DSM Terminal-Area-Concept-Plan-Technical-Report - FINAL

Aviation Demand Forecast
Aviation Activity Forecast – Comparison with the FAA 2012 TAF
KEY POINTS
• The forecasts are
compared for the
components of total
enplaned passengers,
commercial aircraft
operations, and total
aircraft operations.
• Forecast of enplaned
passengers for DSM is
higher than the TAF in
2017 and 2022. The
variance between the
DSM enplaned
passenger forecast and
the FAA 2012 TAF is
15.2% in 2017 and
26.8% in 2022.
Table 18
FAA TAF Forecast Comparison
Des Moines International Airport (2012 – 2027)
The DSM planning forecasts are outside of the allowed
variance* from the FAA 2012 TAF for the following
reasons:
• Economic and business trends in the Des Moines MSA
discussed in Chapter 2, “Economic Basis for Airline
Traffic” as well as recent traffic trends at DSM reflecting
the expansion of low cost carrier service suggest that
DSM passenger traffic will increase at a rate faster than
forecast in the FAA 2012 TAF for DSM (an average of
1.5% per year) and for the airports in the DSM
catchment area and adjacent region (an average of 2.4%
per year), as shown in Figure 24.
• Historically, DSM has accounted for nearly 30% of
passengers enplaned at the regional airports shown in
Figure 7‐1. In the DSM planning forecasts, it is assumed
that DSM will increase gradually to 32% during the
forecast period. In the FAA 2012 TAF, DSM accounts for a
decreasing share of the passengers enplaned at the
regional airports, as shown in Figure 25.
Figure 24
FAA 2012 TAF for DSM Catchment Area Airports and
Adjacent Airports (1990-2032)
Figure 25
DSM Forecast Share of Regional Enplaned
Passengers (1990-2032)
• Forecast of commercial
operations for DSM is
lower than the TAF in
2017 and 2022. The
variance between the
DSM commercial
operations forecast and
the FAA 2012 TAF is
12.5% in 2017 and
13.3% in 2022.
• Forecast of total aircraft
operations for DSM is
lower than the TAF in
2017 and 2022. The
variance between the
DSM total aircraft
operations forecast and
the FAA 2012 TAF is
10.7% in 2017 and
11.1% in 2022.
Table 18 presents a comparison of the aviation activity
forecasts prepared for DSM and the FAA 2012 TAF for the
Airport. The forecasts are compared for the components of
total enplaned passengers, commercial aircraft operations and
total aircraft operations. The format of Table 18 is based on
the template provided by the FAA for the comparison of
airport planning forecasts and the FAA TAF. As required, the
results are presented for the base year of 2012 and forecast
horizons years which are equal to the base year, plus 1, 5, 10
and 15 years (2013, 2017, 2022, and 2027).
• In recent years, the number of passengers per
commercial operation has increased at DSM as airlines
replace 50‐seat regional aircraft with more fuel efficient
larger aircraft. In the DSM planning forecasts, it is
assumed that the number of passengers per commercial
operation will increase an average of 1.5% per year,
reflecting upgauging in airline fleets. In the FAA 2012
TAF, the number of passengers per commercial
operation is forecast to decrease an average of 0.7% per
year, as shown in Figure 26.
* As stipulated in the FAA forecast guidance, the planning
forecasts must “differ by less than 10 percent in the 5‐year
forecast period, and 15 percent in the 10‐year forecast
period”.
Figure 26
Historical & Forecast Passengers per Commercial Operation
Des Moines International Airport
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TERMINAL AREA CONCEPT PLAN TECHNICAL REPORT
Des Moines International Airport