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From the publishers of:<br />

<strong>Chip</strong> <strong>Design</strong> <strong>Trends</strong><br />

Data, Analysis, and Benchmarking on SOC <strong>Design</strong><br />

Vol. 1, No. 5 March 2007<br />

Executive Summary<br />

• Embedded memories<br />

show growth (pg 2)<br />

• Is the core meltdown<br />

just a false alarm?<br />

(pg 7)<br />

• <strong>Synopsys</strong> prepares<br />

for future growth in IP<br />

segment (pg 9)<br />

• <strong>Design</strong> interest to peak<br />

in March, while power<br />

ranges rise! (pg 10)<br />

Did you know...<br />

...that copying or electronically forwarding<br />

of this publication is illegal?<br />

We rely on subscription fees to support<br />

our editorial effort. Illegal copying<br />

hurts our ability to bring you the<br />

best information and may even subjects<br />

you to a fine. For information on<br />

discounted bulk subscriptions, please<br />

email tneblett@extensionmedia.<strong>com</strong><br />

In This Issue<br />

2 ■ Analysis and <strong>Trends</strong><br />

7 ■ Behind the Numbers<br />

9 ■ IP <strong>Trends</strong><br />

10 ■ Performance, Power<br />

and Area<br />

Embedded Memories Show Growth<br />

By Erach Desai<br />

Analysis and trends<br />

The challenge of micro-analyzing data that’s made available on a monthly basis is<br />

that it is difficult to convert monthly data points into a trend. Of course, the beauty<br />

of slicing the data on a monthly cycle is the potential to spot an emerging or evolving<br />

trend. We attempt to over<strong>com</strong>e the imprecision of<br />

monthly data points by looking at some rolling three- ...Continued on page 2<br />

Is the Core Meltdown Just a False Alarm?<br />

By Dave Bursky<br />

behind the numbers<br />

As time-to-market pressures continue to mount, the <strong>com</strong>panies that are designing<br />

<strong>com</strong>plex application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) are licensing more and more<br />

intellectual property (IP). They hope to shorten their design cycles by using this IP,<br />

which <strong>com</strong>prises embedded CPU cores, memory<br />

blocks, MPEG encoders/decoders, USB interfaces, ...Continued on page 7<br />

<strong>Synopsys</strong> Prepares for Future Growth in IP Segment<br />

By Geoffrey James<br />

IP <strong>Trends</strong><br />

When <strong>Synopsys</strong> began acquiring semiconductor intellectual-property (IP) firms<br />

a few years ago, some industry pundits (including this writer) wondered whether<br />

<strong>Synopsys</strong> CEO Aart de Geus knew what he was doing. Even though EDAC had<br />

been tracking IP for years, many of us thought that<br />

electronic design automation (EDA) was all about ...Continued on page 9<br />

<strong>Design</strong> Interest to Peak in March, While Power<br />

Ranges Rise<br />

By John Blyler<br />

Performance, power and area<br />

This month, almost every new chip-design data metric was up—from total design<br />

investigations to profiled power, clock speed, and die area (see Figure 1). These increases<br />

were significantly large, exceeding the forecasts from last month. In order to better predict the<br />

size of future changes, I’ve started tracking the moving<br />

average of the total design profiles (see Figure 2).<br />

...Continued on page 10


© 2007 Extension Media. All rights reserved.<br />

Analysis and <strong>Trends</strong><br />

...Continued from page 1<br />

month data. <strong>Design</strong> activity has nicely<br />

bounced off some more-than-seasonally<br />

weak levels last fall. Yet the year-over-year<br />

trends are still negative (albeit less so).<br />

The current issue of <strong>Chip</strong> <strong>Design</strong> <strong>Trends</strong><br />

reflects data that has been accumulated<br />

through the month of January 2007. We’re<br />

now tracking more than 41,000 unique<br />

design investigations: system-on-a-chip<br />

(SoC) design experiments, but not actual<br />

design starts per se. We believe that the end<br />

product of this rich and unique set of data is<br />

a fairly accurate representation of how new,<br />

<strong>com</strong>plex, application-specific-integratedcircuit<br />

(ASIC) design starts are trending.<br />

In addition to tracking <strong>com</strong>plexity across<br />

a variety of metrics (as we have been<br />

for the past three months), the current<br />

issue of <strong>Chip</strong> <strong>Design</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> dives into<br />

data for random-logic gate count and<br />

embedded-memory megabits. Our goal<br />

is to ascertain whether there’s a bigger<br />

picture to be gleaned. In this issue, we also<br />

have continued to drill down on the usage<br />

of processor intellectual-property (IP)<br />

central-processing-unit (CPU) cores.<br />

First, let’s drill down into the overall and<br />

geographic data. Figure 1 summarizes<br />

the data and analysis for SoC designinvestigation<br />

activity by geography. Recall<br />

that we look at three-month rolling data<br />

to arrive at some more tangible yearover-year<br />

and sequential trends. The key<br />

observations based on Figure 1 are:<br />

• The rate of decline in total SoC<br />

design investigations was the best<br />

in five months. Nonetheless, design<br />

investigations for the three months<br />

ending in January 2007 declined<br />

by 18% <strong>com</strong>pared to a year ago. On<br />

Three Months Ending Oct. ' 05 Jan. '06 Oct. '06 Jan. '07<br />

N. America – <strong>Design</strong> Investigations 3,923 4,027 1,659 2,723<br />

Year-over-year change -58% -32%<br />

Sequential change +16% +3% -45% +64%<br />

Europe – <strong>Design</strong> Investigations 1,472 968 920 671<br />

Year-over-year change -38% -31%<br />

Sequential change +82% -34% -23% -27%<br />

Asia – <strong>Design</strong> Investigations 740 666 722 995<br />

Year-over-year change -2% +49%<br />

Sequential change -8% -10% -38% +38%<br />

RoW – <strong>Design</strong> Investigations 166 86 180 326<br />

Year-over-year change -45% +136%<br />

Sequential change -27% -48% +109% +81%<br />

Total – <strong>Design</strong> Investigations 6,301 5,747 3,481 4,715<br />

Year-over-year change -45% -18%<br />

Sequential change +20% -9% -36% +35%<br />

Figure 1: The rate of year-over-year declines is moderating.<br />

a sequential basis, however, SoC<br />

design activity was up sharply by<br />

35%. Keep in mind that this rise<br />

was off of very weak levels for the<br />

three months ending October 2006.<br />

• Not surprisingly, trends in North<br />

America continued to largely<br />

mirror the overall trends, with the<br />

actual percentage changes being<br />

worse than the overall numbers.<br />

Despite the nice sequential uptick,<br />

we continue to be baffled by the<br />

32% year-over-year decline.<br />

• With the January 2007 data, Europe<br />

and Asia went in different directions.<br />

European design activity got worse<br />

on both counts (sequential and year<br />

over year), while Asia swung back<br />

strongly on both counts.<br />

• <strong>Design</strong> activity in the rest-of-world<br />

(RoW) regions, as collected in our<br />

data-set, continued to grow on a<br />

gangbuster scale. However, the<br />

rest-of-world regions were about<br />

6% of overall design activity for<br />

January 2007 <strong>com</strong>pared to just<br />

under 8% for December 2006.<br />

• March 2007<br />

<strong>Chip</strong> <strong>Design</strong> <strong>Trends</strong>


© 2007 Extension Media. All rights reserved.<br />

Let’s score a point for the nice sequential<br />

turnaround in the rolling three-month<br />

data for January 2007. At the same time,<br />

though, we must continue to mentally<br />

note the year-over-year decline in overall<br />

activity, which remains problematic to<br />

explain away.<br />

At first blush, it appears that the sharp<br />

uptick in the under-50-mm2 die-size<br />

range largely contributed to bringing the<br />

average die size back toward 30 mm2.<br />

Recall that we were optimistic last month<br />

when there appeared to be a trend toward<br />

slightly higher average die sizes.<br />

Figure 2: Average die size is hovering around 35 mm2.<br />

After we take our customary look at the<br />

monthly cut of data by process technology<br />

node, we will digress (pertinently) and<br />

look at some die-size data by technology<br />

node. For now, Figure 2 doesn’t provide<br />

much weight in the case for more <strong>com</strong>plex<br />

designs.<br />

In Figure 3, we capture the monthly trends<br />

in SoC design experiments by process<br />

technology node layered with the weighted<br />

average of process node. After a solid four<br />

consecutive months of lower average<br />

process nodes (and headed toward 110<br />

nm), the trend was derailed by the spike in<br />

250-nm design activity. These intertwined<br />

developments don’t augur well for a move<br />

toward more <strong>com</strong>plex design activity.<br />

In recent months, we also have been<br />

collecting die-size data on a per-processnode<br />

basis. For this issue, we decided to<br />

take a further look under the hood (so to<br />

speak) to see if we could divine a deeper<br />

understanding.<br />

In Figure 4, we’ve juxtapositioned die-size<br />

trends for 130 and 90 nm going back about<br />

a year. For these sub-graphs, we <strong>com</strong>puted<br />

a “raw” average for die size. Although this<br />

is still a weighted average, it isn’t as finely<br />

calculated as the averages that we plot on<br />

Figure 3: The average process node was derailed by a spike in 250-nm activity.<br />

other graphs in our analysis. Curiously,<br />

the moving average trend lines for both<br />

process nodes seem to show similar<br />

characteristics. (The 130-nm node does,<br />

however, have a few more years of “learning<br />

curve” built into it.) At these leading-edge<br />

production nodes, it does seem that a<br />

50 mm2 of die size is the manufacturing<br />

“sweet spot.” Although the average die size<br />

in Figure 2 may be drifting around 30<br />

mm2, the leading-edge production nodes<br />

are behaving as one would expect.<br />

Figure 5 captures the frequency of design<br />

investigations by the targeted number of<br />

metal interconnect layers deployed for<br />

leading-edge SoC designs. To look past<br />

the gyrations in the weighted average,<br />

we focus our attention on the six-month<br />

trailing average. Consistent with the past<br />

few months, we observe that we’re hovering<br />

in the 6.3 to 6.4 layers-of-interconnect<br />

range.<br />

One interesting sub-plot is that the number<br />

of 6LM design experiments bounced back<br />

sequentially in January 2007. It exceeded<br />

the number of 8LM designs.<br />

Figure 6 graphs the average for the highest<br />

targeted clock speed for each SoC design<br />

experiment tracked by our data. The<br />

average had rebounded nicely for two<br />

consecutive months only to drop back to<br />

about 200 MHz for January 2007. Despite<br />

extending the trailing average from four<br />

www.chipdesignmag.<strong>com</strong>/trends<br />

March 2007 •


© 2007 Extension Media. All rights reserved.<br />

to six months, the trend line still doesn’t<br />

depict any specific pattern or anticipated<br />

behavior.<br />

Previously, we’ve observed that a trend<br />

line of modestly higher clock speeds<br />

would support a thesis of more <strong>com</strong>plex<br />

SoC designs—as long as the highest<br />

clock speeds don’t spike up too much.<br />

Unfortunately, neither the average nor<br />

the moving average line up to provide any<br />

credence to this thesis. One intriguing<br />

development, however, is that the 100-<br />

to-250-MHz clock-speed range narrowly<br />

edged out the


© 2007 Extension Media. All rights reserved.<br />

bits by month. Our key observations are<br />

pretty much analogous to what we saw for<br />

gate-count usage:<br />

1. The under-1.0-Mbit category<br />

is predominant by design<br />

experiments.<br />

2. The 1.0-to-2.5-Mbit and 2.5-to-<br />

5.0-Mbit ranges have been picking<br />

up steam in recent months.<br />

Furthermore, the weighted-average trend<br />

line for embedded-memory usage has<br />

pretty much flatlined around 2.0 Mbits.<br />

Again, one would think that rising<br />

<strong>com</strong>plexity would feature a slightly “up<br />

and to the right” trend line. We shall<br />

continue to monitor for any changes going<br />

forward.<br />

A Continuing Look at CPU<br />

Semiconductor IP<br />

Figure 10 captures the use of multiple<br />

semiconductor-IP cores (non-memory)<br />

on a monthly basis. Given macro trends<br />

and intuitive logic, one would expect the<br />

trend line for multiple semiconductor-IP<br />

cores to be steadily increasing over time.<br />

With a sharp rise in various multi-IP-core<br />

instances, though, the weighted average<br />

jumped sharply for January 2007. We<br />

trust that this is a directional sign that is<br />

sustained rather than some sort of “catch<br />

up” in our monthly aggregated data set.<br />

Figure 11 dives into a second layer of<br />

detail: the use of unique CPU-core<br />

instances on a monthly basis layered with<br />

our weighted average trend line. In recent<br />

months, the data continues to show a slow<br />

but steady move toward one unique CPU<br />

core instance per design. Yet the average<br />

seems to be slowly nudging higher, which<br />

is what we would like to see. The fact that<br />

the average in recent months is still well<br />

below year-ago levels remains somewhat<br />

inexplicable at this juncture. (See Dave<br />

Bursky's section for more details).<br />

Figure 6: There is a lack of any trend-line in the highest clock speed.<br />

Figure 7: Total I/O signals are settling around 300.<br />

Figure 8: The average gate count is hovering between 2 and 3 million gates.<br />

www.chipdesignmag.<strong>com</strong>/trends<br />

March 2007 •


© 2007 Extension Media. All rights reserved.<br />

Conclusion: Complexity Rising,<br />

but Activity Moderating<br />

Overall design activity for the month<br />

of January 2007 continued to show<br />

sequential improvement from the depths<br />

that were reached in the fall of 2006. It<br />

appears, however, that we had a surge in<br />

activity at the 250-nm node. This surge<br />

didn’t necessarily help our various metrics<br />

of design <strong>com</strong>plexity: die size, process<br />

node, interconnect layers, highest clock<br />

speed, and pin counts.<br />

In this issue, we introduced graphs that<br />

captured <strong>com</strong>plexity based on gatecount<br />

and embedded-memory usage. In<br />

isolation, both metrics were somewhat<br />

disappointing in that they depicted<br />

relatively flattish behavior for the averages.<br />

The one consolation factor, which adds<br />

some credibility to the <strong>com</strong>plexity<br />

equation, was the apparent surge in nonmemory<br />

semiconductor-IP instances.<br />

Specifically, this surge was in unique<br />

CPU-core instances.<br />

In summary, the monthly data continues<br />

to be engaging in that it is dynamic with<br />

many moving parts. At the same time, it’s<br />

hard to decipher meaningful trends from<br />

monthly data points. Clearly, we don’t<br />

have all of the answers or the relevant<br />

explanations for the fluctuations in various<br />

data points (and con<strong>com</strong>itant weighted<br />

average trend lines).<br />

Figure 9: Average embedded memory is currently in the 2.0-Mbit range.<br />

Figure 10: Is there a spike or “catch up” in the usage of multiple cores?<br />

Erach Desai, Chief Analyst, <strong>Chip</strong> <strong>Design</strong><br />

<strong>Trends</strong><br />

Figure 11: Is this the beginning of an uptrend in the number of CPU cores per design?<br />

• March 2007<br />

<strong>Chip</strong> <strong>Design</strong> <strong>Trends</strong>


© 2007 Extension Media. All rights reserved.<br />

Behind the Numbers<br />

...Continued from page 1<br />

Ethernet ports, and more. Yet in the<br />

consumer market in particular, products<br />

tend to have short lives. As a result, designers<br />

are looking for ways to extend the life of the<br />

ASIC solutions that they’re crafting.<br />

One approach that’s being adopted by many<br />

<strong>com</strong>panies is to embed programmable CPU<br />

cores, which can be programmed to handle<br />

specific tasks. In last month’s issue of <strong>Chip</strong><br />

<strong>Design</strong> <strong>Trends</strong>, Erach Dasai’s analysis<br />

did note a decline in the use of embedded<br />

processor cores. Yet that decline may be a<br />

temporary market condition. It also could<br />

be a conclusion based on an interpretation<br />

of the data with which the semiconductor<br />

intellectual-property vendors don’t agree. “It’s<br />

very hard to really calculate the use of CPU<br />

cores,” explains Richard Wawrzyniak, Senior<br />

Analyst for ASICs at Semico Research<br />

Corp., a market research <strong>com</strong>pany based<br />

in Phoenix, Ariz. “There are many ways of<br />

counting the cores and what, for example,<br />

constitutes a CPU versus a dedicated<br />

processor for audio or video.”<br />

That view is echoed by Steve Liebson, the<br />

Technology Evangelist at Tensilica Inc., a<br />

provider of CPU-core IP in Santa Clara,<br />

Calif. “Tensilica provides generic CPU cores<br />

that the customer can configure as well as a<br />

few application-optimized cores, which are<br />

dedicated to audio and video processing, in<br />

its recently released Diamond series. These<br />

application-optimized cores are based<br />

on the <strong>com</strong>pany’s Xtensa CPU core, but<br />

include application-specific instructions to<br />

handle specific audio or video operations.<br />

The question is, do these cores get counted<br />

as CPU cores or as function-specific blocks<br />

of IP?” There is no absolute answer and<br />

thus each analyst may interpret the data<br />

differently.<br />

Figure 1. ASIC designs are transitioning from the use of a single control processor (a la<br />

the 1990s) to the use of distributed processing power in today’s <strong>com</strong>plex SoC designs<br />

(source: Tensilica Inc.).<br />

The traditional view of the ASIC or systemon-a-chip<br />

approach has changed over the last<br />

decade, explains Steve Roddy, Tensilica’s Vice<br />

President of Marketing. In 1997, the <strong>com</strong>mon<br />

approach included a general control processor<br />

and dedicated hardwired logic to perform<br />

audio, video, and other support functions.<br />

In 2007, however, the small features used<br />

in today’s processes allow very area-efficient<br />

and high-performance CPU cores to be used<br />

to perform many tasks that were previously<br />

done by hardwired logic (see Figure 1).<br />

Each processing block can execute its own<br />

firmware, thereby allowing designers to<br />

change or enhance the functions in each block<br />

independently just by changing the firmware.<br />

This approach eliminates costly silicon respins<br />

and can even allow field upgrades.<br />

In another example of core counting,<br />

ARM Ltd. of Cambridge, England offers<br />

its AMR11MP core, explains Dave Steer,<br />

Director of Segment Marketing. “This core<br />

actually includes anywhere from one to four<br />

CPUs, but is treated as a single block of IP.<br />

But how does it get counted—as a single core<br />

or as multiple cores? The debate will continue<br />

for years as to how to count such blocks<br />

of IP.” While also looking at parallel CPU<br />

approaches, designers at ARC International<br />

have developed single-instruction/multipledata<br />

blocks of IP based on its ARC750<br />

processor core. The <strong>com</strong>pany also offers<br />

several application-optimized cores targeted<br />

at media-processing and audio applications.<br />

What ARM does see, though, is an increase in<br />

the number of instances of its processor being<br />

used on new ASIC designs. “The small size<br />

and low power of the latest cores in the Cortex<br />

family, for example, allow designers to use<br />

multiple cores—each tackling an independent<br />

task on the ASIC. By using programmable<br />

cores, designers can also ‘future-proof ’ their<br />

ASIC silicon since changes to the firmware<br />

that executes on these deeply embedded<br />

CPUs can be downloaded to upgrade the<br />

functionality or fix a bug.”<br />

ARM also has been enjoying an increase<br />

in the number of new licensees—although<br />

that rate of increase has slowed since the<br />

<strong>com</strong>pany already has licenses with most<br />

major <strong>com</strong>panies, said Steer. The quarterby-quarter<br />

results for the last three quarters<br />

of 2006, for example, show increases in the<br />

total number of licenses of 21, 14, and 15<br />

for Q2, Q3, and Q4, respectively (see Figure<br />

2). These licenses are split between new<br />

licenses, derivative licenses, and upgrades<br />

of existing licenses. ARM splits these<br />

numbers even finer by looking at multi-use,<br />

www.chipdesignmag.<strong>com</strong>/trends<br />

March 2007 •


© 2007 Extension Media. All rights reserved.<br />

Figure 2. The continuing growth in new-processor IP licenses<br />

at ARM Ltd. shows a decrease in new licenses in the last<br />

two quarters. But many customers are taking out additional<br />

licenses for the <strong>com</strong>pany’s next-generation cores.<br />

per-use, and term licenses (not shown).<br />

According to Steer, about one-third are<br />

new licensees. About one-quarter of all the<br />

new licenses are from customers upgrading<br />

their existing license arrangements to use<br />

some of the new-generation cores to either<br />

replace the older cores or to use them in<br />

conjunction with the older cores.<br />

Another IP provider experiencing an<br />

increase in licenses, MIPS Technologies<br />

Inc., has seen its licensing revenue increase<br />

about 13% quarter over quarter with nine<br />

new license agreements and seven new<br />

customers. The <strong>com</strong>pany’s totals are now 117<br />

licensed customers and almost 200 license<br />

agreements. In its fiscal second quarter of<br />

2007, the <strong>com</strong>pany recorded shipments of<br />

89 million units—up 36% year over year—<br />

with a total of 330 million units shipped in<br />

the prior four quarters. It also is seeing strong<br />

acceptance of the MIPS32 24K family cores,<br />

which now have 33 licensees.<br />

The use of multicore architectures also<br />

has exploded in the entertainment market.<br />

Each of the latest game consoles employs a<br />

multicore solution. Microsoft’s Xbox360<br />

and the Nintendo Wii both have processors<br />

with multiple PowerPC cores, while the<br />

Sony PS3 has a processor with up to nine<br />

cores (a Power processor and<br />

eight identical programmable<br />

single-instruction/multipledata<br />

processing engines).<br />

Cell phones also are moving<br />

to multiple-CPU-core<br />

solutions. ARM already<br />

estimates that on average,<br />

there are about 1.5 ARM<br />

processors in each cell phone.<br />

As the phones include more<br />

and more functionality,<br />

they’ll have to include more<br />

processors.<br />

In such handheld<br />

applications, power<br />

consumption is a major concern. <strong>Chip</strong> power<br />

is directly related to operating frequency. As<br />

a result, the lower the frequency, the lower<br />

the power consumption and thus the longer<br />

the battery life. One approach to adding<br />

more functionality leverages the fact that by<br />

running a processor faster, it can do more. In<br />

battery-powered systems, however, the result<br />

is diminishing returns. The higher speed<br />

translates into higher power consumption<br />

and thus shorter battery life. The solution<br />

<strong>com</strong>es from the old military tactic referred<br />

to as “divide and conquer:” Use multiple<br />

“slower” CPU cores to divide the <strong>com</strong>pute<br />

tasks into smaller blocks. Running the CPUs<br />

slower reduces the power consumption. For<br />

example, two cores running at 100 MHz<br />

use less power than one core running at 200<br />

MHz—even though more logic might be<br />

needed to implement the multiple cores.<br />

Software for all the embedded programmable<br />

engines is another major concern, notes<br />

Wawrzyniak. New software tools are<br />

needed to allow programmers to rapidly<br />

develop the programming for all of the onchip<br />

processors. In addition to the tools,<br />

such as <strong>com</strong>pilers and debuggers, operating<br />

systems must be designed to handle the high<br />

levels of parallelism. ASIC design teams<br />

are increasingly be<strong>com</strong>ing dominated by<br />

software engineers, observes Wawrzyniak.<br />

Already, many <strong>com</strong>panies report that more<br />

than half of their development teams consist<br />

of software engineers. These engineers<br />

must develop the firmware and application<br />

software needed to execute the intended<br />

applications—everything from soft codecs for<br />

audio to image processing and much more.<br />

In addition to the CPU cores used in SoC<br />

designs, there also is a growing market for<br />

embeddable CPUs in field-programmablegate-array<br />

(FPGA) fabrics. Although a<br />

few FPGA vendors have integrated “hard”<br />

CPU cores into the FPGA silicon, the most<br />

popular approach is to use “soft” cores. These<br />

register-transfer-level (RTL) descriptions<br />

of the processor are integrated into the rest<br />

of the logic and then synthesized with all<br />

the other logic. The resulting configuration<br />

can be downloaded into the FPGA<br />

configuration memory as a bitstream.<br />

FPGA vendors, such as Actel, Altera, and<br />

Xilinx, have developed their own softprocessor<br />

cores. They also have allowed<br />

third-party CPU IP to be incorporated<br />

into the logic configuration. The use of the<br />

FPGA vendor’s home-grown soft cores is<br />

hard to track, as there are no royalty fees<br />

and customers typically don’t tell the world<br />

what they’re doing inside the FPGAs. With<br />

that said, however, Altera has gathered<br />

some statistics. Many of its customers are<br />

using more than one instance of its Nios II<br />

family of embedded processor cores.<br />

Is there a slowdown in the use of embedded<br />

CPU cores? I don’t think so. Perhaps<br />

there’s a small lull as <strong>com</strong>panies transition<br />

from generation to generation of the cores.<br />

Overall, however, the momentum seems<br />

to be sustained.<br />

Dave Bursky is a Contributing Editor for <strong>Chip</strong><br />

<strong>Design</strong> and <strong>Chip</strong> <strong>Design</strong> <strong>Trends</strong>. Bursky also<br />

is the Technical Editorial Manager at Maxim<br />

Integrated Products Inc. in Sunnyvale, Calif.<br />

• March 2007<br />

<strong>Chip</strong> <strong>Design</strong> <strong>Trends</strong>


© 2007 Extension Media. All rights reserved.<br />

IP <strong>Trends</strong><br />

...Continued from page 1<br />

software and tools. IP was considered<br />

just a way for design firms to generate<br />

extra in<strong>com</strong>e. Although IP had value,<br />

it wasn’t a technology that justified the<br />

attention of a <strong>com</strong>pany that had mastered<br />

EDA—the world’s most <strong>com</strong>plex software<br />

application.<br />

Against expectations, though, IP has<br />

turned out to be an important and growing<br />

element of <strong>Synopsys</strong>’ business strategy.<br />

According to the <strong>com</strong>pany’s annual report,<br />

its IP business now accounts for $85<br />

million of <strong>Synopsys</strong>’ $1.1 billion yearly<br />

revenue. The <strong>com</strong>pany is heavily deployed<br />

in interface and I/O IP—a segment that<br />

continues to create new opportunity,<br />

says Semico Analyst Rich Wawrzyniak.<br />

“Evolving standards will continue to<br />

raise the bar, creating opportunity for<br />

<strong>com</strong>panies deployed in this segment,” he<br />

states. “Today’s <strong>com</strong>puting environments<br />

are all about <strong>com</strong>munications and as long<br />

as that remains true, we’re going to see<br />

continuing activity in this area.”<br />

<strong>Synopsys</strong>’ Group Director of IP and<br />

Services Marketing, John Koeter, agrees.<br />

“With wireless USB poised to take off<br />

and new protocols like PCI Express Plus<br />

and USB 3.0 around the corner, there’s<br />

going to be increased demand for this<br />

type of IP,” he says. Koeter notes that<br />

<strong>Synopsys</strong> employs about 400 people in its<br />

IP group—many of which are working on<br />

new protocols. “This represents a major<br />

R&D investment,” he emphasizes. “We’re<br />

obviously serious.” The importance of IP<br />

to <strong>Synopsys</strong> can also be gauged by the<br />

<strong>com</strong>pany’s investment in testing, states<br />

Navraj Nandra, <strong>Synopsys</strong>’ Director of<br />

Marketing for Mixed Signal IP. “Interface<br />

and I/O IP must undergo extensive<br />

testing to make sure that it <strong>com</strong>plies with<br />

IP INTEREST MAP<br />

Every month, we assess trends in the chip-design <strong>com</strong>munity based upon designer<br />

usage of a leading IP portal. Data from the last three months illustrates that onchip<br />

bus IP—the most important element of I/O and interface IP—remained<br />

second only to the ever-popular digital-core and analog/mixed-signal IP segments.<br />

With <strong>Synopsys</strong> moving heavily into mixed signal, the <strong>com</strong>pany will likely be<strong>com</strong>e<br />

a player in two of the three most important IP segments.<br />

standards, which is why we’ve now got<br />

hardware testing labs dotted around the<br />

U.S. and Canada,” he says.<br />

Yet not everyone agrees that the interface<br />

and I/O segment is that attractive. Former<br />

Dataquest Analyst Gary Smith, who is<br />

currently an independent consultant at<br />

Gary Smith EDA, notes that as each<br />

protocol <strong>com</strong>es out, there’s a limited<br />

amount of time that <strong>Synopsys</strong> can charge<br />

a premium for the related IP. “<strong>Synopsys</strong><br />

can offer it standalone as long as the<br />

market will bear. But usually by nine<br />

months, it has be<strong>com</strong>e a <strong>com</strong>modity. And<br />

then they move it into their IP Library<br />

offering, <strong>Design</strong>Ware,” he explains. For the<br />

<strong>com</strong>pany, this is certainly not a disaster.<br />

“These IP Libraries do make good money<br />

and are a major <strong>com</strong>petitive advantage for<br />

<strong>Synopsys</strong>,” says Smith. But the tendency<br />

to be<strong>com</strong>e <strong>com</strong>moditized makes this<br />

type of IP less attractive than other, more<br />

specialized segments like Digital Core. The<br />

specialized segments <strong>com</strong>mand premium<br />

royalties over a period of many years (see<br />

the Sidebar: “IP Interest Map”).<br />

<strong>Synopsys</strong> is already laying the groundwork<br />

to get into more resilient segments of<br />

the IP business, however. According to<br />

Nandra, over a third of the <strong>com</strong>pany’s<br />

IP engineers are working on numerous<br />

mixed-signal projects. In addition, the<br />

<strong>com</strong>pany is actively developing designs for<br />

new memory formats like double-data-rate<br />

DRAM (DDR2). While <strong>Synopsys</strong> has no<br />

declared plans to enter other segments of<br />

the IP business, such as Digital Core, the<br />

<strong>com</strong>pany’s long experience in acquiring<br />

technology firms leaves many options<br />

open.<br />

Geoffrey James, Contributing Editor, <strong>Chip</strong><br />

<strong>Design</strong> <strong>Trends</strong><br />

www.chipdesignmag.<strong>com</strong>/trends<br />

March 2007 •


Performance, Power,<br />

and Area<br />

...Continued from page 1<br />

© 2007 Extension Media. All rights reserved.<br />

Moving averages are a statistical means to<br />

track changes over a specified time period.<br />

They allow one to spot trends by flattening<br />

out large fluctuations. When used on a<br />

monthly basis, these moving averages will<br />

help to show whether the number of design<br />

profiles is increasing or decreasing. Each<br />

month’s numbers are added to the average<br />

and the oldest numbers are dropped, which<br />

causes the average to “move” over time. By<br />

way of a technical analogy, moving averages<br />

are similar to the lowpass filters used in<br />

signal processing. They help to eliminate<br />

the higher fluctuations.<br />

Figure 1<br />

No one method of forecasting is foolproof.<br />

Yet the upward trend in the moving average<br />

analysis in Figure 2—when <strong>com</strong>bined with<br />

the historical patterns in Figure 1—suggests<br />

a continuing upward tendency for near-term<br />

design-profile investigations. Historically,<br />

our data suggests that design-investigation<br />

activity peaks around the March timeframe.<br />

Naturally, we’ll examine this trend more<br />

closely in the <strong>com</strong>ing months.<br />

As mentioned earlier, all three key technical<br />

parameters—power below 0.11 W, clock<br />

speeds below 100 MHz, and die area smaller<br />

than 50 mm squared—showed a significant<br />

increase in interest. But one trend may be<br />

deceiving: While designers performed more<br />

tradeoffs at power levels at or below 0.11 W,<br />

a significant number of designers used power<br />

levels between 0.25 to 1 W (see Tables). In<br />

fact, the power range from 0.25 to 1.0 W<br />

saw a fourfold increase in interest—from<br />

279 in December 2006 to 1155 in January<br />

2007. This would suggest a rise in more<br />

power-intensive applications in both mobile<br />

and fixed devices. In future issues, this data<br />

will be correlated to technology nodes and<br />

other pertinent metrics.<br />

Figure 2<br />

When it’s added to our growing database<br />

of historical trends, this month’s data<br />

suggests that the months through March<br />

2007 will be very significant for the chip<br />

designers and managers who are exploring<br />

new product designs. Significant trends<br />

include a continuing interest in smaller<br />

die sizes (less than 50 mm sq.), a leveling<br />

off of clock speeds, and an unexpected<br />

increase in total power investigations to<br />

include the 0.25-to-1-W range.<br />

John Blyler, Editorial Director<br />

10 • March 2007 <strong>Chip</strong> <strong>Design</strong> <strong>Trends</strong>


© 2007 Extension Media. All rights reserved.<br />

Jan 06 Feb 06 Mar 06 April 06 May 06 June 06 July 06 Aug 06 Sept 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07<br />

Total <strong>Design</strong> Profiles 1,248 1,254 1,927 1,162 1,574 1,901 2,113 1,496 951 1,571 812 1,439 2,658<br />

<strong>Chip</strong> Power ≤ 0.11 W (Equivalent) 288 379 493 280 223 272 798 505 300 829 280 462 619<br />

Avg CLK Speed ≤ 100 MHz (Equivalent)<br />

689 767 1,011 739 755 1,232 1,382 911 743 1215 565 612 1,808<br />

Die Area < 50 mm sq. (Equivalent) 974 1,108 1,598 890 839 1,431 1,668 1,194 771 1357 676 1,082 2,268<br />

Percent change from previous month<br />

Total <strong>Design</strong> Profiles -40% 0% 54% -40% 35% 21% 11% -29% -36% 65% -48% 77% 85%<br />

<strong>Chip</strong> Power ≤ 0.11 W -6% 33% 42% -15% -20% 22% 193% -37% -41% 176% -66% 65% 34%<br />

Avg CLK Speed ≤ 100 MHz -25% 11% 32% -27% 2% 63% 12% -34% -18% 64% -53% 8% 195%<br />

Die Area ≤ 50 mm sq. -26% 15% 57% -16% -5% 71% 17% -28% -35% 76% -50% 60% 110%<br />

By Total <strong>Chip</strong> Power<br />

<strong>Design</strong>s Tracked by Power 749 761 1,277 1,156 1,574 1,901 2,112 1,496 950 1,570 812 1,439 2,657<br />

≤ 0.11 W 173 230 327 279 223 272 798 505 300 829 280 462 619<br />

0.25 W to 1.00 W 298 361 530 207 477 649 631 396 371 318 245 279 1,155<br />

1.50 W to 4.00 W 181 103 227 466 308 639 478 406 218 304 276 428 679<br />

5.00 W to 15.00 W 89 58 175 167 216 244 174 156 53 104 11 100 174<br />

> 20.00 W 8 9 18 37 350 97 31 33 8 15 0 170 30<br />

≤ 0.11 W (Equivalent to total) 288 379 493 280 223 272 798 505 300 829 280 462 619<br />

<strong>Chip</strong> <strong>Design</strong> <strong>Trends</strong><br />

Data, Analysis, and Benchmarking on SOC <strong>Design</strong><br />

www.chipdesignmag.<strong>com</strong>/trends<br />

Copyright © 2006 by Extension Media LLC. All rights reserved. Reproduction in<br />

any form whatsoever is forbidden without express permission of copyright owner.<br />

Editorial Staff<br />

Editor-in-Chief<br />

John Blyler (503) 614-1082<br />

jblyler@extensionmedia.<strong>com</strong><br />

Erach Desai, Chief Analyst<br />

erach@desaisive.<strong>com</strong><br />

Dave Bursky, Contributing Editor<br />

dbursky@extensionmedia.<strong>com</strong><br />

Geoffrey James, Contributing Editor<br />

gjames@extensionmedia.<strong>com</strong><br />

Clive “Max” Maxfield, i<strong>Design</strong> Editor<br />

cmaxfield@extensionmedia.<strong>com</strong><br />

Editorial Board<br />

Tom Anderson, Consultant • Cheryl Ajluni, Technical Consultant, Custom<br />

Media Solutions • Karen Bartleson, Standards Program Manager,<br />

<strong>Synopsys</strong> • Chuck Byers, Director Communications, TSMC • Pallab<br />

Chatterjee, Consultant, Silicon Map • Rich Faris, Marketing Director, Real<br />

Intent • Kathryn Kranen, CEO, Jasper <strong>Design</strong> Automation • Barry Marsh,<br />

Vice President Marketing, Actel • Tom Moxon, Consultant, Moxon <strong>Design</strong><br />

• Walter Ng, Senior Director, <strong>Design</strong> Services, Chartered Semiconductor •<br />

Scott Sandler, CEO, Novas Software • Steve Schulz, President, SI2 • Adam<br />

Traidman, CEO, <strong>Chip</strong> Estimate<br />

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www.chipdesignmag.<strong>com</strong>/trends March 2007 • 11

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