Book 1.indb - The Jamestown Foundation

The Tulip Revolution: Kyrgyzstan One Year After
protesters seized the government headquarters in Bishkek. In addition to symbolizing
better international relations, the Russian and U.S. bases have boosted trade
in Bishkek and its environs. Hundreds of local residents are employed at the bases.
Many analysts have argued that instead of welcoming more foreign bases,
Kyrgyzstan should develop better intelligence-sharing mechanisms with neighboring
states and increase the level of professionalism among its border guards to
prevent insurgents from entering Kyrgyz territory. Accordingly, local military personnel
must be trained for small-scale counter-unsurgency activities in mountain
ranges as opposed to large-scale military operations involving heavy armament.
Kyrgyzstan is unlikely to see any more border conflicts instigated by
small armies, similar to those in Batken in 1999-2000. Military analyst Aziz
Soltobayev and others argue that the series of suicide bombers in Uzbekistan last
year showed that individual terrorist attacks are more likely to take place across
the region. 10 There are reports that religious leaflets are being distributed throughout
Bishkek, and already five Kyrgyz citizens have been arrested for promoting
the Islamic group Hizb-ut-Tahrir. 11 The number of incidents between Uzbek
citizens and Kyrgyz border guards has recently increased at border checkpoints.
After thousands of Uzbek refugees fled to Kyrgyz territory following
the May 13 crackdown in Andijan, the Kyrgyz parliament instructed
the government to enhance border security, especially at the southern frontier.
12 On May 23 Bakiyev
signed a decree to transform the Kyrgyz border
guards into border troops. 13 This, according to the acting president, will allow
for better protection of national borders. The government likely will
launch a more extensive reform of the border regime in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the situation inside Kyrgyzstan appears to be stabilizing after the
Bakiyev-Kulov agreement to form a political union rather than compete as rivals in
the presidential election. In his speech on May 21, Bakiyev
said that the new gov-
ernment would need two or three years to improve the economic well-being of the
poorest strata of society. Bakiyev and Kulov
also mentioned that they had agreed to
ban their family members—wives, children, brothers, and sisters—from leading any
business activities inside Kyrgyzstan. 14 This move should help prevent the corruption
and nepotism that contributed to the downfall of the Akayev
regime.
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