2005 - OPEC

Other regions
Demand growth in the other regions group was unexpectedly low in 2005. As previously
mentioned, China’s oil demand growth was marginal, accounting for only 0.3 per cent of total
world oil demand growth. China had driven demand growth in this grouping in 2004, when
almost two-fifths of total world oil demand growth was witnessed in the other regions group.
For 2005, demand growth for this group was a very moderate 80,000 b/d. In fact, growth
fell into negative figures in the second quarter.
In the FSU, the promising first quarter y-o-y rise of 8.1 per cent, was offset by declines of
0.6 per cent and 3.1 per cent in the second and third quarters, respectively. However, the FSU
returned to positive figures in the final quarter of the year. This final quarter demand growth
came as a result of the freezing temperatures that boosted demand for electricity generation
and the switching to fuel oil as an alternative fuel. However, these sudden cold temperatures
did not impact oil demand growth for other Europe, a group consisting of several Central
European states, which showed an annual rise of 30,000 b/d, or 3.5 per cent.
Balance of supply and demand
As indicated in Table 6 (see page 24), the slower increase in non-OPEC supply in 2005,
compared with the significant rate of increase in world demand, resulted in a significant rise
in the difference of around 580,000 b/d to 28.95 mb/d. However, OPEC crude oil production
increased by around 820,000 b/d to 29.86 mb/d, resulting in a stock-build.
Stock movements
In 2005, OECD oil stocks totaled 4,080 mb, an increase of 79.5 mb (Table 7, see page 24).
Commercial inventories rose by 42.5 mb to stand at 2,593 mb, while the strategic petroleum
reserve (SPR) rose by 36.2 mb, to 1,487 mb. As in 2004, the major contributor to this trend
in OECD commercial stocks was North America, which witnessed an increase of 64 mb, or
2.1 mb/d, to 1,256 mb, followed by Western Europe with a modest increase of 16.3 mb,
or 500,000 b/d, to 943 mb. By contrast, the OECD Pacific observed a decline of 37 mb, or
1.22 mb/d, to 394 mb, although this drop was milder than decline observed in 2004. In terms
of forward consumption, OECD commercial oil stocks increased from 50–52 days in the fourth
quarter of 2005, relative to the end of 2004.
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