PDF slideshow - Richard Carrier

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IMPROVED CT Software Patch 2.0: Understanding the cognitive science of human reasoning, error, and belief-formation. You need to control, correct, or compensate for your own cognitive biases, and learn to detect them in others. Updating Your Firmware: Understanding Bayes’ Theorem and how it underlies all sound thinking. You need to know how to use Bayes’ Theorem as a tool to improve your own reasoning and evaluate the reasoning of others.
GETTING WITH COGNITIVE SCIENCE It’s the 21st Century: We now know how badly built our brains are for the purpose of reasoning. Natural inborn tools of thought and cognition are clunky, ad hoc, prone to well-documented errors. You are as much subject to them as anyone else. Start with Wikipedia’s List of Cognitive Biases.
Page 1 and 2: Richard Carrier, Ph.D. www.richardc
Page 3 and 4: BREAKDOWN Traditional Principles of
Page 5 and 6: TO BE A CRITICAL THINKER... CT mean
Page 7 and 8: AND THAT’S WHAT IT’S ALL ABOUT
Page 9 and 10: AND ENDS WITH PROBABILITY
Page 11: TRADITIONAL CT Defense Against the
Page 15 and 16: THE FUTURE OF CT The Center for App
Page 17 and 18: PERSONALITY-BASED COGNITIVE ERROR D
Page 19 and 20: BAYES’ THEOREM P(h|b) x P(e|h.b)
Page 21 and 22: The Probability of... Your Theory [
Page 23 and 24: BAYESIAN REASONING freethoughtblogs
Page 25 and 26: PRIOR Probability What has usually
Page 27 and 28: Unusual Claims Require Unusual Evid
Page 29 and 30: What evidence would we normally exp
Page 31 and 32: PRIORS & LIKELIHOODS Prior Probabil
Page 33 and 34: ARGUMENT FROM SILENCE Is the absenc
Page 35 and 36: BAYESIAN REASONING Evidence expecte

PDF slideshow - Richard Carrier

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