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2 12 <br />
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1969~1989 20 100 <br />
1989 <br />
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20 80 <br />
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1 3 <br />
210 2 118.3 km<br />
12%2009 2422 558 714.85 ha <br />
500mm <br />
50mm 4 8<br />
1
1990 <br />
1<br />
1980~2009 <br />
2 (1980~2009 )<br />
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2004 3%2005 <br />
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2004 ~2009 2<br />
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200520072009<br />
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CD <br />
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Schultz [1999]<br />
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3 <br />
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[2008]<br />
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[2007] 邹 伟 [2008]<br />
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Saint-Paul (1992)Uhlig and Yanagawa (1996<br />
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ha ha kW <br />
kWh <br />
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0 4 <br />
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5 1999 <br />
2010 12 <br />
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1990 201012<br />
6 9 1<br />
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1990 2009 20 <br />
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Fixed-Effect Model 7 <br />
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2000induced technology innovation <br />
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RSQUARED 0.91 <br />
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POLICY <br />
POLICY <br />
POLICY <br />
POLICY <br />
<br />
(MECH)<br />
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7 <br />
7
LABOR1<br />
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1.20*10-6LABOR<br />
LABORLNLABOR<br />
LABOR<br />
AWLewis1954<br />
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IRER<br />
PEST<br />
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4. <br />
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(Granger causality test)<br />
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OLS<br />
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8 T.W.Schultz.op.cit., pp. 176-178<br />
8
POLICY1<br />
4<br />
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4 <br />
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1. Lewis W A Economic development with unlimited supplies of labor[J]The Manchester School of Economic and<br />
Social Studies195422(2)139 191<br />
2. Theodore.W.Schultz Transforming Traditional Agriculture, New Haven: Yale University Press196433-34.<br />
3. Theodore.W.Schultz Economic Growth and Agriculture, New York: MacGraw-Hill. 196865.<br />
4. Robert J. Barro Economic Growth,The MIT Press19985768.<br />
9
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10
2500<br />
2000<br />
1500<br />
1000<br />
<br />
500<br />
0<br />
2008<br />
2006<br />
2004<br />
2002<br />
2000<br />
1998<br />
1996<br />
1994<br />
1992<br />
1990<br />
1988<br />
1986<br />
1984<br />
1982<br />
1980<br />
1980~2009 <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
(<br />
ha)<br />
800<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
<br />
<br />
600<br />
<br />
<br />
500 <br />
<br />
400<br />
(<br />
)<br />
400<br />
300<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
0<br />
2008<br />
2006<br />
2004<br />
2002<br />
2000<br />
1998<br />
1996<br />
1994<br />
1992<br />
1990<br />
1988<br />
1986<br />
1984<br />
1982<br />
1980<br />
2 (1980~2009 )<br />
1 2 1990 2010 <br />
11
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