PDF slideshow - Richard Carrier

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IT’S BAYES’ THEOREM ALL THE WAY DOWN Not only “Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence” and the Argument from Silence but also... The Hypothetico-Deductive Method (HDM) Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE) Ockham’s Razor Etc.
BAYESIAN REASONING Evidence expected even if h is false is not evidence for h. The more improbable the evidence is on any other explanation than h, the more probable it makes h. The more typically explanations like h turn out to be true, the more evidence you need against h to conclude it’s false. The more typically explanations like h turn out to be false, the more evidence you need for h to conclude it’s true. “More evidence” always means “evidence that’s more improbable on any other explanation.”
Page 1 and 2: Richard Carrier, Ph.D. www.richardc
Page 3 and 4: BREAKDOWN Traditional Principles of
Page 5 and 6: TO BE A CRITICAL THINKER... CT mean
Page 7 and 8: AND THAT’S WHAT IT’S ALL ABOUT
Page 9 and 10: AND ENDS WITH PROBABILITY
Page 11 and 12: TRADITIONAL CT Defense Against the
Page 13 and 14: GETTING WITH COGNITIVE SCIENCE It
Page 15 and 16: THE FUTURE OF CT The Center for App
Page 17 and 18: PERSONALITY-BASED COGNITIVE ERROR D
Page 19 and 20: BAYES’ THEOREM P(h|b) x P(e|h.b)
Page 21 and 22: The Probability of... Your Theory [
Page 23 and 24: BAYESIAN REASONING freethoughtblogs
Page 25 and 26: PRIOR Probability What has usually
Page 27 and 28: Unusual Claims Require Unusual Evid
Page 29 and 30: What evidence would we normally exp
Page 31 and 32: PRIORS & LIKELIHOODS Prior Probabil
Page 33: ARGUMENT FROM SILENCE Is the absenc

PDF slideshow - Richard Carrier

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