Indian Climate Policy - Global Commons Institute

INDIA’S ROLE IN CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE | 39
the response capabilities of civilian authorities. Given the increasing frequency
of cyclones, floods, and other natural disasters, India is already placing a great
strain on its defense services – disrupting the training that is required to keep
them in form – and diverting them from their traditional duties. Such opportunity
costs have not been fully appreciated by the country’s policymakers.
The future can be seen in the borderlands of India and Bangladesh. For many
years, India has been fighting a losing battle against incursions of narcotics,
smuggling, and people it calls “illegal economic migrants”—Bangladeshis
crossing the border in search of a better life. India’s response to the incursions
has been to build a 2,500 mile fence between the two countries at a cost of up to
US$ 1.2 billion. 5 If a fence is India’s response to a few hundred thousand people
illegally crossing borders, what will its response be when there are massive
climate-induced movements of people across borders? Both India and its
neighbors are vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather events—
Bangladesh catastrophically so. It is estimated that rising sea levels and water
shortages will displace about 125 million people living along the coasts of both
countries by the end of the century. 6 Will a fence suffice then? Probably not.
Bangladesh provides arguably the most vivid example of how climate risks
should give pause to India’s policymakers. Climate change is, however, still
being conceived in traditional environmental terms, not as a complex,
geostrategic issue that will have impacts on multiple levels and could
fundamentally alter the balance of power internally as well as internationally. 7 In
other words, the issue is not being conceived as climate security.
The adage coined by Sir David King that climate change will redraw borders
appears not to have sunken in: India is already engaged in border conflicts or
security issues with at least three of its neighbors (Pakistan, Bangladesh, and
China) which has led to tensions in the region, communal conflict, and drains on
the national exchequer. Another crucial set of lessons that have not sunken in are
the findings of a committee of retired US military officials that studied the
relevance of climate change to the US’s strategic and security interests. The
conclusions drawn by this landmark study should make compelling reading for
India’s policymakers:
5 Prasad, Raekha. “India Builds a 2,500-mile Barrier to Rival the Great Wall of China”. The Times, 28 December
2005, at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article782933.ece#.
6 Chella Rajan, Sudhir. Blue Alert - Climate Migrants in South Asia: Estimates and Solutions (Bangalore:
Greenpeace India Society, March 2008).
7 Mabey, Nick. Delivering Climate Security: International Security Responses to a Climate Changed World.
Whitehall Paper 69 (London: Royal United Services Institute, 2009).