TOWN OF CALEDON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS STUDY

TOWN OF CALEDON 

EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS 

STUDY 

SEPTEMBER, 2007 

(AS AMENDED FEBRUARY 11, 2010)

ADDENDUM REPORT 

SUMMARY OF CHANGES MADE TO THE SEPTEMBER, 2007 

TOWN OF CALEDON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS STUDY 

1. BACKGROUND 

The purpose of this addendum is to report on the changes made to the draft September, 2007 

Town of Caledon Employment Land Needs Study. These refinements collectively result from 

the consideration of comments received on the draft report since September, 2007 that were 

made by Town staff, Municipal Council, stakeholder groups and members of the public. 

2. TIMELINE 

The following provides a brief timeline of the key events which have occurred related to the 

Caledon Employment Land Needs Study since September, 2007. 

 

September 25, 2007 Council Meeting - Presentation given by Watson & Associates 

Economists Ltd. (W&A) regarding the key findings of the Draft September, 2007 Town of 

Caledon Employment Land Needs Study. 

 

 

November 12, 2007 Community Meeting – Presentation given by Watson & 

Associates Economists Ltd. (W&A) to members of the public and stakeholder groups 

regarding the key findings of the Draft September, 2007 Town of Caledon Employment 

Land Needs Study. 

February 19, 2008 Caledon Employment Lands Council Workshop – Key issues 

discussed include: 

o Input Received from November 12, 2007 Community Meeting; 

o Comments/Inquiries from Landowners and the Industrial Development 

Community; 

o Methodological Issues Related to Calculating Employment Land Needs; 

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\caledon\2009 Employment Land Needs Addendum 

Report\Addendum Report_Caledon Employment Land Needs Study_revised.docx

2. 

o The Impact of Low-Density Warehousing and Logistics Development on Forecast 

Employment Density Levels; and 

o Next Steps – Considerations. 

November 11, 2008 Caledon Employment Lands Council Workshop - In response to the 

comments received from Town staff, Municipal Council, stakeholder groups and members of the 

public, changes were made to the September 25, 2007 report where considered appropriate 

and presented to Council. Key refinements include: 

o Response to Comments Received from Landowners and the Industrial 

Development Community Regarding the Lack of Forecast Employment Land 

Needs for Bolton, Mayfield West, Tullamore and the Rural Area; 

o Results of the 2006 Census Employment Data; 

o Recent Development Trends on Employment Lands in Caledon; 

o Reduction to Forecast Average Density on Employment Lands; 

o Dry Industrial Land Needs; and 

o Revisions to Employment Land Needs Analysis. 

These refinements are summarized in the November 11, 2008 presentation (provided herein). 

The revised pages of the September, 2007 draft have also been provided as part of this 

addendum. 

3. REVISIONS TO THE SEPTEMBER, 2007 DRAFT 

EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS STUDY 

In consultation with Town staff the following pages of the September, 2007 report has been 

amended as follows: 

1. Executive Summary (pages iii, v, and vii) 

Changes made to reflect revisions to employment land needs in Chapter 7. 

2. Employment Land Supply (Chapter 5, page 5-3, Table 5-2a) 

 

Dry Industrial and General Industrial employment land supply mislabelled. 



3. 

Column labelled Gross vacant + Occupied re-labelled to Gross vacant + Net 

Occupied for Tables 5-2a through 5-2e. 

3. Employment Land Needs (Chapter 7, pages 7-3, 7-4, 7-5, 7-6, 7-8. 7-9, 7-12 and 7- 

13). For convenience, Chapter 7 is included in its entirety. 

Revisions are a result of a reduction in the average forecast employment density 

on employment lands in Mayfield West and Tullamore in response to recent 

market trends and anticipated development activity for these areas. 

Correction to employment land supply in the remaining rural area from 81 net 

acres (33 net Ha) to 61 net acres (25 net Ha). 

4. Conclusions (Chapter 8, pages 8-2, 8-4, 8-5). For convenience, Chapter 8 is 

included in its entirety. 

Changes made to reflect revisions to employment land needs in Chapter 7. 




EMPLOYMENT LAND 

NEEDS STUDY 

Council Workshop 

November 11, 2008

WATSON & ASSOCIATES 

Intro/Background 

OUTLINE 

Summary of Comments Received 

2006 Census Employment 

Recent Development Trends on 

Employment Lands in Caledon 

Revisions to Employment Land Needs 

Analysis 

1

Introduction 

Employment Land Needs Study Undertaken by Watson 

& Associates Economists Ltd. 

Objective of study is to analyze the adequacy of the 

existing employment land supply in Caledon and 

determine the need to designate new employment areas 

from 2008-2031. 

Draft study released September 25, 2007 and presented 

at the Public Information Meeting November 12, 2007. 

Council Workshop held on February 19, 2008. 

2


Bolton/South Albion 

• Recommended adjustments and feedback from 

landowner groups regarding draft employment land 

location options in Bolton South-Albion. 

Mayfield West 

• Additional employment lands are needed in Mayfield 

West prior to 2021. 

Tullamore 

• Additional Lands are needed in Tullamore on both 

east and west side of Airport Rd.


Victoria and Sandhill 

• Weston Consulting Group Inc. - Requesting and 

expansion to Victoria and Sandhill of 549 acres and 

24 acres, respectively. 

• Weston has provided a report by urbanMetrics titled 

“Dry Industrial Land Needs Analysis, Communities of 

Victoria and Sandhill.”


Region of Peel 

• No formal comments received to date. 

• Informal comments received from MKI (Region of 

Peel Consultant), including: 

Employment forecast appears aggressive; 

Mayfield West density assumptions appear high; 

and 

Annual employment absorption levels appear 

reasonable.


Caledon’s employment base (i.e. jobs in Caledon) 

reached 18,550 in mid 2006 (as per 2006 Census). 

This represents an increase of approx. 2,100 employees 

from 2001. 

Comparatively the 2006 Census employment number is 

2,350 jobs less than W&A’s 2006 estimate (20,890) as 

per Sept. 2007 Draft Report.


Components of 1996-2001 vs. 2001-2006 Employment 

Growth in Caledon 

1996-2001 

11% 

65% 

24% 

2,945 

New 

jobs 

2001-2006 

14% 

22% 

64% 

2,110 

New 

jobs 

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 

Primary/Work at Home Industrial Commercial/Institutional



Recent demand for employment lands in Bolton and 

Tullamore have been very strong. 

From June 2007 to April 2008 the Town has absorbed 

approx. 106 net acres (43 Ha) of employment on 

employment lands. 

The majority of recent development activity on the 

Town’s employment lands has been dominated by the 

warehousing/distribution and transportation sector. 

• e.g. AMB, Giffels, Solmar, Pillsworth, Great West Life (GWL).



Bolton Industrial Area 

- Supply of developable 

employment lands, as 

of October 2008.



Based on discussions with Town staff, 70% of the vacant 

land inventory (approx. 100 Ha) in Mayfield West has 

been purchased by land owners with interest in 

developing this area for warehousing and distribution 

purposes. 

Interest also exists to develop the remaining 30% for 

similar purposes.

Revisions to Employment Land 

No adjustments are recommended with respect to the 

Town’s long term employment forecast. 

The long term employment growth outlook should be 

continually monitored every five years. 

Needs Analysis 

Long Term Employment Forecast


Employment Density on Employment Lands 

In accordance with recent development activity, 

stakeholder comments and anticipated development 

activity on vacant employment lands, W&A has 

moderately reduced the long term average employment 

density as follows: 


Sept. 2007 Draft Report Recommended Final Report Sept. 2007 Draft Report Recommended 

Final Report 

Settlement Area (Emp./Net Acre) 

(Emp./Net Hectare) 

Bolton South-Albion 12 12 30 30 

Mayfield West 18 12 44 30 

Tullamore 7 5 18 12 

Remaining Rural 3 3 8 8 

Caledon Total 1 13 11 31 26 

1. Overall employment density is based on a weighted average.


Further efforts are required by the Town, Region and 

Province with respect to implementation of greenfield 

density targets in Peel Region. 


Employment Density on Employment Lands 

The revised forecast density levels on employment lands 

represent a “best fit” between market demand and local, 

Regional and Provincial policy objectives.



Dry Industrial Land Needs 

A total of 144 acres (58 Ha) of employment land are 

currently designated as “dry industrial land” in Victoria 

and Bolton. 

Over the past four years there has been no demand for 

dry industrial land in Caledon. 

Accordingly, there does not appear to be an immediate 

need to expand settlement area boundaries in Victoria 

and Sandhill to provide additional supply.



Dry Industrial Land Needs 

Furthermore, there are a number of other factors which 

would suggest that it is premature to designate dry 

additional industrial lands in Caledon at this time, 

including: 

• OP Policy Objectives - Caledon OP (Section 5.10.7) 

“Industrial/Commercial Centres will serve a 

complementary role to other settlements and will 

provide, at a small scale, a supportive function to 

the Rural Service Centres for industrial and 

commercial development.” (underlining added)


The Town should revisit the role of Industrial/Commercial 

Centres (i.e. Victoria and Sandhill) for dry industrial lands 

in accordance with local needs and broader Town-wide 

growth objectives during subsequent comprehensive 

reviews. 


Dry Industrial Land Needs (Con’t) 

• Uncertainty with respect to the proposed routing of 

the East-West GTA Highway corridor. 

• Impact on Caledon’s role with respect to greenfield 

density targets.


A shortfall of 1,110 gross acres (excluding environmental 

lands) of employment lands is forecast by 2031. 

This represents an increase of 370 gross acres (150 Ha) 

vs. Sept. 2007 Draft Report. 


Gross Acres 

200 

0 

-200 

-400 

-600 

-800 

-1000 

Surplus/Shortfall of Employment Lands by 

Settlement Area 

2006-2031 

-620 

-290 

-210 

10 

-1200 

South Albion-Bolton Mayfield West Tullamore 

Remaining Rural Total Town of Caledon 

-1,110


Revised annual employment lands absorption forecast 

(increase of approx. 15 gross acres per year as per 

Sept. 2007 Draft Report). 


Net Acres 

120.0 

100.0 

80.0 

60.0 

40.0 

20.0 

78 

89 

TOWN OF CALEDON, ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT LANDS ABSORPTION, 1997-2031 

Actual Absorption 

104 +100 Acres 

23 

18 

101 

16 

41 

18 17 

81 81 81 81 81 

85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 

60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 

0.0 

Remaining Rural Tullamore Mayfield West Bolton Historical Average (1997-2006) 

Years

AMENDED PAGES 


Report\divider.docx

(iii) 

Demand for Employment on Employment Lands 

1. Forecast demand for employment on employment lands in Caledon is well above 

historical averages (Table 7-1b). Over the end-2006 to mid-2031 planning period, the 

Town of Caledon is forecast to add a total of 19,174 employees on employment lands, or 

767 employees per year. During the 1996 to 2006 period, the Town averaged 

approximately 430 additional employees on employment lands per year. 

2. Approximately 47% of total forecast employment land absorption has been 

allocated to the South Albion-Bolton Industrial Area, while 33% and 17% has been 

allocated to Mayfield West and Tullamore, respectively. The remaining 3% has been 

forecast throughout the remaining rural area. 

3. With respect to land demand, the Town of Caledon is forecast to absorb an annual 

average of 95 gross acres per year (38 gross ha/year) from 2006 to 2031. 

4. Average annual absorption rates are forecast to diminish over the forecast period, which 

is consistent with the employment growth trends for the Town, Region of Peel, and 

Province. For Caledon, this is largely a result of a declining employment growth rate and 

increasing employment density over the forecast period. 

Employment Land Needs 

The following summarizes long term land needs for employment on employment lands based on 

forecast demand and net developable supply within the Town of Caledon by settlement area. 

Recommended future employment land needs (i.e. expansion of designated land) have been 

calculated in gross acres/hectares (i.e. they include provisions for roads, easements, corridors, 

stormwater ponds). However, due to uncertainty with respect to location options for future 

employment lands designations, environmental lands have not been included in the gross 

employment land area calculations. 

The following key findings are provided with respect to future employment land needs by 

settlement area within the Town of Caledon. 

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 

H:\caledon\2009 Employment Land Needs Addendum 

Report\Employment Land Needs Report_ammended as of November 13 2009.doc

(v) 

2. Mayfield West 

2.1 Within Mayfield West, a total employment land supply of 358 net acres (145 net ha) has 

been proposed in the Mayfield West Secondary Plan, on the east side of the proposed 

Highway 410 extension. 

2.2 Based on an average absorption of 24 gross acres per year (10 gross ha/year), the 

designated employment lands within the Mayfield Secondary Plan area can 

accommodate future demand beyond 2021. However, in order to ensure that longterm 

demand is not unduly constrained within the Mayfield West, it is recommended 

that additional lands are designated in Mayfield West during the post 2021 

planning period, either through an expansion of the existing employment area 

located on the east side of Highway 410, or through the establishment of a new 

employment area on the west side of Highway 410. 

2.3 Over the longer-term (i.e. 2021-2031) a minimum of an additional 230 net or 290 

gross acres (93 net or 117 gross ha) of employment lands are recommended for 

the Mayfield West area. It is recommended that medium to long term employment 

land needs are maintained at least every five years in Mayfield West. For example, 

an increase in forecast employment land absorption and/or decreased 

employment density levels could result in greater long term employment land 

needs for this area. 

3. Tullamore and the Remaining Rural Area 

3.1 A total of 148 vacant net acres (60 ha) of serviced employment lands have been 

identified within the Tullamore Industrial Area. Based on an average absorption of 12 

net acres (5 ha) per year in this area, a minimum additional 150 net or 210 gross 

acres (60 net or 85 gross ha) of employment lands are recommended prior to 

2031. 

3.2 A total of 61 net gross developable acres (25 net ha) of serviced employment lands have 

been identified within the remaining rural area. Based on an average of 2 net acres 

per year (1 net ha) in this area, the currently designated supply of employment 

lands is adequate. 




Table ES-1 summarizes the Town’s employment land need requirements by Settlement Area 

from 2006 to 2031. 

(vii) 

TABLE ES-1 

EMPLOYMENT LAND REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TOWN OF CALEDON (NET ACRES), 2006-2031 

South Albion-Bolton A (Table 7-3) B (Table 5-2) C = B - A 

Year Demand (Net Acres) 1 Supply (Net Acres) 2 Net Surplus / Shortfall 

Net Employment Land 

Needs (Rounded) 

2006-2021 689 398 -291 -290 

2006-2031 864 398 -467 -470 

Mayfield West 0 

2006-2021 288 358 71 70 

2006-2031 592 358 -234 -230 

Tullamore 0 

2006-2021 206 148 -58 -60 

2006-2031 302 148 -154 -150 

Remaining 2006-2011 Rural 14 61 470 

50 

2006-2021 35 61 26 30 

2006-2031 56 61 5 0 

Total Town of Caledon 0 

2006-2021 1,217 965 -253 -250 

2006-2031 1,814 965 -850 -850 

South Albion-Bolton A B C = B - A 

Demand (Gross 

Gross Surplus / Shortfall 

Year 

Acres) 1 Supply (Gross Acres) 2 (Rounded) 

Gross Employment Land 


2006-2021 918 530 -388 -390 

2006-2031 1,153 530 -623 -620 


2006-2021 360 448 89 90 

2006-2031 740 448 -292 -290 

Tullamore 0 0 

2006-2021 275 197 -77 -80 

2006-2031 402 197 -205 -210 

Remaining Rural 0 

2006-2021 47 81 34 30 

2006-2031 75 81 7 10 


2006-2021 1,599 1,257 -343 -340 

2006-2031 2,370 1,257 -1,113 -1110 

Sources 

TABLE ES-1 

EMPLOYMENT LAND REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TOWN OF CALEDON (GROSS ACRES), 2006-2031 

1. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. July, 2007. 

2. As provided by the Town of Caledon Economic Development Department. Based on a 75% net to gross ratio (80% for Mayfield West). 




TABLE 5-2a 


VACANT EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY (ACRES) 

(July, 2007) 

Community 

OP Schedule Designation 

Net 

Occupied 

Gross 

Vacant 

Net 

Vacant 2 

Gross 

Vacant + 

Net 

Occupied 

Land 

Vacancy 

Adjustment 3 

Total Net Vacant 

Employment 

Lands Adjusted 

for Land Vacancy 

Bolton C General Industrial 302 44.6 33 347 17 16 

Bolton C Dry Industrial 1 111 521.0 391 632 32 359 

Bolton C Prestige Industrial 351 56.9 43 408 20 22 

Mayfield West D General Industrial 0 159.6 120 160 8 112 

Mayfield West D Prestige Industrial 0 352.5 264 353 18 247 

Tullamore N Prestige Industrial 8 50.3 38 58 3 35 

Tullamore N General Industrial 27 163.5 123 191 10 113 

Victoria Figure 16 Industrial Policy Area 0 87.0 65 87 4 61 

Total Total 800 1,435 1,077 2,235 112 965 

Source: Town of Caledon Economic Development Dept. July, 2007. 

1. Extension of services for employment lands which are identified as "dry" would be developer driven. 

2. Includes changes to designated lands from OPA 215. 

3. 5% of total occupied + vacant. 

TABLE 5-2b 

BOLTON 

EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY - VACANT/OCCUPIED (ACRES) 

Community OP Schedule Designation 

Net 

Occupied 

Gross 

Vacant 

Net 

Vacant 2 

Gross 

Vacant + 

Net 

Occupied 

Land 

Vacancy 

Adjustment 


Employment 



Bolton C General Industrial 302 45 33 347 17 16 

Bolton C Dry Industrial 111 57 43 632 20 22 

Bolton C Prestige Industrial 351 521 391 408 32 359 

Bolton Total 765 622 467 1,387 69 398 

Source: Town of Caledon Economic Development Dept. July, 2007. 

TABLE 5-2c 

MAYFIELD WEST 



Net 

Occupied 

Gross 

Vacant 

Net 

Vacant 2 

Gross 

Vacant + 

Net 

Occupied 

Land 

Vacancy 

Adjustment 


Employment 



Mayfield West General Industrial 0 160 120 120 8 112 

Mayfield West Prestige Industrial 0 353 264 264 18 247 

Mayfield West Total 0 512 384 384 26 358 

TABLE 5-2d 

TULLAMORE 



Net 

Occupied 

Gross 

Vacant 

Net 

Vacant 2 

Gross 

Vacant + 

Net 

Occupied 

Land 

Vacancy 

Adjustment 


Employment 



Tullamore Prestige Industrial 8 50 38 46 3 35 

Tullamore General Industrial 27 164 123 150 10 113 

Tullamore Total 35 214 160 195 12 148 

TABLE 5-2e 

REMAINING RURAL 



Net 

Occupied 

Gross 

Vacant 

Net 

Vacant 2 

Gross 

Vacant + 

Net 

Occupied 

Land 

Vacancy 

Adjustment 


Employment 



Remaining Rural Industrial Policy Area 0 87 65 65 4 61 

Remaining Rural Total 0 87 65 65 4 61 


H:\caledon\2009 Employment Land Needs Addendum Report\ 

Employment Forecast by Settlement Area_Oct 08.xls

7. TOWN OF CALEDON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS, 

2006-2031 




7-1 

7. TOWN OF CALEDON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS, 

2006-2031 

7.1 Introduction 

Chapter 7 summarizes total employment land needs within the Town of Caledon to 2031 based 

on the employment supply and demand analysis provided in Chapters 5 and 6. This analysis 

identifies additional employment lands (i.e. expansion areas) in gross acres/hectares which are 

required outside of currently designated employment areas for South Albion-Bolton, Mayfield 

West and Tullamore. 

7.2 Employment on Employment Lands 

In generating employment land area requirements for the Town of Caledon, the following steps 

have been undertaken: 

1. Remove Work at Home Employment and No Fixed Place of Work Employment 

As identified in Chapter 6, employment growth has been categorized into four broad categories 

including; primary, industrial, commercial, and institutional based on 2001 Census data. These 

categories have been aggregated from specific employment sub-classifications based on the 

North American Industrial Classification (NAIC) system. 1 As a first step, all estimated “Work at 

Home” has been excluded from the employment land needs analysis, as these employees do 

not require land in the Town’s designated employment areas. “No Fixed Place of Work 

Employees”, e.g. landscape contractors, traveling salespersons, independent truck drivers, etc. 

are also excluded from the base employment figures as provided in Tables 6-1 and 6-2. Similar 

to Work at Home employees, these employees are not anticipated to have an impact on longterm 

employment land needs in Caledon. 

1 Employment by NIAC has been converted to Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) to be consistent 

with historical employment data (i.e. 1991 and 1996). 




2. Determine the amount of industrial, commercial and institutional (ICI) employees 

to be employed on employment lands 

7-2 

As previously identified, current definitions of employment lands have broadened to include a 

number of commercial uses (and to a lesser extent institutional uses) in addition to traditional 

industrial development. For example, a number commercial and institutional uses (as defined by 

Statistics Canada) are permitted on employment lands within the Town of Caledon, such as 

business offices (i.e. finance and insurance industries, dry cleaning or laundry facilities, motor 

vehicle repairs shops, restaurants, gas stations, places of worship, places of assembly, etc.). 1 

Alternatively, a small portion of industrial employment (e.g. prestige office) is anticipated to 

locate on commercially designated zoned lands, i.e. business office and warehousing (permitted 

on Bolton Highway Commercial Zones). Actual data is not available from the Town of Caledon 

with respect to the precise amount and breakdown of existing ICI employment on employment 

lands. 

Accordingly, Watson & Associates has relied on data sources in other GTAH 

municipalities to develop a reasonable conversion of future employment by ICI sector to 

employment on employment lands. 2 

assumed by ICI on employment lands over the 2006 to 2031 period: 

The following employment percentages have been 

TABLE 7-1a 

EMPLOYMENT BY ICI ON CALEDON 

EMPLOYMENT LANDS 

Employment 

Sector 

Employment on 

Employment Lands 

Industrial 97% 

Commercial 25% 

Institutional 10% 

Source: Watson and Associates. 2007. 

Based on permitted uses in Caledon 

Comprehensive Zoning By-Law 2006- 

50, plus review of employment areas in 

other GTA jurisdictions. 

1 A detailed list of commercial/institutional uses permitted on industrial lands, as per Town of Caledon 

Zoning By-Law 2006-50, is provided in Appendix C. 

2 It is important to note that Watson & Associates does not provide a specific employment category 

related to “Major Office” Employment (i.e. freestanding office buildings 10,000 m 2 or greater, or with 500 

jobs or more), as provided in the 2005 Growth Outlook for the GGH. For the purposes of this analysis, the 

majority of potential major office employment in Caledon would be located on employment lands. 




7-3 

Table 7-1b summarizes Watson’s forecast of employment on employment lands over the shortterm 

and long-term forecast period, based on the conversion factors assigned to employment by 

ICI, as set out in Table 7-a. 

TABLE 7-1b 

EMPLOYMENT ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS, 2006-2031 

Percent Total Employment Growth on Employment 

Employment Growth by Sector 

Employment on 

Lands 

Employment by ICI 2006-2011 2006-2021 2006-2031 Employment Lands 2006-2011 2006-2021 2006-2031 

Primary 10 63 169 0% 0 0 0 

Work @ Home 868 2,030 3,544 0% 0 0 0 

Industrial 3988 11,894 18,598 97% 3,868 11,537 18,040 

Commercial 715 2,185 3,941 25% 179 546 985 

Institutional 351 909 1,479 10% 35 91 148 

Total 5,931 17,081 27,731 4,082 12,174 19,174 

Source: Watson & Associates, 2008. 

3. Determine the Density of Employment on Employment Lands 

Over the forecast period, there are a number of factors which are anticipated to influence the 

physical nature of development on employment lands across the Region of Peel. For example, 

it is foreseeable that higher density on employment lands could be achieved throughout the 

forecast period in the Region’s larger urban municipalities, largely due to the tightening of 

available employment land supply, increasing pressure for intensification. An increasing trend 

of office commercial uses in newer business parks is also likely to provide higher densities in 

employment areas with direct 400 series highway exposure, such as Mayfield West, when 

compared to older, heavier, traditional industrial areas. Furthermore, increases in industrial land 

values in Caledon (which have recently been experienced in South Albion-Bolton) will also tend 

to improve land utilization and increase employment density. On the other hand, existing trends 

within the Peel municipalities of Caledon and Brampton indicate that overall employment density 

has been, and will continue to be, heavily influenced by an increasing percentage of landextensive 

employment within the distribution and warehousing sector, which will tend to counter 

trends towards higher employment density. 

Given the above factors, forecast employment land density within the Town of Caledon is 

anticipated to be below many of the larger urban GTAH municipalities such as Brampton, 

Mississauga, and Vaughan, which range from approximately 14 to 24 employees per net acre 




(35 to 60 employees per net ha). The following employment densities have been assumed over 

the forecast period for the Town of Caledon by settlement area: 

7-4 

TABLE 7-2 

FORECAST EMPLOYMENT DENSITIES ON EMPLOYMENT 

LANDS, 2006-2031 


Employment 

Density 

(Employees per 

Net Acre) 

Employment 

Density (Employees 

per Net Hectare) 

South Albion-Bolton 12.0 29.7 

Mayfield West 12.0 29.7 

Remaining Rural 3.3 8.2 

Tullamore 5.0 12.4 

Total 1 10.6 26.1 


4. Determine Net Developable Employment Land Supply over both Short-Term and 

Long-Term Forecast Period (Adjusted for Land Vacancy) 

Chapter 5 provided a detailed analysis of the gross and net developable employment land 

supply (i.e. excluding all environmental lands, internal roads, corridors, easements and 

stormwater ponds) for the Town of Caledon by Employment Area as of November, 2006. In 

summary, the Town has a total net developable employment land supply of 965 net acres (390 

net ha). The employment land supply analysis provided in Chapter 5 identified that within the 

Bolton Industrial Area, a large percentage of the identified “vacant” employment land supply is 

not readily available (i.e. lands have been sold and/or are not currently serviced). Accordingly, 

the short-term available employment land supply within Bolton has been reduced to 170 net 

acres (69 ha) (as per Table 5-3). 

5. Provide a Provision for Market Choice Over the Long-Term Land Needs Forecast 

Chapter 5 provided a detailed analysis with respect to the need to include a market choice 

provision, in order to ensure proper market functioning. As demonstrated within the Bolton 

Industrial Area, a significant portion of the Town’s vacant supply is presently not serviced, has 

been sold, or is currently tied up by existing land owners (i.e. being held for future expansion). 




7-5 

In addition, several of the remaining parcels of land which are available for development are 

small, poorly configured, and fragmented. While this observation applies specifically to the 

South Albion-Bolton Industrial Area, over time it is foreseeable that the Town’s other 

employment areas (i.e. Mayfield West, and Tullamore) will also begin to exhibit these 

characteristics. In order to allow for proper market functioning, it is our opinion that the Town 

should ensure that a minimum five-year supply of serviced and available employment lands (by 

various sizes, zoning and locations) is available at all times throughout the forecast period. This 

is to ensure that the Town’s employment demand is not unduly constrained by a lack of 

appropriately designated supply. Over the forecast period, it is recommended that the Town 

review its inventory of serviced employment lands every five years. 

6. Calculate Total Demand for Employment Lands Employment 

Table 7-3 summarizes forecast demand for employment lands employment and associated land 

area requirements by Settlement Area from 2006 to 2031, in accordance with the assumptions 

set out through steps 1 through 5. Key observations include: 

 

Over the 2006 to 2031 planning period, the Town of Caledon is forecast to add a total of 

19,174 employees on employment lands; 

 

Based on future absorption potential, approximately 47% of total forecast employment 

land has been allocated to the South Albion-Bolton Industrial Area, while 33% and 17% 

has been allocated to Mayfield West and Tullamore, respectively. The remaining 3% has 

been forecast throughout the remaining rural area; 

 

With respect to land demand, the Town of Caledon is forecast to absorb an annual 

average of 72.6 net acres per year (29.3 net ha/year) from 2006 to 2031 (72.6 acres X 

25 years = 1,815 (Table 7-3)). 1 Bolton and Mayfield West, the Town’s largest future 

employment areas, are forecast to absorb 80% of the total Town-wide employment 

lands forecast. 

1 Absorption figures have been rounded. 




TABLE 7-3 


FORECAST EMPLOYMENT DEMAND ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS, 2006-2031 


Industrial 

Employees on 

Employment 

Lands 

Commercial/ Institutional 

Employees on 


2006-2011 

Total Employment 

on Employment 

Lands Employees/ Net Acre 

Employees/ Net 

Ha 

Total 

Employment 

Land Needs 

(Net Acres) 

Total 

Employment 

Land Needs 

(Net Ha) 

Annual 

Employment Land 

Absorption (Net 

Acres) 

Annual 

Employment 

Land Absorption 

(Net Ha) 

South Albion-Bolton 2,813 155 2,969 11 27 270 109 54 22 

Caledon East 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Mayfield West 733 40 773 12 30 64 26 13 5 

Remaining Rural 45 2 47 3 8 14 6 3 1 

Tullamore 277 15 293 5 12 59 24 12 5 

Total 1 3,868 214 4,082 10 25 407 165 81 33 


Industrial 

Employees on 

Employment 

Lands 


Employees on 


2006-2021 


on Employment 

Lands Employees/Net Acre 


Ha 

Total 

Employment 

Land Needs 

(Net Acres) 

Total 

Employment 

Land Needs 

(Net Ha) 

Annual 



Acres) 

Annual 

Employment 


(Net Ha) 


Caledon East 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Mayfield West 3,271 181 3,451 12 30 288 116 19 8 


Tullamore 976 54 1,030 5 12 206 83 14 6 

Total 1 11,537 637 12,174 11 26 1,217 493 81 33 


Industrial 

Employees on 

Employment 

Lands 


Employees on 



on Employment 

Lands Employees/Net Acre 


Ha 

Total 

Employment 

Land Needs 

(Net Acres) 

Total 

Employment 

Land Needs 

(Net Ha) 

Annual 



Acres) 

Annual 

Employment 


(Net Ha) 


Caledon East 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Mayfield West 6,666 440 7,105 12 30 592 240 24 10 


Tullamore 1,421 88 1,509 5 12 302 122 12 5 

Total 1 18,040 1,133 19,174 11 26 1,814 734 73 29 


1. Total employment density is based on a weighted average. 

2006-2031 


7-7 

Average annual absorption rates are forecast to diminish over the forecast period, which is 

consistent with the employment growth trends for the Town, Region of Peel, and Province. For 

Caledon, this is largely a result of a declining employment growth rate and increasing 

employment density over the forecast period. Figure 7-1 summarizes forecast annual 

employment lands absorption for the Town of Caledon from 2006 to 2031. 

7.3 Employment Land Needs within the Town of Caledon, 2006 to 

2031 

Tables 7-4a and 7-4b summarize short and long-term land needs for employment on 

employment lands based on forecast demand and net developable supply within the Town of 

Caledon by Settlement Area. The analysis identifies additional employment lands, i.e. 

employment expansions areas) which will need to be designated by the Town outside of current 

urban boundaries in order for supply to match anticipated demand. Recommended future 

employment land needs have been calculated in gross acres/hectares (i.e. they include 

provisions for roads, easements, corridors, stormwater ponds). However, due to the uncertainty 

with respect to location options for future employment lands designations, environmental lands 

have not been included in the gross employment land area calculations. The following key 

findings are provided with respect to future employment land needs by Employment Area within 

the Town of Caledon: 




Net Acres 

120.0 

100.0 

80.0 

60.0 

40.0 

20.0 

78 

89 

FIGURE 7-1 

TOWN OF CALEDON, ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT LANDS ABSORPTION, 1997-2031 

23 18 

101 

16 

41 

104 

Actual Forecast 

18 17 

81 81 81 81 81 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 

0.0 

Years 

Remaining Rural Tullamore Mayfield West Bolton Historical Average (1997-2006) 




TABLE 7-4a 

EMPLOYMENT LAND REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TOWN OF CALEDON (NET ACRES), 2006-2031 

South Albion-Bolton A (Table 7-3) B (Table 5-2) C = B - A 

Year Demand (Net Acres) 1 Supply (Net Acres) 2 Net Surplus / Shortfall 

Net Employment Land 


2006-2021 689 398 -291 -290 

2006-2031 864 398 -467 -470 


2006-2021 288 358 71 70 

2006-2031 592 358 -234 -230 

Tullamore 0 

2006-2021 206 148 -58 -60 

2006-2031 302 148 -154 -150 


2006-2021 35 61 26 30 

2006-2031 56 61 5 0 


2006-2021 1,217 965 -253 -250 

2006-2031 1,814 965 -850 -850 

South Albion-Bolton A B C = B - A 

Year 

Demand (Gross 

Gross Surplus / Shortfall 

Acres) 1 Supply (Gross Acres) 2 (Rounded) 

Gross Employment Land 


2006-2021 918 530 -388 -390 

2006-2031 1,153 530 -623 -620 


2006-2021 360 448 89 90 

2006-2031 740 448 -292 -290 

Tullamore 0 0 

2006-2021 275 197 -77 -80 

2006-2031 402 197 -205 -210 


2006-2021 47 81 34 30 

2006-2031 75 81 7 10 


2006-2021 1,599 1,257 -343 -340 

2006-2031 2,370 1,257 -1,113 -1,110 

Sources 

TABLE 7-4b 

EMPLOYMENT LAND REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TOWN OF CALEDON (GROSS ACRES), 2006-2031 

1. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. July, 2007. 

2. As provided by the Town of Caledon Economic Development Department. Based on a 75% net to gross ratio (80% for Mayfield West). 




7-10 

South Albion-Bolton Industrial Area 

 

Figure 7-2 graphically illustrates the Town’s total “market ready” employment land 

supply based on the short-term (i.e. 2006 to 2011) absorption forecast for South Albion- 

Bolton. The results of Figure 7-2 demonstrate that the supply of market ready 

employment lands is constrained, as it provides less than the recommended minimum 

market choice allowance of 240 net acres (97 net ha). Under the current supply 

conditions, the Bolton Industrial Area has less than a three year supply of market ready 

employment lands, assuming that the identified sites within this category are absorbed. 

As previously identified, the lack of larger sites (i.e. greater than 15 acres) within this 

area has impeded recent absorption levels. 

 

Over the longer term (i.e. 2021 and 2031), it is assumed that all identified developable 

employment lands (398 net acres or 161 net ha 1 ) within the Bolton Industrial Area will be 

serviced and absorbed. Over the long-term planning period (i.e. 2031) a minimum 

additional 470 net or 620 gross acres (190 net or 251 gross ha) of employment lands are 

required to accommodate forecast demand. 

 

Location options for future growth (i.e. expansion of designated land) will depend on 

several factors including, land availability and agglomeration potential (i.e. potential to 

assemble employment lands of critical mass), abutting land uses, environmental 

constraints, traffic impacts, proximity to services, proximity to existing designated 

employment areas, fiscal impact, price, market potential and access/exposure to 

highways/arterial roads. While it is beyond to scope of this study to provide conclusions 

with respect to future location options for growth, the following recommendations are 

provided from a economic and market perspective, the location of a future employment 

lands expansion area within the South Albion-Bolton Industrial Area should give 

consideration to a number of market factors, including (but not limited to) the following: 

o availability of contiguous lands which allows for the designation of an 

employment land area of approximately 630 gross acres; 

o potential to maximize frontage and exposure onto existing arterial roads; 

o land availability for future expansion potential post 2031; 

1 Assuming 5% adjustment for land vacancy. 




FIGURE 7-2 

SHORT-TERM SUPPLY OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS IN BOLTON 

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\caledon\2009 Employment Land Needs Addendum Report\Employment Land Needs Report_ammended as of November 13 2009.doc 

7-11 

500 

450 

400 

350 

Total Net Supply of Employment Lands in Bolton (2006-2011) 

Adequate Market Choice Provision (5 Years 

Average Demand) 

Net Acres 

300 

250 

200 

150 

Shortfall A - Difference Between Total Supply 

and "Market Ready" Supply 

Shortfall B - Difference Between Total Net 

Supply vs. Market Choice Provision 

100 

50 

Total "Market Ready" Supply of Bolton 

Employment Lands (2006-2011) 

0 

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 

"Market Ready" Net Supply Total Years Net Supply Market Choice Provision

7-12 

o the physical connectivity of the proposed area to the existing lands within the 

South Albion-Bolton Industrial Area; and 

o proximity to existing and proposed 400 series highways. 

Mayfield West 

 

Within Mayfield West, a total employment land supply of 358 net acres (145 net ha) has 

been identified in the Mayfield West Secondary Plan, on the east side of the proposed 


 

Based on an average absorption of 24 net acres per year (10 net ha/year), the 


accommodate future demand beyond 2021. In order to ensure that long-term demand is 

not unduly constrained within the Mayfield West (during the post 2021 planning period), 

it is recommended that additional lands are designated in Mayfield West, either through 

an expansion of the existing employment area located on the east side of Highway 410, 

or through the establishment of a new employment area on the west side of Highway 

410. 

 

Over the longer term (i.e. 2031) a minimum additional 230 net or 290 gross acres (93 net 

or 117 gross ha) of employment lands are recommended for the Mayfield West area. It 

is recommended that medium to long term employment land needs are monitored at 

least every five years in Mayfield West. For example, an increase in forecast 

employment land absorption and/or decreased employment density levels could result in 

significantly greater long term employment land needs for this area. 

Tullamore and the Remaining Rural Area 

 

A total of 148 net vacant acres (60 net ha) of serviced employment lands have been 

identified within the Tullamore Industrial Area. Based on an average of 12 net acres (5 

net ha) per year in this area, a minimum additional 150 net or 210 gross acres (60 net or 

85 gross ha) of employment lands are recommended by 2031. 




7-13 

 

A total of 61 net vacant developable acres (25 net ha) of unserviced employment lands 

have been identified within the remaining rural area. Based on an average of 2 net 

acres per year (1 net ha) in this area, the currently designated supply of employment 





8. CONCLUSIONS 




8-1 

8. CONCLUSIONS 

The findings of this study demonstrate that over the coming 25 years, employment growth 

pressures will be considerable throughout outlying west/north GTAH municipalities (i.e. north 

York Region, north Peel) as the supply of developable employment land diminishes within more 

heavily urbanized municipalities, such as the City of Toronto and the City of Mississauga. At the 

local level, a number of economic drivers have been identified which will increase market 

demand for industrial/commercial development the Town of Caledon, largely within South 

Albion-Bolton, Mayfield West, and Tullamore. The following provides a summary of the 

forecast long-term employment lands for the Town of Caledon, based on our review of existing 

employment land supply and forecast demand. 

Employment Land Supply 

1. The availability of serviced industrial land (i.e. market available for sale/lease) within the 

Bolton Industrial Area is limited, especially for larger sites available for straight land sale. 

As of 2007, it has been estimated that this area has a readily-available, serviced land 

supply of approximately 227 gross acres (92 gross ha). Approximately 79% of identified 

available serviced employment sites are less than 5 acres (2 ha) in size. In addition, 

many of these smaller sites are poorly configured and fragmented, which limits the 

potential for land assembly. 

2. Based on an average annual employment land absorption of 54 net or 72 gross 

acres (22 net or 29 gross ha) from 2006 to 2011, the Bolton Industrial Area has a 

maximum serviced readily-available supply of approximately three years. When 

considering larger employment land sites, i.e. those greater than 30 acres (12 ha), this 

area currently has only one serviced site and it is currently available for long-term land 

lease rather than sale. As such, Bolton currently has no available vacant supply of 

larger sites (i.e. > 30 acres), which are available for straight sale. 

3. As identified in Chapter 4, the limited availability of employment land within the Bolton 

Industrial Area has impeded recent absorption levels, generating pent up demand within 

this area. 




8-2 

4. To ensure that the Town’s employment land supply is not unduly constrained, it is 

recommended that the Town maintain a minimum designated and serviced employment 

land supply of at least five years at all times. This would apply to all of the Town’s 

employment areas. 

5. A significant supply of employment lands is also designated within the Mayfield West 

Secondary Plan Area, which will essentially provide the Town with two potentially active 

industrial areas. Based on discussions with the Town, the designated employment lands 

within the Mayfield West Secondary Plan Area will be available for development by late 

2008. 1 

Demand for Employment on Employment Lands 

1. Forecast demand for employment on employment lands in Caledon is well above 

historical averages (Table 7-1b). Over the end-2006 to mid-2031 planning period, the 

Town of Caledon is forecast to add a total of 19,174 employees on employment lands, or 

767 employees per year. During the 1996 to 2006 period, the Town averaged 

approximately 430 additional employees on employment lands per year. 

5. Approximately 47% of total forecast employment land absorption has been 

allocated to the South Albion-Bolton Industrial Area, while 33% and 17% has been 

allocated to Mayfield West and Tullamore, respectively. The remaining 3% has been 

forecast throughout the remaining rural area. 

2. With respect to land demand, the Town of Caledon is forecast to absorb an annual 

average of 95 gross acres per year (38 gross ha/year) from 2006 to 2031. 

3. Average annual absorption rates are forecast to diminish over the forecast period, which 

is consistent with the employment growth trends for the Town, Region of Peel, and 

Province. For Caledon, this is largely a result of a declining employment growth rate and 

increasing employment density over the forecast period. 

1 As per discussions with Town staff. 




8-3 

Employment Land Needs 

The following summarizes long term land needs for employment on employment lands based on 

forecast demand and net developable supply within the Town of Caledon by settlement area. 

Recommended future employment land needs (i.e. expansion of designated land) have been 

calculated in gross acres/hectares (i.e. they include provisions for roads, easements, corridors, 

stormwater ponds). However, due to uncertainty with respect to location options for future 

employment lands designations, environmental lands have not been included in the gross 

employment land area calculations. 

The following key findings are provided with respect to future employment land needs by 

settlement area within the Town of Caledon. 

1. South Albion-Bolton Industrial Area 

1.1 Over the longer term (i.e. 2021 and 2031), it is assumed that all identified developable 

employment lands (398 net acres or 161 net ha) within the Bolton Industrial Area will be 

serviced and absorbed. 1 Over the 2006 to 2031 period, a minimum additional 470 net or 

620 gross acres (190 net or 251 gross ha) of employment lands are required to 

accommodate forecast demand. 

1.2 It is recommended that the Town continually monitor its “market ready” supply on an 

ongoing basis to ensure that its vacant employment lands inventory is sufficient to meet 

the demands of the market. This will become especially critical towards the later portion 

of the planning period (i.e. post 2021) as the prime sites in the new expansion area(s) of 

South Albion-Bolton are absorbed. 

1.3 Location options for future growth (i.e. expansion of designated land) will depend on 

several factors including, land availability and agglomeration potential (i.e. potential to 

assemble employment lands of critical mass), abutting land uses, environmental 

constraints, traffic impacts, proximity to services, proximity to existing designated 

employment areas, fiscal impact, price, market potential and access/exposure to 

highways/arterial roads. With respect to market potential, the location of a future 

1 Assuming 5% adjustment for land vacancy 




employment lands expansion area within the South Albion-Bolton Industrial Area should 

give consideration to the following: 

8-4 

o availability of contiguous lands which allows for the designation of an 

employment land area of approximately 630 gross acres; 

o potential to maximize frontage and exposure onto existing arterial roads; 

o land availability for future expansion potential post 2031; 

o the physical connectivity of the proposed area to the existing lands within the 

South Albion-Bolton Industrial Area; and 

o proximity to existing and proposed 400 series highways. 

2. Mayfield West 

2.1 Within Mayfield West, a total employment land supply of 358 net acres (145 net ha) has 

been proposed in the Mayfield West Secondary Plan, on the east side of the proposed 


2.2 Based on an average absorption of 24 gross acres per year (10 gross ha/year), the 


accommodate future demand beyond 2021. However, in order to ensure that longterm 

demand is not unduly constrained within the Mayfield West, it is recommended 

that additional lands are designated in Mayfield West during the post 2021 

planning period, either through an expansion of the existing employment area 

located on the east side of Highway 410, or through the establishment of a new 

employment area on the west side of Highway 410. 

2.3 Over the longer-term (i.e. 2021-2031) a minimum of an additional 230 net or 290 

gross acres (93 net or 117 gross ha) of employment lands are recommended for 

the Mayfield West area. It is recommended that medium to long term employment 

land needs are maintained at least every five years in Mayfield West. For example, 

an increase in forecast employment land absorption and/or decreased 

employment density levels could result in greater long term employment land 

needs for this area. 




8-5 

3. Tullamore and the Remaining Rural Area 

3.1 A total of 148 vacant net acres (60 ha) of serviced employment lands have been 

identified within the Tullamore Industrial Area. Based on an average absorption of 12 

net acres (5 ha) per year in this area, a minimum additional 150 net or 210 gross 

acres (60 net or 85 gross ha) of employment lands are recommended prior to 

2031. 

3.2 A total of 61 net gross developable acres (25 net ha) of serviced employment lands have 

been identified within the remaining rural area. Based on an average of 2 net acres 

per year (1 net ha) in this area, the currently designated supply of employment

TOWN OF CALEDON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS STUDY

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