Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf den thermischen Komfort in ...

Impacts of Climate Change on the Thermal Comfort of Office Buildings
1.5 Results of Analysis of climate data sets
1.5.1 Average external air temperature
The comparison of air temperatures of the employed data sets displays a difference
in mean monthly temperatures between data sets 61 and 2050 respectively of nearly
3K on a yearly basis. A distinct difference is already discernable between “howa 61”
and “howa 80”: the further one is roughly representing the immediate past, while the
latter one can be regarded as representing today’s situation; In this, an overall
increase in average temperature of more than 1 K has in fact already been recorded.
This is a bigger difference than is to be expected for the time lap between “howa 80”
and “howa 2025”.
It has to be kept in mind that various climate data sets frequently in use today in
thermal simulations for sizing of cooling and heating plants in newly to be build office
blocks roughly date to the period of “howa 61”. Herein lays a considerable danger:
while energy requirements under the use of such climate data sets tend to be
oversized in the case of heating, they run risk of underestimating the cooling demand
and may even result in too low maximum cooling loads and consequent non
satisfying comfort conditions, e.g. frequent overheating in rooms of these new
buildings.
In the overall comparison of climate data sets the observations from 2003 portray this
year as having been hot altogether, but not even as hot as has to be expected on
average for the period of 2050.
average external temperatures [°C]
June - August
25
20
15
10
5
0
Average external temperatures
data sets howa & 2003
10 11 11
howa 61 howa 80 howa 2025 howa 2050 2003
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Graph 7: Average Annual external temperatures for different temporal resolution of howa
However, once only external temperatures during the summer months of June to
August are compared, it turns out that 2003 was even hotter than summers are to be
expected on average for the period around 2050. While the relation between average
temperatures of the “howa” data sets remains generally unchanged as compared to
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