GRM 2010 Report - Centre of Islamic Studies - University of ...

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state – an explanation running parallel to the revised version of Ross’s argument (in a 2009 paper revisiting his 2001 argument). This is, of course, one version of the rentier argument. As Ross, in his revised argument of 2009, puts it (‘Oil and Democracy Revisited’ preliminary draft, March 2009): “The rentier effect may inhibit democratization through three of these four possible routes: • it may boost the capacities of state elites to thwart democracy through the spending effect; • it may reduce the interests of the masses in democracy through the taxation effect; • and it may reduce the capacity of the masses to instigate democracy through the group formation effect. I show that the two measurable parts of the rentier mechanism – more government spending and lower taxes – are directly correlated with Oil Income, and that in combination they help account for the link between oil and democracy”. Ross’s 2009 work shows clearly that there is an artistically significant correlation between oil wealth and lack of democracy, but by the same token there is nothing deterministic about it: after all, Latin America bucks the trend. Workshop participants agreed that one key conclusion from the Latin American case is reflected in a different way in the case of the Gulf, that in order to explain particular outcomes in different political economies, reference to oil (or resource) wealth is insufficient, and must be complemented by reference to ‘initial conditions’ – as strongly argued by Adeel Malik’s paper. Applying a ‘new institutional economics’ framework, he stresses the need to recognize that the resource curse is not inevitable, and that countries may follow a policy learning curve. The importance of case studies and micro-evidence, and the need to think in terms of processes as well as outcomes, stands out in that context. This chimed with the arguments presented by several other participants, that there are a range of other factors to be kept in mind apart from the availability of natural resources rent: these include path-dependence and the importance of initial conditions; political culture; regime type; leadership; and size. Indeed, there was a consensus that the questions need to be addressed in an interdisciplinary manner. Annika Kropf’s provisional results, using the small-sample statistical method QCA, normally used for samples between 5-45, indicate that performance on the criteria of governance, regulatory quality and the rule of law are a necessary condition for growth. In the case of Kuwait, the factor ‘absence of democracy’ appeared to be a necessary condition for growth – but the single case means the finding cannot be considered robust. There was also a recognition of the importance of bottom-up societal learning experience, as argued by Sameena Hameed – in other words, of Gulf Research Meeting – July 2010 43
44 The 2010 Gulf Research Meeting not ignoring the possible agency of civil society, even if this might be slow to crystallize. Indeed, a key point to be noted is that the sorts of evolution examined in the case of the GCC states is certainly not one of short-term ‘transition’, but may range anywhere between persistent if liberalized autocracy of a neo-traditional kind, and long-term evolution towards localized forms of greater political participation – in a timescale that may well be beyond what most measurements target. The teleological assumptions of ‘transitology’, therefore, should be questioned. Part of the recognition of the broader context was laid out by Elena Maestri and Valeria Piacentini, drawing attention to the articulation of two ‘systems’ – one mainly rural/tribal/ traditional, one urban/modern – while eschewing stereotyping of either, nor ignoring their intertwining and evolution in continuous adaptation. But, even while hydrocarbon resources have fed into this evolution, the socio-anthropological complexity needs to be recognized in ways that straightforward international statistical comparison cannot capture. The case of Iran allows a number of interesting comparisons. Hydrocarbon-based rent has been significant, and clearly this rent has allowed both the Pahlavis and the current regime actors to combine the usual patronage, spending and coercion. But papers by Giuseppina Massa and Jennifer
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THE GULF RESEARCH CENTER “Knowled
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