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OPEC in the World Economy Table 3 Comparison: OPEC and Non-OPEC Developing Countries 1996 1997 1998* OPEC non-OPEC OPEC non-OPEC OPEC non-OPEC Real GDP growth rate 4.9 5.2 4.7 4.2 -4.0 2.3 Petroleum export value ($bn) 165.4 58.4* 166.0 55.0 110.1 Value of non-petroleum exports ($bn) 76.4 878.1* 86.9* 918.0 85.4 Oil exports as % of total exports 68.4 6.2* 65.6* 5.6 56.3 Value of imports ($bn) 153.3 1,083.3* 171.2* 1,126.0 153.8 Current account balance ($bn) 25.4 -74.5 17.5* -87.9 -15.4 -62.6 Average Reference Basket price ($/b) 20.29 18.68 12.28 Crude oil production (m b/d) 24.8 9.2 25.4 9.4 27.8 9.7 Reserves (excluding gold) ($bn) 71.7 521.3* 76.7* 541.5 74.3 652.8 * Estimated. Sources IMF, International Financial Statistics IMF, World Economic Outlook IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics EIU, World Outlook 1999 EIU, Country Reports OPEC Database Secretariat's estimates 16
stabilize at 24 per cent in 1998, compared to 25 per cent in 1997 and 39 per cent in 1996. Negative growth of –2.0 per cent was witnessed in 1998. In Nigeria, GDP growth slowed to 2.4 per cent during the year against 3.9 per cent growth in 1997. The authorities cut back on funding for joint ventures in the oil sector, delayed the release of capital budget funds, and capped foreign debt repayments. Saudi Arabia's real GDP growth rate slowed to 0.4 per cent in 1998, compared to the previous year's rate of 1.9 per cent. Oil export revenues were expected to fall to $29.4bn during 1998, 35 per cent lower than the previous year's level. Investment in general was set to slow in 1998, as part of efforts to reduce government expenditure. Meanwhile the authorities moved forward cautiously with the privatization of state assets. For other MCs, namely Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, the GDP growth rates were –2.3 per cent, 2.0 per cent, and –2.0 per cent, respectively. The steep deceleration in GDP growth rates was due to the fall in Asian oil demand and the financial crisis in the region, which is considered the main market for Gulf crudes. Qatar’s GDP growth was not negative because of the mitigating effects of LNG sales. Venezuela’s GDP growth rate was –0.7 per cent in 1998 compared to the previous year's reasonable growth rate of 5.9 per cent. In summary, the poor economic performance in 1998 resulted from the interaction between the Asian financial crisis and excess oil supplies, which led to the international oil price collapse. This undoubtedly affected OPEC MCs by hitting their oil revenues, and causing their GDP growth rates to decelerate. All MCs still rely heavily on oil income as a source of foreign exchange and the mainstay of their budget revenues. Therefore, the 1998 oil price fall seriously affected both the MCs’ budget structures, and the financing of development projects in general. 17
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