能源转型和可持续发展 - Europe-China Clean Energy Centre

Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel 

Energy Transition And Sustainable 

Development 

能源转型和可持续发展 

EU Policy Implementation And Its Future Prospect 

欧盟的政策实施和未来展望 

Guido Pepermans


Introduction 介绍 

EU Energy Roadmap 2050 欧盟2050能源路线图 

Long term plan adopted on December 15 th , 2011. 

2011年12月15日通过了长期计划 

Aim 目标 

Reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 80-95% below those of 

1990 in the coming four decades 

未来四十年在1990年基础上减少80-95%的温室气体排放 

Current policy would only reach about 40% of the targeted 

emission reductions 

现有政策只能支持完成40%的减排目标 

Challenge 挑战 

Close the gap 

缩小差距 

While staying competitive and keeping a secure energy sector 

同时确保能源行业的竞争力和安全性




Too ambitious? 太雄心勃勃? 

If plans aren’t made or postponed, the cost will be much 

higher 

不制定计划或计划推迟将导致更高的成本 

Roadmap explores different routes and alternatives 

towards decarbonisation 

路线图探索了实现脱碳的不同路径和可选方案 

Outcome 结果 

Identify ‘no regret’ options 确定“无悔”选择 

Need to work together 需要共同努力 

10 structural changes 10个结构性变化


Structure Of The Presentation 

演讲内容大纲 

EU Policy on Clean Energy: An Overview 

欧盟清洁能源政策:概述 

The EU roadmap 2050 and the European Energy system 

欧盟2050路线图和欧洲能源体系 

How to implement the energy roadmap? 

如何实施能源路线图? 

What are the challenges and the opportunities? 

有哪些挑战和机遇? 

Energy transition at the country level: Some Case studies 

国家层面的能源转型:一些案例 

The United Kingdom (UK) and Germany 

英国和德国


EU Energy Policy 欧盟能源政策 

The Actors 相关方 

EU Commission 欧盟委员会 

Right to initiate legislation → Considerable impact on the agenda 

有权提出立法→对日程有相当大的影响力 

Has no decisive say 没有决定性发言权 

Can be mandated by the EU Council to prepare Energy 

legislation 可由欧盟理事会授权准备能源立法 

EU Council 欧盟理事会 

Respective ministers (of Energy) of the MS 成员国各自的(能 

源)部长 

Strong focus on Member State (MS) interests 强烈关注成员国的兴趣 

Past: unanimous decision was needed 过去:需全票通过 

Lisbon Treaty → Qualified majority is sufficient 里斯本条约→ 特 

定多数通过原则


The Actors 相关方 

EU Parliament 欧盟议会 

Lisbon treaty gives more power: simple majority is sufficient 里斯本条 

约授予其更多权利:简单多数通过原则 

Member States (MS) 成员国 

Energy ministers and heads of state determine general direction of 

Energy policy 能源部长和国家元首确定能源政策大方向 

EU can only act when given the competence to do so by the MS 只有成 

员国授权后欧盟才能执行 

Not always in short term interest of MS to do so 并不总是根据成员国的短 

期利益采取行动 

Energy mix is MS competence 能源结构是成员国的竞争力 

(Inter-)national energy companies 国际/国家能源公司 

Via Associations and lobby groups 通过协会和游说团体 

National champions have influence via national politics 国家领军企业 

可以通过国家政治产生影响 

Are needed to invest in infrastructure → Important players! 需要投资 

基础设施建设→ 是重要参与者! 

Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel



A Timeline 时间表 

1960s: focus on the national level 着眼国家层面 

1970s: oil crises triggered push towards cooperation 石油危机引发 

对合作的促进 

Guidelines concerning energy supply and energy demand 关于能源供需的 

指导 

Among others, the promotion of nuclear 其中,促进核能 

1980s: environmental protection was included into the Single 

European act 环境保护被纳入欧洲统一法案 

Up to then, energy legislation was mostly driven by economic factors 截至 

此时,经济是环境立法的主要推动因素 

1990s: Environmental protection became prominent driver of 

energy policy 环境保护成为能源政策的主要驱动因素 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports (1990…) 

IPCC评估报告(1990…) 

Earth summit in Rio (1992) 里约地球峰会 

Kyoto protocol (1997) 《京都议定书》 

Increased awareness of the importance of EU coordinated action 更多认识 

到欧盟层面共同行动的重要性

2000s: 




EU Renewables directive (2001 and 2003) 欧盟可再生能源指令 

Emission trading (2005) 排放交易 

EU Energy action plan (January 2007) 欧盟能源行动计划(2007年1 

月) 

Start of an integrated European energy policy 开始统一的欧盟能源政策 

Third package (September 2007) 第三个一揽子(2007年9月) 

Complete the integration of the EU Electricity and Gas Markets 完成欧盟电力 

和天然气市场一体化 

Strategic Energy Technology (November 2007) 战略能源技术(2007 

年 11月 ) 

Set priorities for future energy technologies 为未来能源技术制定了优选次序 

Energy and Climate package (January 2008) 能源和气候一揽子 

(2008年1月) 

European Energy Programme for Recovery (July 2009) 欧洲能源振兴 

计划(2009年7月) 

Legally binding framework for nuclear safety (June 2009) 具有法律约 

束力的核安全框架(2009年6月)




The EU Energy Action Plan 欧盟能源行动计划 

Identifies 3 major challenges → Core of EU policy today 提出三个主要 

挑战→现在欧盟政策的核心 

Sustainability 可持续发展 

Security of Supply 供应安全 

Competitiveness 竞争力 

Working areas are identified 工作领域 

Completion of the internal market 完成内部市场 

Issues concerning security of supply 供应安全相关问题 

Internal energy policies 内部能源政策 

Technology 技术 

The Council invited the Commission to propose regulation in these 

areas 欧盟理事会邀请欧盟委员会制定这些领域的相关政策 

EU Directives on Emission Trading (2008), The promotion of renewable 

energies (2008), Carbon Capture and Storage (2008) 欧盟排放交易指令 

(2008),促进可再生能源(2008),碳捕获和储存(2008)




Energy and Climate package 能源和气候一揽子 

Sets quantifiable targets → the ‘20/20/20 targets’ 

制定量化目标→ “20/20/20目标” 

Reduction of GHG emissions to 20% below 1990 levels 

在1990年基础上减少20%的温室气体排放 

20% of energy consumption covered by renewable sources 

可再生能源占能耗的20% 

20% reduction in primary energy use compared to projected level 

(energy efficiency) 

和预测水平相比减少20%的一次能源消费(能源效率)




The Energy Action Plan was complemented by changes in EU 

legislation → The Lisbon Treaty 欧盟立法的修改完善了能源 

行动计划→里斯本条约 

Includes a title on energy, with emphasis on 包括一项关于能源的标题, 

其中重点关注 

The functioning of the internal market 内部市场运作 

Ensuring security of supply 确保供应安全 

Promoting energy efficiency and energy savings 促进提高能效和节能 

Developing and promote new and renewable forms of energy 发展和促进 

新能源和可再生能源 

Promoting the interconnection of energy networks 促进能源网络之间的 

相互联系 

Decisions on legislative proposals are made via the ordinary legislative 

procedure 通过普通立法程序决定立法建议 

Measures of a primarily fiscal nature require unanimity in the Council 

主要的财政性质的措施需要得到欧盟理事会的一致通过


Current Developments & Future Challenges 目前进展和未来挑战 

Two important strategy papers 两项重要的战略报告 

1. ‘Energy 2020. A strategy for competitive, sustainable and 

secure energy’ (2010) “能源2020--有竞争力的、可持续的和 

安全的能源战略”(2010) 

2. ‘Energy Roadmap 2050’ (December 2011) “2050能源路线图” 

(2011年12月) 

The ‘Energy 2020’ strategy paper 

“能源2020”战略文章 

Builds upon the EU Energy Action Plan 

在欧盟能源行动计划的基础上建立 

Aims at providing new tools that should allow to achieve the 2020 

targets and the targets set in the longer term 

旨在提供新的工具以实现2020年目标和更长期的目标 

Emphasizes the urgent need to act in order to reach the 

climate targets but also to stay competitive 强调迫切需要采取 

行动以实现气候目标,但同时也要保持竞争力 



Facts & Figures – World Energy Demand 事实&数据—世界能源需求 


世界能源需求不断增长 

世界能源需求 

世界其他 

中国 

其他OECD 

欧盟



Facts & Figures – EU Energy Import Dependency 

事实&数据—欧盟能源进口依存度 

欧盟27国能源进口依存度



Facts & Figures – EU Energy Import Dependency by Country 

事实&数据—欧盟各国能源进口依存度 

2009年欧盟成员国能源进口依存度



Facts & Figures – EU Energy Consumption by Fuel 

事实&数据—欧盟能源消费(按燃料) 

煤油气核可再生 

1990和2009年欧 

盟内陆能源消费 

总量(按燃料分) 

内陆能源消费总量 

(Mtoe)



Facts & Figures – EU Energy Consumption by Sector 

事实&数据—欧盟能源消费(按部门) 

不同部门终端能源消费(Mtoe) 

工业交通家庭服务业



Facts & Figures – EU Energy Mix in the Electricity Market 

事实&数据 – 欧盟电力市场能源结构 

Production 

Capacity 

装机 

Gross Electricity 

Generation 

发电量



Facts & Figures – EU Energy Mix in the Electricity Market 


1990和2009年欧盟发电量(按燃料分)



Facts & Figures – Renewable Energy in the Electricity Market 

事实&数据 – 欧盟电力市场中的可再生能源 

欧盟27国可再生能源发电净装机容量



Facts & Figures – Energy Mix in the Electricity Market 


2009年气电装机比例% 

2009年煤电(和其他化石燃料)装机比例%



Facts & Figures – CO2 emissions by Sector 

事实&数据 – 不同部门CO2排放 

欧盟27国分行业CO2排放 

欧盟27国分行业CO2排放 

(比例,2007年数据)



Facts & Figures – 20-20-20 Targets – CO2 emissions 

事实&数据 – 20-20-20目标 - CO2排放 

2009年分行业CO2排放 

2020年温室气体排放目标(和2005年水平相比)



Facts & Figures – 20-20-20 Targets – Renewables 

事实&数据 – 20-20-20 目标 – 可再生能源 

可再生能源所占比例 

2005年水平 

实现2020年目标还需努力



Facts & Figures – Energy Efficiency 事实&数据 – 能效 

20%能效目标 vs. 

部分EEAP能效政 

策截至2009年的预期 

成果(PRIMES模型 

预测结果)



EU is committed to reduce GHG emissions to 80-95% below 1990 levels by 

2050 欧盟承诺2050年在1990年基础上减少80-95%的温室气体排放 


Pathway until 2020 is set in ‘Energy 2020 strategy paper’, but more is needed! 

“2020能源战略报告”中制定了2020年的减排路径,但还不够 

Continues to deliver after 2020 → 40% emission reduction by 2050 

2020年以后需要继续减排→2050年减排40% 

The ‘Energy Roadmap 2050’ 

“2050能源路线图” 

Should give guidance for actions required after 2020 

应该就2020年后需要的行动提出指导 

Market based and technology neutral approach 

基于市场的和技术中立的手段 

Key question 

关键问题 

How to realize the decarbonisation objective while guaranteeing supply, security 

and competitiveness of the energy sector? 

如何在实现脱碳目标的同时保障能源供应、能源安全以及能源行业的竞争力?



Why such a long term plan 

为什么制定如此长期的计划 


Not clear what should follow 2020 agenda → Uncertainty 

不清楚2020年后的日程→ 不确定性 

Necessary investments are postponed 必要的投资被推迟 

‘Energy Roadmap 2050’ explores the challenges posed to the EU power 

sector to achieve this target 

“2050能源路线图”探索了欧盟电力行业实现目标的挑战 

While ensuring security and competitiveness 

同时保证能源安全和竞争力 

Approach 方法 

Assess various scenarios with numerical model (PRIMES) 

利用PRIMES数据模型对不同情景进行评估 

No forecasts! 没有预测! 

Alternative routes are explored 探索了替代路径 

Scenario’s a are of illustrative nature 情景起到说明作用


The PRIMES Model。 PRIMES模型 

Partial equilibrium model 局部均衡模型 


Developed early 1993-94 but continuously extended and updated 

1993-94年开发出来但不断扩展和更新 

Has been used for EU policy evaluation on many occasions 

已经在很多场合对欧盟政策进行评估 

Main model characteristics 模型主要特点 

All economic sectors are represented separately 

所有经济部门分开表示 

Micro-economic foundation, taking into account engineering 

constraints 微观经济基础,考虑工程约束 

Regions 区域 

EU-27, Western Balkans countries, the EFTA countries (Switzerland, 

Norway) and Turkey 欧盟27国、西巴尔干地区国家、欧洲自由贸易 

区国家(瑞士,挪威)和土耳其


The PRIMES Model。 PRIMES模型 

Fuel types 燃料类型 


26 energy forms 26种能源形式 

Demand sectors 需求部门 

Residential, Services and agriculture, Industry, Transportation 

住宅、服务业、农业、工业、交通 

Supply sectors 供应部门 

Electricity and steam, Natural gas, Biomass supply, Refineries, 

Hydrogen, Primary fossil fuel production 

电力和蒸汽、天然气、生物质供应、炼油、氢、一次化石燃料生产 

Time horizon 时间跨度 

2050 by periods of 5 years 到2050年,每5年一个阶段


The PRIMES Model 。 PRIMES模型 




Scenarios explore combinations of 4 decarbonisation 

routes 不同情景探索了4种脱碳途径的结合 


Energy efficiency 提高能效 

Renewable energy resources 可再生能源资源 

Nuclear power 核能 

Carbon capture and storage 碳捕获和储存 

Modelling outcomes 模型结果 

Description of the consequences of carbon free energy 

system 无碳能源系统的结果描述 

Information allows MS to make required energy choices 

信息允许成员国选择需要的能源



Outcomes 结果 


Simulations show clear trends, structural changes, challenges and 

opportunities 仿真结果显示了明确的趋势、结构变化和机遇 

Conclusions common to all or most of the scenarios 所有或绝大多数情景 

的结论基本一致 

Key conclusions on ‘no regret’ options 主要结论是“无悔”选择 

Focusing on common results might help to achieve a common 

European approach 重点关注共同结果可能有助于实现统一 

的欧盟措施 

Conclusion 结论 

Decarbonised system in 2050 is possible at moderate cost 2050年脱碳 

系统在适当的成本下可行 

On the condition that a global climate deal is finalised 其中一个条件是全 

球达成最终的气候协议


The Scenarios 情景 

Two current trend scenarios 2个现有趋势情景 


1. Business as usual 趋势照常 

2. Current Policy Initiatives 现有政策措施 

Five complete decarbonisation scenarios 5个完全脱 

碳情景 

Combinations of the 4 decarbonisation routes 4个脱碳路径的不同 

组合 

1. High Energy Efficiency 高能效 

2. Diversified Supply Technologies 供应技术多样化 

3. High Renewable Energy Resources 可再生能源大量利用 

4. Delayed CCS 推迟CCS 

5. Low Nuclear 低核能


Scenario 1 - Business As Usual 情景1 – 趋势照常 

A common reference scenario, also used in 

一个常见的参考情景,同时也用于: 


Low Carbon Economy Roadmap 低碳经济路线图 

Transport White Paper 交通行业白皮书 

Based on 基于 

Current trends 现有趋势 

Long term projected growth of 1.7%/year 

长期内增长趋势预测:每年增长1.7% 

All policies adopted by March 2010 

2010年3月之间采取所有政策


Scenario 1 - Business As Usual 情景1 – 趋势照常 


发电量和净装机容量


Scenario 2 - Current Policy Initiatives 情景2 – 现有政策措施 



Updates of adopted measures (e.g. Fukshima) 

更新已经采取的措施(例如:福岛事故) 

Includes proposed actions concerning 

包括将要采取的行动 

The Energy Efficiency Plan (March 2011) 能效计划(2011年3月) 

The Energy Taxation Directive (April 2011) 能源税指令(2011年 

4月)


Scenario 3 - High Energy Efficiency 情景3 – 高能效 



Very high energy savings 非常高的节能 

For example, more stringent minimum requirements for appliances 

and buildings 例如,更严格的针对电器和建筑的最低能耗要求 

Result 结果 

41% decrease in energy demand by 2050 (compared to 

2005-06) 2050年能源需求减少41%(和2005-06年相比)


Scenario 4 - Diversified Supply Technologies 情景4 – 供应技术多样化 



Technology neutral approach 技术中立措施 

Technologies compete on a market basis, without specific support 

各种技术在市场上竞争,没有特别支持


Scenario 5 - High Renewables 情景5 –可再生能源大量利用 



Strong support measures for Renewable Energy Supply 

对可再生能源供应的大力支持措施 

Result 结果 

75% of energy consumption in 2050 covered by RES 

2050年75%的能源消费由可再生能源提供 

97% of electricity consumption covered by RES 

97%的电力消费由可再生能源提供


Scenario 6 - Delayed CCS 情景6 – CCS推迟 



Delayed introduction of CCS 

推迟CCS技术的应用 

Result 结果 

Higher share of nuclear 

核能占更高比例


Scenario 7 - Low Nuclear 情景7 – 低核能 



No new nuclear (except those plants under construction) 

没有新的核电(除已经在建的) 

Result 结果 

Higher penetration of CCS, to about 32% in power 

generation 

CCS应用比例较高,约占发电量的32%


Assessment of Impacts 影响评价 

Summarised into 10 structural changes 总结了10个结构变化 

1. Decarbonisation is possible and can be less costly than current policies 

in the long run 脱碳可行,长期内比现有政策下的成本更低 

2. Higher capital expenditure and lower fuel costs 资本开支更高,燃料 

成本更低 

3. Electricity plays an increasing role 电力发挥的作用越来越大 

4. Electricity prices rise until 2030 and then decline 2030年前电价上涨, 

之后下降 

5. Household expenditure will increase 家庭开支将增加 

6. Energy savings throughout the system are crucial 全系统的节能是关 

键 

7. Renewables rise substantially 可再生能源显著增长 

8. Carbon capture and storage has to play a pivotal role in system 

transformation CCS需要在系统转型中发挥至关重要的作用 

9. Nuclear energy provides an important contribution 核能提供重要贡献 

10. Decentralisation and centralised systems increasingly interact 分权和 

集权系统日益相互影响 



10 Structural Changes 10个结构变化 

1. Decarbonisation is possible and can be less costly 

than current policies in the long run 

脱碳可行,长期内比现有政策下的成本更低 

Energy system cost 

能源系统成本 


10.5% of EU GDP in 2005 

2005年欧盟GDP的10.5% 

14.6% in 2050 in the CPI scenario 

2050年现有政策措施情景下的14.6% 

Less exposure to fossil fuel price volatility 

化石燃料价格波动较少 

Due to fall in import dependency to from 58% to 35-45% 

归因于进口依存度从58%下降到35-45%



2. Higher capital expenditure and lower fuel costs 

资本开支更高,燃料成本更低 

Transition from high fuel & operational costs to high capital 

expenditure and lower fuel cost 从高燃料&运行成本向高资本开支和 

低燃料成本过渡 


EU bill for imported fossil fuels substantially lower 欧盟法案中针对化石 

燃料的进口大幅下降 

Cumulative grid investments between 1.5 and 2.2 trillion Euro 

between 2011 and 2050 2011-2050年间累计针对电网投资1.5-2.2 

万亿欧元 

Power plants, grid, heating and cooling systems, smart meters, insulation 

material, low-carbon vehicles…电厂、电网、供热供冷系统、智能电表、 

绝缘材料、低碳汽车 

Large impact on economy and jobs 对经济和就业产生重大影响 

R&D required to develop more cost-competitive technologies 更具 

成本竞争力的技术需要更多研发



3. Electricity plays an increasing role 

电力发挥的作用越来越大 

Share of electricity in final energy demand almost doubles to 36-39% 

in 2050 2050年终端能源需求中电力所占比例增长一倍至36-39% 

Contributes to decarbonisation of 对脱碳的贡献 

Transport: up to 65% of energy demand by car transport 交通:高达65% 

的能源需求来自汽车交通运输 

Heating/cooling 供热/供冷 

Final electricity demand increases in all scenarios 所有情景下的终端 

电力需求都呈增长趋势 

Power sector should increase generation capacity of which large fraction 

decarbonised 电力部门应该增加具有脱碳能力的装机 

2030: 57-65% 

2050: 96-99% 

Start now and minimize investment in carbon intensive plants 从现在开 

始,尽量减少高碳电厂投资 





现有政策情景和脱碳情景下电力所占比例(占终端能源需求的百分比) 

脱碳情景下的范围 

现有政策情景下的范围



4. Electricity prices rise until 2030 and then decline 

2030年前电价上涨,之后下降 

Linked to the replacement of old generation capacity 

和替换落后装机相联系 

Exception 例外 


RES scenario: price continues to rise, but at decelerated rate 

可再生能源情景:价格持续增长,但增长率下降 

97% share of RES in electricity consumption 电力消费中可再生能源占97% 

High capital cost and increased need for balancing and storage capacity and 

grid investments 高资本成本,需要平衡和存储容量以及增加电网投资 

Note: other scenarios also have high RES shares (around 60%), but 

decreasing prices after 2030 

注意:其他情景的可再生能源比例也很高(约60%),但2030年后价 

格下降



5. Household expenditure will increase 

家庭开支将增加 

About 16% in 2030 and levelling out at 15% by 2050 

2030年约16%,2050约15%并逐渐稳定 

Expenditure on energy and energy-related products (for example 

transport) 

能源和能源相关产品(如交通)开支 

6. Energy savings throughout the system are crucial 

全系统节能是关键 

Needed in all decarbonisation scenarios 在所有脱碳情景下都需要 


2030: drop in the range of 16-21% 2030年下降范围在16-21% 

2050: drop in the range of 32-41% 2050年下降范围在32-41%




能源消费总量—现有趋势下和脱碳情景下的范围



7. Renewables rise substantially 

可再生能源显著增长 

At least 55% of gross final energy consumption in 2050 

2050年至少占终端能源消费总量的55% 


Currently ±10% 现在约10%左右 

64% in the high energy efficiency scenario 

高能效情景下达到64% 

97% in the high RES scenario Decarbonisation is possible 

and can be less costly than current policies in the long run 

可再生能源97%情景下,脱碳可行,且长期内比现有政 

策下成本更低



8. Carbon capture and storage has to play a pivotal role in 

system transformation 

CCS需要在系统转型中发挥至关重要的作用 

Plays significant role if commercialised 如可商业化,将发挥重要作用 

Up to 32% of power generation in the scenario with constrained nuclear 

production 该情景下核电发展受限,32%的发电量使用了CCS 

Other scenarios (except RES ): 19-24% 其他情境下(可再生除外): 19-24% 

9. Nuclear energy provides an important contribution 

核能提供重要贡献 

Remains key source of low carbon electricity generation 仍旧是低碳发电的主要来 

源 

Highest penetration in 在下列情景中普及率较高 


Delayed CCS scenario: 18% in primary energy CCS推迟情景:占一次能源的18% 

Diversified supply technologies scenarios: 15% in primary energy 供应技术多样化情景: 

占一次能源的15%



10. Decentralisation and centralised systems 

increasingly interact 

分权和集权系统日益相互影响 

Decentralisation increases 

分权增加 

Decentralised systems and centralised systems will have to 

work together 

分权系统和集权系统分开运行 



Effectiveness and Efficiency 有效性和效率 

Assessment of effectiveness w.r.t. objectives of EU Energy 

Policy 。欧盟能源政策的w.r.t有效性分析 

Sustainability: all scenario’s are effective 可持续性:所有情景有效 

Security of Supply: all scenario’s reduce dependency 供应安全:所有 

情景依存度降低 

Grid stability might become a concern 但电网稳定性可能成为一个问题 

Competitiveness: scenario’s show small changes (up or down) in 

electricity prices 竞争力:情景显示电价略有变化(增长或下降) 

Assessment of efficiency 效率评估 

Costs are similar in all scenario’s 所有情景成本基本相同 

Least cost: ‘Delayed CCS’ and ‘Diversified Supply Technologies’ 成本最小: 

CCS推迟和供应技术多样化 

Overall 总体来看 

No clear winner among policy options → trade-offs will need to be 

taken 政策选择之间没有明显的赢家→需要权衡 



Challenges and Opportunities 挑战和机遇 

1. Transforming the energy system 能源系统转换 


Energy saving and managing demand 节能和需求管理 

Buildings, smart appliances, vehicles…建筑、智能电器、汽车… 

Incentives to change behaviour are needed 需要向改变行为提供奖励 

Switching to renewable sources 向可再生能源转换 

Second major prerequisite for sustainable and secure energy system 可 

持续和安全能源系统的第二大先决条件 

Challenge to drive down costs of renewable energy 降低可再生能源成本 

的挑战 

Improved research, more efficient policies and support schemes 改进研究、更 

有效的政策和支持计划 

More European approach is needed 需要更多欧盟范围的措施 

Convergence in support schemes 收缩支持计划 

Create economies of scale 创造规模经济 

Interconnections 相互影响



1. Transforming the energy system (cont’d) 能源系统 

转换(续) 

Gas plays a key role in the transition 转型过程中天然气起到关键作用 

Smaller share in residential applications, larger share in other sectors 住 

宅领域比例下降,其他部门比例上升 

EU Conventional gas production declines 欧盟传统天然气产量下降 

More import 更多进口 

Unconventional gas resources (shale gas…)? 非传统天然气资源(页岩气…)? 

Potential is large, but uncertainties remain 潜力很大,但仍有不确定性 

Future of CCS determines future of gas CCS的未来决定天然气的未来 

CCS successful → gas becomes low-carbon technology CCS成功→ 天然气成为 

低碳技术 

CCS not successful → gas plays role of backup and balancing capacity CCS不成 

功→ 天然气则起后备和调节作用 

Other fossil fuels 其他化石燃料 

Coal → with CCS, continues to play important role 煤→ 如果有CCS则继续 

重要作用 


Oil → mostly for other applications than transport 石油→ 主要是交通以外 

的应用



1. Transforming the energy system (cont’d) ) 能源系 

统转换(续) 


Nuclear energy 核能 

Accepted in some member states, not accepted in others 

部分成员国接受,部分则没有 

Remains important decarbonisation option 

仍然是重要的脱碳选择 

Supported by the Commission 

受到欧盟委员会的支持 

Smart technology, storage and fuels 智能技术,存储和燃料 

Fuel mixes can change dramatically over time 

随着时间的推移燃料结果将显著改变 

Technological development is important and should be stimulated 

技术开发十分重要,应该促进 

Support of research and demonstration 支持研究和示范



2. Rethinking energy markets 重新考虑能源市场 


New ways to manage electricity 管理电力的新方法 

Member States can decide on their national energy mix 成员国可以自行决 

定其能源结构 

But, EU should ensure that national decisions 但是,欧盟应该确保其决定: 

Are mutually supportive 互相支持 

Avoid negative spill overs 避免负面溢出 

Challenge: integrate flexible resources in the system 挑战:系统中整合灵 

活资源 

Provide incentives for integration 为整合提供激励 

Coordinate efforts at EU level 欧盟层面协作 

Integrating local resources and centralised systems 整合当地资源和集 

权系统 

Flexible infrastructure investments are needed 需要灵活的基础设施投资 

Distribution grid, interconnection, long distance transmission… 配电网、互联、 

远距离传输



3. Mobilising investors 动员投资 


Replacing infrastructure needs to start as soon as possible 更换基础设施需尽 

快启动 

Huge upfront investments are needed 需要巨大前期投资 

Public sector has a role as facilitator → reduce uncertainty 公共部门作为调解 

者的角色→减少不确定性 

Coherence and stability is needed between EU and national policies 需要欧盟和国 

家政策之间的连贯性和稳定性 

Investments should essentially be done by private sector 应主要由私营部门进 

行投资 

Investment with public good character → Support early movers 高质量公共投资→ 

支持先行者 

Support schemes at MS level are allowed, but 允许支持成员国层面的行动,但 

Should be targeted 要有针对性 

Predictable 可预见 

Limited in scope 有限范围 

Proportionate 比例适当 

Include phase-out provisions 包括政策逐步退出的规定



4. Engaging the public 公众参与 


Keep the social dimension in mind 牢记社会层面 

Employment, education…就业、教育 

New infrastructure is needed → Avoid NYMBY syndrome 需要新的基 

础设施→避免NYMBY综合征 

Take account of the local environment 考虑到当地环境 

New pricing mechanisms are needed 需要新的定价机制 

Transparent and understandable 透明和可理解 

Need to invest in equipment that improves energy efficiency and price 

response 需要设备投资,以提高能源效率和价格的反应 

Vulnerable customers might need specific support 易受影响消费者可以特殊 

照顾 

Be aware of the social aspects of energy pricing 了解能源定价的社会方面 

Energy poverty 能源贫困



5. Driving change at the international level 

从国际层面制造改变 


Secure and diversify supply of fossil fuels 

确保化石燃料供应安全和多样化 

Develop international cooperation in other areas 

在其他方面促进国际合作 

Renewables, energy efficiency,… 

可再生能源,能效… 

Expand and diversify links with neighbouring countries 

扩大和多样化与邻国的联系


Conclusions 结论 

Decarbonisation is feasible at moderate cost 脱碳在适当成本 

下可行 

A number of ‘no regret’ options emerge 出现一些“无悔”措 

施 

Transformation should start now 现在应该开始转变 


Requires greater political ambition and sense of urgency 要求更过政 

治决心和紧迫感 

Energy prices will rise until 2030, but will likely decrease 

after that 2030年前能源价格将上涨,但之后很可能下降 

Investments will pay off 投资将收回 

growth, employment, greater energy security and lower fuel costs 增 

长、就业、提高能源安全和降低燃料成本


10 Conditions To Be Met 还需满足10个条件 

Fully implement Energy 2020 strategy 

全面实施2020能源战略 

Energy system and society need to be dramatically more energy efficient 

能源系统和社会需要更高能效 

Continued attention for development of RES 

持续关注可再生能源发展 

Higher public and private investments in R&D are needed 

需要公共和私人部门对研发领域的更多投资 

Fully integrated market by 2014 

2014年前全面统一的市场 

Energy prices should reflect costs 

能源价格应反映成本 

Sense of urgency and collective responsibility is needed 

需要紧迫感和共同责任 

No compromise on safety and security 

不在安全方面妥协 

Broader and more coordinated EU approach 

广泛和更协调欧盟统一措施 

Member States and Investors need concrete milestones 

成员国和投资者需要具体的里程碑 



Energy Transition At The Country Level 国家层面的能源转型 

Energy Roadmap dates from December 2011 能源路线图从 

2011年12月开始 


No ‘policies and measures’ yet at the country level resulting from the 

Energy Roadmap 2050 2050能源路线图还没有为国家层面制定政策 

措施 

Survey of existing Climate Change Policies in two countries 两 

个国家现有气候变化政策调查 

United Kingdom (UK) 英国 

Based on Bowen and Rydge, (2011), Climate Change policy in the United Kingdom, Policy Paper, 

Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, Grantham Research Institute on Climate 

Change and the Environment, pp.45. 基于上述文章 

Germany 德国 

Based on OECD (2012), OECD Economic Surveys: Germany 2012, OECD Publishing. doi: 

10.1787/eco_surveys-deu-2012-en. 基于上述文章


Energy Transition At The Country Level: The UK 国家能源转型:英国 

Started relatively early with Climate Change policy 相对较早实施气候变 

化政策 

Clear, internationally consistent targets are in place 已有清晰、与国际一 

直的目标 

Reduces emissions by more than its near-term targets 减排超过其短期目 

标 


Due to exogenous factors? 基于外部因素?






Decarbonisation of power generation is slow 

电力行业脱碳缓慢 

Limited development of Renewables generation capacity 

可再生能源发电装机发展有限 




Costs are unevenly spread across sectors 

不同行业成本不同 

Large effort is needed to get on the path to 2050 

target 

实现2050年目标还需很大努力 

Role of the European Emission Trading System 

欧洲排放交易体系的作用 




Timeline of UK climate change policies 英国气候变化政 

策时间表 

1989: Non Fossil Fuel Obligation 非化石燃料义务 

2000: Climate Change Programme 气候变化项目 

2001: Climate Change Levy 气候变化税 

2002: Renewables Obligation可再生能源义务 

2002: Energy Efficiency Commitment 能效承诺 

2005: European Unions Emission Trading Scheme 欧盟排放交 

易计划 

2007: Code for Sustainable Homes 可持续家庭规范 

2008: Climate Change Act 气候变化法案 

2008: Carbon Emission Reduction Target 碳减排目标 

2008: Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation 可再生能源交通燃 

料义务 

2008: Energy Performance Certificates 能源性能证书 




Timeline of UK climate change policies (cont’d) 英国气候变化 

政策时间表(续) 


2009: Community Energy Savings Programme 社区节能计划 

2010: Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme 碳减 

排承诺能效计划 

2010: Feed-In tariffs 固定电价 

2010: Carbon Capture and Storage demonstration Project 碳捕获和储 

存示范项目 

2011: Carbon Plan 碳计划 

2012: Renewable Heat Initiative 可再生热能政策 

2012: The Energy Bill 能源法案 

2014: Smart meter roll-out 智能计量器批量应用 

Other: Taxes 其他:税


Energy Transition At The Country Level: Germany 国家能源转型:德国 

Ambitious targets for emission reduction, beyond EU requirements (Kyoto: 

-21%) 雄心勃勃的减排目标,超过欧盟要求(京都:-21%) 

Greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced substantially, but still an 

important emitter 温室气体减排显著,但仍然是重要的排放国家 

Absolute value: largest in the EU 绝对量:欧盟最大 

GHG emissions particularly concentrated in the energy sector 温室气体排 

放主要集中在能源部门 

37% of total GHG emissions in Germany 占德国温室气体排放的37% 







Two programmes define climate and energy strategy两个项目 

定义气候和能源战略 

Integrated Energy and Climate Program (2007) 综合能源和气候计划 

Energy Concept (2010) 能源概念(2010) 

Set targets beyond EU targets 制定超过欧盟的目标 

Emission reduction 减排 

40% (80%) by 2020 (2050) compared to 1990 2020年在1990年基础上减排 

40%,2050年减排80% 

Primary energy consumption 一次能源消费 

20% (50%) reduction by 2020 (2050) 2020年减少20%,2050年减少50% 

Renewables 可再生能源 

35% of electricity consumption by2020 2020年提供35%的电力消费 



May not contribute to cost efficiency at the EU level 在成本有 

效方面可能不会对欧盟层面作出贡献 




Having ambitious targets for Renewables and for GHG 

increases the cost of achieving the targets 雄心勃勃的可再生 

能源和温室气体减排目标增加了实现目标的成本 

Climate Change policy is strongly supported by public opinion 

气候变化政策受到舆论的强烈支持 

Germany may not be able to commit to its targets 德国可能无 

法完成目标 


Recent decision of nuclear phase-out 最近决定核电将逐步退出 

8% capacity reduction 减少8%的装机 

May be costly for Germany 成本可能很高 

Efficiency and coordination of measures can be improved 

可以改善政策效率和相互协调性




•使用大量(重复)政策 

•ETS 

•非ETS覆盖行业的生态税 

•基于能源消费而不是CO2 

•针对外部性,不只是温室气体排放 

•对环境有害的政策依然存在 

•支持化石燃料 

•私人公路运输的税收待遇不利于公共交通的使用 

温室气体排放



Energy Savings 节能 


Policy measures that have been implemented 已经实施的 

政策措施 

Advertising potential energy savings and available technologies 

宣称的节能潜力和现有技术 

Strict standards for the energy performance of new buildings 

严格的新建建筑能效标准 

Low-interest loans and grants for energy performance 

improvements 向改善能效提供低息贷款和赠款 

More focus on solving issues in stimulating energy 

efficiency 更关注解决刺激提高能效的问题 

Split incentives, lack of information…激励分散,缺乏信息…



Renewable Energy Sources 可再生能源 

To reach the RES targets, financial support beyond that generated by 

carbon price is required 为实现可再生能源目标,还需要碳税来源以 

外的财政支持 

Policy measures that have been implemented 已经实施的政策措施 

Feed-in tariffs 固定电价 

Investment support 投资支持 

Renewables have priority access to the grid 可再生能源优先上网 

Improving competition in the energy sectors 在电力行业中提 

高竞争力 

Level of competition currently remains low 现有竞争水平较低 

Would reduce the cost of climate change mitigation 可降低气候变化减 

缓成本 

Customer switching 顾客转移 

Eco-innovation 生态革新

能源转型和可持续发展 - Europe-China Clean Energy Centre

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