Global Tuberculosis Report -- 2012.pdf

FIGURE 2.12 Trends in estimated TB mortality rates 1990–2011 and forecast TB mortality rates 2012–2015, by WHO
region. Estimated TB mortality excludes TB deaths among HIV-positive people. Shaded areas represent uncertainty
bands. a The horizontal dashed lines represent the Stop TB Partnership target of a 50% reduction in the mortality rate by
2015 compared with 1990. The other dashed lines show projections up to 2015.
60
40
Africa
8
6
The Americas
60
50
40
Eastern Mediterranean
4
30
Rate per 100 000 population per year
20
0
8
Europe
2
0
60
South-East Asia
20
10
0
25
20
Western Pacific
6
40
15
4
2
20
10
5
0
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0
a
The width of an uncertainty band narrows as the proportion of regional mortality estimated using vital registration data increases or the quality and completeness of the
vital registration data improves.
2.5 Strengthening measurement of the
burden of disease caused by TB: the
WHO Global Task Force on TB Impact
Measurement
The estimates of TB incidence, prevalence and mortality
and their trend presented in sections 2.1–2.4 are based on
the best available data and analytical methods. In 2009,
methods were fully revised, and since April 2009 consultations
have been held with 96 countries accounting for
89% of the world’s TB cases. Nonetheless, there is considerable
scope for further improvement. This final section
of the chapter describes the latest status of efforts to
improve measurement of the burden of disease caused by
TB, under the umbrella of the WHO Global Task Force on
TB Impact Measurement.
Established in mid-2006, the mandate of the WHO
Global Task Force on TB Impact Measurement is to ensure
the best possible assessment of whether the 2015 global
targets for reductions in the burden of disease caused by
TB are achieved, to report on progress in the years leading
up to 2015 and to strengthen capacity for monitoring and
evaluation at the country level. The Task Force includes
representatives from leading technical and financial partners
and countries with a high burden of TB. 1
At its second meeting in December 2007, the Task
Force defined three strategic areas of work: 2
● strengthening surveillance towards the ultimate goal
of direct measurement of incidence and mortality from
notification and VR systems;
● conducting surveys of the prevalence of TB disease in
a set of global focus countries that met epidemiological
and other relevant criteria; and
● periodic revision of the methods used to translate surveillance
and survey data into estimates of TB incidence,
prevalence and mortality.
The third area of work is discussed in more detail in
Annex 1. The following sections focus on the first two
strategic areas of work. Full details of the Task Force’s
work are available on its web site. 3
1
Partners that are actively participating in the work of the Task
Force include the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
in the USA, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and
Control, the Global Fund, the Health Protection Agency in the
UK, the KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation, the London School
of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the UK, the Research
Institute for Tuberculosis in Japan, the Union and USAID.
Many countries with a high burden of TB are engaged in the
work of the Task Force.
2
TB impact measurement: policy and recommendations for how to
assess the epidemiological burden of TB and the impact of TB control.
Geneva, World Health Organization, 2009 (Stop TB policy
paper no. 2; WHO/HTM/TB/2009.416).
3
www.who.int/tb/advisory_bodies/impact_
measurement_taskforce
GLOBAL TUBERCULOSIS REPORT 2012 21