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Panel Data - Memorial University of Newfoundland

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ECON 4551<br />

Econometrics II<br />

<strong>Memorial</strong> <strong>University</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Newfoundland</strong><br />

<strong>Panel</strong> <strong>Data</strong> Models<br />

Adapted from Vera Tabakova’s notes


• 15.1 Grunfeld’s Investment <strong>Data</strong><br />

• 15.2 Sets <strong>of</strong> Regression Equations<br />

• 15.3 Seemingly Unrelated Regressions<br />

• 15.4 The Fixed Effects Model<br />

• 15.4 The Random Effects Model<br />

• Extensions RCM, dealing with endogeneity when we have<br />

static variables<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-2


The different types <strong>of</strong> panel data sets can be described as:<br />

• “long and narrow,” with “long” time dimension and “narrow”, few<br />

cross sectional units;<br />

• “short and wide,” many units observed over a short period <strong>of</strong> time;<br />

• “long and wide,” indicating that both N and T are relatively large.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-3


( , )<br />

INV = f V K<br />

it it it<br />

(15.1)<br />

The data consist <strong>of</strong> T = 20 years <strong>of</strong> data (1935-1954) for<br />

N = 10 large firms. Value <strong>of</strong> stock, proxy for expected pr<strong>of</strong>its<br />

Let y it = INV it and x 2it = V it and x 3it = K it<br />

Capital stock, proxy for desired permanent<br />

Capital stock<br />

y =β +β x +β x + e<br />

it 1it 2it 2it 3it 3it it<br />

(15.2)<br />

Notice the subindices! <br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-4


INV =β +β V +β K + e t = 1, , 20<br />

GE, t 1 2 GE, t 3 GE, t GE,<br />

t<br />

INV =β +β V +β K + e t = 1, , 20<br />

WE, t 1 2 WE, t 3 WE, t WE,<br />

t<br />

(15.3a)<br />

yit =β<br />

1+β 2x2it +β<br />

3x3it + eit<br />

i= 1, 2; t = 1, , 20<br />

(15.3b)<br />

For simplicity we focus on only two firms<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

GRETL:<br />

smpl firm = 3 || firm = 8 --restrict<br />

Slide 15-5


INV =β +β V +β K + e t = 1, , 20<br />

GE, t 1, GE 2, GE GE, t 3, GE GE, t GE,<br />

t<br />

INV =β +β V +β K + e t = 1, , 20<br />

WE, t 1, WE 2, WE WE, t 3, WE WE, t WE,<br />

t<br />

(15.4a)<br />

yit =β<br />

1i +β<br />

2ix2it +β<br />

3ix3it + eit<br />

i= 1, 2; t = 1, ,<br />

20<br />

(15.4b)<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-6


( ) ( )<br />

2<br />

( )<br />

E e = 0 var e =σ cov e , e = 0<br />

GE, t GE, t GE GE, t GE,<br />

s<br />

( ) ( )<br />

2<br />

( )<br />

E e = 0 var e =σ cov e , e = 0<br />

WE, t WE, t WE WE, t WE,<br />

s<br />

(15.5)<br />

Assumption (15.5) says that the errors in both investment functions<br />

(i) have zero mean,<br />

(ii) are homoskedastic with constant variance, and<br />

(iii) are not correlated over time; autocorrelation does not exist.<br />

2 2<br />

The two equations do have different error variances σ and σ .<br />

GE<br />

WE<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

GRETL<br />

ols Inv const V K<br />

modtest –panel<br />

wrong in posted notes!!!<br />

Slide 15-7


Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-8


• Let D i be a dummy variable equal to 1 for the Westinghouse<br />

observations and 0 for the General Electric observations. If the<br />

variances are the same for both firms then we can run:<br />

INV =β +δ D +β V +δ D × V +β K +δ D × K + e<br />

it 1, GE 1 i 2, GE it 2 i it 3, GE it 3 i it it<br />

(15.6)<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-9


So we have two separate stories<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-10


( )<br />

cov e , e = σ<br />

GE, t WE, t GE,<br />

WE<br />

(15.7)<br />

This assumption says that the error terms in the two equations, at the<br />

same point in time, are correlated. This kind <strong>of</strong> correlation is called a<br />

contemporaneous correlation.<br />

Under this assumption, the joint regression would be better than the<br />

separate simple OLS regressions<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-11


(i)<br />

(ii)<br />

Econometric s<strong>of</strong>tware includes commands for SUR (or SURE) that<br />

carry out the following steps:<br />

Estimate the equations separately using least squares;<br />

Use the least squares residuals from step (i) to estimate<br />

σ , σ and σ<br />

2 2<br />

GE WE GE,<br />

WE<br />

;<br />

(iii) Use the estimates from step (ii) to estimate the two equations jointly<br />

within a generalized least squares framework.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-12


Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-13


* Open and summarize data from grunfeld2.gdt (which, luckily for us, is already in<br />

wide format!!!)<br />

open "c:\Program Files\gretl\data\poe\grunfeld2.gdt"<br />

system name="Grunfeld"<br />

equation inv_ge const v_ge k_ge<br />

equation inv_we const v_we k_we<br />

end system<br />

estimate "Grunfeld" method=sur --geomean<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-14


In GRETL the restrict command can be used to impose the cross-equation<br />

restrictions on a system <strong>of</strong> equations that has been previously defined and<br />

named.<br />

The set <strong>of</strong> restrictions is started by restrict and terminated with end restrict.<br />

Each restriction in the set is expressed as an equation. Put the linear combination<br />

<strong>of</strong> parameters to be tested on the left-hand-side <strong>of</strong> the equality and a numeric<br />

value on the right.<br />

Parameters are referenced using b[i,j] where i refers to the equation number in<br />

the system, and j the parameter number.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-15


estrict "Grunfeld"<br />

b[1,1]-b[2,1]=0<br />

b[1,2]-b[2,2]=0<br />

b[1,3]-b[2,3]=0<br />

end restrict<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-16


There are two situations where separate least squares estimation is<br />

just as good as the SUR technique :<br />

(i)<br />

(ii)<br />

when the equation errors are not contemporaneously correlated;<br />

when the same (the “very same”) explanatory variables appear in<br />

each equation.<br />

If the explanatory variables in each equation are different, then a test<br />

to see if the correlation between the errors is significantly different<br />

from zero is <strong>of</strong> interest.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-17


• (although text reads 0.729):<br />

r<br />

2<br />

( )<br />

( )( )<br />

2<br />

2<br />

σˆ GE,<br />

WE<br />

207.5871<br />

GE, WE 2 2<br />

σGEσWE<br />

= = =<br />

ˆ ˆ 777.4463 104.3079<br />

0.53139<br />

σ<br />

20 20<br />

1 1<br />

ˆ = ∑eˆ eˆ = ∑eˆ eˆ<br />

−<br />

GEWE , GEt , WEt , GEt , WEt ,<br />

T −K t 1 T 3<br />

GE<br />

T −K WE = t=<br />

1<br />

In this case we have 3 parameters in each equation so:<br />

K<br />

GE<br />

= K = 3.<br />

WE<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-18


Testing for correlated errors for two equations:<br />

H : σ = 0<br />

0 GE,<br />

WE<br />

LM = Tr ∼χ under H .<br />

2 2<br />

GE, WE (1) 0<br />

LM = 10.628 > 3.84 (Breusch-Pagan test <strong>of</strong> independence: chi2(1))<br />

Hence we reject the null hypothesis <strong>of</strong> no correlation between the<br />

errors and conclude that there are potential efficiency gains from<br />

estimating the two investment equations jointly using SUR.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-19


Testing for correlated errors for three equations:<br />

H0 : σ<br />

12<br />

=σ<br />

13<br />

=σ<br />

23<br />

= 0<br />

( )<br />

LM = T r + r + r χ<br />

2 2 2 2<br />

12 13 23 (3)<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-20


Testing for correlated errors for M equations:<br />

M<br />

i−1<br />

LM T r<br />

= ∑∑<br />

i= 2 j=<br />

1<br />

2<br />

ij<br />

Under the null hypothesis that there are no contemporaneous<br />

correlations, this LM statistic has a χ 2 -distribution with M(M–1)/2<br />

degrees <strong>of</strong> freedom, in large samples.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-21


H : β =β , β =β , β =β<br />

0 1, GE 1, WE 2, GE 2, WE 3, GE 3, WE<br />

(15.8)<br />

Most econometric s<strong>of</strong>tware will perform an F-test and/or a Wald χ 2 –test; in<br />

the context <strong>of</strong> SUR equations both tests are large sample approximate tests.<br />

The F-statistic has J numerator degrees <strong>of</strong> freedom and (MT−K)<br />

denominator degrees <strong>of</strong> freedom, where J is the number <strong>of</strong> hypotheses, M is<br />

the number <strong>of</strong> equations, and K is the total number <strong>of</strong> coefficients in the<br />

whole system, and T is the number <strong>of</strong> time series observations per equation.<br />

The χ 2 -statistic has J degrees <strong>of</strong> freedom.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-22


• SUR is OK when the panel is long and narrow, not when it is short and wide.<br />

Consider instead…<br />

y =β +β x +β x + e<br />

it 1it 2it 2it 3it 3it it<br />

(15.9)<br />

We cannot consistently estimate the 3×N×T parameters in (15.9) with<br />

only NT total observations. But we can impose some more<br />

structure…<br />

β =β , β =β , β =β<br />

1it 1i 2it 2 3it<br />

3<br />

(15.10)<br />

We consider only one-way effects and assume a common slope<br />

parameters across cross-sectional units<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-23


All behavioral differences between individual firms and over time are<br />

captured by the intercept. Individual intercepts are included to<br />

“control” for these firm specific differences.<br />

y =β +β x +β x + e<br />

it 1i 2 2it 3 3it it<br />

(15.11)<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-24


⎧1 i= 1 ⎧1 i= 2 ⎧1 i=<br />

3<br />

D1 i<br />

= ⎨ , D2i = ⎨ , D3i<br />

= ⎨ , etc.<br />

⎩0 otherwise ⎩0 otherwise ⎩0 otherwise<br />

INV =β D +β D + +β<br />

D +β V +β K + e<br />

it 11 1i 12 2i 1,10 10i 2 2it 3 3it it<br />

(15.12)<br />

This specification is sometimes called the least squares dummy<br />

variable model, or the fixed effects model.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-25


Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-26


H<br />

H<br />

: β =β = =β<br />

0 11 12 1N<br />

: the β are not all equal<br />

1 1i<br />

(15.13)<br />

These N–1= 9 joint null hypotheses are tested using the usual F-test<br />

statistic. In the restricted model all the intercept parameters are equal.<br />

If we call their common value β 1 , then the restricted model is:<br />

INV =β +β V +β K + e<br />

it 1 2 it 3 it it<br />

So this is just OLS, the pooled model<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-27


eg inv v k<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-28


F<br />

=<br />

( R<br />

−<br />

U)<br />

SSE ( NT − K )<br />

SSE SSE J<br />

U<br />

( − )<br />

522855 ( 200 −12)<br />

1749128 522855 9<br />

= =<br />

48.99<br />

We reject the null hypothesis that the intercept parameters for all<br />

firms are equal. We conclude that there are differences in firm<br />

intercepts, and that the data should not be pooled into a single model<br />

with a common intercept parameter.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-29


yit =β<br />

1i +β<br />

2x2it +β<br />

3x3it + eit<br />

t = 1, ,<br />

T<br />

(15.14)<br />

1 T it 1i 2 2it 3 3it it<br />

t 1<br />

( y x x e )<br />

∑ =β +β +β +<br />

T =<br />

T T T T<br />

1 1 1 1<br />

y = y =β +β x +β x + e<br />

∑ ∑ ∑ ∑<br />

i it 1i 2 2it 3 3it it<br />

T t= 1 T t= 1 T t= 1 T t=<br />

1<br />

(15.15)<br />

=β +β x +β x + e<br />

1i 2 2i 3 3i i<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-30


y =β +β x +β x + e<br />

it 1i 2 2it 3 3it it<br />

− ( y =β +β x +β x + e)<br />

i 1i 2 2i 3 3i i<br />

(15.16)<br />

y − y =β ( x − x ) +β ( x − x ) + ( e −e)<br />

it i 2 2it 2i 3 3it 3i it i<br />

y =β x +β x + e<br />

it 2 it 3 it it<br />

(15.17)<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-31


Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-32


Usually, there is no interest in the intercepts….<br />

INV .1098 .3106<br />

it = V it + K<br />

(se*) (.0116) (.0169)<br />

it<br />

(15.18)<br />

2<br />

*<br />

( )<br />

σ ˆ<br />

e<br />

= SSE NT −2<br />

( NT ) ( NT N )<br />

−2 − − 2 = 198 188 = 1.02625<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-33


Some s<strong>of</strong>tware comes up with one sometimes though…<br />

Or if wanted you should be able to retrieve the individual ones<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-34


y = b + bx + bx<br />

i 1i 2 2i 3 3i<br />

b1 i<br />

= yi −bx 2 2i − bx<br />

3 3i<br />

i= 1, ,<br />

N<br />

(15.19)<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-35


ONE PROBLEM: Even with the trick <strong>of</strong> using the within estimator, we still<br />

implicitly (even if no longer explicitly) include N-1 dummy variables in our<br />

model (not N, since we remove the intercept), so we use up N-1 degrees <strong>of</strong><br />

freedom.<br />

It might not be then the most efficient way to estimate the common slope<br />

ANOTHER ONE. By using deviations from the means, the procedure wipes<br />

out all the static variables, whose effects might be <strong>of</strong> interest<br />

In order to overcome this problem, we can consider the random effects/or error<br />

components model<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-36


• In the RE model, the individual firm differences are thought<br />

to represent a random variation about some average<br />

intercept for the individual in the sample<br />

• Rather than a separate fixed effect for each firm, we now<br />

estimate an overall intercept that represents this average<br />

• Implicitly, the regression function for the sample firms vary<br />

randomly around this average.<br />

• The variability <strong>of</strong> the individual effects is captured by a new<br />

parameter, which is the variance <strong>of</strong> the random effect.<br />

• The larger this parameter is, the more variation you find in<br />

the implicit regression functions for the firms.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition


β =β+u<br />

1i<br />

1<br />

i<br />

Average intercept<br />

(15.20)<br />

( ) ( )<br />

2<br />

= 0, cov , = 0, var ( ) = σ<br />

E u u u u<br />

i i j i u<br />

(15.21)<br />

y =β +β x +β x + e<br />

it 1i 2 2it 3 3it it<br />

Randomness <strong>of</strong> the intercept<br />

( )<br />

= β + u +β x +β x + e<br />

1 i 2 2it 3 3it it<br />

Usual error<br />

(15.22)<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-38


( )<br />

y =β +β x +β x + e + u<br />

it 1 2 2it 3 3it it i<br />

=β +β x +β x + v<br />

1 2 2it 3 3it it<br />

a composite error<br />

(15.23)<br />

vit = ui + eit<br />

(15.24)<br />

Because the random effects regression error has two components, one<br />

for the individual and one for the regression, the random effects<br />

model is <strong>of</strong>ten called an error components model.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-39


( ) = ( + ) = ( ) + ( ) = 0+ 0=<br />

0<br />

E v E u e E u E e<br />

it i it i it<br />

( v ) var ( u e )<br />

σ = var = +<br />

2<br />

v it i it<br />

v has zero mean<br />

( u ) ( e ) ( u e )<br />

= var + var + 2cov ,<br />

=σ +σ<br />

2 2<br />

u e<br />

i it i it<br />

v has constant variance<br />

If there is no correlation between<br />

the individual effects and the<br />

error term<br />

(15.25)<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-40


But now there are several correlations that can be considered.<br />

• The correlation between two individuals, i and j, at the same<br />

point in time, t. The covariance for this case is given by<br />

( v v ) = Evv = E⎡( u+ e)( u + e )<br />

cov , ( )<br />

it jt it jt i it j jt<br />

⎣<br />

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )<br />

= E uu + E ue + E e u + E e e<br />

i j i jt it j it jt<br />

= 0+ 0+ 0+ 0=<br />

0<br />

⎤<br />

⎦<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-41


• The correlation between errors on the same individual (i) at<br />

different points in time, t and s. The covariance for this case is<br />

given by<br />

( v v ) E v v E ( u e )( u e )<br />

cov<br />

it<br />

,<br />

is<br />

= (<br />

it is)<br />

= ⎡ ⎣ i<br />

+<br />

it i<br />

+<br />

is<br />

⎤⎦<br />

(<br />

2<br />

) i ( i is ) ( it i ) ( it is )<br />

= E u + E ue + E e u + E e e<br />

(15.26)<br />

=σ + 0+ 0+ 0=σ<br />

2 2<br />

u<br />

u<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-42


• The correlation between errors for different individuals in<br />

different time periods. The covariance for this case is<br />

( v v ) = Evv = E⎡( u+ e)( u + e )<br />

cov , ( )<br />

it js it js i it j js<br />

⎣<br />

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )<br />

= E uu + E ue + E e u + E e e<br />

i j i js it j it js<br />

= 0+ 0+ 0+ 0=<br />

0<br />

⎤<br />

⎦<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-43


cov( v , v ) σ<br />

ρ= corr( vit<br />

, vis<br />

) = =<br />

var( v ) var( ) σ +σ<br />

it<br />

2<br />

it is u<br />

2 2<br />

vis<br />

u e<br />

(15.27)<br />

The errors are correlated over time for a given individual, but are otherwise<br />

uncorrelated<br />

This correlation does not dampen over time as in the AR1 model<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-44


y =β +β x +β x + e<br />

it 1 2 2it 3 3it it<br />

LM<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

e = y −b−bx −bx<br />

ˆit it 1 2 2 it 3 3 it<br />

2<br />

⎧ N T<br />

⎛<br />

ˆ<br />

⎞ ⎫<br />

∑∑eit<br />

NT ⎪<br />

⎜ ⎟<br />

i= 1 t=<br />

1 ⎪<br />

=<br />

⎝ ⎠<br />

⎨ −1<br />

N T ⎬<br />

2( T −1)<br />

⎪<br />

2<br />

∑∑eˆ<br />

it ⎪<br />

⎪ i= 1 t=<br />

1<br />

⎩<br />

⎪<br />

⎭<br />

(15.28)<br />

GRETL shows this Breusch and Pagan<br />

Lagrange multiplier test for random effects by<br />

default<br />

Slide 15-45


• GRETL shows by default this Breusch and Pagan<br />

Lagrangian multiplier test for RE with the null <strong>of</strong> no<br />

variation about a mean (effects are fixed) in the<br />

individual effects.<br />

• This is xttest0 in Stata…<br />

• If H0 is not rejected you can use pooled OLS if the<br />

effects are common and the FE if they differ by<br />

group<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition


GRETL shows by default this Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for RE<br />

with the null <strong>of</strong> no variation about a mean (effects are fixed) in the individual<br />

effects.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition


• GRETL also shows the Hausman test <strong>of</strong> the null<br />

hypothesis that the random effects are indeed<br />

random.<br />

• If they are random, then they should not be correlated<br />

with any <strong>of</strong> your other regressors.<br />

• If they are correlated with other regressors, then you<br />

should use the FE estimator to obtain consistent<br />

parameter estimates <strong>of</strong> your slopes<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition


y =β x +β x +β x + v<br />

* * * * *<br />

it 1 1it 2 2it 3 3it it<br />

(15.29)<br />

y = y −α y , x = 1 −α , x = x −α x , x = x −αx<br />

* * * *<br />

it it i 1it 2it 2it 2i 3it 3it 3i<br />

(15.30)<br />

α= −<br />

σ<br />

e<br />

1<br />

2 2<br />

Tσ u<br />

+σe<br />

(15.31)<br />

Is the transformation parameter<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-49


σˆ e<br />

.1951<br />

α= ˆ 1− = 1 − = .7437<br />

Tσ ˆ +σˆ<br />

5 .1083 + .0381<br />

2 2<br />

u e<br />

Is the transformation parameter<br />

( )<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-50


• There are different ways to calculate FE (some<br />

packages will calculate an intercept, some<br />

won’t)<br />

• There are different ways to calculate sigma-sq<br />

(STATA in textbook and GRETL will give you<br />

slightly different results!)<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition


• Pooled OLS vs different intercepts: test (use a Chow<br />

type, after FE or run RE and test if the variance <strong>of</strong><br />

the intercept component <strong>of</strong> the error is zero (Breusch-<br />

Pagan test (xttest0 in STATA))<br />

• You cannot pool onto OLS? Then…<br />

• Choose between FE vs RE: (Hausman test)<br />

• GRETL summary tests: panel Inv const V K --pooled<br />

• Different slopes too perhaps? => use SURE or RCM<br />

and test for equality <strong>of</strong> slopes across units


• Note that there is within variation versus<br />

between variation<br />

• The OLS is an unweighted average <strong>of</strong> the<br />

between estimator and the within estimator<br />

• The RE is a weighted average <strong>of</strong> the between<br />

estimator and the within estimator<br />

• The FE is also a weighted average <strong>of</strong> the<br />

between estimator and the within estimator<br />

with zero as the weight for the between part


• The RE is a weighted average <strong>of</strong> the between<br />

estimator and the within estimator<br />

• The FE is also a weighted average <strong>of</strong> the<br />

between estimator and the within estimator<br />

with zero as the weight for the between part<br />

• So now you see where the extra efficiency <strong>of</strong><br />

RE comes from!...


• The RE uses information from both the crosssectional<br />

variation in the panel and the time<br />

series variation, so it mixes LR and SR effects<br />

• The FE uses only information from the time<br />

series variation, so it estimates SR* effects


• With a panel, we can learn about dynamic<br />

effects from a short panel, while we need a<br />

long time series on a single cross-sectional<br />

unit, to learn about dynamics from a time<br />

series data set


If the random error<br />

v = u + e<br />

it i it<br />

is correlated with any <strong>of</strong> the right-hand side<br />

explanatory variables in a random effects model then the least squares and<br />

GLS estimators <strong>of</strong> the parameters are biased and inconsistent.<br />

This bias creeps in through the between variation, <strong>of</strong> course, so the FE model<br />

will avoid it<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-57


yit =β<br />

1+β 2x2it +β<br />

3x3 it<br />

+ ( ui + eit<br />

)<br />

(15.32)<br />

T T T T T<br />

1 1 1 1 1<br />

y = y =β +β x +β x + u + e<br />

∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑<br />

i it 1 2 2it 3 3it i it<br />

T t= 1 T t= 1 T t= 1 T t= 1 T t=<br />

1<br />

(15.33)<br />

=β +β x +β x + u + e<br />

1 2 2i 3 3i i i<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-58


y =β +β x +β x + u + e<br />

it 1 2 2it 3 3it i it<br />

− ( y =β +β x +β x + u + e)<br />

i 1 2 2i 3 3i i i<br />

(15.34)<br />

y − y =β ( x − x ) +β ( x − x ) + ( e −e)<br />

it i 2 2it 2i 3 3it 3i it i<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-59


t<br />

bFE, k<br />

−bRE, k<br />

bFE, k<br />

−bRE,<br />

k<br />

= =<br />

<br />

2 2<br />

⎡var<br />

( b<br />

, ) var ( , ) se( FE, k ) se<br />

FE k<br />

− b ⎤ ⎡ b −<br />

RE k<br />

( bRE,<br />

k )<br />

⎤<br />

⎢⎣<br />

⎥⎦<br />

⎢⎣ ⎥⎦<br />

12 12<br />

(15.35)<br />

We expect to find<br />

<br />

var − var b > 0.<br />

( b )<br />

( )<br />

FE, k<br />

RE,<br />

k<br />

( b − b ) = ( b ) + ( b ) − ( b b )<br />

var var var 2cov ,<br />

FE, k RE, k FE, k RE, k FE, k RE,<br />

k<br />

( b ) var ( b )<br />

= var −<br />

FE, k<br />

RE,<br />

k<br />

because Hausman proved that<br />

( b b ) = ( b )<br />

cov , var .<br />

FE, k RE, k RE,<br />

k<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-60


The test statistic to the coefficient <strong>of</strong> SOUTH is:<br />

t<br />

b<br />

− b<br />

−.0163 −(.0818)<br />

FE, k RE,<br />

k<br />

= = =<br />

2 2<br />

12<br />

2 2<br />

12<br />

⎡se<br />

⎤ ⎡ ⎤<br />

⎢ FE, k<br />

RE,<br />

k<br />

⎣<br />

⎥⎦<br />

⎣<br />

⎦<br />

( b ) − se( b ) (.0361) − (.0224)<br />

2.3137<br />

Using the standard 5% large sample critical value <strong>of</strong> 1.96, we reject<br />

the hypothesis that the estimators yield identical results. Our<br />

conclusion is that the random effects estimator is inconsistent, and we<br />

should use the fixed effects estimator, or we should attempt to<br />

improve the model specification.<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-61


If the random error<br />

v = u + e<br />

it i it<br />

is correlated with any <strong>of</strong> the righthand<br />

side explanatory variables in a random effects model then the<br />

least squares and GLS estimators <strong>of</strong> the parameters are biased and<br />

inconsistent.<br />

Then we would have to use the FE model<br />

But with FE we lose the static variables?<br />

Solutions? HT, AM, BMS, instrumental variables models could help<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-62


Further issues<br />

We can generalise the random effects idea and allow for different<br />

slopes too: Random Coefficients Model<br />

Again, the now it is the slope parameters that differ, but as in RE<br />

model, they are drawn from a common distribution<br />

The RCM in a way is to the RE model what the SURE model is to the<br />

FE model<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-63


Further issues<br />

Unit root tests and Cointegration in panels<br />

Dynamics in panels<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-64


Further issues<br />

• Of course it is not necessary that one <strong>of</strong> the dimensions <strong>of</strong> the panel is time<br />

as such Example: i are students and t is for each quiz they take<br />

• Of course we could have a one-way effect model on the time dimension<br />

instead<br />

• Or a two-way model<br />

• Or a three way model! But things get a bit more complicated there…<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-65


Further issues<br />

• Another way to have more fun with panel data is to consider<br />

dependent variables that are not continuous<br />

• Logit, probit, count data can be considered<br />

• STATA has commands for these<br />

• Based on maximum likelihood and other estimation techniques we<br />

have not yet considered<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-66


Further issues<br />

• You can understand the use <strong>of</strong> the FE model as a solution to omitted<br />

variable bias<br />

• If the unmeasured variables left in the error model are not correlated<br />

with the ones in the model, we would not have a bias in OLS, so we<br />

can safely use RE<br />

• If the unmeasured variables left in the error model are correlated with<br />

the ones in the model, we would have a bias in OLS, so we cannot<br />

use RE, we should not leave them out and we should use FE, which<br />

bundles them together in each cross-sectional dummy<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-67


Further issues<br />

• Another criterion to choose between FE and RE<br />

• If the panel include all the relevant cross-sectional units, use FE, if<br />

only a random sample from a population, RE is more appropriate (as<br />

long as it is valid)<br />

•<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-68


Readings<br />

Wooldridge’s book on panel data<br />

Baltagi’s book on panel data<br />

Greene’s coverage is also good<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-69


• Balanced panel<br />

• Breusch-Pagan test<br />

• Cluster corrected standard errors<br />

• Contemporaneous correlation<br />

• Endogeneity<br />

• Error components model<br />

• Fixed effects estimator<br />

• Fixed effects model<br />

• Hausman test<br />

• Heterogeneity<br />

• Least squares dummy variable<br />

model<br />

• LM test<br />

• <strong>Panel</strong> corrected standard errors<br />

• Pooled panel data regression<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

• Pooled regression<br />

• Random effects estimator<br />

• Random effects model<br />

• Seemingly unrelated regressions<br />

• Unbalanced panel<br />

Slide 15-70


Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition<br />

Slide 15-71


yit =β<br />

1+β 2x2it +β<br />

3x3 it<br />

+ ( ui + eit<br />

)<br />

(15A.1)<br />

y − y =β ( x − x ) +β ( x − x ) + ( e −e)<br />

it i 2 2it 2i 3 3it 3i it i<br />

(15A.2)<br />

σ ˆ =<br />

2<br />

e<br />

SSEDV<br />

NT −N −K<br />

slopes<br />

(15A.3)<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition Slide 15-72


yi =β<br />

1+β 2x2i +β<br />

3x3i + ui + ei<br />

i= 1, ,<br />

N<br />

(15A.4)<br />

⎛ ⎞<br />

var ( u + e ) = var ( u ) + var ( e ) = var ( u ) + var ⎜ e T⎟<br />

⎠<br />

T<br />

2<br />

2 1 ⎛ ⎞ 2 Tσ<br />

2 var<br />

e<br />

=σ<br />

u<br />

+ ⎜∑eit<br />

⎟=σ u<br />

+<br />

2<br />

T t=<br />

1 T<br />

i i<br />

T<br />

i i i ∑<br />

⎝ t=<br />

1<br />

it<br />

2 σ<br />

=σ<br />

u<br />

+<br />

T<br />

2<br />

e<br />

⎝<br />

⎠<br />

(15A.5)<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition Slide 15-73


2<br />

2 σe SSEBE<br />

u<br />

T N − KBE<br />

σ + =<br />

(15A.6)<br />

2 2<br />

2 2 σ ˆ<br />

e<br />

σe SSEBE SSEDV<br />

σ ˆ<br />

u<br />

=σ<br />

u<br />

+ − = −<br />

T T N − K T NT −N −K<br />

BE<br />

( )<br />

slopes<br />

(15A.7)<br />

Principles <strong>of</strong> Econometrics, 3rd Edition Slide 15-74

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