CHAPTER 1: An introduction to time series and forecasting

Example (Unemployment Rate (%) in Singapore)
year rate year rate year rate
1973 4.4 1984 2.7 1995 2.7
1974 3.9 1985 4.1 1996 3.0
1975 4.5 1986 6.5 1997 2.4
1976 4.4 1987 4.7 1998 3.2
1977 3.9 1988 3.3 1999 4.6
1978 3.6 1989 2.2 2000 4.4
1979 3.3 1990 1.7 2001 3.4
1980 3.5 1991 1.9 2002 5.2
1981 2.9 1992 2.7 2003 5.4
1982 2.6 1993 2.7 2004 5.3
1983 3.2 1994 2.6
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Figure 2:
More time series [what can you observe in the time series?]
7000
Canadian Lynx captured (1828-1934)
6000
number of lynx
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
time (year)
Figure 3:
3