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The Tulip Revolution: Kyrgyzstan One Year After 1 Bishkek Resisting Tashkent’s Pressure to Return Andijan Refugees 1 Kyrgyzstan, UN Disagree over Remaining Andijan Refugees 1 Bakiyev’s Cabinet Criticized for Corrupt Cadre Politics C A D R E P O L I T I C S A N D K Y R G Y Z - U Z B E K R E L A T I O N S S E P T E M B E R 2 0 0 5 — O C T O B E R 2 0 0 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 9 1 As Winter Approaches, Kyrgyzstan Faces Tough Choices in Its Energy Sector 1 Kulov Optimistic on Efforts to Delineate Division of Powers between President and Prime Minister 1 Karimov Accuses Kyrgyzstan of Assisting Terrorists 1 Erkinbayev’s Assassination Provokes Controversy in Kyrgyzstan 1 Kyrgyz Parliament Rejects Female Cabinet Nominees, Including Otunbayeva 1 Kyrgyz, Uzbek Leaders Choose Cold Peace over Open Confrontation 1 Will Re-Privatization of Kyrgyz Media Quiet Opposition Voices? T H E S T A T E - C R I M E N E X U S N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 5 1 Assassination of Kyrgyz Lawmaker Reveals Links between Politics and Crime 1 Bakiyev-Kulov Political Union Endangered by Criminals 1 As Bakiyev Looses Support, Kulov Gains Popularity 1 NGOs Want Kyrgyz to Be the Sole State Language of Kyrgyzstan 1 Clans, Crime and Power in Kyrgyzstan G R O W I N G D I S S A T I S F A C T I O N D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 5 — F E B R U A R Y 2 0 0 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 7 1 Otunbayeva Loses Last Chance to Remain in Kyrgyz Politics 1 Fearing Color Revolutions are Contagious, Kazakhstan Shuts Border with Kyrgyzstan 1 High-Ranking Kyrgyz Official Proposes New National Ideology 1 Kyrgyz Journalists Claim Government Suppresses Free Speech 1 Kyrgyz Government Unable to Regulate Crossings along Border with Uzbekistan 1 With Constitutional Reform Stalled, Bakiyev Opts for Referendum 1 Is Bakiyev Losing Legitimacy? 1 Bakiyev Wins Battle against Parliament Leader, but Loses Public Support in the Process 1 Bayikev Faces Strong, Maturing Opposition in Kyrgyzstan 1 Kyrgyzstan Marks First Anniversary of Tulip Revolution T H E T U L I P R E V O L U T I O N : A C H R O N O L O G Y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 1 E N D N O T E S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 3 3 I N D E X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 1 3 9 viii
F O R E W O R D Few analysts are as well qualified to write about Kyrgyzstan’s Tulip Revolution as Erica Marat. A Kyrgyz citizen and regular contributor to The Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor, Dr. Marat spend the last fourteen months examining the domestic, regional and international dynamics shaping radical change in this remote yet strategically critical Central Asian republic. The Tulip Revolution: Kyrgyzstan One Year After represents a comprehensive compilation of her reporting for Eurasia Daily Monitor during that period. The timing of this report is particularly notable. Published on the first anniversary of the fall of President Askar Akayev’s regime, The Tulip Revolution: Kyrgyzstan One Year After provides an invaluable reference for policy makers the American public. From street protests to political assassinations, Dr. Marat integrates indigenous media, local sources and personal observations to furnish timely, fact-based analysis of seminal developments. Her contributions to our understanding of Kyrgyzstan’s color revolution are unique and unmatched. This occasional report reflects The Jamestown Foundation’s continuing efforts to provide in-depth coverage of emerging economic, political and strategic trends throughout the post-Soviet space. Those trends influence U.S. interests in the region and around the world. As Russia and China vie for influence in Central Asia, and as the U.S. military withdraws from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan’s importance as an ally in the Global War on Terrorism grows with each passing day. Kyrgyzstan now stands at a critical geopolitical crossroads. With the U.S.- Uzbekistan relationship in crisis and Washington committed to building deeper ties with Bishkek, there now is a profound need to understand the dynamics that sparked the Tulip Revolution and continue to shape this fledgling democracy. Jamestown is proud to contribute to those crucial endeavors. Glen E. Howard President, The Jamestown Foundation 1
Page 1: T h e T u l i p R e v o l u t i o n
Page 4 and 5: The Tulip Revolution: Kyrgyzstan On
Page 7: C O N T E N T S F O R E W O R D . .
Page 11 and 12: Introduction: Lessons from The Tuli
Page 13 and 14: Introduction: Lessons from The Tuli
Page 15 and 16: The Revolution T H E R E V O L U T
Page 17 and 18: The Revolution MASS PROTESTS, LITTL
Page 19 and 20: The Revolution KYRGYZ CRISIS REACHE
Page 21 and 22: The Revolution CROWD SEIZES GOVERNM
Page 23 and 24: The Revolution TULIPS BLOOM IN KYRG
Page 25 and 26: The Revolution free Kyrgyzstan than
Page 27 and 28: Old and New Regimes: Legitimacy, Co
Page 43 and 44: The Andijan Refugee Crisis and Kyrg
Page 59 and 60:
The Andijan Refugee Crisis and Kyrg
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The Andijan Refugee Crisis and Kyrg
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Presidential Elections P R E S I D
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Presidential Elections TENSIONS RIS
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Presidential Elections BAKIYEV WINS
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Presidential Elections KYRGYZ EXPER
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Presidential Elections BISHKEK RESI
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Presidential Elections KYRGYZSTAN,
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Presidential Elections B A K I Y E
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Cadre Politics and Kyrgyz-Uzbek Rel
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The State-Crime Nexus T H E S T A T
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The State-Crime Nexus ASSASSINATION
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The State-Crime Nexus BAKIYEV-KULOV
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The State-Crime Nexus AS BAKIYEV LO
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The State-Crime Nexus NGOS WANT KYR
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The State-Crime Nexus CLANS, CRIME
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Growing Dissatisfaction G R O W I N
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Growing Dissatisfaction OTUNBAYEVA
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Growing Dissatisfaction FEARING COL
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Growing Dissatisfaction HIGH-RANKIN
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Growing Dissatisfaction KYRGYZ JOUR
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Growing Dissatisfaction KYRGYZ GOVE
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Growing Dissatisfaction WITH CONSTI
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Growing Dissatisfaction IS BAKIYEV
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Growing Dissatisfaction BAKIYEV WIN
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Growing Dissatisfaction BAKIYEV FAC
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Growing Dissatisfaction KYRGYZSTAN
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Growing Dissatisfaction U.S. milita
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A Chronology T H E T U L I P R E V
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A Chronology The Tulip Revolution:
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A Chronology March 23, 2005 1 The K
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A Chronology illegally transferring
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A Chronology ence in Central Asia.
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A Chronology the prime minister. Oc
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Endnotes E N D N O T E S The Revolu
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Endnotes 38 Vremya, June 7, 2005. 3
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Endnotes The State-Crime Nexus Nove
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Adam Ereli, 24 AES Corporation, 72
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Moscow, 12, 13, 15, 21, 24, 29, 31,
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A B O U T T H E A U T H O R Erica M
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