Appendix F - City of Oshawa

Kedron Planning Area Retail Demand Analysis
1.0 Assumptions
1. Time Frame
The year 2031 was chosen as the date of full build out.
2. Target Markets
The target markets include local Kedron Planning Area residents (30,000), nearby residents
from Windfield, Samac, and Taunton (47,000), and prestige employment workers (5,000 –
one-third of the total estimated employment). It was assumed that 25% of the workers would
be local residents. As a result, their direct expenditure was decreased by that amount to
avoid double counting.
3. Expenditure Analysis
The expenditure analysis is based on per capita expenditures based on retail sales data from
Ontario for all categories. Automotive and gas station related categories were not included.
An average of total retail sales from Quarter 4 2007 to Quarter 3 2009 was used. This was the
most recent data available at the time of writing this report. An average of two years’ worth
of data was used to help mitigate the effects of the recent downturn.
4. Kedron Planning Area Expenditure
A proxy was used to develop a profile of the type of residents who will be shopping in the
area. The current residents in the area bound by Thornton Road, Winchester Road East,
Enfield Road, and Taunton Road East were analyzed based primarily on per capita income
and retail expenditures. Estimates for 2009 were based on 2006 Census information and
growth rates projected by Environics. In the 2006 Census, there were 15,680 residents in this
proxy area.
Retail category expenditure data as a percentage of per capita income was adjusted upwards
and downwards based on an analysis of expenditure data of the proxy area to Ontario data
to reflect regional variations in consumption. For example, local residents spend 8.3% less
than Ontario residents on food purchased from stores.
5. Capture Rates
Capture rates for all target markets are based on Urban Marketing Collaborative’s extensive
experience working with real estate developments, retailers, and communities across North
America. They reflect the extensive existing supply located along Taunton Road, the
proposed development at the SE corner of Conlin Road East and Harmony Road North as
well as the proposed 2.1 million square foot retail development at Windfields.
Urban Marketing Collaborative 2