Outlook for the World Coffee Market - International Coffee Organization

Outlook for the
World Coffee Market
International Coffee Council
24 –28 September
London, England
International Coffee Organization
Robério Oliveira Silva
Executive Director
ICO composite indicator prices
Monthly averages: Jan‐2000 to Aug‐2012
(In current terms)
250
200
US cents/lb
150
100
50
0
ICO Composite Indicator
International Coffee Organization
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ICO composite indicator prices
Monthly averages: Jan‐2000 to Aug‐2012
(In current and constant terms)
250
200
US cents/lb
150
100
50
0
ICO Composite
ICO Composite [Deflated]
International Coffee Organization
ICO group indicator prices
Monthly averages: Jan‐2000 to Aug‐2012
(In current terms)
350
300
250
US cents/lb
200
150
100
50
0
Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas
International Coffee Organization
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Group price dynamics
(Jan‐2009 = 100)
300
250
US cents/lb
200
150
100
50
Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas
International Coffee Organization
Arbitrage: New York* ‐ London*
Monthly averages: Jan‐2000 to Aug‐2012
(In current terms)
180
160
140
US cents/lb
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
*Average price for the 2 nd and 3 rd positions
International Coffee Organization
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World production
Crop years 2000/01 to 2011/12*
160
140
120
113.0
107.7
123.2
106.3
116.3
111.3
128.4
116.8
128.4
122.7
134.2
132.7
Million bags
100
80
60
40
20
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12*
*Estimated
International Coffee Organization
Production: 10 leading producers
(In thousand bags)
2010/11 2011/12* % change
Brazil 48 095 43 484 -9.6%
Vietnam 19 467 21 000 7.9%
Indonesia 9 129 8 620 -5.6%
Colombia 8 523 7 800 -8.5%
Ethiopia 7 500 6 500 -13.3%
Peru 4 069 5 492 35.0%
India 5 033 5 233 4.0%
Honduras 4 326 4 500 4.0%
Mexico 4 850 4 300 -11.3%
Guatemala 3 950 3 750 -5.1%
*Estimated
International Coffee Organization
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Total exports to all destinations
October to July 2000/01 ‐ 2011/12
100
90
80
70
76.0
71.7
74.9 75.2 76.6
71.8
82.8
83.0
80.3
78.1
89.1 90.4
Million bags
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
International Coffee Organization
World exports of Robustas
(% share)
40%
35%
30%
% share
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Robusta
International Coffee Organization
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Exports by group and type of coffee
October to July 2010/11 and 2011/12
(In thousand bags)
2010/11 2011/12 % change
TOTAL 89 052 90 357 1.5%
Colombian Milds 8 180 7 081 ‐13.4%
Other Milds 21 633 22 664 4.8%
Brazilian Naturals 27 592 25 139 ‐8.9%
Robustas 31 647 35 473 12.1%
Arabicas 57 405 54 884 ‐4.4%
Robustas 31 647 35 473 12.1%
International Coffee Organization
Stocks in exporting and importing countries
1990 to 2011
60
50
Million bags
40
30
20
10
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exporting countries
Importing countries
International Coffee Organization
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World coffee consumption
2001 – 2011
(In thousand bags)
2001 2011 % change
Absolute
change
Average annual
growth rate
WORLD TOTAL 109 581 137 896 25.8% 28 315 2.3%
Exporting countries 27 799 42 412 52.6% 14 613 4.3%
Traditional markets 64 300 70 841 10.2% 6 540 1.0%
Emerging markets 17 482 24 644 41.0% 7 162 3.5%
International Coffee Organization
World consumption in 2011
25
20
22.0
19.6
Million bags
15
10
9.5
5
7.0
6.0 5.7
3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9
24 2.4 22 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6
0
International Coffee Organization
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World consumption: Growth rates in traditional markets
(In thousand bags)
2001 2011 Average annual
growth rate
USA 19 554 22 043 1.4%
Germany 9 059 9 460 0.4%
Japan 6 936 7 015 0.1%
France 5 253 5 960 1.3%
Italy 5 243 5 689 0.8%
Canada 2 535 3 574 3.5%
Spain 2 795 3 149 1.1%
United Kingdom 2 215 2 926 2.6%
Sweden 1 251 1 125 ‐1.1%
Austria 1 013 1 117 1.0%
International Coffee Organization
World consumption: Growth rates in exporting countries
(In thousand bags)
2001 2011 Average annual
growth rate
Brazil 13 493 19 573 3.8%
Ethiopia 2 041 3 383 5.2%
Indonesia 1 919 3 333 5.7%
Mexico 1 354 2 354 5.7%
Philippines 821 2 150 10.1%
India 1 017 1 763 5.7%
Venezuela 1 197 1 650 3.3%
Vietnam 416 1 583 14.3%
International Coffee Organization
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World consumption: Growth rates in emerging markets
(In thousand bags)
2001 2011 Average annual
growth rate
Russia 2 983 3 695 2.2%
Poland 2 222 2 042 ‐0.8%
Korea, Rep. of 1 258 1 801 3.6%
Algeria 1 454 1 789 2.1%
Australia 765 1 407 6.3%
Ukraine 228 1 324 19.2%
Others 8 570 12 586 3.9%
International Coffee Organization
Retail prices: % change in Roast & Ground coffee
(In national currencies)
2010 2011 2012*
Austria 0.9% 18.7% 8.4%
Belgium 3.3% 19.3% 4.9%
Denmark 8.0% 21.6% 5.9%
Finland 10.1% 38.6% ‐0.3%
France 0.4% 8.9% 3.2%
Germany 5.2% 2.3% 3.6%
Italy 0.4% 10.7% 4.7%
Japan ‐1.3% 4.5% 3.4%
Norway 7.7% 19.7% 1.3%
Poland 1.3% 12.1% 12.4%
Portugal ‐1.7% 3.5% 13.5%
Spain ‐1.2% 7.6% 8.5%
Sweden 6.1% 26.4% 1.2%
United Kingdom 2.3% 16.6% 5.0%
USA 6.5% 32.9% 6.9%
* Partial average
International Coffee Organization
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Effect of retail prices on consumption
(In thousand bags)
2010 2011 % change
Austria 903 1 117 23.8%
Belgium 871 934 7.3%
Denmark 847 790 ‐6.7%
Finland 1 080 1 093 1.2%
France 5 713 5 960 4.3%
Germany 9 292 9 460 1.8%
Italy 5 781 5 689 ‐1.6%
Japan 7 192 7 015 ‐2.5%
Norway 746 785 5.3%
Poland 2 156 2 042 ‐5.3%
Portugal 750 834 11.1%
Spain 3 232 3 149 ‐2.6%
Sweden 1 221 1 125 ‐7.9%
United Kingdom 3 134 2 926 ‐6.7%
USA 21 783 22 043 1.2%
International Coffee Organization
World consumption outlook
(1970 to 2020)
200
180
160
172.2
164.8
157.7
Million bags
140
120
100
80
1970‐1979
1.1%
1980‐1989
1.3%
1990‐1999
1.6%
2000‐2011
2.5%
60
40
20
0
Actual Low ‐ 1.5% Medium ‐ 2.0% High ‐ 2.5%
International Coffee Organization
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Thank you
www.ico.org
Robério Oliveira Silva
Executive Director
International Coffee Organization
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