page 85 and 86:
13.50 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00
Page 87 and 88:
13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50
Page 89 and 90:
13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50
Page 91 and 92:
13.50 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00
Page 93 and 94:
13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50
Page 95 and 96:
Page Block Cheese/Class III Milk Fu
Page 97 and 98:
12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.0
Page 99 and 100:
10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 -2.0
Page 101 and 102:
8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 -2.00 -4.0
Page 103 and 104:
22.00 21.00 20.00 19.00 18.00 17.00
Page 105 and 106:
MRCI Staff President: Steve Moore s
Page 107 and 108:
Futures trading is not suitable for
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Class III Milk(CME) - gpvec

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