Draft Final Climate Change and Health Impacts Point ... - ANTHC
Draft Final Climate Change and Health Impacts Point ... - ANTHC
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Safe, <strong>Health</strong>y, Sustainable Communities<br />
Summary<br />
Introduction<br />
Limitations<br />
Method<br />
Community Profile<br />
Observations <strong>and</strong> Findings<br />
· Weather<br />
· Sea Level<br />
· Erosion<br />
· Permafrost<br />
· Water <strong>and</strong> Sanitation<br />
· Food Safety <strong>and</strong> Security<br />
· Plants <strong>and</strong> Wildlife<br />
Discussion <strong>and</strong> Recommendations<br />
Figures<br />
1. Community Map of <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />
2. Topographical Map of <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />
TABLE OF CONTENTS<br />
3. Temperature trends <strong>and</strong> projections – Kotzebue, Alaska (Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center ACRC)<br />
4. Precipitation trends <strong>and</strong> projections – Kotzebue, Alaska (ACRC)<br />
5. Temperature Projections – <strong>Point</strong> Hope (SNAP)<br />
6. Precipitation Projections – <strong>Point</strong> Hope (SNAP)<br />
7. Sea Level Rise Projections (50 Year)<br />
8. Storm Surge Projections<br />
References<br />
Appendices<br />
A. <strong>Point</strong> Hope Participants<br />
<strong>Draft</strong> <strong>Final</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope, Alaska<br />
Prepared for:<br />
Native Village of <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />
City of <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />
Maniilaq Association<br />
North Slope Borough<br />
Northwest Arctic Borough<br />
Prepared by:<br />
Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong><br />
Alaska Native Tribal <strong>Health</strong> Consortium<br />
October 2009<br />
B. <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> Measure for Rural Alaska (CAHMRA) – <strong>Point</strong> Hope
Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong><br />
22<br />
Special thanks to the many people who assisted this project:<br />
Annabelle Alvite, David Atkinson, Lillian Alyssa, Lee Anne Ayers, Susan Beck, Matthew Bergen,<br />
Melissa Boney, Carl Borash, Gordon Brower, Jill Brubaker, Caroline Cannon, John Chase, David Christie,<br />
Louie Commack, Sally Cox, Ben Crosby, Amy Davenport, Michelle Davis, Jeffrey Demain, Heather<br />
Dingman, Michael Dirks, Liz Dowd, David Driscoll, Doug Drum, Darcy Dugan, Laura Eichelberger,<br />
Hajo Eicken, Ian Ehrlich, Jim Evak, Courtney Flint, Andrew Frankson, Teddy Frankson, Connie Fredenberg,<br />
Charlie Gregg, Yuri Gorokhovich, Kyla Hagen, Clark Hanfield, Millie Hawley, Stan Hawley, Jack H’ebert,<br />
Tom Hennessey, Grant Hildreth, Helena Hildreth, Jackie Hill, Larry Hinzman, Amy Holman,<br />
Eldon Hunnicutt, Willard Hunnicutt, Irving Igtanloc, Troy Izatt, Anore Jones, David Kang, Andy Kliskey,<br />
Angie Koonook, Ray Koonuk Sr., Mida Koenig, Danny Lane, Rachael Lee, Anthony Leiserowitz, Cindy<br />
Lincoln, John Lingaas, Harry Lind, Eva Long, James Magdanz, Ingemar Mathiasson, Molly McCammon,<br />
Jim Magdanz, Tina Moran, Steve Oomittuk, Tom Okleasik, Iris Oktolik, Bessie O’Rourke, Reggie Ovick,<br />
Toren MaCarthy, Florence Mitchell, Alan Parkinson, Sverre Pedersen, Jackie Poston, Dan Rinella,<br />
Stephanie Rolin, Bruce Richmond, Barrett Ristroph, Vladamir Romanovski, Scott Rupp, Cheryl Rosa, Bob<br />
Schaffer, Bruce Sexauer, Mark Shasby, Martha Shulski, Robbin Garber‐Slaght, Hazel Smith, Fred<br />
Sorensen, Ellen Sovalik, Kimberly Stone, Scott Sharp, Kurt Schmidt, Stanley Tomaszewski, Joe Towksjhea,<br />
Sarah Trainer, Lily Tuzroyluke, Cathy Villa, Hiram Walker, John Walsh, Jeff Welker, Dan White,<br />
Siikauraq "Martha" Whiting, Lloyd Victor, <strong>and</strong> Kenji Yoshikawa.<br />
<strong>ANTHC</strong> Advisors:<br />
Tim Gilbert MPH, Jeff Smith MS, Mike Bradley DVM MPH, Kathy Graves PhD, Steve Weaver PE,<br />
Gary Ferguson ND, Jennifer Johnson MPH, Desirae Roehl, Troy Ritter MPH, Aaron Wernham, MD MPH<br />
Report prepared by:<br />
Michael Brubaker, MS (Lead Author)<br />
James Berner, MD<br />
Jacob Bell, MS<br />
John Warren, PE<br />
Alicia Rolin
Safe, <strong>Health</strong>y, Sustainable Communities<br />
TABLE OF CONTENTS<br />
Summary 2<br />
Preface 3<br />
Introduction 3<br />
Limitations 6<br />
Method 6<br />
Community Profile 7<br />
General <strong>Health</strong> Status 8<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>and</strong> Patterns of Illness 10<br />
Observations <strong>and</strong> Findings 13<br />
· Temperature <strong>and</strong> Precipitation 14<br />
· Sea Level <strong>Change</strong> 18<br />
· Erosion 20<br />
· Permafrost 21<br />
· Snow <strong>and</strong> Ice 22<br />
· Water <strong>and</strong> Sanitation 24<br />
· Food Safety <strong>and</strong> Security 26<br />
Recommendations <strong>and</strong> Conclusions 27<br />
Figures<br />
1. Map of Maniilaq Service Area 4<br />
2. Map of <strong>Point</strong> Hope Area 5<br />
3. Aerial Photograph of <strong>Point</strong> Hope Community 9<br />
4. Leading Causes of Death, Age Adjusted Mortality Rate per 100,000 (1993‐2003) 10<br />
5. Top 15 Hospital Discharges by ICD Code, All Ages, FY 2005 11<br />
6. Kotzebue Average Temperature (°F) 15<br />
7. Kotzebue Total Annual Precipitation (inches) 15<br />
8. Mean Monthly Temperature, <strong>Point</strong> Hope, Alaska 17<br />
9. Projected Temperature, <strong>Point</strong> Hope, Alaska 17<br />
10. Potentially Submerged Areas Due to Sea Level Rise at Pt. Hope 19<br />
11. Potentially Submerged Areas Due to Storm Surge at Pt. Hope 19<br />
12. Mean Monthly Snow Depth for the Period 1971‐2000 23<br />
13. Mean Monthly Wind Speeds for the Period 1990‐2009 23<br />
14. Filter <strong>Change</strong>s/Day – July 2007 <strong>and</strong> July 2008 25<br />
15. Daily Mean Air Temperature <strong>and</strong> Wind Velocity for July 2008 25<br />
16. <strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Health</strong> Impact Severity/Vulnerability Table 28<br />
Appendices 32<br />
A Archived (1971– 2000) <strong>and</strong> Projected Precipitation Data 33<br />
B <strong>Point</strong> Hope Participants/Project Collaborators 34<br />
C <strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> Web Resources 35<br />
D Photos 36<br />
References 38
SUMMARY<br />
In the community of <strong>Point</strong> Hope, subsistence resources, food security, drinking water quality, <strong>and</strong><br />
infrastructure are vulnerable to impacts from climate change. There is limited scientific information to<br />
show relationships between climate effects <strong>and</strong> health outcomes. However, local observations <strong>and</strong><br />
community records indicate that climate change is increasing the risk of injury <strong>and</strong> disease, <strong>and</strong> the risk<br />
of disruption or damage to health infrastructure. Additionally, climate change is placing stress on<br />
municipal resources <strong>and</strong> adding to the cost of water treatment, beach protection, <strong>and</strong> road<br />
maintenance.<br />
Weather archive data from the 1930s show a gradual increase in mean annual temperature <strong>and</strong><br />
precipitation in <strong>Point</strong> Hope. By 2061 to 2070, climate models suggest that average July temperatures will<br />
have increased by approximately 2 o F, <strong>and</strong> December temperatures by 22 o F. Since 1991, average winter<br />
temperatures (January through March) have been below 0 o F, but in 50 years, monthly average<br />
temperatures may not drop below 0 o F, but rather could range between 5 o F <strong>and</strong> 30 o F. Increases in<br />
precipitation are projected for every month except June, as is a drier summer with broad ranging<br />
changes to wildlife, vegetation, <strong>and</strong> water availability.<br />
The rate of shoreline erosion is increasing due to changes in timing of ocean freezing <strong>and</strong> thawing,<br />
delays in the development of shore‐fast ice, <strong>and</strong> increases in the intensity of storms. Flooding has been<br />
prevented through village relocation <strong>and</strong> sea wall construction. Despite these efforts, <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />
continues to be vulnerable to storm surges <strong>and</strong> ice jams, with both the air strip <strong>and</strong> overl<strong>and</strong> evacuation<br />
route at risk. It is projected that mean sea level could cover much of the <strong>Point</strong> Hope Peninsula within 50<br />
to 100 years.<br />
<strong>Change</strong>s in weather <strong>and</strong> ice conditions are causing delays to subsistence activities, including the timing<br />
of spring whale <strong>and</strong> walrus hunts. Ice conditions have been inadequate in recent years to provide haulout<br />
platforms for walrus, or for hunters to clean bowhead whales. Shore ice has become unstable,<br />
putting hunters at greater risk for injury. In the spring of 2008, shore‐fast ice broke free, casting <strong>Point</strong><br />
Hope whaling crews <strong>and</strong> camps adrift, <strong>and</strong> requiring a helicopter rescue from Barrow. Hunters are also<br />
observing changes in wildlife. Hungry polar bears have begun to frequent <strong>Point</strong> Hope, becoming a<br />
nuisance <strong>and</strong> a public safety concern. Warm summer temperatures are providing opportunities for<br />
invasive species to become established <strong>and</strong> in some instances to interfere with subsistence activities.<br />
Ravens <strong>and</strong> gull populations are increasing <strong>and</strong> interfering with summer fish camp activities. Beaver are<br />
changing the river system <strong>and</strong> increasing the risk of waterborne disease. New fish species such as king<br />
salmon are being harvested, providing a positive new subsistence opportunity.<br />
Two issues were identified that are of special public health concern: food security <strong>and</strong> water quality.<br />
First, the permafrost that cools traditional underground food storage cellars is thawing, <strong>and</strong> there are<br />
currently no community alternatives for storage of whale meat <strong>and</strong> blubber. Secondly, warming is<br />
contributing to changes in 7 Mile Lake, the community drinking water source. Temperature influenced<br />
blooms of organic material have clogged water filters, adversely affecting water treatment.<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope would benefit from increased participation in weather, coastal zone <strong>and</strong> wildlife observation<br />
<strong>and</strong> monitoring programs, exp<strong>and</strong>ed collaborations with researchers, <strong>and</strong> increased local capacity for<br />
climate change coordination <strong>and</strong> management. Through such efforts, informed decision‐making can<br />
occur within local government to address vulnerabilities, <strong>and</strong> to adapt to climate change impacts.<br />
2
PREFACE<br />
In May 2006, the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions at Columbia University hosted a<br />
workshop in Kotzebue with the purpose of identifying climate change impacts, key vulnerabilities, <strong>and</strong><br />
adaptation options (Gregory et al., 2006). In November 2007, a second workshop, hosted by the Alaska<br />
Center for <strong>Climate</strong> Assessment <strong>and</strong> Policy was held in Kotzebue to report on climate research activities<br />
<strong>and</strong> explore further research needs <strong>and</strong> opportunities (Trainor, 2007). In both meetings, concerns were<br />
raised about the safety <strong>and</strong> security of food <strong>and</strong> water resources, community vulnerability to changes<br />
occurring on the l<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> sea, <strong>and</strong> the affects of climate change on public health.<br />
Participants called for more community‐based research <strong>and</strong> development of processes to assess local<br />
climate impacts. This paper reports on the findings from one community <strong>and</strong> demonstrates a process for<br />
evaluating local climate impacts on health. What occurred in the past is reported based on the record,<br />
<strong>and</strong> the recollection of <strong>Point</strong> Hope residents. What will happen in the future is unknown, <strong>and</strong> the reader<br />
is reminded that all predictions included in this report are subject to inherent uncertainty, <strong>and</strong> limited by<br />
the quality of data <strong>and</strong> the state of the science in this developing field of health impact assessment.<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a<br />
result of human activity (IPCC, 2008). <strong>Climate</strong> is changing rapidly in the Northwest Arctic <strong>and</strong> leadership<br />
organizations seek better information about impacts <strong>and</strong> vulnerabilities, so that adaptive measures can<br />
be developed. This includes new approaches for developing health infrastructure <strong>and</strong> providing health<br />
services <strong>and</strong> health care. The twelve Northwest Arctic communities receive health services from<br />
Maniilaq Association, the regional tribal health consortium for the Northwest Arctic (Figure 1).<br />
The community of <strong>Point</strong> Hope is located at the western most point on the northwest Alaska coast<br />
(Figure 2). Life in <strong>Point</strong> Hope revolves around the harvest of sea mammals: walrus, seal, <strong>and</strong>, most<br />
importantly, whale. In 2009, many things are the same as they have been for thous<strong>and</strong>s of years;<br />
whaling crews <strong>and</strong> their families spend months preparing for the spring hunt, repairing skin boats <strong>and</strong><br />
wooden sleds, mending clothing <strong>and</strong> tents, sharpening harpoons, <strong>and</strong> preparing underground food<br />
cellars for storage of meat <strong>and</strong> blubber. But whaling, like other aspects of life in <strong>Point</strong> Hope, is changing.<br />
In almost every month the air temperature is warmer. Sea ice is diminishing, making travel <strong>and</strong> hunting<br />
more difficult <strong>and</strong> dangerous. New species of plants, fish, birds, <strong>and</strong> other wildlife are becoming<br />
increasingly common, while endemic species such as walrus are becoming increasingly rare. L<strong>and</strong> is<br />
thawing, washing away into the rivers or disappearing in great chunks into the Chukchi Sea. Warming<br />
water is causing blooms of algae in tundra ponds, changing the ecology <strong>and</strong> diminishing drinking water<br />
quality.<br />
These changes are influencing food <strong>and</strong> water security <strong>and</strong> the potential for disease <strong>and</strong> injury. They are<br />
also raising new concerns about the effects of life‐altering change on the mental health of Arctic people.<br />
Many effects are negative, but some can be positive: new food resources, a shorter flu season,<br />
economic opportunity, <strong>and</strong> a lengthened season for making potable water. This project has recorded<br />
local observations, described climate relationships (where possible), <strong>and</strong> explored potential community<br />
health implications. It is hoped that this work will help facilitate informed decision‐making, <strong>and</strong> the<br />
development of adaptive measures that will encourage a safe, healthy, <strong>and</strong> sustainable future for the<br />
people of <strong>Point</strong> Hope.<br />
3
4<br />
Figure 1 Map of Maniilaq Service Area (<strong>ANTHC</strong>, 2008).
Figure 2 Map of <strong>Point</strong> Hope (Tikigaq Corporation, 2009)<br />
5
LIMITATIONS<br />
This report documents observed climate‐related change in one community <strong>and</strong> evaluates potential<br />
effects on health. Although there is good regional climate <strong>and</strong> general health data for the Maniilaq Area,<br />
local data is limited. Weather archives are incomplete, coastal erosion rates are outdated, permafrost<br />
measures are unavailable, <strong>and</strong> estimates of sea level change have not been performed.<br />
Local data was used when available, but the assessment was limited both by the data gaps <strong>and</strong> by the<br />
limitations of down scaling from regional sources. The value of health indicators, such as incidence of<br />
heart disease or pneumonia, is difficult to gauge at the community level because small populations limit<br />
the statistical reliability.<br />
Anecdotal data was collected on the observations <strong>and</strong> experience from local experts in health, wildlife,<br />
whaling, Inupiat culture, weather, subsistence, education, sanitation, local governance, law<br />
enforcement, <strong>and</strong> emergency services (Appendix B). Predictions <strong>and</strong> projections on future conditions<br />
such as warming, flooding, <strong>and</strong> erosion are based on available information, <strong>and</strong> limited by the quality of<br />
current scientific data <strong>and</strong> the uncertainties inherent in climate models.<br />
To properly address any public health issue, there is a need for awareness of the problem <strong>and</strong> its<br />
importance, an underst<strong>and</strong>ing of health determinants, <strong>and</strong> knowledge of the appropriate leadership<br />
sector <strong>and</strong> their capacity to respond (Ebi et al., 2005). The two categories of public health response to<br />
climate change are mitigation <strong>and</strong> adaptation. Mitigation involves limiting ‘exposure’ to risk, such as by<br />
restricting green house gas emissions, or enhancing carbon sink processes (Fussel et al., 2006).<br />
Adaptation to climate change involves a response by humans or natural systems to actual or expected<br />
climatic effects, in order to minimize harm <strong>and</strong> to maximize benefits (IPCC, 2008). Present day mitigation<br />
efforts can limit future impacts, but cannot eliminate the need for adaptation (Parry et al., 2008). This<br />
report focuses on local health impact adaptation; potential mitigation activities are not addressed.<br />
METHOD<br />
The assessment was initiated based on requests from statewide tribal health representatives, <strong>and</strong> from<br />
local <strong>and</strong> regional leadership. Supporting resolutions were provided by the Maniilaq Association, the<br />
Northwest Arctic Borough, <strong>and</strong> the North Slope Borough. Invitations to work in <strong>Point</strong> Hope were<br />
provided by City of <strong>Point</strong> Hope Mayor Steve Oomittuk, <strong>and</strong> Native Village of <strong>Point</strong> Hope President, Lily<br />
Tuzroyluke.<br />
Information about local climate, environment, <strong>and</strong> health conditions was collected from local <strong>and</strong><br />
regional tribal organizations, regional <strong>and</strong> local governments, academic institutions, <strong>and</strong> state <strong>and</strong><br />
federal agencies. Educational outreach has included a Northwest Arctic <strong>Climate</strong> Teleconference series to<br />
raise awareness about climate change in the region.<br />
From April 29 to May 4, 2009, a site visit was performed by Michael Brubaker of <strong>ANTHC</strong>. Interviews were<br />
performed with whaling captains, representatives from the city, tribal council, borough, health clinic,<br />
fire department, police department, water <strong>and</strong> waste water utility, public works, <strong>and</strong> the school<br />
(Appendix B). A priority was placed on interviewing representatives from organizations that provide<br />
services or have important insight into community health. Interviews were performed with elders <strong>and</strong><br />
6
youths <strong>and</strong> presentations were made to junior high, high school, <strong>and</strong> elementary level students at the<br />
Tikigaq School. Photographs <strong>and</strong> video of local conditions were recorded where possible.<br />
Information from interviews was collected <strong>and</strong> recorded in the <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> Measure (CAHM), a<br />
survey tool used to organize local observations, <strong>and</strong> record potential health effects, data gaps <strong>and</strong><br />
adaptation measures. Local <strong>and</strong> regional partners reviewed the CAHM <strong>and</strong> provided comments on the<br />
draft report.<br />
Findings were presented to partner organizations in <strong>Point</strong> Hope, Kotzebue, <strong>and</strong> Barrow, <strong>and</strong> efforts are<br />
on‐going to connect local <strong>and</strong> regional leadership with climate change experts <strong>and</strong> to identify resources<br />
that will encourage implementation of community appropriate adaptation measures.<br />
COMMUNITY PROFILE<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope is located 330 miles southwest of Barrow <strong>and</strong> 180 miles north of Kotzebue (Alaska Division<br />
of Community Advocacy, 2009). It is near the tip of Tigara Peninsula, a gravel spit that is the western<br />
most point on the Northwest Alaska coast (Figure 3). It is also within the boundaries of the North Slope<br />
Borough <strong>and</strong> receives health services from the Maniilaq Association. All other communities served by<br />
Maniilaq are located in the Northwest Arctic Borough.<br />
The Chukchi Sea surrounds the <strong>Point</strong> Hope promontory on three sides but the near shore waters are<br />
very shallow; up to five miles from the shore, the water reaches depths of only 60 feet. Tides do not<br />
have a direct impact on <strong>Point</strong> Hope, but strong ocean currents bring waters north through the Bering<br />
Strait. Sea ice can be present from October to early July. Sediments deposited by the Ipewik <strong>and</strong> Kukpuk<br />
branches of the Kuukpak River form beach ridges that extend into the sea in a triangular shape. The<br />
mountainous areas reach elevations of 1,000 to 2,000 feet in the Lisburne Hills to the north <strong>and</strong> the<br />
Kemegrak Hills to the south.<br />
The Tigara (Tikeraq) Peninsula, named for the Inupiaq word for index finger, dates back to 600 B.C as<br />
one of the oldest continuously occupied Iñupiat marine mammal hunting communities in the Arctic.<br />
Commercial whaling came to <strong>Point</strong> Hope in the 1800s, including shore‐based stations. For the next 100<br />
years commercial whaling exerted a powerful influence on <strong>Point</strong> Hope, providing jobs, but also<br />
increasing exposure to western goods, technology, culture, <strong>and</strong> disease. The City of <strong>Point</strong> Hope was<br />
incorporated in 1966. The Native Village of <strong>Point</strong> Hope is the federally recognized tribal government.<br />
In 1990, <strong>Point</strong> Hope had a total population of 639. In 2000, the population was 757, with 91% Alaska<br />
Native. In 2000, 25.71% of the population was employed <strong>and</strong> 51.32% of adults were not in the<br />
workforce. The median household income was $63,125, per capita income was $16,641, <strong>and</strong> 14.83% of<br />
residents were living below the poverty level (DCCED, 2009). Most full‐time employment is with the city,<br />
tribal <strong>and</strong> borough governments, or with Tikigaq, the local Alaska Native for‐profit corporation formed<br />
under the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act.<br />
Residents are active year‐round with subsistence activities for seals, walrus, bowhead whales, beluga<br />
whales, caribou, polar bears, birds, fish <strong>and</strong> berries, greens, <strong>and</strong> other edible plants. Commercial fishing<br />
is limited; in 2000, only two residents held a commercial fishing permit. Whalebone masks, baleen<br />
baskets, ivory carvings, <strong>and</strong> Inupiat clothing are manufactured locally. <strong>Point</strong> Hope is a dry community,<br />
where the sale, importation or possession of alcohol is banned.<br />
7
A paved airstrip provides <strong>Point</strong> Hope's only year‐round access. An overl<strong>and</strong> evacuation route via the 7<br />
Mile Road leads inl<strong>and</strong>. Skiffs, skin boats, <strong>and</strong> snowmachines are used for local transportation <strong>and</strong><br />
barges deliver goods during summer months.<br />
The North Slope Borough provides all utilities, <strong>and</strong> piped water <strong>and</strong> sewer is available for most residents.<br />
The water source is a tundra lake located seven miles from the town. The Tikigaq School provides K‐12<br />
education for approximately 223 students.<br />
The <strong>Point</strong> Hope Clinic is staffed by two community health aides <strong>and</strong> residents must travel about 150<br />
miles by air to Kotzebue for the next level of primary care <strong>and</strong> some specialty care at the Kotzebue<br />
Hospital. Most specialty health care is provided at the Alaska Native Medical Center, located 540 air<br />
miles away in Anchorage.<br />
GENERAL HEALTH STATUS<br />
<strong>Health</strong> is a state of complete physical, mental, <strong>and</strong> social well‐being <strong>and</strong> not merely the absence of<br />
disease or infirmity (World <strong>Health</strong> Organization, 1946).<br />
Individual health is determined by a variety of factors including heredity, personal behavior, <strong>and</strong> the<br />
environmental, economic <strong>and</strong> social factors collectively termed “social determinants. <strong>Climate</strong> change in<br />
the Northwest Arctic has the potential to impact all determinants of health, changing communities <strong>and</strong><br />
individual vulnerability to disease <strong>and</strong> injury.<br />
Identifying linkages between climate change <strong>and</strong> health effects can help in the prevention of negative<br />
health outcomes. This requires an underst<strong>and</strong>ing of the community, the general health of the<br />
population, <strong>and</strong> the types of environmental changes that are occurring.<br />
This section provides a summary of general health status for the Maniilaq Service Area (Figure 2). <strong>Health</strong><br />
data on a regional scale is available on major indicators, such as mortality, disease rates, <strong>and</strong> causes for<br />
hospitalization (<strong>ANTHC</strong>, 2008). <strong>Health</strong> data was not available at the community level. Interviews were<br />
performed with clinic staff about potential climate related health effects.<br />
During the last half century, indicators of overall health have improved substantially for Alaska Natives.<br />
In 1950, the life expectancy for Alaska Natives was 46.6 years; by 1998 it had climbed to 69.5 years<br />
(Goldsmith et al., 2004). Between 1979 <strong>and</strong> 1998, overall mortality decreased among Alaska Natives by<br />
20%, largely attributed to decreases in death from infectious disease <strong>and</strong> unintentional injuries (Lanier<br />
et al., 2002). Improvements in socio‐economic status, housing, sanitation, <strong>and</strong> health care all<br />
contributed to general improvement in Alaska Native health.<br />
8
Figure 3 Aerial Photograph of <strong>Point</strong> Hope (Google Earth, 2009)<br />
9
Despite health successes, significant health disparities remain between the non‐Native population <strong>and</strong><br />
Alaska Natives. As mortality rates from infectious disease <strong>and</strong> incidence of vaccine‐preventable diseases<br />
have decreased, rates for chronic diseases including cancer (+12%), chronic obstructive pulmonary<br />
disease (+191%), <strong>and</strong> diabetes (+ 262%) have increased.<br />
Mortality rates for Alaska Natives exceed “U.S. All Races” for all causes except heart disease (<strong>ANTHC</strong>,<br />
2009). Injury rates, suicide <strong>and</strong> health problems related to social strain <strong>and</strong> change (such as domestic<br />
violence, alcohol <strong>and</strong> substance abuse, assault, <strong>and</strong> homicide) remain far higher than rates for the<br />
general U.S. population (<strong>ANTHC</strong>, January 2008).<br />
Between 1999 <strong>and</strong> 2003, the top five leading causes of death in the Maniilaq Area were: 1) cancer, 2)<br />
heart disease, 3) unintentional injuries, 4) cerebrovascular diseases <strong>and</strong> 5) suicide (Figure 4). In 2005,<br />
the number one cause of hospitalization was pneumonia (Figure 5).<br />
Figure 4. Leading Cause of Death, Age Adjusted Mortality Rate per 100,000 (1999‐2003)<br />
Mortality Rates<br />
Age adjusted per 100,000<br />
Maniilaq<br />
AN<br />
Statewide<br />
AN<br />
US<br />
Whites<br />
<strong>Health</strong>y<br />
Peoples<br />
2010<br />
Rate Ration<br />
(Maniilaq AN vs.<br />
US Whites)<br />
1 Cancer 347.8 245.4 193.5 159.9 1.8<br />
2 Heart Disease 321.3 211.4 234.6 166.0 1.3<br />
3 Unintentional Injuries 133.6 116.1 36.4 17.5 3.7<br />
4 Cerebrovascular Diseases 80.4 64.4 55.6 48.0 1.4<br />
5 Suicide 79.5 36.3 11.6 5.0 6.9<br />
AN ‐ Alaska Native<br />
US Whites ‐ a population commonly used as a comparison measure<br />
<strong>Health</strong>y People 2010 – Statewide <strong>Health</strong> Objectives<br />
Alaska Data Source: Alaska Bureau of Vital Statistics. Analysis conducted by Alaska Native Epidemiology Center.<br />
US Data Source: Surveillance, Epidemiology, <strong>and</strong> End Results (SEER) Program, National Cancer Institute.<br />
CLIMATE CHANGE AND PATTERNS OF ILLNESS<br />
An illness is termed acute when it has a rapid onset or a short course. An illness is termed chronic when<br />
it is long‐lasting or recurrent. This section provides a brief discussion about patterns of acute illness such<br />
as injuries <strong>and</strong> infectious diseases; <strong>and</strong> chronic illness such as heart disease, diabetes <strong>and</strong> cancer, as well<br />
as a discussion about potential relationships to climate change.<br />
10
Figure 5. Top 15 Maniilaq <strong>Health</strong> Center, Discharges by ICD Code, All Ages, Fiscal Year 2005<br />
Rank Cause Number % Total<br />
1 Pneumonia 55 55.6<br />
2 Deliveries (childbirth) 36 36.4<br />
3 Accidents <strong>and</strong> Injuries 17 17.2<br />
4 Heart Disease 12 12.1<br />
5 Neuroses & Personality Disorders 9 9.1<br />
6 Psychoses 8 8.1<br />
7 Bronchitis, Emphysema 7 7.1<br />
8 Urinary Tract Diseases 7 7.1<br />
9 Complications of Pregnancy 7 7.1<br />
10 Disease of the Blood 6 6.1<br />
11 Injected Skin 6 6.1<br />
12 Nutrition <strong>and</strong> Metabolic Disorders 4 4.0<br />
13 Cerebrovascular Disease 4 4.0<br />
14 Disease of the Gall Bladder 3 3.0<br />
15 Convulsions 3 3.0<br />
Data Source ‐ Indian <strong>Health</strong> Service, NPIRS (Patient Registration System)<br />
ICD ‐ International Classification of Diseases (WHO)<br />
Note: ICD Recode combines similar primary diagnoses into categories.<br />
Acute Illness<br />
Unintentional Injury: Between 1999 <strong>and</strong> 2003, unintentional injury was the second leading cause of<br />
death in the Maniilaq Area. Injury rates correlate closely with alcohol use <strong>and</strong> social strain. Alcohol has<br />
been estimated to be involved in up to 38% of all injury hospitalizations in Alaska Natives (<strong>ANTHC</strong>,<br />
January 2008). There has, however, been some reduction in unintentional injury mortality rates, largely<br />
due to injury prevention programs <strong>and</strong> the efficacy of local alcohol prohibition ordinances (Lanier et al.,<br />
2002).<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change has been associated with increases in extreme weather that can increase risk for<br />
hypothermia, frostbite, heatstroke or heat exhaustion. Delayed freeze‐up, early thaw, or unusual midseason<br />
weather can increase hazards <strong>and</strong> result in vehicular accidents <strong>and</strong> falls through ice. Between<br />
1999 <strong>and</strong> 2006, favorable climate conditions for stinging insects resulted in an increase (+626%) in<br />
health facility visits in Northern Alaska (Demain et al., 2008). Storms, floods, erosion, wildfires, <strong>and</strong><br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides are other examples of climate‐related effects that can increase the risk of injury.<br />
Infectious Disease: Infectious disease continues to be a major health concern in the Maniilaq Area,<br />
including respiratory <strong>and</strong> skin infections (<strong>ANTHC</strong>, 2008). In 2005, pneumonia was the leading cause of<br />
hospitalization, accounting for over 55% of hospital discharges (Figure 5). A recent study found that<br />
Alaska Natives in homes without running water experience far higher rates of pneumonia <strong>and</strong> other<br />
serious lower respiratory tract infections than do Alaska Natives in homes with complete water service<br />
11
(Hennessy et al., 2008). Approximately 18% of households in the Maniilaq Area do not have access to<br />
piped water service. Infants in villages with the lowest percentage of homes with running water are<br />
hospitalized for pneumonia 11 times more often than infants in the overall U.S. population.<br />
Warming temperatures may lead to an increase in food‐borne <strong>and</strong> gastrointestinal diseases (Parkinson,<br />
2008). <strong>Climate</strong> change may indirectly increase the risk of infectious disease when extreme weather<br />
events damage or disrupts sanitation services. Infectious diseases are also spreading to the Arctic from<br />
warmer areas; examples include giardia, a parasite in beavers that contaminates water, <strong>and</strong> brucella,<br />
the bacteria that causes brucellosis, a disease like tuberculosis that is carried by both sea <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong><br />
mammals. <strong>Climate</strong> change could also decrease some disease, as the number of respiratory infections in<br />
a population is primarily determined by length of the winter disease (flu) season.<br />
Chronic Illness<br />
Chronic Illnesses, such as cancer, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease (e.g. stroke), metabolic disease<br />
(e.g. diabetes), <strong>and</strong> pulmonary (lung) disease, are on the rise among Alaska Natives, including the<br />
Maniilaq Area. Practicing a healthy lifestyle is an important preventive behavior for all of these diseases.<br />
In the Inupiat culture, social structure, economy, <strong>and</strong> individual health are grounded in the subsistence<br />
lifestyle, which includes a diet based on the consumption of traditional foods.<br />
The traditional subsistence diet is rich in essential nutrients <strong>and</strong> provides a wide range of welldocumented<br />
protective health benefits against chronic illness, as well as contributing to cultural<br />
integrity, mental health, physical activity, <strong>and</strong> overall wellness. An emerging health risk for Alaska<br />
Natives is the potential negative effects of climate change on the availability <strong>and</strong> quality of traditional<br />
subsistence foods.<br />
Cancer: In the early part of the 20 th century, cancer was not a major cause of death among Alaska<br />
Natives. But cancer rates have been gradually rising, due largely to longer life span, changing diet, <strong>and</strong><br />
growing behavioral risk factors such as tobacco use. During the 1990s, as the overall U.S. cancer death<br />
rate declined, the rates of cancer among Alaska Natives increased (<strong>ANTHC</strong>, 2004).<br />
Between 2004 <strong>and</strong> 2007, cancer was the second leading cause of death among Alaska Natives (<strong>ANTHC</strong>,<br />
2009). Nine types of cancer are more frequent among Alaska Natives than in the U.S. white population:<br />
nasopharynx, esophagus, stomach, colon/rectum, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, lung, <strong>and</strong> kidney.<br />
Between 1989 <strong>and</strong> 2004, cancer was the leading cause of mortality (age adjusted) in the Maniilaq Area.<br />
The most frequent occurring cancer among men was colon, for women breast cancer, <strong>and</strong> colon cancer<br />
for both sexes combined (<strong>ANTHC</strong>, 2008).<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>‐related influences on cancer risk include impacts to subsistence lifestyle <strong>and</strong> the potential to<br />
increase exposure to environmental contaminants that are from local sources (such as dump sites) or<br />
from global sources <strong>and</strong> transported to the Arctic by ocean, air currents, <strong>and</strong> migratory species. Thawing<br />
of ice, snow, <strong>and</strong> permafrost mobilizes pollutants (both natural <strong>and</strong> man‐made) including carcinogens<br />
like PCBs <strong>and</strong> DDT, <strong>and</strong> metals like mercury (Berner & Furgal, 2005).<br />
Cardiovascular Disease: Cardiovascular disease includes diseases of the heart <strong>and</strong> circulation system.<br />
Along with various forms of heart disease <strong>and</strong> stroke, it is the leading cause of death in the United States<br />
12
<strong>and</strong> a major cause of disability. Along with associated risk factors such as obesity, glucose intolerance,<br />
diabetes, <strong>and</strong> hypertension, the rate of cardiovascular disease is increasing among Alaska Natives.<br />
Multiple studies associate cardiovascular disease among Alaska Natives with increased intake of<br />
nontraditional foods (Murphy et al., 1995; Nobmann et al., 2005; Stang et al., 2005). Alaska Natives have<br />
also been increasingly exposed to social <strong>and</strong> environmental risk factors such as tobacco use, <strong>and</strong><br />
transition to lifestyles that are less physically active (Eberhart‐Phillips et al., 2003). People that continue<br />
to live a traditional subsistence lifestyle are generally at lower risk for cardiovascular disease.<br />
Mental <strong>Health</strong>: The World <strong>Health</strong> Organization defines mental health as "a state of well‐being in which<br />
the individual realizes his or her own abilities, can cope with the normal stresses of life, can work<br />
productively <strong>and</strong> fruitfully, <strong>and</strong> is able to make a contribution to his or her community” (WHO, 2005).<br />
Alaska Natives experience high rates of mental health problems including anxiety, depression, assault,<br />
suicide, drug <strong>and</strong> alcohol abuse, <strong>and</strong> domestic violence.<br />
Causal factors may include rapid cultural change (Curtis et al., 2005) <strong>and</strong> the sense of profound loss of<br />
past social, cultural, <strong>and</strong> environmental conditions (Albrecht et al. 2006). Another factor is distress from<br />
threats to one’s community, environment, or way of life. Until the threat is removed, people respond<br />
emotionally, based upon their coping abilities (Luginaah et al., 2002).<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change can generate stress <strong>and</strong> fear related to the safety <strong>and</strong> security of family, home, <strong>and</strong><br />
community. <strong>Change</strong>s in wildlife, habitat, l<strong>and</strong>scape, weather, traditional practices, <strong>and</strong> cultural sites<br />
among others areas, may compound existing concerns. <strong>Climate</strong> change may also increase competition<br />
for limited resources, affecting interpersonal <strong>and</strong> intergroup behavior (American Psychological<br />
Association, 2009).<br />
OBSERVATIONS AND FINDINGS<br />
This section provides a summary of the findings based on the seven categories deemed relevant to the<br />
Maniilaq Area. For each category a summary is provided of the observations reported by <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />
residents, as well as data acquired from local sources, published studies, government records, or<br />
experts.<br />
At the top of each section, a short list is provided summarizing Observed <strong>Change</strong>s, <strong>Health</strong> Concerns, <strong>and</strong><br />
Potential Adaptation, measures. Where possible, “Projected Future <strong>Change</strong>” has been provided based<br />
on observed or measured trends, projections, or climate models.<br />
13
Temperature <strong>and</strong> Precipitation<br />
Observed change: increasing variability <strong>and</strong> extremes; delayed freeze‐up <strong>and</strong> early thaw.<br />
<strong>Health</strong> concerns: injury from extreme weather, increased cost for basic services.<br />
Projected future change: warmer <strong>and</strong> more precipitation, winter temperatures above 0°F.<br />
Potential adaptation: improve local weather observations, injury prevention.<br />
In <strong>Point</strong> Hope, significant changes in temperature, precipitation, wind, <strong>and</strong> other indicators of climate<br />
change have been observed by local residents. This includes an increase in frequency of extreme<br />
weather <strong>and</strong> changes in seasonality, with spring thaw occurring earlier <strong>and</strong> the fall freeze‐up occurring<br />
later. Residents report summers that are very hot <strong>and</strong> dry, <strong>and</strong> winters that are more variable, with<br />
sudden <strong>and</strong> dramatic temperature swings between very cold <strong>and</strong> very warm. The exception was the<br />
winter of 2008/2009 which brought extreme high temperatures, then low temperatures, <strong>and</strong> then<br />
record snow fall <strong>and</strong> snow accumulation.<br />
Over the past 50 years, Alaska has warmed at more than twice the rate of the rest of the country. The<br />
annual average temperature in Alaska has increased 3.4°F, with winters warming by 6.3°F (Fitzpatrick et<br />
al., 2008). Average annual temperatures are projected to rise another 3.5°F to 7°F by the middle of this<br />
century (U.S. Global <strong>Change</strong> Research Program, 2009). The <strong>Point</strong> Hope climate is arctic. Historically,<br />
summers have been short <strong>and</strong> cool, with temperatures ranging from 30°F to 50°F. During the winter,<br />
temperatures averaged below zero, sometimes as cold as ‐50°F, but generally between 0 <strong>and</strong> ‐10°F.<br />
Precipitation is light, 10 to 12 inches annually, with about 36 inches of snowfall that becomes hardpacked<br />
by November. Strong northern surface winds bring storms of blowing snow. The Chukchi Sea has<br />
typically been ice‐free from late June until mid‐September, when the slush ice would form along the<br />
shoreline.<br />
Weather data is collected from the FAA Station at the <strong>Point</strong> Hope airstrip <strong>and</strong> includes: wind speed,<br />
wind direction, dew point, precipitation, snow fall, snow on the ground, peak winds, extreme snow<br />
loads, <strong>and</strong> temperature (Figures 5, 6, 13, 14; Appendix A1, A2). Archive data is available from 1924 to<br />
1954, but is incomplete with no data during the 1960s, 70s, or 80s. Weather data for <strong>Point</strong> Hope from<br />
1991 until 2008 is available from the Kotzebue Field Office of the National Weather Service (NWS). A<br />
comparison of mean monthly temperature for this period shows that <strong>Point</strong> Hope is an average of five to<br />
ten degrees colder then Kotzebue during summer months, but has approximately the same average<br />
winter temperatures. Additionally, Kotzebue <strong>and</strong> <strong>Point</strong> Hope have increased temperature at roughly the<br />
same rate since 1944.<br />
Archive weather data (temperature <strong>and</strong> precipitation) for Kotzebue spans from the 1930s until the<br />
present. The Kotzebue temperature data shows a gradual increase in average annual temperature <strong>and</strong><br />
total annual precipitation between the 1940s <strong>and</strong> the present. Figures 6 provides trend data on mean<br />
annual temperature from the 1930s until 2010 (projected). Figure 7 provides trend data on mean annual<br />
precipitation from the late 1940s until 2005.<br />
Between 1949 <strong>and</strong> 2006 the Northwest Arctic had an increase in average annual temperature of 3.2 o F<br />
(Shulski, 2007). During this period, winter temperatures changed most dramatically <strong>and</strong> fall<br />
temperatures the least. For December through January, temperatures increased by 6.8 o F, spring (March<br />
to May) increased by 2.1 o F, summer (June to August) by 2.4 o F, <strong>and</strong> fall (Sept to Nov) by 1.4 o F.<br />
14
Figure 6<br />
Source: Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center<br />
Figure 7<br />
Source: Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center<br />
15
Observations from <strong>Point</strong> Hope residents reflect local concerns over the relationship between weather<br />
<strong>and</strong> health. One elder stated that weather variability was increasing frequency of infectious diseases like<br />
colds <strong>and</strong> influenza, <strong>and</strong> severity of chronic conditions such as arthritis (Towksjhea,, J. 2009). School<br />
officials noted that the wind <strong>and</strong> extreme cold during the winter was unsafe for young children traveling<br />
to <strong>and</strong> from school (McCarthy, T. 2009).<br />
There was no data of a change in rates of weather‐related health issues, such as vehicle accidents,<br />
hypothermia or frostbite (Davenport, A. 2009; Sharp, S. 2009). However, as reported by the Fire Chief,<br />
there were frequent travel alerts via VHF radio, 20 search <strong>and</strong> rescues were performed this year, <strong>and</strong><br />
winter travelers exercised caution <strong>and</strong> used borough supplied personal locator beacons (Hunnicutt, W.<br />
2009a). When activated, the beacons send out a signal that is picked up by search <strong>and</strong> rescue services in<br />
Barrow.<br />
According to the Village Services Supervisor, extreme snowfall resulted in increased costs for labor, fuel,<br />
maintenance, <strong>and</strong> repairs on heavy equipment. This created an added <strong>and</strong> unexpected burden on the<br />
city’s general fund (Stone, K. 2009). Local governments typically do not have the financial resources to<br />
provide exp<strong>and</strong>ed levels of service. If extreme weather results in funding shortfalls, it can affect health<br />
by undermining other services, such as operation <strong>and</strong> maintenance of water <strong>and</strong> sewer infrastructure.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> projections provided by the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP) at UAF indicate that<br />
trends of increasing precipitation <strong>and</strong> temperature will continue in <strong>Point</strong> Hope. Figures 8 <strong>and</strong> 9 provide<br />
projections based on the SNAP models. Current (1990‐2009) average temperatures in <strong>Point</strong> Hope are<br />
below zero from January through March. In 50 years, it is projected that no month will have an average<br />
temperature below 0 o F; rather average monthly temperature will range between roughly 5 o F to 30 o F.<br />
Current summer average temperatures (1990‐2009) range from 35 o F to 45 o F. In 50 years, summer<br />
temperatures are projected to range from roughly 43 o F to 54 o F. Despite higher annual precipitation, a<br />
generally drier summer environment is expected with dramatic effects on hydrology, wildlife <strong>and</strong> Arctic<br />
communities. Precipitation data is provided in Appendix A.<br />
Recommendation: <strong>Point</strong> Hope residents rely upon traditional knowledge to make decisions about where<br />
<strong>and</strong> when to harvest traditional foods. They also rely upon the weather data generated from the<br />
automated Federal Aviation Administration Station at the <strong>Point</strong> Hope airstrip, <strong>and</strong> observations from<br />
Kotzebue, Barrow, Fairbanks, <strong>and</strong> other locations. Weather changes will continue to present challenges<br />
to transportation, including subsistence activities, <strong>and</strong> air service to <strong>and</strong> from the community. The<br />
capacity to measure, interpret, <strong>and</strong> forecast weather conditions is critical for individual safety <strong>and</strong> for<br />
community health, but local automated data is limited, as is the archived weather data needed for<br />
substantiating local climate change.<br />
The National Weather Service is currently establishing regional <strong>Climate</strong> Reference Network (CRN)<br />
Stations across Alaska that will greatly exp<strong>and</strong> regional climate data. <strong>Point</strong> Hope is listed as one of the<br />
possible site locations. Hosting such a site would improve access to local weather <strong>and</strong> climate data.<br />
Additionally, the National Weather Service has local observer programs that can help to improve<br />
forecasting. Collaboration on a local observer program could provide a method of combining scientific<br />
measurements <strong>and</strong> traditional knowledge for improved forecasting <strong>and</strong> climate change measures.<br />
16
Figure 8 Graph by <strong>ANTHC</strong>. Source: National Weather Service, Weather Underground<br />
Figure 9<br />
Source: Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning<br />
17
Sea Level <strong>Change</strong><br />
Observed change: rise in sea level is resulting in increased erosion <strong>and</strong> increased risk of flooding.<br />
<strong>Health</strong> concerns: injury from extreme weather, anxiety over flood risk, damage to infrastructure.<br />
Projected future change: within 80‐90 years, a minimum sea level rise of .6 feet to 1.9 feet.<br />
Potential adaptation: flood study with climate predictions, flood protection to infrastructure.<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope is at risk for flooding from storm surge (a coastal flood that occurs when the sea is driven<br />
inl<strong>and</strong>) <strong>and</strong> from ice <strong>and</strong> gravel jams. Sea level rise will increase both the risk <strong>and</strong> the level of investment<br />
needed to protect the community. The elevation of <strong>Point</strong> Hope is only about ten feet above mean high<br />
water. The highest point in town is the school, which serves as the emergency shelter. The airport located<br />
near Old Town is especially susceptible to flooding, <strong>and</strong> the primary evacuation site is Beacon Hill<br />
(elevation 46 feet), located at the end of 7 Mile Road. In 2005, 2006 <strong>and</strong> 2008, strong winds created ice<br />
<strong>and</strong> gravel dams in the drainage of the Kukpuk River. In 2006, trapped water from Marryat Inlet flooded a<br />
section of 7 Mile Road <strong>and</strong> a channel was constructed to prevent flooding of the town. Subsequent erosion<br />
required a $433,000.00 restoration project to rebuild the road (USACE, 2009).<br />
When considering flood adaption, at‐risk communities have three options: 1) create protective barriers, 2)<br />
evacuate <strong>and</strong> rebuild, or 3) relocate. The City of <strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>and</strong> the North Slope Borough have been<br />
actively addressing flood risk for decades, <strong>and</strong> have employed all three of these options. For protective<br />
barriers, a 10‐foot gravel berm was constructed extending 8 to 10 miles along Nubugalak <strong>Point</strong>; the berm is<br />
repaired using heavy equipment each summer. Rebuilding due to flood damage is ongoing, there is<br />
currently a $2 million dollar improvement project underway on 7 Mile Road to raise the elevation, improve<br />
drainage, <strong>and</strong> reduce flood risk. The town was relocated two miles to the east in the early 1970s.<br />
The United Nations estimates that the minimum global sea level rise will be between .6 to 1.9 feet within<br />
80 to 90 years (IPCC, 2007). The USGS <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Science Program (Clark, P. et. al, 2008) found that<br />
the UN predictions were overly conservative. Globally, the greatest amount of sea level rise is projected to<br />
occur in the Arctic (Walsh, J, 2005a). The State of Alaska does not have an established sea level prediction.<br />
California is using a 4.6‐foot prediction for 100‐year planning purposes (Heberger et al., 2009). No<br />
published sea level change estimates were found for <strong>Point</strong> Hope. Yale University is developing 100‐year sea<br />
level maps to predict impacts for some coastal Northwest Arctic communities (Leiserowitz, T., 2009).<br />
A sea level rise projection map (one to three feet) was developed using Arc Map 9.3 GIS (Figure 10). A l<strong>and</strong><br />
satellite image was overlaid with USGS Digital Elevation Models (60 meter resolution); highlighting various<br />
potential ranges above mean sea level. At the 3.28‐foot level (1 meter) <strong>Point</strong> Hope is cut off from the<br />
mainl<strong>and</strong>; the airport, town site, egress road, <strong>and</strong> drinking water supply are all prone to damage from<br />
flooding. A storm surge map was also prepared for <strong>Point</strong> Hope. <strong>Point</strong> Hope is at “moderate” storm surge<br />
risk, meaning that flooding, six feet above the normal high tide surf level, is expected every three to five<br />
years (AK Emergency Management, 2007). The map (Figure 11), is based on a 4.2 meter surge, the 50‐year<br />
estimate developed for Kivalina, (USACE, 2006).<br />
Recommendation: Flood <strong>and</strong> storm surge projections should be developed for <strong>Point</strong> Hope using actual<br />
erosion rates <strong>and</strong> employing finer resolution sea level <strong>and</strong> elevation data. Prevention of injury <strong>and</strong> damage<br />
to infrastructure from storm surge depends upon forecasting <strong>and</strong> adequate time for preparation <strong>and</strong><br />
evacuation. Improved meteorological measurements may improve forecasting. Continued erosion <strong>and</strong><br />
flood prevention, <strong>and</strong> improved evacuation routes are important to help prevent injury <strong>and</strong> damage to<br />
infrastructure.<br />
18
Figure 10 (AOOS, 2009)<br />
Figure 11 (AOOS, 2009)<br />
19
Erosion<br />
Observed change: delayed shore ice, thawing permafrost, <strong>and</strong> storm activity resulting in rapid erosion.<br />
<strong>Health</strong> concerns: damage to critical infrastructure including airport, roads, <strong>and</strong> cold cellars; injury.<br />
Projected future change: increased rate of shore <strong>and</strong> river bank erosion, growing river navigation hazards.<br />
Potential adaptation: shore <strong>and</strong> river monitoring, erosion mitigation measures, injury prevention.<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope has, for some 2,500 years, provided a prime location for harvesting sea mammals <strong>and</strong> other<br />
subsistence resources. However, it is also an area that is extremely exposed to the coastal elements<br />
including ocean waves, coastal currents, <strong>and</strong> strong winds that sweep the <strong>Point</strong> Hope peninsula. The spit is<br />
continuously changing; building in some areas, eroding in others. Thawing permafrost <strong>and</strong> storm activity<br />
during ice‐free seasons is causing increased rates of erosion along the banks of the Kukpuk <strong>and</strong> other rivers<br />
<strong>and</strong> to beaches <strong>and</strong> beach ridges.<br />
There is limited information on the rate of erosion <strong>and</strong> no riverine erosion surveys have yet been performed.<br />
In 1972, the erosion rate on the north side of the spit was estimated at eight feet per year (USACE, 1972). It<br />
is likely that this rate has increased, <strong>and</strong> certain that episodic events, such as fall storms, can cause<br />
significantly greater rates of erosion. Storm‐related events have eroded up to 50 feet of shoreline in Kivalina,<br />
71 miles to the south. <strong>Point</strong> Hope has been classified as a “monitor conditions community”, meaning that<br />
significant erosion impacts are occurring, but are not likely to affect the viability of the community (USACE,<br />
2009). Although no structures or facilities at the new town site are considered to be at‐risk, other sites<br />
including the airstrip, Old Town, grave sites, <strong>and</strong> community food storage cellars are threatened by erosion.<br />
Additionally, navigability of Marryat Inlet, the Kukpuk River, <strong>and</strong> other important waterways are changing<br />
due to a combination of erosion, sedimentation, <strong>and</strong> reduced water levels. This diminishes access to<br />
subsistence areas, increases the risk of damage to equipment such as boats <strong>and</strong> outboard motors, <strong>and</strong> may<br />
increase the risk of accidental injury.<br />
In 1997, the North Slope Borough spent about two million dollars constructing a 275‐foot rock revetment<br />
east of the runway. This is helping to slow erosion in the coastal area. On the north beach, 10% of the old<br />
town site has been lost to erosion <strong>and</strong> only 50 to 60 traditional sod homes remain.<br />
Also at risk from flooding is a mass grave at the old town site from the early 1900s. The reason for the burial<br />
is uncertain, but there were several devastating epidemics in <strong>Point</strong> Hope between the 1860s <strong>and</strong> through<br />
the early 1900s. These include outbreaks of tuberculosis, small pox, measles <strong>and</strong> influenza. <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />
residents were particularly vulnerable because of the transient population of European whalers that worked<br />
from shore stations in the community. The mass grave may date back to the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918–<br />
1919. Influenza virus <strong>and</strong> other infectious agents have potential to be viable even after being frozen for<br />
many years. Whether any of the human remains in <strong>Point</strong> Hope could still be infectious is unknown.<br />
Recommendation: A comprehensive erosion assessment that identifies vulnerable infrastructure <strong>and</strong> habitat<br />
is recommended. Although coastal erosion mechanisms are well documented, new erosion problems, like<br />
those along area rivers, are emerging <strong>and</strong> threatening water quality, river navigation, <strong>and</strong> critical habitat.<br />
Erosion prevention measures can help protect coastal <strong>and</strong> river areas as well as critical infrastructure. <strong>Point</strong><br />
Hope may wish to explore opportunities with the National Weather Service to exp<strong>and</strong> coastal monitoring. In<br />
the event that burial sites are exposed from erosion, infection prevention measures should be considered<br />
prior to h<strong>and</strong>ling any human remains. Additionally, erosion is causing the loss of coastal cold storage cellars,<br />
as they are being gradually washed into the sea; of the 50 previously used, only about 20 still remain<br />
(USACE, 2009). The loss of these cellars raises concerns about storage of whale meat <strong>and</strong> overall community<br />
food security.<br />
20
Permafrost<br />
Observed change: warming soil temperature is thawing traditional food cellars.<br />
<strong>Health</strong> concern: reduced subsistence food supply <strong>and</strong> increased food borne illness.<br />
Projected future change: 20‐50+% increase in active (seasonal) thaw layer.<br />
Potential adaptation: baseline permafrost mapping, monitoring, <strong>and</strong> alternative cold storage methods.<br />
Permafrost temperatures have been rising throughout Alaska since the late 1970s (Lettenmaier et al.<br />
2008). The largest increases have occurred in the north, <strong>and</strong> it is projected that the top 30 feet of<br />
discontinuous permafrost will thaw in Alaska during this century (Parson, 2001). The Northwest Arctic is<br />
located in a transition zone between continuous <strong>and</strong> discontinuous permafrost that spans east‐west<br />
across this region roughly in line with the Kobuk River.<br />
Thawing of ice‐rich permafrost results in l<strong>and</strong> settlement (subsidence) with significant effects on<br />
ecosystems <strong>and</strong> infrastructure (USARC, 2003). Hundreds of sink holes (thermokarsts) have been<br />
observed in the Maniilaq Area <strong>and</strong> extensive erosion has been observed in coastal <strong>and</strong> river systems.<br />
Within 50 years, decreases of between 20% to 50% or more are expected in the active (seasonally<br />
freezing) permafrost layer. In the near term, thermokarsts conditions, including the rapid thaw of ice<br />
wedges along river banks <strong>and</strong> coastal areas, are expected to continue, resulting in erosion <strong>and</strong> changes<br />
to hydrology, vegetation, <strong>and</strong> wildlife (Martin et al., 2008).<br />
The city of <strong>Point</strong> Hope is located on a gravel spit, <strong>and</strong> a gravel pad foundation for the town site provides<br />
insulation to help preserve the underlying permafrost. There were no observed signs of permafrost<br />
thawing in the new town site: utility poles <strong>and</strong> fences are straight, <strong>and</strong> buildings appeared level. <strong>Point</strong><br />
Hope airstrip is permafrost vulnerable as are the roads (USARC, 2003). Residents are reporting impacts<br />
at subsistence camps where foundations are settling (Towksjhea, J., 2009). Soil temperatures are<br />
determined using sensors inserted into the ground with battery‐powered data loggers. Sensors are<br />
located in <strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>and</strong> are being monitored by local students in collaboration with the Geophysical<br />
Institute at UAF (Yoshikawa, K., 2009).<br />
Permafrost thawing is undermining food safety <strong>and</strong> security in <strong>Point</strong> Hope. Harvested whale is taken to<br />
underground ice cellars siġŀuaqs that have been passed down in whaling families for generations. Not<br />
only are siġŀuaqs being lost to coastal erosion, but they are also being compromised due to permafrost<br />
thaw. The cellars, made of whalebone <strong>and</strong> covered with tundra sod, have remained frozen year‐round<br />
until the last few years. The cellars are now typically thawed in the summer, sometimes filling with<br />
water, <strong>and</strong> resulting in meat <strong>and</strong> blubber that is unsafe. Thawing meat also attracts scavengers such as<br />
hungry polar bears, presenting new safety hazards. As a result, residents may be at‐risk for an increase<br />
in foodborne illness, as well as potential risk of injury or death. There is additionally an economic <strong>and</strong><br />
nutritional loss as meat that would otherwise be consumed is discarded.<br />
Recommendation: There are several possible approaches for improving food storage in <strong>Point</strong> Hope: 1)<br />
improve the environment (ventilation, drainage, temperature) at the current location, 2) establish new<br />
siġŀuaqs at a location with a better subsurface environment, <strong>and</strong> 3) develop an alternative method for<br />
food storage, such as community cold storage facilities. The status of these food storage cellars is<br />
described in greater detail in the <strong>ANTHC</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> Bulletin, <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>and</strong> Effects on<br />
Traditional Inupiaq Food Cellars (Brubaker et al., 2009a). Improved data on soil temperature <strong>and</strong><br />
permafrost conditions could help identify better locations for installation of new food storage cellars<br />
<strong>and</strong> identify other vulnerable infrastructure.<br />
21
Snow <strong>and</strong> Ice<br />
Observed change: delayed ice development <strong>and</strong> early thaw; thin ice, increased snow accumulation.<br />
<strong>Health</strong> concerns: injury, drowning, diminished diet, physical activity, <strong>and</strong> mental health.<br />
Projected future change: open sea routes, decline in ice‐dependent subsistence species.<br />
Potential adaptation: assess changing ice effects; increase Arctic climate adaptation dialogue.<br />
Changing snow <strong>and</strong> ice conditions are affecting transportation <strong>and</strong> subsistence activities, accelerating<br />
erosion, <strong>and</strong> threatening infrastructure in <strong>Point</strong> Hope. Potential health effects include injury or death<br />
from trauma, exposure, or drowning (e.g. falls through ice); damage to health infrastructure (e.g.<br />
increased snow loads <strong>and</strong> erosion damage to source water line); <strong>and</strong> mental <strong>and</strong> physical health<br />
problems related to disruption of subsistence lifestyles. Positive effects may include a longer season for<br />
open water subsistence harvesting <strong>and</strong> for drinking water collection <strong>and</strong> treatment.<br />
In <strong>Point</strong> Hope, ice has been forming later in the fall <strong>and</strong> breaking up earlier in the spring. From the<br />
1970s until 2006, the number of ice‐free days along the Chukchi Coast has increased by an average of 50<br />
to 95 days (Rodrigues, 2008 unpublished). This results in a shorter season for over‐ice transportation<br />
<strong>and</strong> ice‐based hunting <strong>and</strong> increased vulnerability to coastal erosion. Shore ice works as a coastal buffer,<br />
dissipating storm energy <strong>and</strong> protecting the shoreline from the force of wind <strong>and</strong> waves. If shore ice<br />
formation is delayed or diminished, storm‐related erosion can be expected to increase (Jones et al.,<br />
2009). Sea ice extent is monitored throughout the Arctic using satellite imagery. The decrease in<br />
summer sea ice has become more pronounced, especially in the Chukchi <strong>and</strong> Beaufort seas (Comiso,<br />
2002; Shimada et al. 2006). Continued sea ice retreat is projected, <strong>and</strong> in 50 years the Northwest<br />
Passage <strong>and</strong> Northern Sea Route may be ice‐free in summer (Walsh, J, 2005b).<br />
Receding <strong>and</strong> thinning sea ice is one of the most important indicators of change for the lives of Arctic<br />
indigenous people. During the past two decades, thick multi‐year ice has been replaced by thinner firstyear<br />
ice over large areas of the Western Arctic; Ice depth has decreased between 0.5 to 1 meter<br />
(Shirasawai et al., 2009). Snow cover influences the amount of ice that can be grown within a season,<br />
with more snow cover resulting in less ice. Future increases in precipitation <strong>and</strong> higher temperatures will<br />
therefore likely have additional influence on future sea ice conditions. Sea ice also influences plankton<br />
blooms, <strong>and</strong> is expected to facilitate major shifts of marine species.<br />
Whaling captains are concerned about ice changes <strong>and</strong> safety when working on the ice, as well as the<br />
implications for hunting success. Sea ice is used as a platform for hunting whale, seal, <strong>and</strong> walrus.<br />
Hunters recall typical ice thickness of 12 feet, as opposed to the approximate four feet typical today. On<br />
May 8, 2008, three <strong>Point</strong> Hope whaling crews were cast adrift when a huge slab of shore‐fast ice broke<br />
free (Arctic Sounder, 2008). The hunters were able to return to l<strong>and</strong> by boat, but their equipment had to<br />
be recovered by a rescue helicopter from Barrow. In addition to the safety concerns, ice depth has been<br />
related to decreased availability of walrus <strong>and</strong> delays in whale harvest. <strong>Point</strong> Hope hunters reported<br />
difficulty in finding ice thick enough for hauling‐out a whale. The single bowhead harvested in <strong>Point</strong><br />
Hope this spring had to be butchered in the water, a less efficient process.<br />
Recommendations: The emergency beacon program implemented by the North Slope Borough is a<br />
model for injury prevention, providing rescuers with immediate information about the location of<br />
individuals in peril. Increased cell phone access will also provide safety benefits. More research is<br />
needed on the implications of changing snow, ice, <strong>and</strong> weather conditions on infrastructure <strong>and</strong> health.<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope would benefit from participation in an exp<strong>and</strong>ed Arctic dialogue on sea ice changes <strong>and</strong><br />
adaptation.<br />
22
Figure 12<br />
Source: Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center<br />
Data taken from Weather Underground (wunderground.com)<br />
•Records only go back to December 1990, with only a few days missing in the records<br />
•No data on wind direction except in the daily archives (which means to compile this data you need to copy each day individually)<br />
Figure 13<br />
Source: Weather Underground Research<br />
23
Water <strong>and</strong> Sanitation<br />
Observed change: reduced drinking water source quality <strong>and</strong> quantity.<br />
<strong>Health</strong> concerns: water shortages, water availability, water quality, increased cost for treatment.<br />
Projected future change: fewer lakes, sea rise increases vulnerability to salt water intrusion.<br />
Potential adaptation: source water monitoring <strong>and</strong> assessment, emergency water shortage plan.<br />
Despite projections of increased precipitation, significantly more water will be leaving the Arctic<br />
l<strong>and</strong>scape in the future <strong>and</strong> most of Alaska is expected to become 10‐30% drier by the end of the<br />
century (O’Brien & Oya, 2009). In <strong>Point</strong> Hope, summer warming combined with decreased precipitation<br />
has caused tundra ponds to dry up, impacting water availability <strong>and</strong> quality. During the summers of<br />
2007 <strong>and</strong> 2008, water operators measured reduced quality in the raw water from the source lake. There<br />
was no evidence of change in the quality of water provided to residents, nor was there evidence of<br />
waterborne illness (Davenport, A., 2009). There was, however, a significant increase in operator labor.<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope acquires water from 7 Mile Lake, a small tundra lake that is recharged each year from snow<br />
melt <strong>and</strong> precipitation. There is a limited time frame when the lake is ice‐free, <strong>and</strong> when water can be<br />
pumped, treated, <strong>and</strong> transferred to above ground tanks for use throughout the year. From late June<br />
until early September, water is piped from the lake to the water treatment plant where it is filtered prior<br />
to chlorination. During this period, operators work around the clock to produce enough water (about<br />
eight million gallons) to last the whole year. As reported by <strong>Point</strong> Hope water operators, low<br />
precipitation <strong>and</strong> high temperatures during the summer of 2007 <strong>and</strong> 2008 contributed to source water<br />
quality problems. The water level in 7 Mile Lake was lower than normal <strong>and</strong> other tundra ponds located<br />
in the vicinity dried up completely. Raw water temperatures at the <strong>Point</strong> Hope treatment plant were<br />
between 50°F <strong>and</strong> 60°F, 10°F warmer then normal (Frankson, A., 2009).<br />
In their log books, operators reported increases in the amount of biologic slime collecting in the water<br />
treatment bag filters (Figure 14). Consequently, the number of filter changes increased dramatically, to<br />
the point where it was interrupting operations. Typically operators clean the bag filters about four times<br />
per day. In 2008, the number of changes at times rose to almost 50 times per day. On July 27, 2008, at<br />
the peak of the source water quality problem, <strong>Point</strong> Hope operators were spending approximately eight<br />
hours, or one‐third of each 24‐hour shift performing filter maintenance. The slime is suspected to be<br />
organic growth including insect larvae <strong>and</strong> algae. Scientists from UAA’s Environmental <strong>and</strong> Natural<br />
Resources Institute are coordinating with water operators in <strong>Point</strong> Hope to test water samples.<br />
Temperature is a limiting factor for algae growth <strong>and</strong> warm temperatures may have caused conditions<br />
to pass a tipping point, changing lake biology <strong>and</strong> encouraging rapid algae growth. Wind events stir lake<br />
water <strong>and</strong> can transport solids to the water system intake. July 2008 weather data (wind velocity <strong>and</strong> air<br />
temperatures) <strong>and</strong> filter change records provided supporting evidence of these influences, as illustrated<br />
in Figure 15 below.<br />
Recommendation: <strong>Point</strong> Hope is susceptible to hydrologic changes including water shortages influenced<br />
by alterations to annual precipitation <strong>and</strong> temperature. Thawing of permafrost may also contribute to<br />
increased organics into the lake water with a resultant change in water chemistry. Under a projected<br />
warming future, adaptation strategies will be needed to ensure efficient operation of the water system.<br />
Continued log recording <strong>and</strong> regular monitoring of the source water physical, chemical, <strong>and</strong> biological<br />
conditions is recommended. Additionally, a source water assessment would evaluate lake water<br />
conditions <strong>and</strong> quality. Sampling <strong>and</strong> analysis of the filter contents <strong>and</strong> lake water conditions would be<br />
part of this assessment (Brubaker et al., 2009b).<br />
24
Fig. 14<br />
Source: <strong>Point</strong> Hope Water Plant<br />
Figure 15<br />
Source: <strong>Point</strong> Hope Water Plant/ Weather Underground<br />
25
Food Safety <strong>and</strong> Security<br />
Observed change: warming is affecting harvest of fish <strong>and</strong> sea mammals; traditional cellars are thawing.<br />
<strong>Health</strong> concerns: changes in food quality <strong>and</strong> harvest may contribute to hunger, malnutrition, <strong>and</strong> disease.<br />
Projected future change: fewer ice dependent species, more invasive boreal species.<br />
Potential adaptation: assess community diet, food storage <strong>and</strong> food distribution, adaptive subsistence.<br />
Food safety refers to the practice of harvesting, preparing, <strong>and</strong> storing foods in ways that prevent foodborne<br />
illness. Food security means having nutritious foods <strong>and</strong> not having to live in hunger. In <strong>Point</strong> Hope, climate<br />
change is increasing exposure to unsafe foods <strong>and</strong> to food insecurity. The traditional subsistence lifestyle<br />
<strong>and</strong> diet provides protection against cardiovascular disease, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, stroke, obesity,<br />
osteoporosis, <strong>and</strong> some cancers. Traditional foods provide a wide range of essential micronutrients including<br />
iron <strong>and</strong> vitamins A, D, <strong>and</strong> E (Bersamin et al., 2007). The fruit <strong>and</strong> leaves of Arctic berries contain high levels<br />
of antioxidants (Thiem, 2003) <strong>and</strong> may help reduce incidence of obesity <strong>and</strong> type 2 diabetes. Northern fish<br />
<strong>and</strong> sea mammals are also high in omega‐3 fatty acids, an important anti‐inflammatory substance (Murphy<br />
et al., 1995).<br />
The percentage of wildlife harvested for subsistence in rural Alaska is about 60% fish, 20% marine mammals,<br />
14% l<strong>and</strong> mammals, 2% shellfish, 2% birds, <strong>and</strong> 2% wild plants (ADFG, 2000). There are substantial regional<br />
differences but harvest percentages have remained fairly consistent since the 1980s, although the amount<br />
harvested has decreased. A 2004 statewide dietary study documented an Alaska Native trend toward<br />
increased use of market foods (Ballew et al., 2004). Inupiat communities have the knowledge about a high<br />
number of food species (Kuhnlein et al., 2004) <strong>and</strong> <strong>Point</strong> Hope residents utilize a wide range of traditional<br />
foods in their diet including chum, pink <strong>and</strong> silver salmon, dolly Varden (trout), grayling, tom cod, beluga<br />
whale, bowhead whale, bearded <strong>and</strong> spotted seal, walrus, polar bear, caribou, moose, <strong>and</strong> various ducks,<br />
geese, other birds, berries <strong>and</strong> greens. Alaska Department of Fish <strong>and</strong> Game records indicate a daily wild<br />
food harvest of 1.4 pounds per person or 514 pounds per person, per year in <strong>Point</strong> Hope. <strong>Climate</strong> change is<br />
expected to dramatically alter the species that are available for harvest in the Arctic coastal plain <strong>and</strong> the<br />
coastal marine environment (Martin et al., 2008).<br />
As soil temperatures rise, the traditional cold storage cellars are less likely to prevent pathogens that cause<br />
foodborne illness from getting into traditionally stored foods. The most common types of foodborne<br />
illnesses in humans are caused by bacteria such as botulism, campylobacter, salmonella <strong>and</strong> e‐coli, <strong>and</strong><br />
viruses such as norovirus. Pregnant women, infants, the elderly, <strong>and</strong> those with weakened immune systems<br />
are at higher risk for severe infections. There were no reports of a change in the number of cases of foodrelated<br />
illnesses in <strong>Point</strong> Hope. However, health aides <strong>and</strong> other residents expressed concern about<br />
decreasing food quality, increasing spoilage, <strong>and</strong> the safety of stored whale meat <strong>and</strong> blubber. <strong>Health</strong> aides<br />
in <strong>Point</strong> Hope described a rise in cases of malnutrition <strong>and</strong> anemia, particularly in elders, <strong>and</strong> speculated<br />
that it may in part be related to availability of sea mammals (Davenport, A., 2009). Few walrus have been<br />
harvested in <strong>Point</strong> Hope since 2006 <strong>and</strong> whale harvests have been affected by ice conditions. Also, new<br />
species of salmon are being observed, contrasted by reduced harvest of other fish species like tom cod<br />
(Frankson, T., 2009) .<br />
Recommendation: A food survey would be beneficial to establish baseline conditions <strong>and</strong> food security<br />
issues, including analysis of adaptation strategies that could improve community food storage <strong>and</strong><br />
distribution. Continued research is needed on food security <strong>and</strong> safety including causes of resource decline<br />
<strong>and</strong> susceptibility to zoonotic (animal to human) diseases. <strong>Point</strong> Hope should work closely with researchers<br />
<strong>and</strong> wildlife managers to improve capacity for observation <strong>and</strong> monitoring of the Arctic Coastal Plain<br />
environment <strong>and</strong> its subsistence resources.<br />
26
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope is experiencing a broad range of climate change effects that are increasing vulnerability <strong>and</strong><br />
exposure to injury <strong>and</strong> disease, <strong>and</strong> damaging or disrupting critical infrastructure. Figure 16 summarizes<br />
current <strong>and</strong> potential future health impacts in <strong>Point</strong> Hope, characterized in terms of likelihood of<br />
occurrence <strong>and</strong> vulnerability. The table is intended to initiate discussion about adaptation planning <strong>and</strong><br />
response.<br />
Figure 16, <strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Health</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong> Likelihood/Vulnerability Table<br />
Likelihood of Occurrence<br />
Uncertain<br />
Beneficial<br />
Improved diet from new<br />
subsistence resources<br />
(e.g. improved salmon<br />
harvest).<br />
See pg 26, Food Safety.<br />
Improved mental health<br />
due to decreased<br />
environmental stressors<br />
(e.g. warm, sunny days).<br />
See pg. 13, Mental<br />
<strong>Health</strong>.<br />
Community Vulnerability to <strong>Health</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
Detrimental<br />
Less Vulnerable<br />
Injury or illness from extreme events<br />
(e.g. flood, storm‐surge).See pg. 11, Injury.<br />
Illness from consuming food stored in thawing<br />
ice cellar. See pg. 26, Food Safety.<br />
Increased exposure to heat /cold event injury<br />
(e.g. hypothermia or heat exhaustion)<br />
See pg. 11, Injury.<br />
Increased incidence of allergic reaction (e.g.<br />
plants, insects). See pg. 11, Injury.<br />
Increased or new infectious disease<br />
(e.g.. giardia). See pg. 12, Infectious Disease.<br />
Diminished health services from stressed public<br />
resources or damaged infrastructure<br />
(e.g.. operation of water system).<br />
See pg. 24, Water <strong>and</strong> Sanitation.<br />
Detrimental<br />
More Vulnerable<br />
Increased acute or chronic<br />
disease (e.g. infections from<br />
contaminant exposure).<br />
See pg. 12 <strong>Climate</strong> & Cancer.<br />
Increased acute or chronic<br />
disease from a less healthy diet.<br />
(e.g. substituting hot dogs for<br />
whale).<br />
See pg. 26, Food Safety.<br />
Likely<br />
Certain<br />
Shortened infectious<br />
disease season (e.g.<br />
cold/flu). See pg. 12.<br />
Improved aspects of<br />
health service.<br />
(e.g. extended season for<br />
water treatment).<br />
Increased respiratory infection<br />
(e.g.. water service interruption).<br />
See pg. 12. Infectious Disease.<br />
Injury from changes in physical environment<br />
(e.g. cold water exposure, falls through ice).<br />
See pg. 11, Injury.<br />
Impaired functioning of health infrastructure<br />
(e.g. decreased water availability/quality).<br />
See pg. 24, Water <strong>and</strong> Sanitation.<br />
Impaired mental health from<br />
environmental stressors<br />
(e.g. stress related to flood risk<br />
or changes in food availability).<br />
See pg. 13, Mental <strong>Health</strong>.<br />
Decreased food security<br />
(e.g. inadequate food storage).<br />
See pg. 26, Food Safety.<br />
Certain / Likely / Uncertain – indicates presence of (certain) or likelihood of effects to occur in the future.<br />
Beneficial ‐ indicates potential to benefit community health.<br />
Detrimental – indicates potential to harm community health.<br />
Less Vulnerable ‐ indicates that there is existing capacity to adapt <strong>and</strong> respond to the effect.<br />
More Vulnerable – indicates that there may not be adequate capacity to adapt <strong>and</strong> respond to the effect.<br />
27
Summary of <strong>Point</strong> Hope Observations <strong>and</strong> Findings<br />
1. Between 1949 <strong>and</strong> 2006, average annual temperatures in Kotzebue increased by about 3.2 o F.<br />
Annual temperatures are projected to continue rising in Kotzebue <strong>and</strong> in <strong>Point</strong> Hope, with the<br />
greatest increase occurring during winter months. In 50 years, it is projected that no winter months<br />
will have an average below 0 o F; but rather temperatures range from 5 o F to 30 o F.<br />
2. Average annual precipitation has increased in Kotzebue, <strong>and</strong> is projected to increase in <strong>Point</strong> Hope.<br />
Despite higher annual precipitation, a considerably drier summer environment is expected with<br />
dramatic effects to the physical, natural <strong>and</strong> human environment, including changes in subsistence<br />
diet, <strong>and</strong> decreased water availability for community use.<br />
3. <strong>Point</strong> Hope is at risk from floods during seasonal storm events. Sea level rise <strong>and</strong> coastal erosion is<br />
increasing this risk. Some climate models project that mean sea level will be above the level of the<br />
community within 50 to 100 years. However, soil from coastal erosion <strong>and</strong> from the banks of the<br />
Kukpuk <strong>and</strong> other rivers may change coastal dynamics <strong>and</strong> cause beach building in some areas.<br />
Increased flood risk can increase risk of injury <strong>and</strong> vulnerability to disease if critical infrastructure is<br />
damaged <strong>and</strong> services are disturbed.<br />
4. No structures or facilities at the new town site are currently considered to be at risk from erosion.<br />
However, outlying areas are at risk, including traditional food cellars, cultural sites, the air strip, <strong>and</strong><br />
7 Mile Road. Evacuation routes are vulnerable to erosion <strong>and</strong> flooding.<br />
5. During the past two decades, sea ice has been forming later in the fall <strong>and</strong> departing earlier in the<br />
spring. Thick multi‐year sea ice is being replaced by thinner first‐year ice. This results in a shorter<br />
season for over‐ice transportation <strong>and</strong> ice‐based hunting, as well as disruption of sea mammal<br />
harvest, <strong>and</strong> increased vulnerability to coastal erosion <strong>and</strong> ice‐related injury.<br />
6. Thawing permafrost is undermining food security by increasing the temperature in traditional cold<br />
cellars. Inadequate storage conditions are resulting in spoiled meat <strong>and</strong> blubber <strong>and</strong> are increasing<br />
the risk for foodborne illnesses.<br />
7. <strong>Health</strong> Aides describe a rise in cases of malnutrition <strong>and</strong> anemia, particularly in elders. This may be<br />
related to decreases in subsistence harvest <strong>and</strong> food security. Few walrus have been harvested since<br />
2006, <strong>and</strong> whale harvests have been affected by diminishing ice conditions.<br />
8. Low precipitation <strong>and</strong> high temperatures during the summer of 2007 <strong>and</strong> 2008 contributed to<br />
decreased water quality at 7 Mile Lake, the community water source. An increase in organic<br />
material in the raw water fouled filters <strong>and</strong> interrupted water making operations.<br />
9. Long‐term water availability for drinking <strong>and</strong> other uses is threatened by decreased precipitation,<br />
increased evaporation <strong>and</strong> transpiration, melting permafrost, groundwater recharge, <strong>and</strong> the<br />
potential for storm surge <strong>and</strong> salt water intrusion.<br />
28
Recommendations for <strong>Climate</strong> Adaptation Planning<br />
Local <strong>and</strong> regional government is challenged with preparing for climate‐related impacts, <strong>and</strong> the need to<br />
develop comprehensive adaptation plans. The following are 10 basic principals that are recommended<br />
for integrating climate change planning into local decision‐making. Other principals may be developed<br />
by the community as local residents engage in the planning process.<br />
1. Protection of human life <strong>and</strong> health is the top priority.<br />
2. Traditional values should guide local <strong>and</strong> regional decision making.<br />
3. Development should follow the principles of sustainability “meeting the needs of the present<br />
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED, 1987).<br />
4. Community Adaptation Plans should identify valued local resources, such as subsistence areas,<br />
cultural sites, critical water sources, <strong>and</strong> develop plans to protect them.<br />
5. Critical ecological systems, wetl<strong>and</strong>s, <strong>and</strong> subsistence resource areas should be protected where<br />
possible.<br />
6. Considerations for climate impacts on erosion, flooding, subsistence, water availability, <strong>and</strong><br />
transportation should be incorporated into planning, <strong>and</strong> new infrastructure siting <strong>and</strong> design.<br />
7. Cost‐benefit analyses should be applied to evaluate the social <strong>and</strong> environmental costs of building<br />
<strong>and</strong> maintaining coastal protection structures.<br />
8. Phased ab<strong>and</strong>onment of at‐risk areas should be considered.<br />
9. Coastal emergencies are inevitable <strong>and</strong> disaster response <strong>and</strong> recovery capacity, including<br />
evacuation routes, emergency response plans, drills, <strong>and</strong> shelters, should be reviewed.<br />
10. Building capacity to participate in monitoring, research, <strong>and</strong> advocacy is critical to facilitate<br />
development of effective adaptation strategies.<br />
Specific Recommendations for Adaptation to <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> in <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />
Adapting to a new climate <strong>and</strong> a changing environment will require significant investments of time,<br />
energy, <strong>and</strong> financial resources if community, social, <strong>and</strong> economic health is to be sustained. New<br />
outside sources of revenue will be needed, as well as the technical assistance of agencies <strong>and</strong><br />
institutions that have expertise in climate adaptation.<br />
Fortunately, the resources that can provide assistance to <strong>Point</strong> Hope are growing, <strong>and</strong> should continue<br />
to grow in the near future. Currently, the State of Alaska is completing a multi‐agency process to<br />
develop a climate change strategy that will help to guide statewide climate policy. Alaska will also be<br />
receiving a new federally funded <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Response Center that will be administered by the U.S<br />
Geologic Survey.<br />
29
In the North Slope Region there is extensive climate research capacity including the Global <strong>Climate</strong><br />
Research Center located in Barrow. The University of Alaska is also a global center for Arctic<br />
environment <strong>and</strong> climate research. These types of resources can assist Arctic communities as they<br />
interpret the climate changes of today, <strong>and</strong> begin to chart a course for the future.<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope will need to facilitate the adaptation process by increasing communication <strong>and</strong> cooperation<br />
with resource agencies, <strong>and</strong> by developing local capacity for monitoring <strong>and</strong> managing climate impacts.<br />
Specific actions could include:<br />
1. Developing collaborations for an integrated village‐based monitoring program that includes<br />
climate <strong>and</strong> environmental monitoring including observer programs for weather, erosion,<br />
wildlife, subsistence, permafrost, <strong>and</strong> water resources. Though the tasks are varied, much could<br />
be accomplished by a single local observer, <strong>and</strong> relevant programs are available through the<br />
National Weather Service (e.g. weather <strong>and</strong> coastlines), National Oceanographic <strong>and</strong><br />
Atmospheric Administration (e.g. marine str<strong>and</strong>ing, harmful algal blooms), U.S. Geological<br />
Survey (e.g. National Phenology Network), U.S. Fish <strong>and</strong> Wildlife (e.g. wildlife monitoring), <strong>and</strong><br />
through institutions such as University of Alaska Fairbanks (e.g. permafrost temperature<br />
measurement). Many of these community‐based monitoring programs are already ongoing<br />
throughout the Maniilaq Region.<br />
2. Sharing data with other village <strong>and</strong> regional monitoring programs, as many of the emerging<br />
threats, such as wildlife diseases, are shared throughout the region.<br />
3. A new <strong>Point</strong> Hope flood study could be undertaken that includes projections for sea level rise,<br />
coastal erosion, <strong>and</strong> flood prevention measures.<br />
4. Surveying changes along river systems (bank erosion, water conditions, navigability, <strong>and</strong> critical<br />
habitat) could also be systematically undertaken.<br />
5. Continuing flood prevention, emergency preparedness <strong>and</strong> evacuation planning efforts with the<br />
North Slope Borough should be ongoing. <strong>Point</strong> Hope is currently at risk from flooding, <strong>and</strong> the<br />
risk is rising due to extreme weather, erosion, <strong>and</strong> sea level.<br />
6. Community water shortage contingency plans should be revisited based on current flood<br />
studies. <strong>Climate</strong> models project increased vulnerability due to changes in water balance <strong>and</strong> salt<br />
water intrusion.<br />
7. Working with the North Slope Borough to explore exp<strong>and</strong>ed practices for monitoring source<br />
water conditions at 7 Mile Lake, including water level, temperature, pH, turbidity, <strong>and</strong> other<br />
measures of source water quality <strong>and</strong> quantity. Scientists from the University of Alaska have<br />
offered assistance in evaluating source water conditions, including biological analysis.<br />
8. Exploring options for improving food storage <strong>and</strong> assessing community‐wide food security. The<br />
Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> can provide assistance in exploring options for improving food<br />
storage.<br />
30
9. In the event of a wildlife die‐off, perform testing for contaminants <strong>and</strong> disease pathogens. The<br />
Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> <strong>and</strong> the Center for Disease Control can provide assistance in<br />
identifying resources for infectious disease surveillance.<br />
10. Incorporating climate‐related questions into health evaluations, including mental health. The<br />
Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong>, Maniilaq Association, <strong>and</strong> the North Slope Borough <strong>Health</strong><br />
Department can explore options for improving surveillance of climate related health effects.<br />
11. Increasing dialogue with other Arctic communities about strategies for climate adaptation.<br />
Through statewide venues such as the Alaska Forum on the Environment, <strong>and</strong> international<br />
forums such as the Inuit Circumpolar Conference <strong>and</strong> the Arctic Council’s Sustainable<br />
Development Working Group, <strong>Point</strong> Hope could engage <strong>and</strong> share in the broader Arctic climate<br />
adaptation efforts.<br />
12. Advocating for a regional climate change advisory group or developing a local advisory group.<br />
Planning for climate change will require a community‐wide approach, as different entities<br />
develop capacity to address impacts within their own professional sphere. A climate change<br />
advisory group could represent different stakeholders <strong>and</strong> provide guidance to interested<br />
support organizations.<br />
13. Establishing a community climate office to coordinate climate‐related activities <strong>and</strong> record local<br />
observations. A climate change coordinator could help facilitate discussion, advocate for needed<br />
resources, <strong>and</strong> increase observations <strong>and</strong> data collection. This person could also exp<strong>and</strong><br />
dialogue with other parts of Alaska <strong>and</strong> other Arctic regions experiencing similar climate<br />
impacts. The Environmental Protection Agency authorizes tribes that are funded by the Indian<br />
General Assistance Program (IGAP) to work on climate change activities, including hiring of staff<br />
that can focus on climate change adaptation.<br />
14. Establish a time‐line to revisit <strong>and</strong> update local climate projections. <strong>Climate</strong> models for weather<br />
(UAF’s Scenario Network for Alaska Planning), erosion (U.S. Army Corp of Engineers), sea level<br />
rise (State of Alaska, North Slope Borough), <strong>and</strong> flooding (Federal Emergency Management<br />
Agency) among others are updated regularly as new information becomes available <strong>and</strong> the<br />
climate models improve. Each agency can provide guidance for timing of updating projection<br />
data.<br />
This report raises awareness about current, emerging, <strong>and</strong> potential, future climate change affects in<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope. It is hoped that this will help citizens make informed planning decisions, within community<br />
appropriate development strategies to achieve a safe, healthy, <strong>and</strong> sustainable future for the people of<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope.<br />
For more information, contact the Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> by e‐mail, akaclimate@anthc.org or by<br />
phone (907) 729‐2464 or (907) 729‐4493.<br />
31
APPENDICIES<br />
Appendix A<br />
Additional Precipitation Data<br />
A1 Kotzebue – Mean Precipitation from 1971 to 2000 (Arctic <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center)<br />
A2 <strong>Point</strong> Hope – Projected Precipitation (Scenario Network for Alaska Planning)<br />
Appendix B<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope Participants & Collaborators<br />
Appendix C<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> Web Resources<br />
Appendix D<br />
· Photo 1: Shore ice conditions May, 2009 (M. Brubaker, 2009).<br />
· Photo 2: Snow accumulation May 1, 2009 (M. Brubaker, 2009).<br />
· Photo 3: Snow management (M. Brubaker, 2009).<br />
· Photo 4: Exterior, traditional cold storage siġŀuaqs (M. Brubaker, 2009).<br />
· Photo 5: Example of bank erosion, Wulik River near Kivalina (M. Brubaker 2009)<br />
· Photo 6: Water Operator, Andrew Frankson <strong>and</strong> filter bank (M. Brubaker, 2009)<br />
32
APPENDIX A<br />
Inches<br />
Fig. A1<br />
Source: Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center<br />
Fig. A2<br />
Source: Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning<br />
33
APPENDIX B<br />
Community Contributors – <strong>Point</strong> Hope, Alaska<br />
Name Title/Status Organization Interview Date<br />
Canyon, Caroline Representative Maniilaq Board of Directors 04‐07‐09<br />
Davenport, Amy Session II <strong>Health</strong> Aide <strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Health</strong> Clinic 04‐30‐09<br />
Dirks, Michael Assistant Operator <strong>Point</strong> Hope Water Plant 04‐30‐09<br />
Dowdy, Liz Assistant Principal Tikigaq School 04‐30‐09<br />
Frankson, Andrew Chief Operator <strong>Point</strong> Hope Water Plant 04‐30‐09<br />
Frankson, Teddy Wildlife <strong>and</strong> Parks Director Native Village of <strong>Point</strong> Hope 08‐13‐09<br />
Hunnicutt, Eldon Assistant Operator <strong>Point</strong> Hope Water Plant 04‐30‐09<br />
Hunnicutt, Willard Fire Chief <strong>Point</strong> Hope Fire Dept 04‐30‐09<br />
Koenig, Midas Assistant Fire Chief <strong>Point</strong> Hope Fire Dept. 04‐30‐09<br />
Koonook, Angie Whaling Captain’s Wife <strong>Point</strong> Hope 05‐03‐09<br />
Koonook Sr., Luke Whaling Captain Retired <strong>Point</strong> Hope 05‐02‐09<br />
Koonuk Sr., Ray Program Administrator Native Village <strong>Point</strong> Hope 04‐29‐09<br />
McCarthy, Toren Counselor Tikigaq School 05‐04‐09<br />
Mitchell, Florence Session IV <strong>Health</strong> Aide Maniilaq Association 04‐30‐09<br />
Oomittuk, Steve Mayor City of <strong>Point</strong> Hope 04‐30‐09<br />
Oktolik, Iris Environmental Coordinator Native Village <strong>Point</strong> Hope 04‐29‐09<br />
Oviok, Reggie Assistant Operator <strong>Point</strong> Hope Water Plant 04‐30‐09<br />
Schmidt, Kurt Science Teacher Tikigaq School 05‐03‐09<br />
Sharp, Scott Police Officer <strong>Point</strong> Hope Police Dept 05‐04‐09<br />
Stone, Kimberly Village Services Supervisor North Slope Borough 05‐04‐09<br />
Towksjhea, Joe Whaling Captain Retired 05‐01‐09<br />
Tuzroyluke, Lily Executive Director Native Village <strong>Point</strong> Hope 04‐29‐09<br />
Victor, Lloyd Artist <strong>Point</strong> Hope 05‐04‐09<br />
34
APPENDIX C<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> Resources<br />
Topic Resource Location<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope Profile State of Alaska Community Database http://www.commerce.state.ak.us/dca/co<br />
mmdb/CF_BLOCK.htm<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Climate</strong> Data Archive 1991‐present (temp/precipitation) http://paot.arh.noaa.gov/<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Climate</strong> Data Archive 1924‐1954 (temp/precipitation) www.wunderground.com<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope Erosion Data USACE Community Erosion Report, 2009 www.poa.usace.army.mil/AKE/Home.html<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope Permafrost UAF Permafrost Laboratory www.gi.alaska.edu/snowice/Permafrostlab/<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope Flood Data USACE Flood Hazard Database http://www.poa.usace.army.mil/en/cw/fld<br />
_haz/point_hope.htm<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope Temperature Alaska Center for <strong>Climate</strong> Assessment & www.uaf.edu/accap/<br />
Precipitation Projections Policy<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
<strong>Health</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong> Reports<br />
<strong>ANTHC</strong>, Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong>‐ www.anthc.org/chs/ces/climate/links.cfm<br />
<strong>Point</strong> Hope Capital<br />
Improvements<br />
Regional <strong>Climate</strong> Data<br />
Regional <strong>Climate</strong> Data<br />
Roads, erosion prevention, flood<br />
prevention, etc.<br />
North Slope Borough Public Works Dept.<br />
Temperature <strong>and</strong> Precipitation Data,<br />
Kotzebue 1930s‐present<br />
Center for Global <strong>Change</strong> <strong>and</strong> Arctic<br />
System Research (UAF)<br />
http://www.co.northslope.ak.us/departments/publicworks/cip<br />
m.php<br />
climate.gi.alaska.edu/<br />
www.cgc.uaf.edu/<br />
Regional <strong>Climate</strong> Data Global <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center (Barrow) www.arcticscience.org/<br />
Regional <strong>Climate</strong> Data Google Earth climate impact layers earth.google.com/intl/en/index.html<br />
Regional Weather Data Extreme Weather Watches, Warnings www.arh.noaa.gov/<br />
Advisories, National Weather Service<br />
Regional River Flood Data Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service<br />
National Weather Service<br />
http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.ph<br />
p?wfo=pafg3<br />
Regional <strong>Health</strong> Data Maniilaq Association, Kotzebue www.maniilaq.org/<br />
Regional <strong>Health</strong> Profile Alaska Native Tribal <strong>Health</strong> Consortium<br />
EpiCenter<br />
www.anthc.org/chs/epicenter/upload/Reg<br />
ional_<strong>Health</strong>_Profile_Maniilaq_0408.pdf<br />
Federal <strong>Climate</strong> Response Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Response Center http://alaska.usgs.gov/<br />
State <strong>Climate</strong> Response State of Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Strategy www.climatechange.alaska.gov/<br />
Community Based<br />
Monitoring ‐ Weather<br />
Community Based<br />
Monitoring ‐ Diet<br />
Community Based<br />
Monitoring – Seasonality<br />
Community Based<br />
Monitoring – Wildlife<br />
National Weather Service<br />
Weather/Coastline Observer Program<br />
Nutritional <strong>and</strong> Food Security Baseline<br />
Survey<br />
U.S. Geological Survey‐National Phenology<br />
Network<br />
National Oceanographic <strong>and</strong> Atmospheric<br />
Administration – Marine Str<strong>and</strong>ing<br />
www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/index.htm<br />
www.anthc.org/chs/epicenter/upload/<br />
traditional_diet.pdf<br />
www.usanpn.org/<br />
www.fakr.noaa.gov/protectedresources/st<br />
r<strong>and</strong>ings.htm<br />
35
APPENDIX D Photographs<br />
Photo 1: Shore ice conditions, May, 2009 (M. Brubaker, 2009)<br />
Photo 2: Snow accumulation May 1, 2009. (M. Brubaker, 2009)<br />
36
Photo 3: Extreme snow management (M. Brubaker, 2009)<br />
Photo 4: Exterior of thawing traditional cold storage “siġŀuaqs” (M. Brubaker, 2009)<br />
37
Photo 5: Example of river bank erosion, Wulik River near Kivalina (M. Brubaker 2009)<br />
Photo 6: Water Operator Andrew Frankson <strong>and</strong> filter bank (M. Brubaker, 2009)<br />
38
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We gratefully acknowledge the assistance provide by these organizations:<br />
The City of <strong>Point</strong> Hope, the Native Village of <strong>Point</strong> Hope, the Tikigaq Corporation, the Maniilaq Association,<br />
the Northwest Arctic Borough, the North Slope Borough, the Alaska Center for <strong>Climate</strong> Assessment <strong>and</strong><br />
Policy, the Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center, the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning, the University of<br />
Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, the University of Alaska Anchorage Environment <strong>and</strong> Natural<br />
Resources Institute, the National Weather Service, the National Oceanographic <strong>and</strong> Atmospheric<br />
Administration, the United States Geologic Survey, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the U.S. Centers for<br />
Disease Control Arctic Investigations Program, the Alaska Ocean Observing System, Yale University School of<br />
Forestry, the Kasitsna Bay Laboratory, the State of Alaska Department of Community Commerce <strong>and</strong><br />
Economic Development, the State of Alaska Department of Fish <strong>and</strong> Game, the Cold <strong>Climate</strong> Housing<br />
Research Center, <strong>and</strong> the State of Alaska Division of Homel<strong>and</strong> Security <strong>and</strong> Emergency Management.<br />
For more information please contact:<br />
Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong><br />
Alaska Native Tribal <strong>Health</strong> Consortium<br />
(907) 729‐2464<br />
Find this report <strong>and</strong> other information about climate <strong>and</strong> health at our website:<br />
http://www.anthc.org/chs/ces/climate/index.cfm<br />
Cite as: Brubaker, M., Berner, J., Bell, J., Warren, J., Rolin, A., <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong>, <strong>Point</strong><br />
Hope, Alaska. <strong>ANTHC</strong>,2009. http://www.anthc.org/chs/ces/climate/cchbulletins.cfm<br />
Funded by United States Indian <strong>Health</strong> Service Cooperative Agreement No. AN 08‐X59<br />
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