論文
論文
論文
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
2 12 <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
1969~1989 20 100 <br />
1989 <br />
<br />
20 80 <br />
<br />
1 3 <br />
210 2 118.3 km<br />
12%2009 2422 558 714.85 ha <br />
500mm <br />
50mm 4 8<br />
1
1990 <br />
1<br />
1980~2009 <br />
2 (1980~2009 )<br />
30 <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
2004 3%2005 <br />
50 <br />
<br />
<br />
2004 ~2009 2<br />
<br />
2 <br />
1 <br />
200520072009<br />
<br />
200720072008<br />
<br />
<br />
1 <br />
<br />
<br />
CD <br />
<br />
1 <br />
2 <br />
2
Schultz [1999]<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
3 <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
3
[2008]<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
[2007] 邹 伟 [2008]<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
E<br />
M<br />
MC+T<br />
MC<br />
MR=P<br />
<br />
3<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Saint-Paul (1992)Uhlig and Yanagawa (1996<br />
<br />
<br />
=<br />
4
3 <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
ha ha kW <br />
kWh <br />
<br />
<br />
0 4 <br />
<br />
<br />
1% <br />
5 1999 <br />
2010 12 <br />
<br />
3<br />
=, <br />
<br />
<br />
4 <br />
2002<br />
431<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
5 <br />
5
1990 201012<br />
6 9 1<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
2 <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
1990 2010 <br />
2 <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
6 <br />
<br />
6
******<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
1990 2009 20 <br />
<br />
Fixed-Effect Model 7 <br />
<br />
3 <br />
<br />
2000induced technology innovation <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
1<br />
RSQUARED 0.91 <br />
<br />
<br />
POLICY <br />
POLICY <br />
POLICY <br />
POLICY <br />
<br />
(MECH)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
7 <br />
7
LABOR1<br />
<br />
1.20*10-6LABOR<br />
LABORLNLABOR<br />
LABOR<br />
AWLewis1954<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
IRER<br />
PEST<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
4. <br />
<br />
(Granger causality test)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
OLS<br />
OLS<br />
<br />
8 T.W.Schultz.op.cit., pp. 176-178<br />
8
POLICY1<br />
4<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
4 <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
1. Lewis W A Economic development with unlimited supplies of labor[J]The Manchester School of Economic and<br />
Social Studies195422(2)139 191<br />
2. Theodore.W.Schultz Transforming Traditional Agriculture, New Haven: Yale University Press196433-34.<br />
3. Theodore.W.Schultz Economic Growth and Agriculture, New York: MacGraw-Hill. 196865.<br />
4. Robert J. Barro Economic Growth,The MIT Press19985768.<br />
9
2000 .<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
乔 <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
3 <br />
Model Model Model Model Model Model Model Model<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
******<br />
<br />
10
2500<br />
2000<br />
1500<br />
1000<br />
<br />
500<br />
0<br />
2008<br />
2006<br />
2004<br />
2002<br />
2000<br />
1998<br />
1996<br />
1994<br />
1992<br />
1990<br />
1988<br />
1986<br />
1984<br />
1982<br />
1980<br />
1980~2009 <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
(<br />
ha)<br />
800<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
<br />
<br />
600<br />
<br />
<br />
500 <br />
<br />
400<br />
(<br />
)<br />
400<br />
300<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
0<br />
2008<br />
2006<br />
2004<br />
2002<br />
2000<br />
1998<br />
1996<br />
1994<br />
1992<br />
1990<br />
1988<br />
1986<br />
1984<br />
1982<br />
1980<br />
2 (1980~2009 )<br />
1 2 1990 2010 <br />
11
Change language