Book 1.indb - The Jamestown Foundation

The Tulip Revolution: Kyrgyzstan OneYear After
temper, yet strong respect for the rule of law. Southern residents, including the Uzbek
population in Osh Oblast, have great hopes for their leader. But there is one more
southern candidate, Adakhan Modumarov, who was active in mobilizing the crowds
that ousted Akayev’s government. Modumarov
refused a deputy prime minister posi-
tion in the interim government and declared his intention to compete for presidency.
Nurbyek
Turdukulov, a Kyrgyz businessman, has also registered
to run for the presidency and has Akayev’s support. Turdukulov
is CEO
of Bitel GSM, which controls mobile telephone service in Kyrgyzstan.
Bitel has over 200,000 subscribers and over 200 employees, a high num-
ber by local standards. Although it is unlikely that Turdukulov
will win the
presidency, he is laying the groundwork for a future career as a politician.
The new government will have to face the same problems that led to the
Akayev regime’s ouster: rampant corruption, widespread poverty and unbalanced
political representation between the northern and southern halves of Kyrgyzstan. In
the long run, Bakiyev, or any other elected president, may find it difficult to lessen
the economic cleavage between the more prosperous north and the poorer south.
The economic problems are complicated by general underdevelopment, scarce recourses,
and overpopulation in the Ferghana Valley. If the government cannot increase
southern living standards in the near future, mass tensions might arise again.
Unlike in Ukraine, where the Leonid Kuchma regime lost much of its support
overnight when evidence of official corruption was revealed to the public, there is no
substantive evidence of Akayev
family involvement in Kyrgyzstan’s largest businesses
or embezzlement. However, Akayev’s personal diaries have recently been discovered,
along with records about positions for sale at government agencies, bribe rates, and
bought parliamentary candidates; these papers might shed light on the real state of
affairs. However, it is already evident that some large businesses, such as Bitel GSM,
are ready to be sold to foreign buyers without the consent of the new government.
There are dual-power situations at some state institutions, where old leaders
are refusing to yield their positions to newly appointed officials. 4 For now, the interim
government, declared presidential candidates and post-revolution policies are under
close scrutiny by the Kyrgyz media. The former opposition’s online editions have recovered
from massive hacker attacks and state-funded television and newspapers are
loosely regulated.
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