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“Titanic Lessons for IT Projects” - FVP PMP Luncheons - Noblis

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“<strong>Lessons</strong> From the Past<br />

that Assist the Projects<br />

of Today to Shape the<br />

World of Tomorrow”<br />

www.lessons-from-history.com<br />

<strong>“Titanic</strong> <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> <strong>Projects”</strong><br />

<strong>IT</strong> Projects from Hell<br />

Authored by Mark Kozak-Holland, HP Services<br />

March 14th, 2007<br />

Presentation <strong>for</strong> <strong>Noblis</strong><br />

<strong>Lessons</strong>-from-History<br />

Strictly Proprietary & Confidential<br />

Copyright 2007 MultiMedia Publications


Objectives: Analyze Titanic’s construction project and voyage<br />

and provide a contrary view to popular held belief<br />

• It explains how we can take stock and use lessons learned<br />

to help understand key project issues.<br />

• It looks at key decisions made during the project that led to<br />

compromises and cutting corners in the project stages.<br />

• It questions why the ship’s captain was unable to prevent<br />

the disaster.<br />

• It makes a step by step comparison to today’s <strong>IT</strong> projects.<br />

• Please prepare questions <strong>for</strong> the end of the presentation.<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

Strictly Proprietary & Confidential<br />

Copyright 2007<br />

Page 2


As you probably know the success rate of <strong>IT</strong> projects is stubbornly<br />

low as first shown by the “Chaos” reports from Standish Group<br />

• Hypothesis:<br />

– <strong>IT</strong> projects set seeds<br />

<strong>for</strong> future operational<br />

failures - take months<br />

to come to light.<br />

– Problems in on-line<br />

operation attributed<br />

back to poor<br />

decisions made in <strong>IT</strong><br />

project.<br />

Source: “Chaos, a recipe<br />

<strong>for</strong> success,” Standish<br />

Group, 2004. Part of a<br />

series 1994, 1996, 1998,<br />

2000, 2004 - 280,000<br />

projects evaluated<br />

Check www.lessons-from-history/Project Success or Failure/<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

Strictly Proprietary & Confidential<br />

Copyright 2007<br />

Page 3


Some notable project failures during the project implementation or<br />

into operation<br />

• January 2007, Sweden's largest Bank, Nordea, the biggest heist of customer accounts on record<br />

more than $1m was stolen.<br />

• The Hershey Foods ERP system implementation failure ($112m) led to massive distribution<br />

problems and 27% market share loss.<br />

• The FoxMeyer Drug ERP system implementation failure led to collapse of entire $5 bn company.<br />

• July 2005 HSBC admitted hardware failure caused a major systems crash that hit thousands of<br />

customers <strong>for</strong> ATM, credit/debit, online services and internet, and it was the worst in its history.<br />

• June 2004, RBC fell behind processing salary deposits thousands of Canadian workers as<br />

millions of transactions were affected by a computer glitch that caused payroll delays.<br />

• June 2004, an air traffic control computer failure saw massive air disruption across the UK. All<br />

flights from UK airports were grounded after a problem at the National Air Traffic Service.<br />

• August 2004, a computer crash prevented thousands of UK pensioners collecting benefits<br />

payments on the busiest day of year after the £500m Benefits Transfer system went down.<br />

• September 2004, hundreds of flights grounded <strong>for</strong> 3 hrs, Western US airports. A computer failure<br />

stopped pilot/traffic controller contact. In 5 instances planes passed very close to each other.<br />

• October 2004, computer failure at Waikato Hospital (NZ) left thousands of health workers out of<br />

pocket and <strong>for</strong>ced the manual processing of patient records.<br />

Check www.lessons-from-history/Project Success or Failure/<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

Strictly Proprietary & Confidential<br />

Copyright 2007<br />

Page 4


Notable project failures during projects. Considering evolution of<br />

PM in last 3 decades and increasing maturity of <strong>IT</strong> why do problems<br />

still occur and some <strong>IT</strong> projects fail catastrophically?<br />

• 2006 Department of Homeland Security scuttles its $229m Emerge2 program (new<br />

financial <strong>IT</strong> system).<br />

• 2005 US Justice Department stated $170m FBI Virtual Case File project a failure, after 5<br />

yrs & $104m. In a 18-month period, FBI gave contractor 400 requirements changes.<br />

• 2005 UK Inland Revenue gave $3.45 bn of tax overpayments because of software errors.<br />

• April 2005 Australian inter-departmental warfare resulted in failure of $64m federal project.<br />

• 2005 British food retailer J Sainsbury wrote off $526m in automated supply-chain system.<br />

• IRS project on taxpayer compliance took decade to complete and cost $50 bn.<br />

• Oregon DMV conversion to new software took 8 years and public outcry killed the project.<br />

• State of Florida welfare system plagued with numerous errors & $260m in overpayments!<br />

• May 2005 major hybrid car manufacturer installed software fix on 20,000 vehicles. The<br />

automobile industry spends $2 to $3 bn per year fixing software problems.<br />

• July 2004 new welfare management system in Canada costing $200m unable to handle<br />

simple benefits rate increase. Contract never tested this in 6 weeks of acceptance tests.<br />

• 2004 Avis cancelled an ERP system after $54.5m is spent<br />

Check www.lessons-from-history/Project Success or Failure/<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

Strictly Proprietary & Confidential<br />

Copyright 2007<br />

Page 5


The costs of lost services are significant regardless of<br />

industry & relate back to decisions made in the project<br />

Outage Costs By Industry<br />

Industry Description By Minute By Hour<br />

Package shipping Like Fedex $467 $28,000<br />

Internet e-tailer (small) Like CDNow $750 $45,000<br />

Computer vendor Like Dell $1,000 $60,000<br />

Financial Institution Like Citibank (credit/debit) $1,300 $78,000<br />

Retailer sales catalog Like Sears $1,500 $90,000<br />

Internet e-tailer (large) Like Amazon $1,500 $90,000<br />

Financial institution Like Charles-Schwab (brokerage) $1,500 $90,000<br />

TV home shopping Like The Shopping Channel $1,550 $93,000<br />

Telco Like ATT $2,000 $120,000<br />

Pay-per-view Cable provider, like Rogers $2,500 $150,000<br />

Network vendor Like Cisco $2,783 $167,000<br />

Microchip manufacturer Like Intel $3,750 $225,000<br />

Airline Like Sabre $36,000 $2,160,000<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

Strictly Proprietary & Confidential<br />

Copyright 2007<br />

Page 6


As complexity has risen so has the risk. The internet brings<br />

further risks as it exasperates dependencies on on-line services<br />

• Integration of solution into a complex environment of<br />

applications and databases.<br />

• Interface to the Internet:<br />

– Puts backend operation on-line, exposes integration flaws to world.<br />

• An online mortgage can be approved in 20 minutes, from days or weeks.<br />

– Carries high expectations of 24x7 service delivery and on-line access.<br />

– Enables fickle, savvy customers to click over to competitive services.<br />

– Leave site in 4 seconds if no response<br />

– Increases speed that on-line services acquire mission critical status.<br />

– Expands B2B services to global 24x7, e.g., suppliers, resellers,<br />

partners.<br />

• Millions of lines of code<br />

• Integration with complex technologies<br />

• Massive user populations (to justify solution)<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

Strictly Proprietary & Confidential<br />

Copyright 2007<br />

Page 7


Not only do projects need to be successful but have to<br />

come in on time, e.g., like hot products<br />

• Xbox get it right - launch window has to be “bang on”<br />

• Some product lifecycles last no longer than 4-6 months and<br />

sometimes, 1 month<br />

• HP reduces laptop development cycle from 9 months to 4<br />

weeks to respond to changing technologies and product<br />

obsolescence.<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

Strictly Proprietary & Confidential<br />

Copyright 2007<br />

Page 8


Bad <strong>IT</strong> service per<strong>for</strong>mance, <strong>IT</strong> project success rates, & <strong>IT</strong> investments<br />

are not just a CIO problem but <strong>for</strong> the whole c-level c<br />

executive<br />

• Corporate benchmarking study identified serious deficiencies<br />

in senior executive management skills with <strong>IT</strong> projects. Lack<br />

of PM skills cut benefits of <strong>IT</strong> projects by 25%.<br />

• “Project governance practices today focus on making<br />

commitments, not keeping them. Executives are involved in<br />

selecting and approving projects, but rarely delivering them.”<br />

49% experienced one project failure in past 12 months.<br />

• Source: KPMG's Global <strong>IT</strong> Project Management Survey, July 2005.<br />

• The CIO and entire c-level executive need to understand:<br />

– The relationship between <strong>IT</strong> projects & on-line operations<br />

– What can go wrong in a complex on-line operation? the cost and impact?<br />

– How it can be prevented?<br />

– ROI <strong>for</strong> creating a strong online operation<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

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Copyright 2007<br />

Page 9


To better understand the relationship between on-line operations<br />

and <strong>IT</strong> projects imagine yourself back in 1912 in one of Titanic’s<br />

lifeboat being rescued by Carpathia. . You ask yourself:<br />

• How could such a disaster happen?<br />

• Why did the ship collide with ice?<br />

• Why did the ship sink it was supposed to invincible?<br />

• Why didn’t the ship slowdown through the ice field?<br />

• Was the ship carrying lookouts?<br />

• Who was in control of the ship?<br />

• Why were there so few lifeboat places?<br />

• Were there no other ships in the vicinity?<br />

• Why did it take so long <strong>for</strong> rescue?<br />

• Are these just the symptoms and not the causes?<br />

• We need to go back to 1909 and look at the project itself.<br />

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In 1909 White Star was facing stiff businesses pressures no<br />

different to corporations today. Executives responded with a new<br />

business strategy and took advantage of emerging technology<br />

• Increase in competition and new entrants.<br />

• Aging technology infrastructure, ailing and inferior business<br />

services, leading to loss of market share and customers.<br />

• Invested in a technology infrastructure with 3 new super<br />

liners to sweep Atlantic.<br />

• Pushed emerging technology to limits.<br />

• Addressed all three passage classes, priority on first-class.<br />

• Improved services by quality of<br />

crossing and customer experience.<br />

• Ships built <strong>for</strong> space and com<strong>for</strong>t<br />

(capacity) and not speed.<br />

Mauretania<br />

Olympic<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

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15% faster<br />

23% greater capacity<br />

Page 11


The strategy required major new technology investments but the<br />

business case was really solid. The business requirements<br />

specified a lavish ship with space that addressed 3 classes.<br />

• Project “profitability analysis” showed a breakeven in 2 years.<br />

• The construction project would take 6 years.<br />

• A staggering 75% of revenue driven by first-class passengers.<br />

• The price of:<br />

– 1 st class suite - $4,350, 2 nd class suite - $1,750, 3 rd class ticket - $30.<br />

• Titanic’s class segregation no different to how today’s<br />

organizations cater to customer segments.<br />

• By other ship standards third equivalent to second, and<br />

second to first.<br />

• Space allocated:<br />

– 60% <strong>for</strong> 905 first-class passengers.<br />

– 7% <strong>for</strong> 1134 third-class passengers.<br />

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Copyright 2007<br />

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In comparison <strong>for</strong> an <strong>IT</strong> project today the project team can<br />

minimize risks with the following techniques:<br />

• Ensure due diligence in examining the business<br />

problem, articulating competitive services, defining<br />

potential costs, and assessing risk.<br />

• Determine by segments customer/target audience, value<br />

propositions, create profiles and scenarios <strong>for</strong> these.<br />

• Determine existing services to be integrated into the online<br />

operation, or data dependencies.<br />

• Establish desirable service level targets to guide the<br />

architect.<br />

• Carefully assess solutions driven by new emerging<br />

technology.<br />

B EST<br />

PRACTICES<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

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And build a business case <strong>for</strong> the <strong>IT</strong> project that looks into the<br />

operational side and incorporates potential risks:<br />

• Determines the cost of unavailability, based on affected users.<br />

• Identifies and calculates hidden availability costs, especially<br />

people costs.<br />

• Considers branding, image and prestige.<br />

• Highlights the exposure and risk, (potential <strong>for</strong> “bankruptcy”).<br />

• Ensure investments required to move on-line out-weigh costs<br />

B EST<br />

PRACTICES<br />

Revenue generating on-line operation<br />

Cost saving on-line operation<br />

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You can compute your exposure to lost customers/profits by<br />

surveying your customers on the items below<br />

B EST<br />

PRACTICES<br />

# of customers<br />

who experience<br />

a problem<br />

Source: TARP Study<br />

X<br />

Sought<br />

Assistance<br />

50% X<br />

Did not seek<br />

assistance<br />

50%<br />

%<br />

Completely<br />

satisfied<br />

%<br />

Mollified<br />

%<br />

Dissatisfied<br />

% Will NOT<br />

Continue<br />

As Customer<br />

X<br />

X<br />

X<br />

X<br />

5%<br />

25%<br />

70%<br />

45%<br />

=<br />

=<br />

=<br />

=<br />

# Will NOT<br />

Continue<br />

As Customer<br />

$ Profit Lost<br />

due to lost<br />

customers<br />

X $ =..............<br />

X $ =..............<br />

X $ =..............<br />

X $ =..............<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

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Page 15


In Titanic’s s architecture stage like in any <strong>IT</strong> project Architects<br />

faced many investment options<br />

Thomas<br />

Andrews<br />

• They created a luxury liner with priority to<br />

first-class service and accommodation<br />

priority on functional requirements (What).<br />

• Harland and Wolff were the most<br />

expensive craftsmen in Europe<br />

• Lavish attention and investments to<br />

passenger com<strong>for</strong>t implied an equivalency<br />

in safety and operations features or non<br />

functional requirements (How).<br />

• The designers had investment choices in<br />

safety features, from lifeboats to the new<br />

technologies like bulkheads, a double-skin<br />

hull, and electric doors.<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

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Page 16


White Star invested in a ship-builder<br />

builder’s s model the modern<br />

equivalent of an <strong>IT</strong> pilot. They used it to analyze all exposures to<br />

the possibility of loss.<br />

• White Star used early modeling<br />

techniques to test the designs<br />

and identify vulnerabilities.<br />

• Shipbuilders relied heavily on<br />

flow analysis or “static testing” to<br />

review ship characteristics.<br />

• This was a sound strategy<br />

considering the limited testing<br />

options available, and it identified<br />

problems prior to construction.<br />

• Risks of crossing Atlantic well<br />

known with 400 years of travel.<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

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Page 17


The Architects were well aware of the risks in crossing the<br />

Atlantic. The model tested worst case failure scenarios.<br />

• Running aground<br />

60 feet<br />

Waterline<br />

Tank top<br />

7 feet Hull bottom<br />

Double skin bottom<br />

• Collisions<br />

60 feet<br />

Front-end<br />

collision<br />

Side-on<br />

collision<br />

Crumple zone<br />

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Page 18


In the architecture stage the project team can minimize risks with<br />

the following techniques<br />

B EST<br />

PRACTICES<br />

• Walkthrough the design, to catch problems early.<br />

• Walk along critical transaction paths end-to-end.<br />

• Complete “component impact analysis” and Architect to remove<br />

single failure points.<br />

• Build security zones <strong>for</strong> access.<br />

• Avoid under-investing in non-functional requirements.<br />

• Avoid one technology, lack of diversity increases susceptibility.<br />

• Avoid complexity, strive <strong>for</strong> simplicity, design <strong>for</strong> manageability,<br />

operability, scalability, per<strong>for</strong>mance, security, and ease of use.<br />

Check www.lessons-from-history/functional vs non-functional.html/<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

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Copyright 2007<br />

Page 19


Titanic’s construction stage integrated many complex technologies<br />

and selected safety features to reduce risks<br />

• Many disparate technologies integrated and<br />

controlled from a single point, the bridge.<br />

• In selecting the “availability level” and “safety<br />

features” assumptions were made about nonfunctional<br />

requirements. This led to over<br />

confidence in ship safety as construction<br />

progressed.<br />

• Investment dollars were put into expensive<br />

safety features based on new technologies in<br />

preference to lifeboats.<br />

• A perception developed that Titanic was<br />

unsinkable.<br />

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Page 20


Decisions were made that compromised individual safety<br />

features and escalated the level of risk<br />

• No Titanic construction dollars were<br />

diverted from basic safety requirements to<br />

enhance the luxurious first-class.<br />

• BUT esthetic factors like spacious public<br />

areas compromised the bulkhead wall<br />

height, built 10 feet above the waterline.<br />

• The double skin not continued (narrowed<br />

interior) was only 7 feet deep and below<br />

the waterline.<br />

• 16 lifeboats were fitted rather than the<br />

recommended 48 (triple stacked) to<br />

provide an uninterrupted view <strong>for</strong> firstclass<br />

promenade decks<br />

60 feet<br />

15 Bulkheads/16 Compartments<br />

Bulkheads<br />

end10 feet<br />

above<br />

waterline<br />

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Page 21


By the end of construction Titanic’s safety systems were severely<br />

compromised. But officers and crew believed they had the safest<br />

ship ever built and all risks had been mitigated<br />

• Safety regulations, <strong>for</strong> lifeboats, were hopelessly outdated by<br />

advances in ship-building technology.<br />

• Titanic was presented and sold at the highest safety level, but in<br />

terms of passenger safety, it was at the low to medium level.<br />

• The expensive construction ef<strong>for</strong>t was very misdirected<br />

incorporating the earlier mistakes, of the requirements and<br />

architecture stages.<br />

Titanic <strong>Lessons</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>IT</strong> Projects<br />

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Page 22


In the construction stage the project team the project team can<br />

minimize risks with the following techniques:<br />

B EST<br />

PRACTICES<br />

• Identify building blocks (components vs prefab) and<br />

solution alternatives (build versus buy).<br />

• Identify non-functional alternatives (safety features).<br />

• Build in cycles. Start small (prototypes), and scale up.<br />

• Tier the solution, scale independently, and create<br />

redundancy.<br />

• Review Government regulations that may impact.<br />

• Ensure business executives and sponsors are involved<br />

throughout the construction, through steering committees.<br />

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Page 23


The business pressures <strong>for</strong> Titanic to go live were enormous with<br />

the large investments tied up in its four-year construction.<br />

• Olympic was in dry dock <strong>for</strong> repair because<br />

of the collision with HMS Hawke, one sixth of<br />

original cost. This delayed Titanic’s maiden<br />

voyage by a month. Titanic's propeller shaft<br />

was used on the Olympic.<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

• Extensive sea trials and testing were not<br />

considered critical partly because Olympic<br />

was established in service.<br />

• Olympic was a test bed or yardstick <strong>for</strong><br />

Titanic. It is debatable how well the<br />

experiences from Olympic were transferred.<br />

• Formalized change-management/ control<br />

theory not been established.<br />

• Too much faith in Olympic’s track record.<br />

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Page 24


In the planning stage the project team can minimize risks with<br />

the following techniques:<br />

• Review existing/previous projects with the PMO <strong>for</strong><br />

commonality.<br />

• Follow a change-management process, use risk assessments.<br />

• Plan level of testing, and select right tests, and acceptance<br />

criteria.<br />

• Assign operations services ownership and control of process.<br />

• Define alternatives to launch (withdrawal), and back-out plans.<br />

• Create a test environment that mirrors the live environment.<br />

• Prepare <strong>for</strong> increase in frequency of changes with the Internet.<br />

• Deploy in test environment first, run parallel to live<br />

environment.<br />

• Ensure testing is broad not just on functions.<br />

B EST<br />

PRACTICES<br />

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Page 25


The business pressures and pressing economic needs pushed<br />

Titanic into service and resulted in limited testing completed<br />

• In reality Titanic’s testing consisted of the maiden voyage<br />

across the Atlantic fully loaded with passengers.<br />

• On leaving port, Titanic nearly collided with the steamer New York<br />

coming within four feet indicating the challenges in operating a very<br />

large ship.<br />

• Only one lifeboat drill was per<strong>for</strong>med. The crew was unprepared to<br />

handle a disaster and the launch of all lifeboats.<br />

• No time was spent in preparing<br />

the crew <strong>for</strong> the maiden voyage.<br />

The crew of 900 had 83<br />

mariners.<br />

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Page 26


Titanic’s captain and officers were well aware of “Iceberg<br />

Alley” and the associated risks.<br />

• A well known feature of the North<br />

Atlantic to experienced mariners.<br />

• Winter of 1911 unseasonably mild.<br />

• April worst month <strong>for</strong> icebergs.<br />

• Sailing path moved 10 miles south.<br />

• Fate of French liner Niagara known.<br />

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Page 27


At this point in the project it is common to implement Service Level L<br />

Agreements. Bruce Ismay went further and compromised these.<br />

• Bruce Ismay published a shipping<br />

announcement in the New York Times that<br />

Titanic would arrive a day early to published<br />

schedule. This was a new service level that<br />

proved to be fateful in pushing the ship to its<br />

operational limits.<br />

• The passenger list was a “who’s who” of<br />

public life, with 300 very famous people,<br />

collectively worth of over $500 million. This<br />

underlined public confidence in the ship.<br />

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Page 28


In the testing stage the project team can minimize risks with<br />

the following techniques:<br />

B EST<br />

PRACTICES<br />

• Undertake business and technical risk assessments.<br />

• Ensure independent test teams with incentives to test<br />

objectively.<br />

• Establish the ability to stop an implementation if testing fails.<br />

• Ensure that major testing, once under way, can be halted.<br />

• Ensure the change-management process has various<br />

strategies <strong>for</strong> rapid promotion and implementation.<br />

• Avoid change-management process that lacks political<br />

support and “teeth” to be effective.<br />

• Avoid giving developers deployment rights to live<br />

environment.<br />

• Refine your service level objectives and agreements.<br />

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The operating stage required the deployment of the ship into<br />

production and her maiden voyage<br />

• Titanic had a number of built-in feedback mechanisms that were<br />

discounted, fudged (ice bucket test), or just ignored.<br />

• Operators overloaded by commercial traffic (noise) did not pass<br />

the ice warnings (signal) along in a timely fashion.<br />

• Ice-warning in<strong>for</strong>mation eventually communicated through the<br />

hierarchy to Captain Smith wasn’t adequately acted on.<br />

• The captain very resistant to technology relied on “gut” feel and<br />

experience and undermined Marconigram in<strong>for</strong>mation.<br />

• The officers kept their binoculars<br />

and did not share them with the<br />

lookouts.<br />

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During the operating stage Bruce Ismay was determined to prove<br />

Titanic was a superior ship to Olympic and meet his new SLO,<br />

dramatically increasing the risks<br />

• The chain of command on board was<br />

usurped as Bruce Ismay overrode<br />

Captain Smith and pushed the ship<br />

and crew continuously to its limits.<br />

• The captain succumbed to the<br />

director’s pressure to sail at full<br />

speed through the danger area.<br />

• The business pressure overrode<br />

the operations services mandate.<br />

• Stringent guidelines were broken<br />

putting everything in jeopardy.<br />

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The collision was inevitable and Murdoch almost<br />

succeeded pulling off a brilliant maneuver.<br />

• All the feedback systems were compromised.<br />

• The ship reached its peak speed as three additional boilers<br />

were lit, more than at any other time in the journey,.<br />

• Cali<strong>for</strong>nian’s last radio message was ignored.<br />

• The lookouts warning came 37 seconds be<strong>for</strong>e the collision.<br />

• Officer Murdoch tried to dodge the iceberg and decelerate the<br />

ship through a “port-around” or “S turn.”<br />

Ice Shelf<br />

Iceberg<br />

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The ship grounded itself on the ice shelf in an ef<strong>for</strong>t to avoid a head<br />

on collision. Consistent testimonies of the collision describe it as<br />

innocuous.<br />

• “I heard this thump, then I could feel the boat quiver and could feel a sort<br />

of rumbling..”<br />

– Joseph Scarott Seaman<br />

• “... It was like a heavy vibration. It was not a violent shock.”<br />

– Walter Brice Able Bodied Seaman<br />

• “…I felt as though a heavy wave had struck our ship. She quivered under it<br />

somewhat.”<br />

– Major Arthur Peuchen First Class Passenger<br />

• “I was dreaming, and I woke up when I heard a slight crash. I paid no<br />

attention to it until the engines stop.”<br />

– C E Henry Stengel First Class Passenger<br />

• “We were thrown from the bench on which we were sitting. The shock was<br />

accompanied by a grinding noise….”<br />

– Edward Dorking Third Class Passenger<br />

• “It was like thunder, the roar of thunder…”<br />

– George Beauchamp Fireman<br />

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Unperturbed the bridge sends two assessment groups<br />

to survey the ship <strong>for</strong> damage.<br />

• No sharp jolt of ship slamming horizontally into immovable<br />

object.<br />

• No rebound effect from side swipe or glancing blow.<br />

• No on thrown about, breakfast cutlery in dining rooms<br />

barely rattled.<br />

• No deaths, no injuries, no broken bones. The ship quivered<br />

or rumbled <strong>for</strong> several seconds.<br />

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Two assessment groups surveyed the ship <strong>for</strong> damage. Bruce<br />

Ismay made a fateful decision to prove Titanic could save herself.<br />

• The first group quickly return with an inaccurate report of<br />

no major damage. They had descended only a few decks.<br />

• Ismay’s dilemma as there were several options available <strong>for</strong><br />

recovery.<br />

– Remain static and put out a distress call.<br />

– Restart the engines and limp back to Halifax.<br />

• Be<strong>for</strong>e second group returned with architect and carpenter<br />

the director took the decision to sail off the ice-shelf.<br />

• First wireless message sent to White Star office in New<br />

York.<br />

– “T<strong>IT</strong>ANIC PROCEEDING TO HALIFAX. PASSENGERS WILL PROBABLY LAND<br />

THERE WEDNESDAY; ALL SAFE. SM<strong>IT</strong>H”<br />

– All true at 11:53 pm.<br />

• The pumps could not keep up with the increased flooding.<br />

• The architect predicted the ship had 2 hours.<br />

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In the operating stage the project team can minimize risks<br />

with the following techniques:<br />

• Ensure the business/operations services refine<br />

SLAs, and adhere these.<br />

• Structure support <strong>for</strong> one holistic client view of<br />

the service, avoid technology silos, assign<br />

operations sole responsibility.<br />

• Build problem-management processes based<br />

on the speed of recovery, & recovery clock.<br />

• Base proactive problem-avoidance around an<br />

early warning system.<br />

• Synthesize and route timely in<strong>for</strong>mation from<br />

feedback mechanisms to decision-makers.<br />

B EST<br />

PRACTICES<br />

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And take a comprehensive approach to organization, processes,<br />

and tools, a basis <strong>for</strong> continuous availability:<br />

• Monitor strategic components critical to environment<br />

availability.<br />

• Avoid claiming a project success too soon.<br />

• Monitor broadly across the whole environment after an<br />

implementation.<br />

• Investigate environmental anomalies quickly using<br />

cause-and-effect, delays may be costly.<br />

• Identify meaningful metrics in “User outage<br />

minutes” rather than percentages of availability.<br />

• Re-evaluate the initial business case based on<br />

returns and metrics.<br />

B EST<br />

PRACTICES<br />

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The officers and crew operated in a state of disbelief unable to<br />

per<strong>for</strong>m an effective recovery. Panic ensued amongst passengers.<br />

• The disaster assessment took 20 minutes, and 65<br />

minutes be<strong>for</strong>e the captain ordered lifeboats filled.<br />

• Poor communication impeded passengers & crew<br />

from reacting, possibly deliberate to avoid panic.<br />

• The hierarchical organizational structure and<br />

physical segregation controlled in<strong>for</strong>mation flow.<br />

• Many passengers got up and went back to bed.<br />

• The first life-boat left half full reluctance to get in.<br />

• The crew skeptical that anything was serious. Any<br />

recovery plan would have been poorly executed.<br />

• Launching 16 lifeboats took over 90 minutes. The<br />

last 2 Englehardts were floated off upside down.<br />

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In the operating stage the project team can minimize risks with the<br />

following techniques:<br />

B EST<br />

PRACTICES<br />

• Ensure once disaster is declared it is enacted according to<br />

the plan and followed without hesitation.<br />

• Ensure disaster recovery plans are easily accessible in the<br />

organization.<br />

• Nominate one group “guardian” (operations services) of<br />

the disaster recovery plan.<br />

• Ensure staff adequately trained to follow disaster recovery<br />

plans.<br />

• Practice and rehearse disaster recovery plans regularly.<br />

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Following Titanic’s s disaster, both the U.S. and British authorities<br />

conducted post-mortems. The U.S inquiry came close to uncovering<br />

the cover up.<br />

• US inquiry called 82 witnesses,<br />

specialists and technical experts.<br />

• Determined the ship had reached<br />

top speed through the ice-field with<br />

no attempt to slow down.<br />

• Forced Bruce Ismay to remain in<br />

U.S. & grilled him over role as<br />

director, and relationship with<br />

captain, officers and crew.<br />

• Recommended lifeboat space <strong>for</strong><br />

every person on all ships from U.S.<br />

ports; lifeboat drills; adequate<br />

manning of boats; and 24-hour<br />

operation of radiotelegraph<br />

equipment.<br />

• British inquiry saved White Star<br />

from bankruptcy to stop German<br />

competition.<br />

• Saw European war looming, needed<br />

large ships <strong>for</strong> troops and materials.<br />

• Condemned Captain Lord <strong>for</strong> not<br />

responding to Titanic’s flares.<br />

• Criticized British Board of Trade <strong>for</strong><br />

failing to update lifeboat regulations.<br />

• Today private lawsuits would have<br />

brought White Star.<br />

• Titanic unnerved western society’s<br />

faith in technology progress.<br />

• Olympic, served distinguished 24<br />

year career be<strong>for</strong>e being scraped.<br />

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<strong>Lessons</strong> learned - what can you take from all this. Your <strong>IT</strong><br />

project is little different to Titanic’s project.<br />

• Historical analogy cuts away layers of jargon and complexity<br />

that shroud project’s today.<br />

• Roots of Titanic’s disaster in the project, compromises to<br />

safety features and elevation of expectations allowed<br />

business pressures to override operational procedures.<br />

• This lead to numerous violations of the “rules of good<br />

seamanship”.<br />

• The probability of failure was very high because of the<br />

inability to recognize the introduced risks.<br />

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Why do projects fail? Recap of Standish group<br />

Project Success Factors<br />

1. User Involvement<br />

2. Executive Management Support<br />

3. Clear Statement of Requirements<br />

4. Proper Planning<br />

5. Realistic Expectations<br />

6. Smaller Project Milestones<br />

7. Competent Staff<br />

8. Ownership<br />

9. Clear Vision & Objectives<br />

10. Hard-Working, Focused Staff<br />

11. Other<br />

Project Impaired Factors<br />

1. Incomplete Requirements<br />

2. Lack of User Involvement<br />

3. Lack of Resources<br />

4. Unrealistic Expectations<br />

5. Lack of Executive Support<br />

6. Changing Requirements &<br />

Specifications<br />

7. Lack of Planning<br />

8. Didn't Need It Any Longer<br />

9. Lack of <strong>IT</strong> Management<br />

10. Technology lliteracy<br />

11. Other<br />

•Why we have the 9 knowledge areas from PMBOK<br />

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Mitigate risk from the project outset through the application of best<br />

practices at each stage of the <strong>IT</strong> project<br />

• 100s of best practices listed by project stage:<br />

1. Project life cycle, deliverables and iteration<br />

2. Business case <strong>for</strong> an online operation<br />

3. Mission critical application dependencies<br />

4. Architectural models and frameworks<br />

5. Enterprise application integration and<br />

interdependency of data<br />

6. Organizational and process elements<br />

7. Change and problem management<br />

8. Use of metrics, service levels objectives and<br />

agreements<br />

9. Use of automation and Early Warning Systems<br />

10. Disaster recovery & business continuity plans<br />

B EST<br />

PRACTICES<br />

Project<br />

Managers<br />

Business<br />

Executives<br />

Implementation of one best practice can save thousands of dollars<br />

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Questions<br />

This presentation will be available on-line<br />

Mark is available to work with you and your organization<br />

(PMs and Executives), speak or run workshops<br />

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Credits and Sources<br />

• 1998 MER<strong>IT</strong> Project. Best Practices in Enterprise Management.<br />

• Bonsall, Thomas E. Great Shipwrecks of the 20th Century. New York: Gallery Books.<br />

• Bristow, Diana. Titanic: Sinking the Myths.<br />

• Brown, David. The Last Log of the Titanic. McGraw-Hill.<br />

• Davie, Michael. The Titanic: The Full Story of a Tragedy. The Bodleyhead Ltd.<br />

• Hyslop, Donald, Alastair Forsyth, and Sheila Jemima. Titanic Voices. New York: St.<br />

Martin’s Press, 1998.<br />

• Lord, Walter. A Night to Remember. New York: Holt, Rinehart, & Winston, 1955.<br />

• Lord, Walter. The Night Lives On. New York: Holt, Rinehart, & Winston, 1985.<br />

• Spignesi, Stephen. The Complete Titanic. Birch Lane Press Group, 1998.<br />

• Thompson, Harvey. Customer Value Management. McGraw-Hill, 2000.<br />

• Wade, Wyn Craig. The Titanic: End of a Dream. New York: Rawson, Wade, 1979.<br />

• Wels, Susan. Titanic: Legacy of the World’s Greatest Ocean Liner. Alexandria, VA:<br />

Time-Life Books, 2000.<br />

• Illustrations were used courtesy of the Ulster Folk & Transport Museum<br />

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