Domestic This - Horace Mann School

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International How Iran Won by daniel elkind The problem with sanctions, power, and the international By removing Saddam Hussein as the sole counterbalance to the power of Iran in the Middle East, President Bush did more to elevate Iran as a threat to world peace than this member of the “axis of evil” could ever have done on its own. Today Iran poses a global threat. It has amassed a military numbering 2.8 million soldiers (eighth on the world stage), is likely developing nuclear weapons, possesses ballistic missile capabilities, and is committed to terrorist organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran’s leaders are bent on radical Islamist ideals. Its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has called for the destruction of Israel, has branded the Holocaust a hoax, and has asserted that 9/11 was an inside job. There can be no doubt that Iran has emerged as the leading power in the Middle East and is likely to spread its radical ideals to neighboring countries like Iraq and Afghanistan; nor that Iran will intimidate moderate nations like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Egypt. How did Iran achieve dominance? Just a decade ago, the Shiite-controlled Iran remained locked in a stalemate with Iraq, a country led by a Sunni minority, which had endured since the bitter eight year war that concluded in 1988. The United States placed Iran in the catbird seat. The removal of Saddam Hussein, whose Sunni government had stymied Iran for decades, precipitated Iran’s assertion of unchecked power throughout the Middle East. How did the Bush Administration disregard that the removal of one dictator would allow for another to gain broad influence? There can be no doubt that Iran’s influence is mounting. In Iraq, Iran threatens to fill the power vacuum left by Hussein, for the Iraqi Shiite majority identifies closely with its religious counterparts in Iran: a nation that is 95% Shiite and led by radical Shiite clerics. Even the United States recognized Iran’s influence when, at the height of the Iraqi insurgency in 2006, American representatives met with Iranian representatives, requesting that Iran use its influence over Iraqi Shiites to help quell the ongoing insurrection. The specter of America looking to Iran for aid A History of Violence 1979 Iranian Revolution; Iran transitions from a monarchy under Shah Reza Pahlavi to an Islamic Republic under Supreme Leader Ayatolla Khomeini scrapetv 2003 Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein removed from power in Iraq was alone a shocking condemnation of the wisdom of President Bush’s Iraq policies. In Afghanistan, President Karzai has issued repeated public overtures of friendship to Iran, even as America targets the extremist Taliban and Al Qaida operatives in his own country whose actions Iran condones. It was recently disclosed that Iranian officials regularly present Afghan officials with cash in an effort to secure influence over Afghan leadership. Turkey, an Islamic NATO member, is transitioning from being a secular state to a more orthodox one. Turkey’s leaders recently joined Brazil in proposing a plan to outsource Iranian nuclear fuel in order to circumvent further economic sanctions against Iran. In Lebanon and Palestine, Iran has used its huge oil revenues to finance Hezbollah and Hamas. There is no doubt that nuclear weapons in the hands of Iranian leaders would disrupt the global balance of power and threaten world peace. If the current situation in the Middle East is precarious, then such a frightening scenario would dailynews 1980-1988 Iraq invades Iran, resulting in the eight-year Iran- Iraq War, with a death toll estimated between 500,000 and 1 million caeroia 2005 Mahmoud Ahamdinejad elected President of Iran 14 The Horace Mann Review | Vol. XX
International the Iraq War the threat of Iranian nuclear community’s fatal blunder be devastating to any chance of reversing the tide of mounting Iranian influence that is leading much of the Middle East in a radical direction. Iran would become an imposing superpower with nuclear weapons in its hands. The current policy towards Iran is to attempt to isolate the country with severe economic sanctions. The United States and Europe have led economic sanctions which forbid countries and companies from selling nearly all goods and services to Iran and from dealing with Iranian businesses, banks, or other financial institutions. Russia, China, and a handful of left-leaning nations have refused to honor these sanctions, with Russia being responsible for selling Iran nuclear power technology used to operate its enrichment activities. Will sanctions work? Iran has indicated some willingness to reopen discussions about its nuclear program, but has done so before, primarily to delay further action by the West, and there is little indication that sanctions will compel Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. The general record of sanctions, as it happens, is not promising. Sanctions have proven ineffective when they are not enforced by all countries. Opposing the iron-fisted control of the radical clerics, President Ahmadinejad, and the Revolutionary Guard forces that keep them in power is a moderate and widely popular democratic movement spearheaded by leaders like Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The 2009 Iranian presidential elections, which were most certainly fixed, ignited widespread, violent demonstrations throughout the main urban centers fueled by a hatred of the radical government and longing for true democracy. It was widely believed that Iran was on the verge of a second civil war, one that would remove the radical clerics and Ahmadinejad from power. The Revolutionary Guard, however, crushed the rebellion and swiftly imprisoned, tortured, and, in many cases, executed its moderate leaders. Notwithstanding the military repression of democratic movements in Iran, there is reason to believe that Iran will follow a historically common pattern. The democratic forces might someday change the direction of the country. Russia, China, and Eastern European countries are all states which have transitioned towards market-based economies and more democratic political systems, albeit ones that do not match the democratic principles of Western nations. Yet, given the force of Iran’s army and the repression of liberties and democratic ideas by the Revolutionary Guard and the clerics, any such ideological evolution might take decades or even centuries to unfold. Unfortunately, when it comes to Iran, we have immediate problems to resolve. Iran has already tested advanced missiles, is capable of delivering weapons across borders, and appears to be developing nuclear armaments. With the prospect of nuclear weapons in the hands of a radical Iran looming in the foreseeable future, it is incontestable that the world must consider the employment of military force to halt such a development. Allowing the radical Iranian regime to stockpile nuclear weapons is not a viable option. HMR Iran has refused to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, an international body monitoring nuclear power, since 2008 smh 2010 United Nations Resolution 1929 harshens economic and diplomatic sanctions on Iran globalresearcher 2009 Presidential elections in Iran, which were likely manipulated, cause controversy zimbabwemission The Horace Mann Review | Issue 4 15
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