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uildup foreseen' ,Defense Week, 17June 1985, p. 15), although the number is more likely closer to
60. All SS-16 missiles were produced before the SALT II Treaty was signed. SALT II does not
require that the missiles be dismantled, yet support equipment for mobile missiles, such as
transporters for warheads, was moved during 1985 on to railcars at Plesetsk, possibly indicating
the removal of equipment for the SS-16 missiles from the test site; Gordon (note 21).
24 'Soviets identify new chief of Rocket Forces', Washington Post, 19 Nov. 1985, p. 21; Eaton,
W. J., 'Rocket commander replaced, Kremlin says', Los Angeles Times, 26 July 1985.
25 'New Soviet commands for Ogarkov, Zaytsev', Jane's Defence Weekly, 27 July 1985, p. 155;
Jones, D. R. (ed.), Soviet Armed Forces Review Annual, vol. 9, 1984-1985 (Academic
International Press: Gulf Breeze, FL, 1986), p. II.
26 Schmemann, S., 'Russian who made navy a global force is retired', New York Times, 12 Dec.
1985, p. A6. The Commander-in-Chief of the Group of Soviet Forces in the GDR, General
Mikhail Zaystev, has also been removed, replaced by General Pyotr Lushev, former head of the
Moscow Military District Germany; Jane's Defence Weekly (note 25); Eaton (note 24).
27 Committee on Armed Services and Committee on Appropriations, United States Senate,
Soviet Strategic Force Developments, Joint Hearings, S. Hrg. 99-335, 26 June 1985 (hereafter cited
as SASC/SAC, S. Hrg. 99-335). The summary of the NIE (NIE 11-3/8-84/85) was made in
testimony by Robert M. Gates, Chairman, and Lawrence K. Gershwin, National Intelligence
Officer, National Intelligence Council.
28 Authors' calculations derived from SASC/SAC, S. Hrg. 99-335, pp. 6-13 (see note 27).
29 Pincus (note 22).
30 Gertz, B., 'US skeptical of Soviets' reports on SS-25 missiles', Washington Times, 21 Aug.
1985, p. 2.
31 Weinberger's confirmation came on 22 Oct. during a speech before the Ethics and Public
Policy Center in Washington; Weisskopf, M., 'Soviets said to deploy missile', Washington Post, 23
Oct. 1985, p. A4; see also, 'New Soviet SS-25s violate SALT II, Weinberger says' , Baltimore Sun, 7
Dec. 1985, p. 2.
32 Hiatt, F., 'Weinberger urges more for defense', Washington Post, 10 Jan. 1986, p. A8. It has
been reported that the US intelligence community believes that 10 SS-25 launchers are deployed
with each regiment, one of which is always in the field; Samuel, P., 'Big Soviet buildup foreseen',
Defense Week, 17June 1985, p. 15, and Samuel, P., 'What you'll hear on the threat', Defense Week,
24 June 1985, p. 16. This could explain why 10 SS-l1s are being removed for each regiment of 9
SS-25 launchers. An alternative explanation is the deployment of SS-l1s in regiments of 10
launchers each.
33 The Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, United States Military Posture for FY 1987, p. 19
(hereafter cited as JCS, FY 1987).
34 Samuel (note 23).
35 SASC/SAC, S. Hrg. 99-335, p. 57 (see note 27).
36 Deployment numbers are reported in Samuel (note 23); deployment dates are from
SASCISAC, S. Hrg. 99-335, p. 9 (note 27).
37 US Department of Defense, Soviet Military Power, 4th edition (1985), p. 1 (hereafter cited as
SMP 1985); SASCISAC, S. Hrg. 99-335 (note 27); US Department of Defense, Annual Report to
the Congress Fiscal Year 1987, p. 59 (hereafter cited as DoD, FY 1987). The SS-25 has been
reported to be capable of carrying three MIRVs (see, for example, Samuel (note 23»). However,
such a capability is inferred from inconclusive estimates of the missile's throw-weight and not from
test results (i.e., release or simulated release of warheads).
38 See World Armaments and Disarmament: SIPRI Yearbook 1985 (Taylor & Francis: London,
1985), chapter 1.
39 Conversations with DoD officials, Nov. 1985.
40 US Senators James McClure and Steven Symms have alleged that five secret US intelligence
reports each put the number of Soviet ICBM warheads at above 8000; Samuel, P., 'Senators ask
DoD to admit to missile gap', Defense Week, 4 Mar. 1985, pp. 1, 16. Richard Perle, Assistant
Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy, has noted that the number of ICBM
warheads depicted in SMP 1985, some 6300, 'is a minimum figure' because it assumes only 10
warheads per SS-18 missile, instead of 14; Samuel, P., 'Warhead count', Defense Week, 18 Mar.
1985, p. 3. See also Anderson, J. and Van Atta, D., 'The warhead gap between CIA and DIA',
Washington Post, 5 Apr. 1985, p. B8; Evans, R. and Novak, R., 'On the track of the SS-24',
Washington Post, 27 Mar. 1985, p. A23.
41 Andrews, W., 'Weinberger: Soviets still violate arms treaties', Washington Times, 20 Sep.
1985, p. 3.
42 The 1978 and 1979 tests, in which the bus released 10 warheads and simulated the release of
two and four warheads respectively, are reported in Prados, J., The Soviet Estimate (Dial Press: