fixed unit price simulation for disposal of spent fuel ... - Greenpeace UK

Research Report
Model Parameter Initial Value Technical Comment
Spent Fuel Proportion of
Repository Cost
Engineering Scaling Factor
for Bigger Repository
50% FUPSIM's calculation algorithms separate the lifecycle
cost of spent fuel disposal and ILW disposal, in order to
calculate just the extra (marginal) cost of adding more
spent fuel. Nirex Technical Note 484432 provided to
CoRWM in September 2005 calculated £5,035m for a
dedicated SF/HLW repository and £10,100m for shared
co-located SF/HLW/ILW repository. This implies that
the SF/HLW proportion of the total cost of an NDA
shared repository is approximately 50%. (Put another
way, a dedicated commercial repository for new nuclear
build spent fuel could be built at about half the cost of a
shared public-private NDA repository). FUPSIM allows
the spent fuel proportion of the repository lifecycle cost
to be varied from zero up to 100%.
0.6 FUPSIM estimates the approximate cost of a larger repository
to dispose of extra spent fuel using an algorithm
based on a power law equation with an engineering scaling
factor. The method is based on the six-tenths rule of
cost estimation and was used by Ontario Power Generation
(OPG) to estimate geological repository disposal
costs for NWMO in Canada. The FUPSIM scaling factor
exponent is initially 0.6, well known as the six-tenthsrule
in process engineering. The scaling factor is usually
in the range from 0.3 to 1.0, but experience in the process
industry shows the average is close to 0.6 for most
situations. The margin of error of the cost estimate using
this method is typically plus or minus 20%. The method
is ideally suited to calculating small marginal size increases,
provided that scaling is not extrapolated too far
beyond the reference Base Case (the NDA historic spent
fuel Base Case is currently 8,200 tU). FUPSIM allows
engineering scale factors up to 3.0.
Jackson Consulting 23