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Alberta Grizzly Bear Recovery Plan 2008-2013 - Alberta Sustainable ...

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that reference to known mortality rates throughout this document is likely an underestimate of<br />

actual mortality. Previous research (Blanchard and Knight 1995) has shown that relocated<br />

grizzly bears have an increased rate of mortality of approximately 30%. Figure 2 illustrates the<br />

breakdown of types of human-caused mortality based on known mortalities (A), and including<br />

estimates of assumed mortalities (B) based on McLellan et al. (1999) and including a 30%<br />

mortality rate of relocated bears and 15% rate mortality from wounding (estimate based on<br />

review of big game wounding losses; Straley 1968, Boyce 1989).<br />

A. Known mortality B. Known and assumed mortality<br />

Aboriginal<br />

4%<br />

Problem<br />

Wildlife<br />

6%<br />

Vehicle/Train<br />

4%<br />

Other<br />

7%<br />

Natural<br />

1%<br />

Regulated<br />

Harvest *<br />

50%<br />

Aboriginal<br />

6%<br />

Problem<br />

Wildlife<br />

4%<br />

Vehicle/Train<br />

3%<br />

Other<br />

5%<br />

Natural<br />

1%<br />

Regulated<br />

Harvest*<br />

39%<br />

Self-defense<br />

12%<br />

Self-defense<br />

17%<br />

Illegal<br />

16%<br />

Illegal<br />

25%<br />

Figure 2. Types of mortality of grizzly bears in <strong>Alberta</strong>, 1990-2007, as A) a percentage of total known<br />

mortality, 1990 to 2003, and B) a percentage of total known and assumed mortality.<br />

*Regulated harvest suspended in 2006.<br />

There is variability around grizzly bear mortality rates (i.e., a percentage of the population) that<br />

will allow long-term survival of grizzly bear populations. Recent calculations (McLoughlin<br />

2003) suggest that previous estimates of sustainable mortality rates were too high to allow a<br />

sustainable population (e.g., Miller 1990). McLoughlin (2003) used a population viability<br />

analysis to estimate that, in optimal and moderate habitat respectively, 4.9% and 2.8% are<br />

acceptable levels of total human-caused mortality. After examining the risks of population<br />

decline in 10 grizzly bear populations in British Columbia, McLoughlin (2003) cautioned that<br />

unless other sources of mortality could be reduced, a harvest reduction was advisable, especially<br />

in the absence of reliable population estimates.<br />

Theoretically, to accommodate the observed and estimated mortality rates in <strong>Alberta</strong>, and ensure<br />

that these rates are below 4.9%, the population would have to be above 1000 (this estimate was<br />

based on average mortality from the last five years and calculating the population size at which<br />

the mortality equalled 4.9% of the population). This also assumes no immigration of bears from<br />

neighbouring jurisdictions. Assuming 700 independent bears, the mortality rate would be in<br />

excess of 6.7%. If the population were less than 700 bears, the mortality rate would be higher.<br />

8

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