Security Outlook of the Asia-Pacific Countries and Its ... - PDII – LIPI

Security Outlook of the Asia-Pacific Countries
and Its Implications for the Defense Sector

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Contents
Preface
Eiiehl Katahara
1
CHAPTER 1
3
Indonesia: Security Outlook, Defense Policy, and Regional Cooperation
RlzalSUKMA
Introduction. .. . 3
Indonesia's Security Challenges ," 4
Developments in Defense Sector: Extensive Needs, Modest Improvement 10
External Cooperation
15
Conclusion
'.. 17
CHAPTER 2 }t~ 19
Malaysia's Strategic Outlook and Developments in it~ Defence Policy
TANG Siew Mun . ~ )
Malaysia's Strategic Outlook
19
The Region's "Hot Spots"
20
Putting A Number On Defence................................................................. .. 23
More Woes for the Military in the Wake of Economic Downturn . 24
A New Mission for the Malaysian Armed Forces?
24
Defence Diplomacy
25
Diseonnect Between Policy and Practice: Deterrence and Forward Defence 25
Looking Ahead for Malaysia's Defence Poliey
27
CHAPTER 3
The Continuing Malaise of National Security in the Philippines
Herman Joseph S. KRAFT
Meeting the Challenges
29
State ofthe Armed Forces of the Philippines
35
Security Relationships.. . 37
Bibliography
38
29

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CHAPTER 4
Singapore in 2010: Innovation and Confidence amidst Strategic
Uncertainty
LAMPengEr
41
Power shift in Asia and the World
41
ASEAN-Centered Regional Architecture , 42
Diplomacy and Cooperation: Immediate Neighbors
43
SAF Abroad: GulfofAden
44
SAF Abroad: Afghanistan
45
SAF Abroad: Training as an Advanced Networked Force
45
Singapore's Defense Research and Development
48
Epilogue
50
CHAPTER 5
51
Years of Living Dangerously: Thailand's Current Security Challenges
Pavin Chachavalpongpun
Violent Political Conflicts :?~,:~ 52
Insurgency in the Deep South " , 54
Territorial Disputes with Cambodia ~ ( 55
Threats from Myanmar
56
Non-Traditional Threats
58
Impact on Defence Policy
60
CHAPTER 6
Myanmar's Post-Election Security Challenges
Tin Maung Maung Than
Elections in 2010: Redistribution of Power
The Role of Defence Services in Post-Election Myanmar
Security Challenges
Conclusion
63
63
67
74
80
CHAPTER?
The U.S. Secnrity Outlook in the Asia-Pacific Region
Andrew S. Erickson
Key Future Trends & Approaches
Asia-Paeific Applications
Conclusion
81
82
91
117

CHAPTERS
Meeting the Challenge ofAsia's Changing Security Environment:
China's Response to the New Threats
You}i
Challenge Number One: Coordinated Efforts against China's Rise
Strategic Challenge Number Two: Avoiding Simultaneous Multiple Armed
Conflicts
Strategic Challenge Number Three: A Second Korean War on the Brink
Conelusion
123
124
135
140
146
CHAPTER 9
149
Japan's Security Outlook: Security Challenges and the New National
Defense Program Guidelines
Tomotaka SHOJI
Introduction
149
Security ChEll,lenges Facing Japan: Emer.gen~e of the "ChiJ~r.£hallenge"'" 150
The New NEltlOnal Defense Program GUidelInes :~.\, 155
Multilateralism and Implications for Security in Southeast A\9i

Preface
This report is based on presentations ofthe second "International Workshop on Asia­
Pacific Security" hosted by the National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS). This
workshop was held on January 27-28, 2011, with distinguished experts invited from
various countries in the Asia-Pacific region, and the report is published as part of the
"NIDS Joint Research Series".
The theme ofthe workshop was "Security Outlook ofthe Asia-Pacific Countries and
Its Implications for the Defense Sector". Each participant presented a perspective on
his or her assigned country's security outlook, including significant security
challenges and their implications for the country's defense policy, force structure and
defense procurement, and future prospects for regional security cooperation.
7;f>
In the Asia-Pacific region, there has been progress in buildin'g"regional frameworks
such as the Asia Pacific Eeonomic Cooperation (APEC), ASEAN Regional Forum
(ARP), EastAsia Summit (EAS), and ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting (ADMM)
Plus. However, unlike Europe, this region laeks overarching security architecture.
Traditional security issues remain in the region, while non-traditional security issues
like terrorism, natural disaster, and pandemic are also looming large on the region's
security agenda. We hope that this report will contribute to sharing our knowledge
about major security issues facing the region, and deepening mutual understanding
and cooperation between Japan and Asia-Pacific countries.
The authors ofchapters are Dr. Rizal Sukma, Dr. Tang Siew Mun, Dr. Hennan Joseph
S. Kraft, Dr. Lam Peng Er, Dr. Pavin Chachavalpongpun, Dr. Tin Maung Maung
Than, Dr. Andrew S. Erickson, Dr. You Ji, and Dr. Tomotaka Shoji. The views
expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of
NlDS or any institutes with whieh they are affiliated.

We would like to thank the authors for their valuable contributions and other
participants in the workshop.
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December 2011
Eiichi Katahara
Director, Regional Studies Department
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