Sør-Amerika: Et marked for norsk ... - Energi Norge
Sør-Amerika: Et marked for norsk ... - Energi Norge
Sør-Amerika: Et marked for norsk ... - Energi Norge
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<strong>Sør</strong>-<strong>Amerika</strong>:<br />
<strong>Et</strong> <strong>marked</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>norsk</strong> småkraftkompetanse?<br />
Øyvind Engelstad<br />
General Manager<br />
Norconsult Andina SA<br />
Chile
Content<br />
• Norconsult i <strong>Sør</strong> <strong>Amerika</strong><br />
• <strong>Energi</strong> situasjonen i Chile<br />
• Rammebetingeser <strong>for</strong> Småkraft i Chile<br />
• Samarbeidsmodell <strong>for</strong> å fremmer <strong>norsk</strong> eksport og<br />
investeringer i regionen<br />
2
Main countries of interest <strong>for</strong><br />
Small scale hydro<br />
Central America<br />
Ecuador<br />
Colombia<br />
Peru<br />
Southern Chile<br />
Venezuela<br />
Bolivia<br />
Argentina<br />
Brazil
Norconsult in South America
Projects in Latin America
Norconsult in Chile<br />
• Norconsult has been in Chile from 1985 (Alfalfal)<br />
• Norconsult Andina S.A established in 2007<br />
• 3 Offices (Santiago, Chillan, Los Angeles)<br />
• Main Markets:<br />
– Large scale hydro<br />
– Small scale hydro<br />
– Mining (underground technology)<br />
• At present 26 employees<br />
• Approx. 100-150 assosiated resources<br />
• Support from NO AS on knowledge transfer and specialized<br />
services<br />
• Current involvement:<br />
– 3 mining projects<br />
– 3 Large Scale hydro projects (180-500 MW)<br />
– approx. 20 Small Scale Hydro Projects
Energy Situation in Chile
Dagens <strong>Energi</strong> situasjon - Del 1<br />
• I tørrår importerer Chile 70% av energien (Gass, Olje, Kull).<br />
• 40% av Chiles installerte effekt er vannkraft. Værfenomeenet La<br />
Niña gir periodevis (ca. hvert 3-5 år) tørke i sentrale deler av landet<br />
der de eksisterende vannkraftanleggene er installert.<br />
• På1990-tallet ble 7 pipelines <strong>for</strong> import av gass fra Argentina<br />
installert, men kranene har, i lengre perioder, blitt stengt av<br />
Argentinske myndigheter. <strong>Et</strong>ter 2007 er <strong>for</strong>syningen mer eller<br />
mindre stoppet.<br />
• I senere år har LNG import overtatt deler av av opprinnelig <strong>for</strong>syning<br />
fra Argentina, men dette er ikke nok til å dekke opp energibehovet.<br />
• Chile har økst importen av kull, olje og diesel. I lengere perioder er<br />
det, som følge av underdekning, diesel produksjon som er<br />
prissettende.<br />
9
Dagens <strong>Energi</strong> situasjon - Del 1<br />
• Chile har i dag ca.13,000MW installert effekt.<br />
• Årlig økning i BNP på ca. 7% og stor aktivitet innen gruve og annen<br />
kraftkrevende virksomhet gir estimert behov på ca. 25,000 MW<br />
(dobling) innen 2025.<br />
• Installert effekt vannkraft = 5000 MW (der ca. 200 anlegg < 20 MW).<br />
• Den årlige vannkraft produksjonen er på mellom 20 and 35 TWh<br />
(LF45-80%).<br />
• Det teoretiske potesialet er ca. 165 TWh/y, men utbyggbart<br />
potensiale er selvfølgelig mye mindre som følge av økonomiske,<br />
miljømessige og ikke minst sosiale <strong>for</strong>hold.<br />
• Det største potesialet ligger sør i landet og dermed opp mot 2000<br />
km fra lastsenter.<br />
• Myndighetene ønsker vannkraftandelen skal øke fra 40% i dag til<br />
55% innen 2025. Dette innebærer behov <strong>for</strong> ca. 8000 MW ny<br />
vannkraft innen 8-10 år. Mer enn dobling.<br />
10
Net demand in region SIC<br />
11
Historic production distribution in SIC<br />
vs Marginal cost (USD/MWh)<br />
Gas Diesel<br />
Reservoir HP<br />
Run of river HP<br />
Coal<br />
Gas<br />
12
Run of distribution in the<br />
south central regiones<br />
2000-4000 mm<br />
Variation W to E<br />
13
Current situation <strong>for</strong> SSH<br />
developement
Current situation in SSH market in Chile<br />
• Small scale hydro is in line with Norwegian government policy viewed as<br />
non conventional renewable energy (NCRE)(ny <strong>for</strong>nybar).<br />
• The limit is 20 MW <strong>for</strong> getting «special privileges in the developement», but<br />
energy from plants up to 40 MW will be counted as NCRE.<br />
• Open spot <strong>marked</strong> with modeled least cost marginal cost as basis <strong>for</strong> nodal<br />
price («perfect market») but also many long term PPA’s<br />
• All consumers with more than 200 MW demand must have more than 10 %<br />
renewable in their system.The punishment <strong>for</strong> not meeting the demand is<br />
20-30 USD/MWh in the current situation. Give PPA opertunities.<br />
• Many small investors trying to capture waterrights and develop projects, but<br />
lately some larger developers have also entered the market<br />
• Increasing interest from suppliers, but still limited competition<br />
• Transmission capacity and access to grid is one of the most challanging<br />
hurdles. The laws and regulations have been altered to improve this.<br />
• Development time <strong>for</strong> SSH is 3-4 years from obtaing the waterright to start<br />
of commercial operation<br />
15
Models <strong>for</strong> SSH developement
Advice <strong>for</strong> market penetration<br />
• Local presence<br />
• Local knowledge<br />
• Local contacts<br />
• Solid knowledge of regulatory system and local processes<br />
• Cultural understanding and respect <strong>for</strong> local groups<br />
• Long term commitment to market<br />
• Local supply<br />
17
Our model <strong>for</strong> SSH development in Chile<br />
• Closer cooperation between land owner, waterright owner, developer,<br />
engineers, ESIA team, suppliers and civil contractor through all steps.<br />
• Balanced risk taking between parties<br />
• Portfolio management and optimization<br />
• Utilization of export finance mechanisms to gain competetive advantages<br />
>15% Equity<br />
CAPEX<br />
100% CAPEX<br />
Up to 85%<br />
Eksportfinans<br />
40% Local<br />
30% Foreign<br />
30% Norwegian<br />
15% Commercial bank<br />
85% GIEK<br />
18
We welcome both suppliers and investors to<br />
cooperate in the development of small scale<br />
hydro in South America!
¡Gracias por su atención!<br />
¡Nos vemos en Santiago!<br />
Øyvind Engelstad<br />
Gerente General<br />
Norconsult Andina S.A.<br />
Chile
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