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Review of prices for the Water Administration Ministerial Corporation

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B Summary <strong>of</strong> NOW’s submission to <strong>the</strong> Issues Paper<br />

B.6 Consumption <strong>for</strong>ecasts and entitlement basis<br />

B.6.1<br />

Consumption <strong>for</strong>ecasts <strong>for</strong> regulated rivers<br />

In <strong>the</strong> 2006 Determination, IPART applied long-term extraction <strong>for</strong>ecasts extracted<br />

from NOW’s Integrated Quantity and Quality Model (IQQM). At that time, IPART<br />

decided that, given deficiencies in metering data, IQQM data was more accurate than<br />

State <strong>Water</strong>’s in<strong>for</strong>mation on actual consumption/extraction.<br />

Based on advice received from <strong>the</strong> Centre <strong>for</strong> International Economics (CIE) and in<br />

conjunction with State <strong>Water</strong>, NOW argued that consumption <strong>for</strong>ecasts <strong>for</strong> regulated<br />

rivers should be based on <strong>the</strong> average <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> extractions from <strong>the</strong> last 15 years. This<br />

was because this method:<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

is likely to be more accurate<br />

accounts <strong>for</strong> climate change<br />

reduces price volatility between price determinations<br />

will allow low recent consumption to be better reflected in <strong>prices</strong>.<br />

We note that:<br />

<br />

<br />

<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> Final Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> State <strong>Water</strong> Determination 2010, IPART decided to use<br />

a 20-year moving average <strong>of</strong> IQQM and actual (or metered) extractions to <strong>for</strong>ecast<br />

water consumption <strong>for</strong> regulated rivers<br />

consumption <strong>for</strong>ecasts will not be relevant if IPART adopts NOW’s preferred<br />

pricing structure <strong>of</strong> 100% fixed (per entitlement) charges.<br />

B.6.2<br />

Entitlement/consumption <strong>for</strong>ecasts <strong>for</strong> unregulated rivers and groundwater<br />

For <strong>the</strong> 2006 Determination, metered or o<strong>the</strong>r estimates <strong>of</strong> extractions were not<br />

available as a large number <strong>of</strong> licensees are unmetered. At that time, IQQM data was<br />

only available <strong>for</strong> a small number <strong>of</strong> unregulated rivers and groundwater sources.<br />

This continues to be <strong>the</strong> case. 218<br />

For <strong>the</strong> 2006 Determination, <strong>for</strong>ecasts were based on entitlements. In its 2009<br />

submission, NOW provided entitlement volumes <strong>for</strong> unregulated rivers and<br />

groundwater sources. It has not provided consumption <strong>for</strong>ecasts <strong>for</strong> unregulated<br />

rivers and groundwater sources.<br />

218 Email, Chris Ribbons, NOW, 3 February 2009.<br />

<strong>Review</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>prices</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Administration</strong> <strong>Ministerial</strong> <strong>Corporation</strong> IPART 247

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