2005 - OPEC

Table 6
Summarised supply/demand balance
Notes:
1. Including OPEC NGLs.
2. Selected secondary sources. Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.
2
mb/d
2003 2004 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05
Growth
2005 05/04
World oil demand (a) 79.33 82.28 84.02 82.32 82.79 83.95 83.27 0.99
Non-OPEC supply 1 (b) 52.47 53.91 54.46 54.72 53.83 54.28 54.32 0.41
Difference (a–b) 26.86 28.37 29.56 27.59 28.97 29.67 28.95 0.58
OPEC crude oil production 2 26.97 29.04 29.46 29.90 30.18 29.91 29.86 0.82
Balance (stock change & misc) 0.11 0.67 –0.10 2.31 1.22 0.25 0.92 0.25
At a more disaggregated level, the upward trend in OECD commercial inventories was led by
crude, which stood at 1,223 mb, approximately 50 mb above the 2004 level, while product
stocks declined by 6.7 mb, to 1,371 mb. The movement in OECD crude commercial oil stocks
was mainly due to a 10.6 per cent growth in US inventories, to 321.7 mb. This occurred
despite the damage caused by the hurricane season. Nevertheless, a 1.4 mb/d drop in US
refinery runs, to 14.3 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2005, led to a small 2.2 per cent growth
in product inventories.
As mentioned, the OECD SPR continued its upward movement in 2005 and in terms of forward
days increased by one, to 30 days. In North America, there was a rise of 9 mb, to 687 mb,
in 2005, but the forward consumption remained unchanged at 27 days. The ‘royalty-in-kind
programme’ established in 2004 by the US administration and aimed at boosting the SPR to
700 mb, continued in 2005. Furthermore, new energy legislation states that the US Energy
Department should fill the reserve to one billion barrel from its current capacity of 727 mb.
The guidelines to achieve this aim cover a 15 year period.
The OECD Western European SPR rose by 30 mb, to 407 mb. In terms of forward consumption,
this meant a rise from 24 to 26 days. The OECD Pacific SPR slipped by 3 mb to stand at 393
mb relative to the fourth quarter of 2004, while the days of forward consumption increased
by one, to stand at 46 days. Oil on water witnessed a build-up of 53.0 mb, or 1.8 mb/d, to