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中国黄金市场的发展

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<strong>中国黄金市场的发展</strong><br />

上海黄金交易所理事长<br />

上海黄金交易所理事长<br />

王 喆<br />

2012 2012年6月 2012 中国北京<br />

中国北京<br />

1


一、中国黄金市场体系<br />

中国黄金市场体系<br />

内 容<br />

二、中国黄金市场发展趋势势<br />

中国黄金市场发展趋势势<br />

中国黄金市场发展趋势势<br />

三、中国黄金市场在世界黄金市场中的地位和角色<br />

中国黄金市场在世界黄金市场中的地位和角色<br />

2


一、中国黄金市场体系<br />

中国黄金市场体系<br />

3


中国黄金市场经历了十年多快速发展<br />

• 2001年,经国务院批准,由中国人民银行组建的上海黄金交易所正式<br />

成立,标标志着中国黄金市场进入市场化改革的进程⃞此后十年多来来,<br />

中国黄金市场一直保持了快速发展的势势头⃞黄金市场交易规模持续扩<br />

大,交易产品日益丰富,市场主体不断壮大,交易机机制渐趋完善⃞目<br />

前前,中国黄金市场体系已基本本形成⃞<br />

• 截至2011年年末,我国黄金产量连续五年保持全球第一,场内黄金现<br />

货交易量位居全球第一,黄金期货交易量位居全球第四⃞黄金市场在<br />

价格发现、资源配置等方面的作用不断显现,在支持国内黄金产业改<br />

革和发展方面的作用逐渐增强⃞<br />

4


中国黄金市场体系<br />

中国黄金市场体系基本本形成“两所一柜柜 两所一柜柜 两所一柜柜”的格局⃞<br />

两所一柜柜<br />

两所 两所是指:<br />

两所<br />

上海黄金交易所:黄金现货、黄金现货延期、黄金询价交易<br />

上海期货交易所:黄金期货合约<br />

一柜柜 一柜柜是指:<br />

一柜柜<br />

商业银行黄金业务:代理交易所场内黄金业务;自营品牌实物金、纸黄<br />

金、黄金远期、黄金期权权、黄金理财产品等<br />

金铺金店的柜柜台销售:柜柜台金条条、金币、金饰品等<br />

5


上海黄金交易所<br />

近年来来,上海黄金交易所继续以服务实体经济为宗旨,顺应市场发展规律<br />

,加强以实物黄金交易为基础的黄金市场建设,不断提高市场国际化程度<br />

,扩大对外开放,强化市场风险管理,修订完善市场交易规则,加大交易<br />

系统建设力力度,维护市场参与者利益,稳步推动市场健康规范发展⃞<br />

6


黄金成交量<br />

(吨)<br />

黄金交易量和交易额不断增长<br />

吨<br />

8000<br />

7000<br />

6000<br />

5000<br />

4000<br />

3000<br />

2000<br />

1000<br />

0<br />

42.49<br />

470.69 665.3 906.421,249.60 1828.13<br />

4463.77 4710.819<br />

6,051.50<br />

7,438.46<br />

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

交易量 交易金额<br />

亿元<br />

亿元<br />

30000<br />

25000<br />

20000<br />

15000<br />

10000<br />

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

42.49 470.69 665.30 906.42 1,249.60 1,828.13 4,463.77 4,710.82 6,051.50 7,438.46<br />

5000<br />

0<br />

7


• 2011年,上海黄金交易所黄金交易量7,438.46吨(双边),同比增长<br />

22.92%;成交金额24,772.18亿元,同比增长53.31%;白银共成交<br />

247,057.58吨;铂金共成交65.03吨⃞从2002年正式运行到到2011年底<br />

,交易所共成交黄金27,827.18吨⃞2004至2011年期间,黄金交易量<br />

年均增幅为45.35%⃞<br />

• 2011年,上海黄金交易所实物黄金交割割量为1,043.03吨⃞从2002年正<br />

式运行到到2011年底,共交割割黄金4,272.86吨,对中国黄金产业成长壮<br />

大和金融市场发展产生了积极极的推动作用⃞<br />

8


金融类会员<br />

综合类会员<br />

自营类会员<br />

市场成员稳步增长<br />

可进行自营和代理业务及央行批准的其它业务<br />

可进行自营和代理业务<br />

可进行自营业务<br />

外资会员 外资会员情况<br />

交易所目前前共有<br />

交易所目前前共有166<br />

交易所目前前共有 166 166家会员<br />

家会员,其中<br />

家会员 其中 其中:金融类会员<br />

其中 金融类会员<br />

金融类会员25<br />

金融类会员 25 25家、综合类会<br />

25 综合类会<br />

员130 130 130家、自营类会员<br />

130 自营类会员<br />

自营类会员3家,外资会员<br />

自营类会员 外资会员 外资会员8家⃞<br />

外资会员<br />

9


• 截至2011年末,个人投资者开户数234.85万户,较上年增长32.05%<br />

;法人客户数8,052户,较上年增长19.27%⃞<br />

• 2011年,包包括银行在内的法人机机构构共成交黄金5,932.42吨,占黄金总<br />

成交量的79.75%;个人投资者黄金交易量1,506.05吨,同比增长<br />

30.53%⃞<br />

10


上海期货交易所<br />

• 上海期货交易所于2008年1月9日推出黄金期货后,我国黄金期货市场持续稳步发展⃞<br />

• 2011年,上海期货交易所黄金期货合约成交规模增长较快,按双边统计,全年黄金期货各<br />

合约成交量1,444.35万手(合14,443.52吨),同比增长112.59%,成交金额5.1万亿元,同<br />

比增长178.68%⃞目前前已成为世界黄金期货成交量排名第四的交易所⃞<br />

2011年全球黄金期货合约成交量排名<br />

年全球黄金期货合约成交量排名<br />

数据来来源 数据来来源:美国期货业协会<br />

数据来来源 美国期货业协会<br />

美国期货业协会(FIA)<br />

美国期货业协会<br />

11


商业银行的黄金业务<br />

• 商业银行黄金业务近年来来迅速发展,初步形成了实物类、交易类、融<br />

资类、理财类四大黄金产品体系,实现了跨越境内外市场、覆盖现货<br />

、期货及其他衍生品交易的系统化运作⃞<br />

• 商业银行在场内、场外黄金市场业务的影响力力都在不断增强⃞<br />

12


商业银行的场内黄金业务<br />

• 2011年,上海黄金交易所的银行金融类会员由25家增至29家,全年<br />

共有26家商业银行参与了上海黄金交易所自营交易业务,累计成交<br />

2,834.122吨,比上年增加740.41吨,增长了35.36%⃞<br />

• 2011年,上海期货交易所的商业银行会员由7家增至9家⃞<br />

13


商业银行的场外黄金业务<br />

• 2011年,商业银行的各项场外黄金业务增长较快,其中账户金业务累计<br />

成交2,003.49吨,同比增长50%⃞账户金成交总量约占商业银行境内场<br />

外黄金业务总量的75.8%⃞<br />

• 截至2011年年末,我国共有19家商业银行开办办了品牌实物黄金销售和回<br />

购业务(包包括自营品牌金和代理品牌金),较2010年新增7家,全年累计<br />

成交 135.64吨,同比增长62.52%⃞<br />

• 2011年,商业银行黄金租借业务、实物金销售和回购业务都发展迅速,<br />

同比增幅分别超过90%和60%⃞<br />

• 此外,商业银行还推出了黄金质押贷款、黄金理财产品等业务,满足不<br />

同客户的投资需求⃞<br />

14


商业银行境外黄金业务平稳增长<br />

• 商业银行从事境外黄金业务主要为了冲抵在境内形成的黄金交易头寸<br />

,尤其是账户金头寸,也有利用境内外金价价差进行的套利交易⃞目<br />

前前开展的境外交易品种以黄金即期、远期和掉期为主,还包包括少量的<br />

黄金期权权⃞<br />

• 截至2011年年末,我国共有13家银行开办办境外黄金业务⃞2011年,我<br />

国商业银行在境外开展的各类黄金业务累计成交13,022.77万盎司(<br />

约合4,050.5吨),同比增长13.07%,累计成交金额2,062.41亿美元<br />

,同比增长46.37%⃞<br />

15


境内外资银行的黄金业务<br />

• 2011年,上海黄金交易所市场参与主体国际化程度进一步提高,新增大<br />

华银行(中国)有限公司、英国巴克莱银行有限公司上海分行、摩根大通 摩根大通<br />

银行 银行(中国<br />

银行 中国 中国)有限公司<br />

中国 有限公司 有限公司3家外资金融类会员⃞<br />

有限公司<br />

• 目前前,上海黄金交易所共有汇丰(中国)有限公司、渣打(中国)有限公<br />

司、加拿大丰业银行有限公司广州分行、澳新(中国)有限公司、瑞士信<br />

贷银行股份有限公司上海分行、及上述3家共8家外资金融类会员⃞<br />

• 2011年,上海黄金交易所外资金融类会员累计成交343.84吨,比上年增<br />

加126.54吨,同比增长58.23%⃞<br />

16


二、中国黄金市场发展趋势势<br />

中国黄金市场发展趋势势<br />

17


(一)中国经济仍将保持稳步<br />

中国经济仍将保持稳步<br />

中国经济仍将保持稳步、健康发展态势势<br />

中国经济仍将保持稳步 健康发展态势势<br />

18


当前前中国经济的情况<br />

• 2011年,中国国民经济实现了9.2%的增长⃞<br />

• 目前前,中国正处在调整经济结构构和外需疲软的经济背景下⃞预期中国经济2012年增速<br />

放缓、平稳回调⃞在国际货币基金组织4月份更新的全球经济展望中,预期中国经济<br />

2012年增长 8.2%;世界银行近期发布报告预期今年中国经济的增长8.4%;而联合国<br />

发布的年度经济报告,预期今年中国经济的增长放慢到到8.7%⃞这些预期都显示,中国<br />

经济虽增速略有放缓,但仍然处在高速增长的过程中⃞<br />

% IMF全球经济展望中中国<br />

全球经济展望中中国<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

全球经济展望中中国GDP年增速 年增速 年增速图 年增速<br />

中国GDP年增速(不变价)<br />

19


中国经济在全球经济的占比增加<br />

100,000.00<br />

80,000.00<br />

60,000.00<br />

40,000.00<br />

20,000.00<br />

0.00<br />

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014<br />

全球购买力力平价GDP 中国购买力力平价GDP<br />

购买力力平价下的全球<br />

购买力力平价下的全球GDP<br />

购买力力平价下的全球 GDP GDP和中国 GDP 中国 中国GDP 中国 GDP GDP及预期<br />

及预期(数据来来源<br />

及预期 数据来来源 数据来来源:IMF<br />

数据来来源 IMF IMF,2012 IMF 2012 2012年4月更新的<br />

2012 月更新的 月更新的数据<br />

月更新的 数据 数据,单位 数据 单位 单位:10 单位 10 10亿国际元<br />

亿国际元) 亿国际元<br />

2001 2001 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014<br />

2014<br />

全球 全球GDP 全球 GDP 44,234.85 46,214.87 48,875.88 52,658.08 56,794.46 61,638.18 66,754.97 70,029.90 70,138.99 74,604.11 78,897.43 82,646.73 87,251.02 92,348.70<br />

中国 中国GDP 中国 GDP 3,338.92 3,701.13 4,157.82 4,697.90 5,364.26 6,239.57 7,329.92 8,214.37 9,065.92 10,128.31 11,299.97 12,387.05 13,679.69 15,094.13<br />

占比 占比 7.55% 8.01% 8.51% 8.92% 9.45% 10.12% 10.98% 11.73% 12.93% 13.58% 14.32% 14.99% 15.68% 16.34%<br />

20


2012年中国经济的情况<br />

• 国家统计局经济运行报告显示: 2012年一季度中国经济总体平稳,<br />

国内生产总值107,995亿元,按可比价格计算,同比增长8.1%⃞<br />

• 总的来来看,一季度经济增速有所回落,但仍处在合理适度增长区间⃞<br />

• 国家统计局数据显示,1-5月份,固定资产投资增速为20.1%,是<br />

2003年以来来最低⃞5月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长13.8%,同时<br />

也创下2006年8月以来来新低⃞5月出口同比增长15.3%,进口同比增长<br />

12.7%,进出口总值增长14.1%,当月进出口规模刷新去年11月创下<br />

的历史纪录,外贸再次回到到两位数的增长⃞<br />

21


• 2012年5月,中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为50.4%,位于临界<br />

点以上⃞全国居民消费价格总水平同比上涨3.0%,消费价格涨幅处在<br />

下降趋势势中⃞<br />

• 中国人民银行自2012年6月8日起下调金融机机构构人民币存贷款基准利<br />

率,一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点⃞<br />

• 相信中国经济靠体制改革、制度创新等措施,会在稳增长、促转型、<br />

抑通胀之间找到到突破口,平稳较快发展⃞<br />

22


(二)中国黄金供应和需求情况<br />

中国黄金供应和需求情况<br />

23


中国黄金供应量不断增长<br />

• 2011年,中国黄金产量、黄金工业产值及盈利均再创历史最高纪录⃞<br />

全年黄金产量达360.96吨,较上年增加了20.08吨,增长了5.87%;全<br />

年黄金工业产值达到到2,843.702亿元,比上年增加了550.823亿元,增<br />

长24.02%⃞<br />

• 中国黄金产量已连续5年居世界第一,而且黄金探明储量也在世界前前<br />

列⃞<br />

• 据中国黄金协会统计,2011年中国回收金达405.82吨,较上年增长<br />

58.33%,成为中国黄金供应的主要来来源之一⃞<br />

24


全球矿产<br />

黄金(吨)<br />

中国矿产黄金产量稳步提高<br />

中国矿产金保持五年全球<br />

第一⃞2011年共生产黄金<br />

360.96吨,占全球<br />

2,809.50吨的12.85%⃞<br />

2012年1季度产金80.8<br />

吨,同比增长10%⃞<br />

3000<br />

2500<br />

2000<br />

1500<br />

1000<br />

500<br />

0<br />

中国和全球矿产黄金量<br />

2620.42645.72618.42622.8 2494.32549.1 2483.12473.22408.8 2,584.30 2708.62,809.50<br />

175 181.83189.81200.598212.348224.05240.078270.491282.007313.98340.876360.96<br />

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

全球矿产黄金(吨) 中国矿产黄金(吨)<br />

2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2005 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

2,620.4 2,645.7 2,618.4 2,622.8 2,494.3 2,549.1 2,483.1 2,473.2 2,408.8 2,584.30 2,708.6 2,809.50<br />

中国矿产<br />

黄金(吨)<br />

175 181.83 189.81 200.598 212.348 224.05 240.078 270.491 282.007 313.98 340.876 360.96<br />

占 比 6.68% 6.87% 7.25% 7.65% 8.51% 8.79% 9.67% 10.94% 11.71% 12.15% 12.58% 12.85%<br />

25


中国已探明资源储量增长较快<br />

7000<br />

6000<br />

5000<br />

4000<br />

3000<br />

2000<br />

1000<br />

0<br />

中国查查明资源储量(2004年—2010年)<br />

吨 中国查查明资源储量<br />

中国查查明资源储量<br />

8000<br />

4614.7 4752.16 4996.9<br />

5541.34<br />

5951.79<br />

6327.9<br />

• 近年来来中国已探明资源储量呈较快增长态势势,已探明储量连续八年增<br />

长,这是中国黄金产量持续增长的重要物质条条件⃞<br />

• 中国已探明的储量在南非、俄罗斯后列世界第三⃞<br />

6864.79<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010<br />

26


中国黄金需求旺盛<br />

• 近年来来,中国已成为全球第二大黄金需求国,紧随印度之后⃞<br />

• 据世界黄金协会数据,2011年首饰用金和金条条金币投资需求,印度为<br />

933.4吨,中国为769.8吨⃞然而第四季度中国首饰用金131.4吨、金<br />

币和金条条投资59.5吨,共190.9吨,已超过印度的173吨⃞<br />

• 2011年第四季度,中国和印度的黄金需求量达到到363.9吨,占全世界<br />

季度黄金需求818吨的44.49%⃞中国占全世界黄金需求的23.34%,接<br />

近四分之一⃞<br />

27


经济发展推升黄金需求<br />

• 在2012年一季度中国经济增速放缓时,中国黄金需求却在第一季度扩<br />

增至创纪录的水平,为全球最大的黄金消费市场⃞世界黄金协会数据<br />

显示,一季度全球黄金需求为1,097.6 吨,较2011年一季度的高位水<br />

平下降5%⃞而中国的黄金消费总需求逆全球下滑趋势势增长10%,达<br />

到到255.2吨,创季度需求量新高⃞<br />

• 目前前,中国的政治稳定、经济持续增长、收入水平上升、城市化步伐<br />

加快,都有助于中国黄金需求的不断增大⃞<br />

• 中国的黄金需求在全球黄金需求的占比将进一步提高,将继续推动全<br />

球黄金市场的发展⃞<br />

28


中国黄金需求有超越印度的趋势势<br />

吨<br />

印度 中国<br />

2009年-2011年中国和印度的季度黄金首饰和投资需求图<br />

(来来源:GFMS, 世界黄金协会)<br />

印度联邦政府近期将撤销2012年3月17日生效的对所有珠宝实施的特种消费<br />

行为税,但印度政府并未撤销上调黄金进口税率一倍至4%的决定,对印度<br />

黄金市场的发展有影响⃞<br />

29


(三)中国黄金市场近期的监管政策<br />

中国黄金市场近期的监管政策<br />

30


• 2011年11月国务院颁布了《国务院关于清理整顿各类交易场所切实防范<br />

金融风险的决定⃤(国发〔2011⃭38 号),防范各类交易场所违法交<br />

易活动蕴藏的风险⃞<br />

• 2011年年末,为促进黄金市场健康发展,防范金融风险,规范黄金交易<br />

行为,中国人民银行、公安部、工商总局、银监会、证监会等五部委联<br />

合发布《关于加强黄金交易所或从事黄金交易平台管理的通知⃤(银发<br />

2011[301]号)⃞《通知⃤指出上海黄金交易所和上海期货交易所是经国<br />

务院批准开展黄金交易的交易所⃞任何地方、机机构构或个人均不得设立黄<br />

金交易平台⃞《通知⃤的发布,有效整顿了黄金市场秩序,维护了投资<br />

者利益,保障了黄金市场的健康平稳运行⃞<br />

31


• 国家外汇管理局2012年2月27日公布了《关于银行贵金属业务汇率敞口<br />

外汇管理有关问题的调整⃤(汇发[2012]8号)明确银行对备案后的贵<br />

金属业务汇率敞口,可视同自身结售汇交易进行评判,从而大大增加<br />

了银行在上海黄金交易所黄金延期业务中的头寸管理便利⃞<br />

• 目前前,中国人民银行正不断加强黄金市场的立法工作,正在制订《黄<br />

金市场管理条条例⃤⃞<br />

32


(四)未来来<strong>中国黄金市场的发展</strong><br />

未来来<strong>中国黄金市场的发展</strong><br />

33


中国经济的稳步增长,对黄金的潜在需求增长,是我国黄金<br />

市场继续保持快速发展的基础;监管制度的不断完善,是我<br />

国黄金市场健康发展的保障⃞可以预计,今后我国黄金市场<br />

仍将保持蓬勃勃、健康的发展态势势⃞<br />

34


上海黄金交易所的发展方向<br />

• 上海黄金交易所一季度各类黄金品种累计成交1,660.36吨,同比增长16.55%<br />

,日均成交量28.63吨;累计成交金额5,710.13亿元,同比增长35.49%,日均<br />

交易额98.45亿元⃞<br />

• 目前前,上海黄金交易所正在研究的项目有:<br />

• 1、和中国外汇交易中心合作,研究建立银行间询价交易黄金市场⃞<br />

• 2、和上海证券交易所合作,研究开发黄金ETF产品⃞<br />

• 3、加快发展黄金的租借和质押业务,尽快形成中国黄金租借市场⃞<br />

• 4、和上海期货交易所合作,形成共同交割割标标准⃞<br />

35


上海期货交易所的发展方向<br />

• 上海期货交易所一季度黄金期货合约双边累计成交3,269.38吨,日均<br />

成交量56.37吨,同比增长2.9倍;累计成交金额11,287.36亿元,日<br />

均交易额194.09亿元,同比增长3.52倍⃞<br />

• 今年5月28日,上海期货交易所表示,下一步将探索建立上市品种连<br />

续交易制度⃞<br />

• 初步拟定选择黄金期货作为试点品种,目前前已完成模拟盘的测试⃞<br />

36


商业银行的发展方向<br />

• 2012年一季度,26家商业银行参与了上海黄金交易所自营交易业务<br />

,累计成交黄金598.783吨,较2011年一季度略增2%;代理业务累计<br />

成交361.998吨,同比增长11.38%⃞一季度,除商业银行的黄金质押<br />

业务外,其他各场外黄金业务交易量同比均增长⃞其中,黄金租借业<br />

务同比增长八成以上,增速较快⃞<br />

• 中国的商业银行继续丰富和完善国内黄金市场业务⃞<br />

• 同时,积极极参与伦敦和纽约等国际黄金市场,并在国际黄金市场进行<br />

做市商报价等业务⃞<br />

37


国内外黄金市场相互融合<br />

• 目前前,中国黄金市场的开放速度正在加快⃞<br />

• 外国的银行和机机构构不断进入国内黄金市场,参加国内黄金市场业<br />

务,而国内的银行也正在逐步进入国际黄金市场⃞<br />

• 国内外黄金市场更加畅通⃞<br />

38


三、中国黄金市场在世界黄金市场中<br />

中国黄金市场在世界黄金市场中<br />

的地位和角色<br />

的地位和角色<br />

39


我们始终认为,中国黄金市场在不同发展阶段在世界黄金市场中的地<br />

位和角色也不相同⃞<br />

第一阶段是跟随者 跟随者 跟随者,第二阶段是参与者<br />

跟随者<br />

参与者 参与者,第三阶段是引领者<br />

参与者<br />

引领者 引领者⃞ 引领者<br />

40


目前前,我们处在第二阶段⃞2001年中国黄金市场成立后,市场基础比<br />

较薄弱,交易品种少、人才缺乏、交易量较小⃞但经过了10年的快速<br />

发展,市场基础设施建设不断推进,产品不断丰富,中国黄金供应和<br />

需求都位于世界前前列,商业银行黄金业务蓬勃勃发展,也培养了一批专<br />

业人才,中国黄金市场在世界黄金市场中的份额不断增加,对国际市<br />

场影响力力逐步加大,成为世界黄金市场的参与者⃞<br />

41


在世界黄金市场中的地位不断提升<br />

体现在 体现在: 体现在<br />

• 上海黄金交易所场内黄金现货交易量居全球第一⃞<br />

• 上海期货交易所黄金期货交易量居全球第四⃞<br />

• 中国黄金产量连续五年保持全球第一⃞<br />

• 中国黄金需求2011年为全球第二,但2011年4季度和2012年1季度为全<br />

球第一,黄金需求在全球占比接近四分之一⃞<br />

• 中国黄金市场的前前景依然十分看好⃞<br />

42


未来来,中国黄金市场发展壮大后,将成为世界黄金市场的引领者⃞伴随着中<br />

国经济持续、健康增长创造出的更多黄金需求,和中国黄金市场的不断创新<br />

发展,我们相信,中国黄金市场在世界黄金市场中将会拥有更多的定价权权,<br />

最终将引领世界黄金市场的发展⃞<br />

CME永久名誉主席、国际金融期货之父里奥.梅拉梅德到到访交易所时曾称:“<br />

上海黄金交易所创造了全球新兴黄金市场的典范”⃞<br />

43


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资料和数据客观与公正,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保<br />

证⃞本本人在任何情况下不就本本文中的任何内容对任何决策和投资做出<br />

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得对本本文进行任何形式的复制、发表或传播⃞任何机机构构、个人不得对<br />

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• 本本文所载均为个人研究观点,并不代表任何机机构构的立场⃞<br />

44


The Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

Wang Zhe<br />

Chairman & President, Shanghai Gold Exchange<br />

June 13, 2012<br />

46


Highlights<br />

• System of China’s Gold Market<br />

• Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

• Status & Role of China’s Gold Market on the<br />

Global Arena<br />

47


System of China’s Gold Market<br />

48


System of China’s Gold Market<br />

The year 2001 witnessed a crucial moment in the history of China’s gold<br />

market, the establishment of SGE by PBC, the central bank of China. In the<br />

next decade, China’s gold market experienced fast development and rapid<br />

expansion, with the growing products and market participants, as well as<br />

the upgrading system and improving market mechanism.<br />

By the end of 2011, China’s gold production ranked No.1 in the world for<br />

consecutive 5 years, SGE and SHFE ranked No.1 and No.4 respectively in<br />

the world for the spot and futures gold trading. The status and role of<br />

China’s gold market has been further enhanced.<br />

49


System of China’s Gold Market<br />

Exchange Market:<br />

SGE:Spot & Deferred Contracts for gold, silver & platinum<br />

SHFE :Futures Contracts for gold & silver<br />

OTC Market:<br />

Commercial banks<br />

Gold stores & shops<br />

Gold producing & consuming corporations<br />

50


System of China’s Gold Market - SGE<br />

In recent years, by fulfilling tasks set by PBC, board meetings and members'<br />

assembly, SGE strongly enhanced the market influence and safeguarded the<br />

fruits of the market development by upholding the balance of fast development<br />

and risk management, improving the risk control methods and upgrading the<br />

trading system.<br />

51


System of China’s Gold Market - SGE<br />

7000<br />

6000<br />

5000<br />

4000<br />

3000<br />

2000<br />

1000<br />

Trading<br />

Volume of<br />

Gold(tons)<br />

tons<br />

8000<br />

0<br />

42.49<br />

470.69 665.30 906.421,249.60 1828.13<br />

4463.77 4710.82<br />

6,051.50<br />

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

交易量 交易金额<br />

Billion yuan<br />

7,438.46 30000<br />

25000<br />

20000<br />

15000<br />

10000<br />

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

42.49 470.69 665.30 906.42 1,249.60 1,828.13 4,463.77 4,710.82 6,051.50 7,438.46<br />

5000<br />

0<br />

52


System of China’s Gold Market - SGE<br />

In 2011,SGE traded 7438.46 tons of gold,a year-on-year rise of 22.92%;<br />

with the trading amount of RMB 2477.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise<br />

of 53.31%. The annual trading volume of silver and platinum totaled<br />

247057.58 tons and 65.03 tons respectively. From 2002 to 2011, SGE has<br />

traded 27827.18 tons of gold, with an average 45.35% yearly rise from the<br />

period of 2004 to 2011.<br />

From 2002 to 2011, SGE has delivered 4272.86 tons of gold to its members<br />

and clients, a big contribution to the growing and development of China’s gold<br />

industry and the financial market.<br />

53


System of China’s Gold Market - SGE<br />

Financial Member: 25<br />

General Member: 130<br />

Principal Member: 3<br />

Foreign Member: 8<br />

Total Members: 166<br />

54


System of China’s Gold Market - SGE<br />

By the end of 2011, SGE has 2.34 million individual clients and 8052<br />

institutional customers, a year-on-year increase of 32.05% and 19.27%<br />

respectively.<br />

In 2011, institutions (including the banks) traded 5932.42 tons of gold,<br />

accounting for 79.75% of the total gold trading volume in SGE, while<br />

individuals traded 1506.05 tons of gold, a year-on-year rise of 30.53%.<br />

55


System of China’s Gold Market - SHFE<br />

SHFE launched the gold futures contract on Jan 9, 2008.<br />

In 2011, the trading volume of SHFE’s gold futures contract reached<br />

14443.52 tons, a year-on-year rise of 112.59%. The trading amount<br />

reached RMB 5.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 178.68%.<br />

List of the world leading market for gold futures trading<br />

(Source: FIA)<br />

56


System of China’s Gold Market - Bank<br />

The gold business of commercial banks developed rapidly in recently<br />

years, with the product line covering spot, futures and other derivative<br />

contracts.<br />

The influence of commercial banks in exchanges and OTC markets has<br />

been further strengthened.<br />

57


System of China’s Gold Market - Bank<br />

In 2011, SGE absorbed 4 new banks as its financial members and its total<br />

bank members rose to 29. Throughout the year, 26 commercial banks did<br />

prop trading on SGE, with the trading volume of 2834.122 tons, a year-on-<br />

year rise of 740.41 tons, or 35.36%.<br />

In 2011, SHFE absorbed 2 new banks as its members and its total bank<br />

members rose to 9.<br />

58


System of China’s Gold Market - Bank<br />

In 2011, the trading volume of commercial banks’ account gold product<br />

reached 2003.49 tons, a year-on-year rise of 50%, accounting for 75.8% of the<br />

overall self-owned gold business of commercial banks in domestic market.<br />

By the end of 2011, 19 Chinese commercial banks provided the service of<br />

selling and buying back their own physical gold bars, with the trading volume<br />

reaching 135.64 tons, a year-on-year rise of 62.52%.<br />

59


System of China’s Gold Market - Bank<br />

Currently, Chinese commercial banks use the overseas market to conduct the<br />

gold business including spot, forward, swap and options. The purpose of this<br />

type of business is to offset their positions in the domestic market or do<br />

arbitrage between the two markets.<br />

By the end of 2011, 13 Chinese banks traded gold in overseas market, with the<br />

trading volume reaching 4050.5 tons, a year-on-year rise of 13.07%, with the<br />

trading amount reaching 206.24 billion USD, a year-on-year rise of 13.07%.<br />

60


System of China’s Gold Market - Bank<br />

In 2011, JP Morgan Chase (China) Limited, Barclays Capital (Shanghai Branch)<br />

and UOB (China) Limited joined SGE as its foreign members.<br />

By far, SGE has 8 foreign members in all. The other 5 are HSBC (China), Standard<br />

Chartered (China), The Bank Of Nova Scotia (Guangzhou Branch), ANZ (China)<br />

and Credit Suisse (Shanghai Branch).<br />

In 2011, SGE’s foreign members traded 343.84 tons of gold, a year-on-year rise of<br />

126.54 tons or 58.23%.<br />

61


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

62


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

Generally speaking, China’s economy will remain stable<br />

and sound, with continuous growth and development.<br />

63


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

In 2011, China's economic growth reached 9.2 percent.<br />

Forecast for China's economic growth in 2012:<br />

8.2% -IMF<br />

8.4% -WBG<br />

8.7% -UN<br />

% IMF全球经济展望中中国<br />

全球经济展望中中国<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

全球经济展望中中国GDP年增速 年增速 年增速图 年增速<br />

中国GDP年增速(不变价)<br />

64


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

100,000.00<br />

80,000.00<br />

60,000.00<br />

40,000.00<br />

20,000.00<br />

0.00<br />

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014<br />

全球购买力力平价GDP 中国购买力力平价GDP<br />

Global GDP & China’s GDP(Source:IMF,April 2012)<br />

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014<br />

Global<br />

GDP<br />

44,234.85 46,214.87 48,875.88 52,658.08 56,794.46 61,638.18 66,754.97 70,029.90 70,138.99 74,604.11 78,897.43 82,646.73 87,251.02 92,348.70<br />

China’<br />

s GDP<br />

3,338.92 3,701.13 4,157.82 4,697.90 5,364.26 6,239.57 7,329.92 8,214.37 9,065.92 10,128.31 11,299.97 12,387.05 13,679.69 15,094.13<br />

占比 7.55% 8.01% 8.51% 8.92% 9.45% 10.12% 10.98% 11.73% 12.93% 13.58% 14.32% 14.99% 15.68% 16.34%<br />

65


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

In Q1 of 2012, China’s GDP reached RMB 10799.50 billion yuan, a year-<br />

on-year rise of 8.1%.<br />

In General,China’s economy remained steady and stable, while the<br />

society enjoyed stability and harmonious development.<br />

66


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

In May of 2012, China’s PMI reached 50.4%. CPI rose 3.0% .<br />

On June 8 of 2012, PBC cut interest rate by 0.25%, for loans between banks.<br />

67


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

Supply & Demand of China’s Gold Market<br />

68


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

In 2011, China’s gold production reached 360.96 tons, a year-on-year rise<br />

of 20.08 tons or 5.87%. The annual output value of the gold industry<br />

reached RMB 284.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 24.02%.<br />

In 2011, the scrap gold in China reached 405.82 tons, a year-on-year rise of<br />

58.33%.<br />

69


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

In 2011, China’s gold<br />

production reached<br />

360.96 tons, accounting<br />

for 12.85% of the total<br />

world gold production. In<br />

Q1 of 2012, China<br />

produced 80 tons of gold.<br />

3000<br />

2500<br />

2000<br />

1500<br />

1000<br />

500<br />

0<br />

中国和全球矿产黄金量<br />

2620.42645.72618.42622.8 2494.32549.1 2483.12473.22408.8 2,584.30 2708.62,809.50<br />

175 181.83189.81200.598212.348224.05240.078270.491282.007313.98340.876360.96<br />

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

全球矿产黄金(吨) 中国矿产黄金(吨)<br />

2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

World World Gold<br />

Gold<br />

Production<br />

Production<br />

(tons tons tons) tons<br />

China China Gold<br />

Gold<br />

2620.4 2645.7 2618.4 2622.8 2494.3 2549.1 2483.1 2473.2 2408.8 2,584.30 2708.6 2,809.50<br />

Production<br />

Production<br />

(tons tons tons) tons<br />

175 181.83 189.81 200.598 212.348 224.05 240.078 270.491 282.007 313.98 340.876 360.96<br />

percentage percentage 6.68% 6.87% 7.25% 7.65% 8.51% 8.79% 9.67% 10.94% 11.71% 12.15% 12.58% 12.85%<br />

70


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

China’s reserve volume ranks No.3, behind South Africa and Russia. It laid a<br />

solid foundation for the future healthy development of the country’s gold<br />

industry.<br />

吨 China’s Reserve Volume(2004年—2010年)<br />

8000<br />

7000<br />

6000<br />

5000<br />

4000<br />

3000<br />

2000<br />

1000<br />

0<br />

4614.7 4752.16 4996.9<br />

5541.34<br />

5951.79<br />

6327.9<br />

6864.79<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010<br />

71


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

China has become the second largest gold consumer around the world⃞<br />

In 2011, the jewelry consumption and demand of investment for gold bar<br />

and coin in India reached 933.40 tons, while in China, this figure was<br />

769.80 tons. However in Q4 of that year, the figure in China was 190.90<br />

tons, exceeding Indian’s 173 tons.<br />

In Q4 of 2011, 363.90 tons of gold consumed by both China and India<br />

accounted for 44.49% of the total world demand in that period.<br />

72


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

When China’s economy slowed down a bit in Q1 this year, its demand on gold rose<br />

to a record level, indicating the potential of China to take India’s place as the world<br />

biggest gold consuming country. In Q1, the world gold demand dropped 5%,<br />

compared with the same period of 2011, to 1097.6 tons, whereas China’s demand<br />

rose 10% to 255.2 tons, a quarter new high in its history.<br />

In current stage, China is enjoying a stable political environment, a continuous<br />

growing economy, a richer population and rapid process of urbanization, which are<br />

all positive elements for the development of its gold market.<br />

Broadly speaking, the growth of China’s gold market and its demand on gold, will<br />

in turn, promote the development of the world gold market.<br />

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Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

吨<br />

2009—2011Chart of China and India’s quarterly gold jewelry & investment demand<br />

India China<br />

(Source:GFMS, WGC)<br />

Federal Government of India will stop taxing on jewelry sector, but still<br />

intend to hike import duty on gold, which is expected to exert negative<br />

influence on its gold market.<br />

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Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

Regulation in China’s Gold Market<br />

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Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

In November of 2011, the State Council issued .<br />

Also in 2011, PBC, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for<br />

Industry and Commerce, CBRC and CSRC issued .<br />

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Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

On February 27 of 2012, SAFE issued .<br />

At present, PBC is making new rules and regulations for the country’s gold<br />

market.<br />

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Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

78


Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

The stable growth of China’s economy and the potential growing demand<br />

on gold will be the solid basis for the quick, healthy and sustainable<br />

development of our country’s gold market. In this regard, we have the full<br />

confidence to make more achievements for China’s gold market and the<br />

industry as a whole.<br />

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Development of China’s Gold Market - SGE<br />

In Q1 of 2012, SGE traded 1660.36 tons of gold, with a daily trading volume of<br />

28.63 tons and daily trading amount of RMB 9.85 billion yuan.<br />

The program SGE is interested in:<br />

1、Inter-bank Gold Quotation Market with China Foreign Exchange Trade System<br />

2、Gold ETF with Shanghai Stock Exchange<br />

3、Gold Lease Market<br />

4、Mutual-recognized Delivery Standard with Shanghai Futures Exchange<br />

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Development of China’s Gold Market - SHFE<br />

In Q1 of 2012, SHFE traded 3269.38 tons of gold, with a daily trading<br />

volume of 56.37 tons and daily trading amount of RMB 19.41 billion yuan.<br />

On May 28 of 2012, SHFE announced its plan to launch a consecutive<br />

trading system for its listed contracts and gold would be a tested product.<br />

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Development of China’s Gold Market - Bank<br />

Chinese commercial banks will further focus and develop its gold business<br />

and fully involved in the international market including London and New<br />

York as the market maker.<br />

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Development of China’s Gold Market<br />

Currently, the opening process of China’s gold market is speeding up.<br />

Foreign banks and institutions entered into China’s gold market more<br />

frequently, while Chinese banks were trying to “walk out” gradually.<br />

The smooth connection and close link between the domestic market and the<br />

international market will be a guarantee for the reform and opening of the<br />

country’s gold market .<br />

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Status & Role of China’s Gold Market<br />

on the Global Arena<br />

84


Status & Role of China’s gold market on the<br />

global arena<br />

We strongly believe that China’s gold market will play different roles in<br />

different stages on the global arena.<br />

Stage One: Follower<br />

Stage Two: Player<br />

Stage Three: Leader<br />

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Status & Role of China’s gold market on the<br />

global arena<br />

Currently, we are in the second stage. We are one of the most important parts<br />

of the global gold market. In the past decade, we enjoyed a rapid expansion<br />

and continuous development in the market scale, with a growing trading<br />

products and volume, a team of professionals and specialists, active<br />

participation of members, commercial banks in particular.<br />

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Status & Role of China’s gold market on the<br />

What we achieved:<br />

global arena<br />

SGE became the world leading market for physical gold trading.<br />

SHFE ranked No.4 among the commodities exchanges worldwide in the futures<br />

gold trading.<br />

China became the biggest gold producer around the world and kept that position for<br />

5 years.<br />

China became the second largest gold consumer, whose demand on gold accounting<br />

for almost 25% of the total global demand.<br />

China’s gold market has a prosperous future.<br />

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Status & Role of China’s gold market on the<br />

global arena<br />

In the coming future, we will definitely play a more important role on the<br />

world stage. With the further improving market structure and mature<br />

mechanism, growing demand on gold, the China’s gold market will seek the<br />

possibility of leading the development of the world gold market.<br />

When Mr. Leo Melamed, Chairman Emeritus of CME Group visited SGE<br />

early this year, he described SGE as an incredible successful model for the<br />

emerging gold markets all around the world.<br />

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Disclaimer<br />

This material is not for publication to other persons, whether through the<br />

press or by other means. It is based on information from sources, which I<br />

personally believes to be reliable but it is not guaranteed as to the accuracy<br />

or completeness. Expressions of opinion herein are subject to change<br />

without notice.<br />

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