GRM 2010 Report - Centre of Islamic Studies - University of ...

state – an explanation running parallel to the revised version of Ross’s argument (in a 2009 paper
revisiting his 2001 argument). This is, of course, one version of the rentier argument. As Ross,
in his revised argument of 2009, puts it (‘Oil and Democracy Revisited’ preliminary draft, March
2009):
“The rentier effect may inhibit democratization through three of these four possible routes:
• it may boost the capacities of state elites to thwart democracy through the spending effect;
• it may reduce the interests of the masses in democracy through the taxation effect;
• and it may reduce the capacity of the masses to instigate democracy through the group
formation effect.
I show that the two measurable parts of the rentier mechanism – more government spending and
lower taxes – are directly correlated with Oil Income, and that in combination they help account
for the link between oil and democracy”.
Ross’s 2009 work shows clearly that there is an artistically significant correlation between oil
wealth and lack of democracy, but by the same token there is nothing deterministic about it:
after all, Latin America bucks the trend. Workshop participants agreed that one key conclusion
from the Latin American case is reflected in a different way in the case of the Gulf, that in order
to explain particular outcomes in different political economies, reference to oil (or resource)
wealth is insufficient, and must be complemented by reference to ‘initial conditions’ – as strongly
argued by Adeel Malik’s paper. Applying a ‘new institutional economics’ framework, he stresses
the need to recognize that the resource curse is not inevitable, and that countries may follow
a policy learning curve. The importance of case studies and micro-evidence, and the need to
think in terms of processes as well as outcomes, stands out in that context. This chimed with the
arguments presented by several other participants, that there are a range of other factors to be
kept in mind apart from the availability of natural resources rent: these include path-dependence
and the importance of initial conditions; political culture; regime type; leadership; and size. Indeed,
there was a consensus that the questions need to be addressed in an interdisciplinary manner.
Annika Kropf’s provisional results, using the small-sample statistical method QCA, normally used
for samples between 5-45, indicate that performance on the criteria of governance, regulatory
quality and the rule of law are a necessary condition for growth. In the case of Kuwait, the factor
‘absence of democracy’ appeared to be a necessary condition for growth – but the single case
means the finding cannot be considered robust. There was also a recognition of the importance
of bottom-up societal learning experience, as argued by Sameena Hameed – in other words, of
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