PDF slideshow - Richard Carrier

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What evidence would we normally expect to have for the claimed fact? ...and for the claimed phenomenon in general if it existed in general? Unexpected evidence is improbable evidence Improbable evidence = evidence against Evidence that’s improbable on every other explanation = evidence for what’s claimed
What evidence would we normally expect to No evidence = Prior probability very low Some = Prior is relative frequency have for the claimed fact? ...and for the claimed phenomenon in general if it existed in general? Unexpected evidence is improbable evidence Improbable evidence = evidence against Evidence that’s improbable on every other explanation = evidence for what’s claimed
Page 1 and 2: Richard Carrier, Ph.D. www.richardc
Page 3 and 4: BREAKDOWN Traditional Principles of
Page 5 and 6: TO BE A CRITICAL THINKER... CT mean
Page 7 and 8: AND THAT’S WHAT IT’S ALL ABOUT
Page 9 and 10: AND ENDS WITH PROBABILITY
Page 11 and 12: TRADITIONAL CT Defense Against the
Page 13 and 14: GETTING WITH COGNITIVE SCIENCE It
Page 15 and 16: THE FUTURE OF CT The Center for App
Page 17 and 18: PERSONALITY-BASED COGNITIVE ERROR D
Page 19 and 20: BAYES’ THEOREM P(h|b) x P(e|h.b)
Page 21 and 22: The Probability of... Your Theory [
Page 23 and 24: BAYESIAN REASONING freethoughtblogs
Page 25 and 26: PRIOR Probability What has usually
Page 27: Unusual Claims Require Unusual Evid
Page 31 and 32: PRIORS & LIKELIHOODS Prior Probabil
Page 33 and 34: ARGUMENT FROM SILENCE Is the absenc
Page 35 and 36: BAYESIAN REASONING Evidence expecte

PDF slideshow - Richard Carrier

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