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Safe, <strong>Health</strong>y, Sustainable Communities<br />

Summary<br />

Introduction<br />

Limitations<br />

Method<br />

Community Profile<br />

Observations <strong>and</strong> Findings<br />

· Weather<br />

· Sea Level<br />

· Erosion<br />

· Permafrost<br />

· Water <strong>and</strong> Sanitation<br />

· Food Safety <strong>and</strong> Security<br />

· Plants <strong>and</strong> Wildlife<br />

Discussion <strong>and</strong> Recommendations<br />

Figures<br />

1. Community Map of <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />

2. Topographical Map of <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />

TABLE OF CONTENTS<br />

3. Temperature trends <strong>and</strong> projections – Kotzebue, Alaska (Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center ACRC)<br />

4. Precipitation trends <strong>and</strong> projections – Kotzebue, Alaska (ACRC)<br />

5. Temperature Projections – <strong>Point</strong> Hope (SNAP)<br />

6. Precipitation Projections – <strong>Point</strong> Hope (SNAP)<br />

7. Sea Level Rise Projections (50 Year)<br />

8. Storm Surge Projections<br />

References<br />

Appendices<br />

A. <strong>Point</strong> Hope Participants<br />

<strong>Draft</strong> <strong>Final</strong><br />

<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope, Alaska<br />

Prepared for:<br />

Native Village of <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />

City of <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />

Maniilaq Association<br />

North Slope Borough<br />

Northwest Arctic Borough<br />

Prepared by:<br />

Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong><br />

Alaska Native Tribal <strong>Health</strong> Consortium<br />

October 2009<br />

B. <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> Measure for Rural Alaska (CAHMRA) – <strong>Point</strong> Hope


Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong><br />

22<br />

Special thanks to the many people who assisted this project:<br />

Annabelle Alvite, David Atkinson, Lillian Alyssa, Lee Anne Ayers, Susan Beck, Matthew Bergen,<br />

Melissa Boney, Carl Borash, Gordon Brower, Jill Brubaker, Caroline Cannon, John Chase, David Christie,<br />

Louie Commack, Sally Cox, Ben Crosby, Amy Davenport, Michelle Davis, Jeffrey Demain, Heather<br />

Dingman, Michael Dirks, Liz Dowd, David Driscoll, Doug Drum, Darcy Dugan, Laura Eichelberger,<br />

Hajo Eicken, Ian Ehrlich, Jim Evak, Courtney Flint, Andrew Frankson, Teddy Frankson, Connie Fredenberg,<br />

Charlie Gregg, Yuri Gorokhovich, Kyla Hagen, Clark Hanfield, Millie Hawley, Stan Hawley, Jack H’ebert,<br />

Tom Hennessey, Grant Hildreth, Helena Hildreth, Jackie Hill, Larry Hinzman, Amy Holman,<br />

Eldon Hunnicutt, Willard Hunnicutt, Irving Igtanloc, Troy Izatt, Anore Jones, David Kang, Andy Kliskey,<br />

Angie Koonook, Ray Koonuk Sr., Mida Koenig, Danny Lane, Rachael Lee, Anthony Leiserowitz, Cindy<br />

Lincoln, John Lingaas, Harry Lind, Eva Long, James Magdanz, Ingemar Mathiasson, Molly McCammon,<br />

Jim Magdanz, Tina Moran, Steve Oomittuk, Tom Okleasik, Iris Oktolik, Bessie O’Rourke, Reggie Ovick,<br />

Toren MaCarthy, Florence Mitchell, Alan Parkinson, Sverre Pedersen, Jackie Poston, Dan Rinella,<br />

Stephanie Rolin, Bruce Richmond, Barrett Ristroph, Vladamir Romanovski, Scott Rupp, Cheryl Rosa, Bob<br />

Schaffer, Bruce Sexauer, Mark Shasby, Martha Shulski, Robbin Garber‐Slaght, Hazel Smith, Fred<br />

Sorensen, Ellen Sovalik, Kimberly Stone, Scott Sharp, Kurt Schmidt, Stanley Tomaszewski, Joe Towksjhea,<br />

Sarah Trainer, Lily Tuzroyluke, Cathy Villa, Hiram Walker, John Walsh, Jeff Welker, Dan White,<br />

Siikauraq "Martha" Whiting, Lloyd Victor, <strong>and</strong> Kenji Yoshikawa.<br />

<strong>ANTHC</strong> Advisors:<br />

Tim Gilbert MPH, Jeff Smith MS, Mike Bradley DVM MPH, Kathy Graves PhD, Steve Weaver PE,<br />

Gary Ferguson ND, Jennifer Johnson MPH, Desirae Roehl, Troy Ritter MPH, Aaron Wernham, MD MPH<br />

Report prepared by:<br />

Michael Brubaker, MS (Lead Author)<br />

James Berner, MD<br />

Jacob Bell, MS<br />

John Warren, PE<br />

Alicia Rolin


Safe, <strong>Health</strong>y, Sustainable Communities<br />

TABLE OF CONTENTS<br />

Summary 2<br />

Preface 3<br />

Introduction 3<br />

Limitations 6<br />

Method 6<br />

Community Profile 7<br />

General <strong>Health</strong> Status 8<br />

<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>and</strong> Patterns of Illness 10<br />

Observations <strong>and</strong> Findings 13<br />

· Temperature <strong>and</strong> Precipitation 14<br />

· Sea Level <strong>Change</strong> 18<br />

· Erosion 20<br />

· Permafrost 21<br />

· Snow <strong>and</strong> Ice 22<br />

· Water <strong>and</strong> Sanitation 24<br />

· Food Safety <strong>and</strong> Security 26<br />

Recommendations <strong>and</strong> Conclusions 27<br />

Figures<br />

1. Map of Maniilaq Service Area 4<br />

2. Map of <strong>Point</strong> Hope Area 5<br />

3. Aerial Photograph of <strong>Point</strong> Hope Community 9<br />

4. Leading Causes of Death, Age Adjusted Mortality Rate per 100,000 (1993‐2003) 10<br />

5. Top 15 Hospital Discharges by ICD Code, All Ages, FY 2005 11<br />

6. Kotzebue Average Temperature (°F) 15<br />

7. Kotzebue Total Annual Precipitation (inches) 15<br />

8. Mean Monthly Temperature, <strong>Point</strong> Hope, Alaska 17<br />

9. Projected Temperature, <strong>Point</strong> Hope, Alaska 17<br />

10. Potentially Submerged Areas Due to Sea Level Rise at Pt. Hope 19<br />

11. Potentially Submerged Areas Due to Storm Surge at Pt. Hope 19<br />

12. Mean Monthly Snow Depth for the Period 1971‐2000 23<br />

13. Mean Monthly Wind Speeds for the Period 1990‐2009 23<br />

14. Filter <strong>Change</strong>s/Day – July 2007 <strong>and</strong> July 2008 25<br />

15. Daily Mean Air Temperature <strong>and</strong> Wind Velocity for July 2008 25<br />

16. <strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Health</strong> Impact Severity/Vulnerability Table 28<br />

Appendices 32<br />

A Archived (1971– 2000) <strong>and</strong> Projected Precipitation Data 33<br />

B <strong>Point</strong> Hope Participants/Project Collaborators 34<br />

C <strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> Web Resources 35<br />

D Photos 36<br />

References 38


SUMMARY<br />

In the community of <strong>Point</strong> Hope, subsistence resources, food security, drinking water quality, <strong>and</strong><br />

infrastructure are vulnerable to impacts from climate change. There is limited scientific information to<br />

show relationships between climate effects <strong>and</strong> health outcomes. However, local observations <strong>and</strong><br />

community records indicate that climate change is increasing the risk of injury <strong>and</strong> disease, <strong>and</strong> the risk<br />

of disruption or damage to health infrastructure. Additionally, climate change is placing stress on<br />

municipal resources <strong>and</strong> adding to the cost of water treatment, beach protection, <strong>and</strong> road<br />

maintenance.<br />

Weather archive data from the 1930s show a gradual increase in mean annual temperature <strong>and</strong><br />

precipitation in <strong>Point</strong> Hope. By 2061 to 2070, climate models suggest that average July temperatures will<br />

have increased by approximately 2 o F, <strong>and</strong> December temperatures by 22 o F. Since 1991, average winter<br />

temperatures (January through March) have been below 0 o F, but in 50 years, monthly average<br />

temperatures may not drop below 0 o F, but rather could range between 5 o F <strong>and</strong> 30 o F. Increases in<br />

precipitation are projected for every month except June, as is a drier summer with broad ranging<br />

changes to wildlife, vegetation, <strong>and</strong> water availability.<br />

The rate of shoreline erosion is increasing due to changes in timing of ocean freezing <strong>and</strong> thawing,<br />

delays in the development of shore‐fast ice, <strong>and</strong> increases in the intensity of storms. Flooding has been<br />

prevented through village relocation <strong>and</strong> sea wall construction. Despite these efforts, <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />

continues to be vulnerable to storm surges <strong>and</strong> ice jams, with both the air strip <strong>and</strong> overl<strong>and</strong> evacuation<br />

route at risk. It is projected that mean sea level could cover much of the <strong>Point</strong> Hope Peninsula within 50<br />

to 100 years.<br />

<strong>Change</strong>s in weather <strong>and</strong> ice conditions are causing delays to subsistence activities, including the timing<br />

of spring whale <strong>and</strong> walrus hunts. Ice conditions have been inadequate in recent years to provide haulout<br />

platforms for walrus, or for hunters to clean bowhead whales. Shore ice has become unstable,<br />

putting hunters at greater risk for injury. In the spring of 2008, shore‐fast ice broke free, casting <strong>Point</strong><br />

Hope whaling crews <strong>and</strong> camps adrift, <strong>and</strong> requiring a helicopter rescue from Barrow. Hunters are also<br />

observing changes in wildlife. Hungry polar bears have begun to frequent <strong>Point</strong> Hope, becoming a<br />

nuisance <strong>and</strong> a public safety concern. Warm summer temperatures are providing opportunities for<br />

invasive species to become established <strong>and</strong> in some instances to interfere with subsistence activities.<br />

Ravens <strong>and</strong> gull populations are increasing <strong>and</strong> interfering with summer fish camp activities. Beaver are<br />

changing the river system <strong>and</strong> increasing the risk of waterborne disease. New fish species such as king<br />

salmon are being harvested, providing a positive new subsistence opportunity.<br />

Two issues were identified that are of special public health concern: food security <strong>and</strong> water quality.<br />

First, the permafrost that cools traditional underground food storage cellars is thawing, <strong>and</strong> there are<br />

currently no community alternatives for storage of whale meat <strong>and</strong> blubber. Secondly, warming is<br />

contributing to changes in 7 Mile Lake, the community drinking water source. Temperature influenced<br />

blooms of organic material have clogged water filters, adversely affecting water treatment.<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope would benefit from increased participation in weather, coastal zone <strong>and</strong> wildlife observation<br />

<strong>and</strong> monitoring programs, exp<strong>and</strong>ed collaborations with researchers, <strong>and</strong> increased local capacity for<br />

climate change coordination <strong>and</strong> management. Through such efforts, informed decision‐making can<br />

occur within local government to address vulnerabilities, <strong>and</strong> to adapt to climate change impacts.<br />

2


PREFACE<br />

In May 2006, the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions at Columbia University hosted a<br />

workshop in Kotzebue with the purpose of identifying climate change impacts, key vulnerabilities, <strong>and</strong><br />

adaptation options (Gregory et al., 2006). In November 2007, a second workshop, hosted by the Alaska<br />

Center for <strong>Climate</strong> Assessment <strong>and</strong> Policy was held in Kotzebue to report on climate research activities<br />

<strong>and</strong> explore further research needs <strong>and</strong> opportunities (Trainor, 2007). In both meetings, concerns were<br />

raised about the safety <strong>and</strong> security of food <strong>and</strong> water resources, community vulnerability to changes<br />

occurring on the l<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> sea, <strong>and</strong> the affects of climate change on public health.<br />

Participants called for more community‐based research <strong>and</strong> development of processes to assess local<br />

climate impacts. This paper reports on the findings from one community <strong>and</strong> demonstrates a process for<br />

evaluating local climate impacts on health. What occurred in the past is reported based on the record,<br />

<strong>and</strong> the recollection of <strong>Point</strong> Hope residents. What will happen in the future is unknown, <strong>and</strong> the reader<br />

is reminded that all predictions included in this report are subject to inherent uncertainty, <strong>and</strong> limited by<br />

the quality of data <strong>and</strong> the state of the science in this developing field of health impact assessment.<br />

INTRODUCTION<br />

<strong>Climate</strong> change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a<br />

result of human activity (IPCC, 2008). <strong>Climate</strong> is changing rapidly in the Northwest Arctic <strong>and</strong> leadership<br />

organizations seek better information about impacts <strong>and</strong> vulnerabilities, so that adaptive measures can<br />

be developed. This includes new approaches for developing health infrastructure <strong>and</strong> providing health<br />

services <strong>and</strong> health care. The twelve Northwest Arctic communities receive health services from<br />

Maniilaq Association, the regional tribal health consortium for the Northwest Arctic (Figure 1).<br />

The community of <strong>Point</strong> Hope is located at the western most point on the northwest Alaska coast<br />

(Figure 2). Life in <strong>Point</strong> Hope revolves around the harvest of sea mammals: walrus, seal, <strong>and</strong>, most<br />

importantly, whale. In 2009, many things are the same as they have been for thous<strong>and</strong>s of years;<br />

whaling crews <strong>and</strong> their families spend months preparing for the spring hunt, repairing skin boats <strong>and</strong><br />

wooden sleds, mending clothing <strong>and</strong> tents, sharpening harpoons, <strong>and</strong> preparing underground food<br />

cellars for storage of meat <strong>and</strong> blubber. But whaling, like other aspects of life in <strong>Point</strong> Hope, is changing.<br />

In almost every month the air temperature is warmer. Sea ice is diminishing, making travel <strong>and</strong> hunting<br />

more difficult <strong>and</strong> dangerous. New species of plants, fish, birds, <strong>and</strong> other wildlife are becoming<br />

increasingly common, while endemic species such as walrus are becoming increasingly rare. L<strong>and</strong> is<br />

thawing, washing away into the rivers or disappearing in great chunks into the Chukchi Sea. Warming<br />

water is causing blooms of algae in tundra ponds, changing the ecology <strong>and</strong> diminishing drinking water<br />

quality.<br />

These changes are influencing food <strong>and</strong> water security <strong>and</strong> the potential for disease <strong>and</strong> injury. They are<br />

also raising new concerns about the effects of life‐altering change on the mental health of Arctic people.<br />

Many effects are negative, but some can be positive: new food resources, a shorter flu season,<br />

economic opportunity, <strong>and</strong> a lengthened season for making potable water. This project has recorded<br />

local observations, described climate relationships (where possible), <strong>and</strong> explored potential community<br />

health implications. It is hoped that this work will help facilitate informed decision‐making, <strong>and</strong> the<br />

development of adaptive measures that will encourage a safe, healthy, <strong>and</strong> sustainable future for the<br />

people of <strong>Point</strong> Hope.<br />

3


4<br />

Figure 1 Map of Maniilaq Service Area (<strong>ANTHC</strong>, 2008).


Figure 2 Map of <strong>Point</strong> Hope (Tikigaq Corporation, 2009)<br />

5


LIMITATIONS<br />

This report documents observed climate‐related change in one community <strong>and</strong> evaluates potential<br />

effects on health. Although there is good regional climate <strong>and</strong> general health data for the Maniilaq Area,<br />

local data is limited. Weather archives are incomplete, coastal erosion rates are outdated, permafrost<br />

measures are unavailable, <strong>and</strong> estimates of sea level change have not been performed.<br />

Local data was used when available, but the assessment was limited both by the data gaps <strong>and</strong> by the<br />

limitations of down scaling from regional sources. The value of health indicators, such as incidence of<br />

heart disease or pneumonia, is difficult to gauge at the community level because small populations limit<br />

the statistical reliability.<br />

Anecdotal data was collected on the observations <strong>and</strong> experience from local experts in health, wildlife,<br />

whaling, Inupiat culture, weather, subsistence, education, sanitation, local governance, law<br />

enforcement, <strong>and</strong> emergency services (Appendix B). Predictions <strong>and</strong> projections on future conditions<br />

such as warming, flooding, <strong>and</strong> erosion are based on available information, <strong>and</strong> limited by the quality of<br />

current scientific data <strong>and</strong> the uncertainties inherent in climate models.<br />

To properly address any public health issue, there is a need for awareness of the problem <strong>and</strong> its<br />

importance, an underst<strong>and</strong>ing of health determinants, <strong>and</strong> knowledge of the appropriate leadership<br />

sector <strong>and</strong> their capacity to respond (Ebi et al., 2005). The two categories of public health response to<br />

climate change are mitigation <strong>and</strong> adaptation. Mitigation involves limiting ‘exposure’ to risk, such as by<br />

restricting green house gas emissions, or enhancing carbon sink processes (Fussel et al., 2006).<br />

Adaptation to climate change involves a response by humans or natural systems to actual or expected<br />

climatic effects, in order to minimize harm <strong>and</strong> to maximize benefits (IPCC, 2008). Present day mitigation<br />

efforts can limit future impacts, but cannot eliminate the need for adaptation (Parry et al., 2008). This<br />

report focuses on local health impact adaptation; potential mitigation activities are not addressed.<br />

METHOD<br />

The assessment was initiated based on requests from statewide tribal health representatives, <strong>and</strong> from<br />

local <strong>and</strong> regional leadership. Supporting resolutions were provided by the Maniilaq Association, the<br />

Northwest Arctic Borough, <strong>and</strong> the North Slope Borough. Invitations to work in <strong>Point</strong> Hope were<br />

provided by City of <strong>Point</strong> Hope Mayor Steve Oomittuk, <strong>and</strong> Native Village of <strong>Point</strong> Hope President, Lily<br />

Tuzroyluke.<br />

Information about local climate, environment, <strong>and</strong> health conditions was collected from local <strong>and</strong><br />

regional tribal organizations, regional <strong>and</strong> local governments, academic institutions, <strong>and</strong> state <strong>and</strong><br />

federal agencies. Educational outreach has included a Northwest Arctic <strong>Climate</strong> Teleconference series to<br />

raise awareness about climate change in the region.<br />

From April 29 to May 4, 2009, a site visit was performed by Michael Brubaker of <strong>ANTHC</strong>. Interviews were<br />

performed with whaling captains, representatives from the city, tribal council, borough, health clinic,<br />

fire department, police department, water <strong>and</strong> waste water utility, public works, <strong>and</strong> the school<br />

(Appendix B). A priority was placed on interviewing representatives from organizations that provide<br />

services or have important insight into community health. Interviews were performed with elders <strong>and</strong><br />

6


youths <strong>and</strong> presentations were made to junior high, high school, <strong>and</strong> elementary level students at the<br />

Tikigaq School. Photographs <strong>and</strong> video of local conditions were recorded where possible.<br />

Information from interviews was collected <strong>and</strong> recorded in the <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> Measure (CAHM), a<br />

survey tool used to organize local observations, <strong>and</strong> record potential health effects, data gaps <strong>and</strong><br />

adaptation measures. Local <strong>and</strong> regional partners reviewed the CAHM <strong>and</strong> provided comments on the<br />

draft report.<br />

Findings were presented to partner organizations in <strong>Point</strong> Hope, Kotzebue, <strong>and</strong> Barrow, <strong>and</strong> efforts are<br />

on‐going to connect local <strong>and</strong> regional leadership with climate change experts <strong>and</strong> to identify resources<br />

that will encourage implementation of community appropriate adaptation measures.<br />

COMMUNITY PROFILE<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope is located 330 miles southwest of Barrow <strong>and</strong> 180 miles north of Kotzebue (Alaska Division<br />

of Community Advocacy, 2009). It is near the tip of Tigara Peninsula, a gravel spit that is the western<br />

most point on the Northwest Alaska coast (Figure 3). It is also within the boundaries of the North Slope<br />

Borough <strong>and</strong> receives health services from the Maniilaq Association. All other communities served by<br />

Maniilaq are located in the Northwest Arctic Borough.<br />

The Chukchi Sea surrounds the <strong>Point</strong> Hope promontory on three sides but the near shore waters are<br />

very shallow; up to five miles from the shore, the water reaches depths of only 60 feet. Tides do not<br />

have a direct impact on <strong>Point</strong> Hope, but strong ocean currents bring waters north through the Bering<br />

Strait. Sea ice can be present from October to early July. Sediments deposited by the Ipewik <strong>and</strong> Kukpuk<br />

branches of the Kuukpak River form beach ridges that extend into the sea in a triangular shape. The<br />

mountainous areas reach elevations of 1,000 to 2,000 feet in the Lisburne Hills to the north <strong>and</strong> the<br />

Kemegrak Hills to the south.<br />

The Tigara (Tikeraq) Peninsula, named for the Inupiaq word for index finger, dates back to 600 B.C as<br />

one of the oldest continuously occupied Iñupiat marine mammal hunting communities in the Arctic.<br />

Commercial whaling came to <strong>Point</strong> Hope in the 1800s, including shore‐based stations. For the next 100<br />

years commercial whaling exerted a powerful influence on <strong>Point</strong> Hope, providing jobs, but also<br />

increasing exposure to western goods, technology, culture, <strong>and</strong> disease. The City of <strong>Point</strong> Hope was<br />

incorporated in 1966. The Native Village of <strong>Point</strong> Hope is the federally recognized tribal government.<br />

In 1990, <strong>Point</strong> Hope had a total population of 639. In 2000, the population was 757, with 91% Alaska<br />

Native. In 2000, 25.71% of the population was employed <strong>and</strong> 51.32% of adults were not in the<br />

workforce. The median household income was $63,125, per capita income was $16,641, <strong>and</strong> 14.83% of<br />

residents were living below the poverty level (DCCED, 2009). Most full‐time employment is with the city,<br />

tribal <strong>and</strong> borough governments, or with Tikigaq, the local Alaska Native for‐profit corporation formed<br />

under the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act.<br />

Residents are active year‐round with subsistence activities for seals, walrus, bowhead whales, beluga<br />

whales, caribou, polar bears, birds, fish <strong>and</strong> berries, greens, <strong>and</strong> other edible plants. Commercial fishing<br />

is limited; in 2000, only two residents held a commercial fishing permit. Whalebone masks, baleen<br />

baskets, ivory carvings, <strong>and</strong> Inupiat clothing are manufactured locally. <strong>Point</strong> Hope is a dry community,<br />

where the sale, importation or possession of alcohol is banned.<br />

7


A paved airstrip provides <strong>Point</strong> Hope's only year‐round access. An overl<strong>and</strong> evacuation route via the 7<br />

Mile Road leads inl<strong>and</strong>. Skiffs, skin boats, <strong>and</strong> snowmachines are used for local transportation <strong>and</strong><br />

barges deliver goods during summer months.<br />

The North Slope Borough provides all utilities, <strong>and</strong> piped water <strong>and</strong> sewer is available for most residents.<br />

The water source is a tundra lake located seven miles from the town. The Tikigaq School provides K‐12<br />

education for approximately 223 students.<br />

The <strong>Point</strong> Hope Clinic is staffed by two community health aides <strong>and</strong> residents must travel about 150<br />

miles by air to Kotzebue for the next level of primary care <strong>and</strong> some specialty care at the Kotzebue<br />

Hospital. Most specialty health care is provided at the Alaska Native Medical Center, located 540 air<br />

miles away in Anchorage.<br />

GENERAL HEALTH STATUS<br />

<strong>Health</strong> is a state of complete physical, mental, <strong>and</strong> social well‐being <strong>and</strong> not merely the absence of<br />

disease or infirmity (World <strong>Health</strong> Organization, 1946).<br />

Individual health is determined by a variety of factors including heredity, personal behavior, <strong>and</strong> the<br />

environmental, economic <strong>and</strong> social factors collectively termed “social determinants. <strong>Climate</strong> change in<br />

the Northwest Arctic has the potential to impact all determinants of health, changing communities <strong>and</strong><br />

individual vulnerability to disease <strong>and</strong> injury.<br />

Identifying linkages between climate change <strong>and</strong> health effects can help in the prevention of negative<br />

health outcomes. This requires an underst<strong>and</strong>ing of the community, the general health of the<br />

population, <strong>and</strong> the types of environmental changes that are occurring.<br />

This section provides a summary of general health status for the Maniilaq Service Area (Figure 2). <strong>Health</strong><br />

data on a regional scale is available on major indicators, such as mortality, disease rates, <strong>and</strong> causes for<br />

hospitalization (<strong>ANTHC</strong>, 2008). <strong>Health</strong> data was not available at the community level. Interviews were<br />

performed with clinic staff about potential climate related health effects.<br />

During the last half century, indicators of overall health have improved substantially for Alaska Natives.<br />

In 1950, the life expectancy for Alaska Natives was 46.6 years; by 1998 it had climbed to 69.5 years<br />

(Goldsmith et al., 2004). Between 1979 <strong>and</strong> 1998, overall mortality decreased among Alaska Natives by<br />

20%, largely attributed to decreases in death from infectious disease <strong>and</strong> unintentional injuries (Lanier<br />

et al., 2002). Improvements in socio‐economic status, housing, sanitation, <strong>and</strong> health care all<br />

contributed to general improvement in Alaska Native health.<br />

8


Figure 3 Aerial Photograph of <strong>Point</strong> Hope (Google Earth, 2009)<br />

9


Despite health successes, significant health disparities remain between the non‐Native population <strong>and</strong><br />

Alaska Natives. As mortality rates from infectious disease <strong>and</strong> incidence of vaccine‐preventable diseases<br />

have decreased, rates for chronic diseases including cancer (+12%), chronic obstructive pulmonary<br />

disease (+191%), <strong>and</strong> diabetes (+ 262%) have increased.<br />

Mortality rates for Alaska Natives exceed “U.S. All Races” for all causes except heart disease (<strong>ANTHC</strong>,<br />

2009). Injury rates, suicide <strong>and</strong> health problems related to social strain <strong>and</strong> change (such as domestic<br />

violence, alcohol <strong>and</strong> substance abuse, assault, <strong>and</strong> homicide) remain far higher than rates for the<br />

general U.S. population (<strong>ANTHC</strong>, January 2008).<br />

Between 1999 <strong>and</strong> 2003, the top five leading causes of death in the Maniilaq Area were: 1) cancer, 2)<br />

heart disease, 3) unintentional injuries, 4) cerebrovascular diseases <strong>and</strong> 5) suicide (Figure 4). In 2005,<br />

the number one cause of hospitalization was pneumonia (Figure 5).<br />

Figure 4. Leading Cause of Death, Age Adjusted Mortality Rate per 100,000 (1999‐2003)<br />

Mortality Rates<br />

Age adjusted per 100,000<br />

Maniilaq<br />

AN<br />

Statewide<br />

AN<br />

US<br />

Whites<br />

<strong>Health</strong>y<br />

Peoples<br />

2010<br />

Rate Ration<br />

(Maniilaq AN vs.<br />

US Whites)<br />

1 Cancer 347.8 245.4 193.5 159.9 1.8<br />

2 Heart Disease 321.3 211.4 234.6 166.0 1.3<br />

3 Unintentional Injuries 133.6 116.1 36.4 17.5 3.7<br />

4 Cerebrovascular Diseases 80.4 64.4 55.6 48.0 1.4<br />

5 Suicide 79.5 36.3 11.6 5.0 6.9<br />

AN ‐ Alaska Native<br />

US Whites ‐ a population commonly used as a comparison measure<br />

<strong>Health</strong>y People 2010 – Statewide <strong>Health</strong> Objectives<br />

Alaska Data Source: Alaska Bureau of Vital Statistics. Analysis conducted by Alaska Native Epidemiology Center.<br />

US Data Source: Surveillance, Epidemiology, <strong>and</strong> End Results (SEER) Program, National Cancer Institute.<br />

CLIMATE CHANGE AND PATTERNS OF ILLNESS<br />

An illness is termed acute when it has a rapid onset or a short course. An illness is termed chronic when<br />

it is long‐lasting or recurrent. This section provides a brief discussion about patterns of acute illness such<br />

as injuries <strong>and</strong> infectious diseases; <strong>and</strong> chronic illness such as heart disease, diabetes <strong>and</strong> cancer, as well<br />

as a discussion about potential relationships to climate change.<br />

10


Figure 5. Top 15 Maniilaq <strong>Health</strong> Center, Discharges by ICD Code, All Ages, Fiscal Year 2005<br />

Rank Cause Number % Total<br />

1 Pneumonia 55 55.6<br />

2 Deliveries (childbirth) 36 36.4<br />

3 Accidents <strong>and</strong> Injuries 17 17.2<br />

4 Heart Disease 12 12.1<br />

5 Neuroses & Personality Disorders 9 9.1<br />

6 Psychoses 8 8.1<br />

7 Bronchitis, Emphysema 7 7.1<br />

8 Urinary Tract Diseases 7 7.1<br />

9 Complications of Pregnancy 7 7.1<br />

10 Disease of the Blood 6 6.1<br />

11 Injected Skin 6 6.1<br />

12 Nutrition <strong>and</strong> Metabolic Disorders 4 4.0<br />

13 Cerebrovascular Disease 4 4.0<br />

14 Disease of the Gall Bladder 3 3.0<br />

15 Convulsions 3 3.0<br />

Data Source ‐ Indian <strong>Health</strong> Service, NPIRS (Patient Registration System)<br />

ICD ‐ International Classification of Diseases (WHO)<br />

Note: ICD Recode combines similar primary diagnoses into categories.<br />

Acute Illness<br />

Unintentional Injury: Between 1999 <strong>and</strong> 2003, unintentional injury was the second leading cause of<br />

death in the Maniilaq Area. Injury rates correlate closely with alcohol use <strong>and</strong> social strain. Alcohol has<br />

been estimated to be involved in up to 38% of all injury hospitalizations in Alaska Natives (<strong>ANTHC</strong>,<br />

January 2008). There has, however, been some reduction in unintentional injury mortality rates, largely<br />

due to injury prevention programs <strong>and</strong> the efficacy of local alcohol prohibition ordinances (Lanier et al.,<br />

2002).<br />

<strong>Climate</strong> change has been associated with increases in extreme weather that can increase risk for<br />

hypothermia, frostbite, heatstroke or heat exhaustion. Delayed freeze‐up, early thaw, or unusual midseason<br />

weather can increase hazards <strong>and</strong> result in vehicular accidents <strong>and</strong> falls through ice. Between<br />

1999 <strong>and</strong> 2006, favorable climate conditions for stinging insects resulted in an increase (+626%) in<br />

health facility visits in Northern Alaska (Demain et al., 2008). Storms, floods, erosion, wildfires, <strong>and</strong><br />

l<strong>and</strong>slides are other examples of climate‐related effects that can increase the risk of injury.<br />

Infectious Disease: Infectious disease continues to be a major health concern in the Maniilaq Area,<br />

including respiratory <strong>and</strong> skin infections (<strong>ANTHC</strong>, 2008). In 2005, pneumonia was the leading cause of<br />

hospitalization, accounting for over 55% of hospital discharges (Figure 5). A recent study found that<br />

Alaska Natives in homes without running water experience far higher rates of pneumonia <strong>and</strong> other<br />

serious lower respiratory tract infections than do Alaska Natives in homes with complete water service<br />

11


(Hennessy et al., 2008). Approximately 18% of households in the Maniilaq Area do not have access to<br />

piped water service. Infants in villages with the lowest percentage of homes with running water are<br />

hospitalized for pneumonia 11 times more often than infants in the overall U.S. population.<br />

Warming temperatures may lead to an increase in food‐borne <strong>and</strong> gastrointestinal diseases (Parkinson,<br />

2008). <strong>Climate</strong> change may indirectly increase the risk of infectious disease when extreme weather<br />

events damage or disrupts sanitation services. Infectious diseases are also spreading to the Arctic from<br />

warmer areas; examples include giardia, a parasite in beavers that contaminates water, <strong>and</strong> brucella,<br />

the bacteria that causes brucellosis, a disease like tuberculosis that is carried by both sea <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong><br />

mammals. <strong>Climate</strong> change could also decrease some disease, as the number of respiratory infections in<br />

a population is primarily determined by length of the winter disease (flu) season.<br />

Chronic Illness<br />

Chronic Illnesses, such as cancer, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease (e.g. stroke), metabolic disease<br />

(e.g. diabetes), <strong>and</strong> pulmonary (lung) disease, are on the rise among Alaska Natives, including the<br />

Maniilaq Area. Practicing a healthy lifestyle is an important preventive behavior for all of these diseases.<br />

In the Inupiat culture, social structure, economy, <strong>and</strong> individual health are grounded in the subsistence<br />

lifestyle, which includes a diet based on the consumption of traditional foods.<br />

The traditional subsistence diet is rich in essential nutrients <strong>and</strong> provides a wide range of welldocumented<br />

protective health benefits against chronic illness, as well as contributing to cultural<br />

integrity, mental health, physical activity, <strong>and</strong> overall wellness. An emerging health risk for Alaska<br />

Natives is the potential negative effects of climate change on the availability <strong>and</strong> quality of traditional<br />

subsistence foods.<br />

Cancer: In the early part of the 20 th century, cancer was not a major cause of death among Alaska<br />

Natives. But cancer rates have been gradually rising, due largely to longer life span, changing diet, <strong>and</strong><br />

growing behavioral risk factors such as tobacco use. During the 1990s, as the overall U.S. cancer death<br />

rate declined, the rates of cancer among Alaska Natives increased (<strong>ANTHC</strong>, 2004).<br />

Between 2004 <strong>and</strong> 2007, cancer was the second leading cause of death among Alaska Natives (<strong>ANTHC</strong>,<br />

2009). Nine types of cancer are more frequent among Alaska Natives than in the U.S. white population:<br />

nasopharynx, esophagus, stomach, colon/rectum, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, lung, <strong>and</strong> kidney.<br />

Between 1989 <strong>and</strong> 2004, cancer was the leading cause of mortality (age adjusted) in the Maniilaq Area.<br />

The most frequent occurring cancer among men was colon, for women breast cancer, <strong>and</strong> colon cancer<br />

for both sexes combined (<strong>ANTHC</strong>, 2008).<br />

<strong>Climate</strong>‐related influences on cancer risk include impacts to subsistence lifestyle <strong>and</strong> the potential to<br />

increase exposure to environmental contaminants that are from local sources (such as dump sites) or<br />

from global sources <strong>and</strong> transported to the Arctic by ocean, air currents, <strong>and</strong> migratory species. Thawing<br />

of ice, snow, <strong>and</strong> permafrost mobilizes pollutants (both natural <strong>and</strong> man‐made) including carcinogens<br />

like PCBs <strong>and</strong> DDT, <strong>and</strong> metals like mercury (Berner & Furgal, 2005).<br />

Cardiovascular Disease: Cardiovascular disease includes diseases of the heart <strong>and</strong> circulation system.<br />

Along with various forms of heart disease <strong>and</strong> stroke, it is the leading cause of death in the United States<br />

12


<strong>and</strong> a major cause of disability. Along with associated risk factors such as obesity, glucose intolerance,<br />

diabetes, <strong>and</strong> hypertension, the rate of cardiovascular disease is increasing among Alaska Natives.<br />

Multiple studies associate cardiovascular disease among Alaska Natives with increased intake of<br />

nontraditional foods (Murphy et al., 1995; Nobmann et al., 2005; Stang et al., 2005). Alaska Natives have<br />

also been increasingly exposed to social <strong>and</strong> environmental risk factors such as tobacco use, <strong>and</strong><br />

transition to lifestyles that are less physically active (Eberhart‐Phillips et al., 2003). People that continue<br />

to live a traditional subsistence lifestyle are generally at lower risk for cardiovascular disease.<br />

Mental <strong>Health</strong>: The World <strong>Health</strong> Organization defines mental health as "a state of well‐being in which<br />

the individual realizes his or her own abilities, can cope with the normal stresses of life, can work<br />

productively <strong>and</strong> fruitfully, <strong>and</strong> is able to make a contribution to his or her community” (WHO, 2005).<br />

Alaska Natives experience high rates of mental health problems including anxiety, depression, assault,<br />

suicide, drug <strong>and</strong> alcohol abuse, <strong>and</strong> domestic violence.<br />

Causal factors may include rapid cultural change (Curtis et al., 2005) <strong>and</strong> the sense of profound loss of<br />

past social, cultural, <strong>and</strong> environmental conditions (Albrecht et al. 2006). Another factor is distress from<br />

threats to one’s community, environment, or way of life. Until the threat is removed, people respond<br />

emotionally, based upon their coping abilities (Luginaah et al., 2002).<br />

<strong>Climate</strong> change can generate stress <strong>and</strong> fear related to the safety <strong>and</strong> security of family, home, <strong>and</strong><br />

community. <strong>Change</strong>s in wildlife, habitat, l<strong>and</strong>scape, weather, traditional practices, <strong>and</strong> cultural sites<br />

among others areas, may compound existing concerns. <strong>Climate</strong> change may also increase competition<br />

for limited resources, affecting interpersonal <strong>and</strong> intergroup behavior (American Psychological<br />

Association, 2009).<br />

OBSERVATIONS AND FINDINGS<br />

This section provides a summary of the findings based on the seven categories deemed relevant to the<br />

Maniilaq Area. For each category a summary is provided of the observations reported by <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />

residents, as well as data acquired from local sources, published studies, government records, or<br />

experts.<br />

At the top of each section, a short list is provided summarizing Observed <strong>Change</strong>s, <strong>Health</strong> Concerns, <strong>and</strong><br />

Potential Adaptation, measures. Where possible, “Projected Future <strong>Change</strong>” has been provided based<br />

on observed or measured trends, projections, or climate models.<br />

13


Temperature <strong>and</strong> Precipitation<br />

Observed change: increasing variability <strong>and</strong> extremes; delayed freeze‐up <strong>and</strong> early thaw.<br />

<strong>Health</strong> concerns: injury from extreme weather, increased cost for basic services.<br />

Projected future change: warmer <strong>and</strong> more precipitation, winter temperatures above 0°F.<br />

Potential adaptation: improve local weather observations, injury prevention.<br />

In <strong>Point</strong> Hope, significant changes in temperature, precipitation, wind, <strong>and</strong> other indicators of climate<br />

change have been observed by local residents. This includes an increase in frequency of extreme<br />

weather <strong>and</strong> changes in seasonality, with spring thaw occurring earlier <strong>and</strong> the fall freeze‐up occurring<br />

later. Residents report summers that are very hot <strong>and</strong> dry, <strong>and</strong> winters that are more variable, with<br />

sudden <strong>and</strong> dramatic temperature swings between very cold <strong>and</strong> very warm. The exception was the<br />

winter of 2008/2009 which brought extreme high temperatures, then low temperatures, <strong>and</strong> then<br />

record snow fall <strong>and</strong> snow accumulation.<br />

Over the past 50 years, Alaska has warmed at more than twice the rate of the rest of the country. The<br />

annual average temperature in Alaska has increased 3.4°F, with winters warming by 6.3°F (Fitzpatrick et<br />

al., 2008). Average annual temperatures are projected to rise another 3.5°F to 7°F by the middle of this<br />

century (U.S. Global <strong>Change</strong> Research Program, 2009). The <strong>Point</strong> Hope climate is arctic. Historically,<br />

summers have been short <strong>and</strong> cool, with temperatures ranging from 30°F to 50°F. During the winter,<br />

temperatures averaged below zero, sometimes as cold as ‐50°F, but generally between 0 <strong>and</strong> ‐10°F.<br />

Precipitation is light, 10 to 12 inches annually, with about 36 inches of snowfall that becomes hardpacked<br />

by November. Strong northern surface winds bring storms of blowing snow. The Chukchi Sea has<br />

typically been ice‐free from late June until mid‐September, when the slush ice would form along the<br />

shoreline.<br />

Weather data is collected from the FAA Station at the <strong>Point</strong> Hope airstrip <strong>and</strong> includes: wind speed,<br />

wind direction, dew point, precipitation, snow fall, snow on the ground, peak winds, extreme snow<br />

loads, <strong>and</strong> temperature (Figures 5, 6, 13, 14; Appendix A1, A2). Archive data is available from 1924 to<br />

1954, but is incomplete with no data during the 1960s, 70s, or 80s. Weather data for <strong>Point</strong> Hope from<br />

1991 until 2008 is available from the Kotzebue Field Office of the National Weather Service (NWS). A<br />

comparison of mean monthly temperature for this period shows that <strong>Point</strong> Hope is an average of five to<br />

ten degrees colder then Kotzebue during summer months, but has approximately the same average<br />

winter temperatures. Additionally, Kotzebue <strong>and</strong> <strong>Point</strong> Hope have increased temperature at roughly the<br />

same rate since 1944.<br />

Archive weather data (temperature <strong>and</strong> precipitation) for Kotzebue spans from the 1930s until the<br />

present. The Kotzebue temperature data shows a gradual increase in average annual temperature <strong>and</strong><br />

total annual precipitation between the 1940s <strong>and</strong> the present. Figures 6 provides trend data on mean<br />

annual temperature from the 1930s until 2010 (projected). Figure 7 provides trend data on mean annual<br />

precipitation from the late 1940s until 2005.<br />

Between 1949 <strong>and</strong> 2006 the Northwest Arctic had an increase in average annual temperature of 3.2 o F<br />

(Shulski, 2007). During this period, winter temperatures changed most dramatically <strong>and</strong> fall<br />

temperatures the least. For December through January, temperatures increased by 6.8 o F, spring (March<br />

to May) increased by 2.1 o F, summer (June to August) by 2.4 o F, <strong>and</strong> fall (Sept to Nov) by 1.4 o F.<br />

14


Figure 6<br />

Source: Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center<br />

Figure 7<br />

Source: Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center<br />

15


Observations from <strong>Point</strong> Hope residents reflect local concerns over the relationship between weather<br />

<strong>and</strong> health. One elder stated that weather variability was increasing frequency of infectious diseases like<br />

colds <strong>and</strong> influenza, <strong>and</strong> severity of chronic conditions such as arthritis (Towksjhea,, J. 2009). School<br />

officials noted that the wind <strong>and</strong> extreme cold during the winter was unsafe for young children traveling<br />

to <strong>and</strong> from school (McCarthy, T. 2009).<br />

There was no data of a change in rates of weather‐related health issues, such as vehicle accidents,<br />

hypothermia or frostbite (Davenport, A. 2009; Sharp, S. 2009). However, as reported by the Fire Chief,<br />

there were frequent travel alerts via VHF radio, 20 search <strong>and</strong> rescues were performed this year, <strong>and</strong><br />

winter travelers exercised caution <strong>and</strong> used borough supplied personal locator beacons (Hunnicutt, W.<br />

2009a). When activated, the beacons send out a signal that is picked up by search <strong>and</strong> rescue services in<br />

Barrow.<br />

According to the Village Services Supervisor, extreme snowfall resulted in increased costs for labor, fuel,<br />

maintenance, <strong>and</strong> repairs on heavy equipment. This created an added <strong>and</strong> unexpected burden on the<br />

city’s general fund (Stone, K. 2009). Local governments typically do not have the financial resources to<br />

provide exp<strong>and</strong>ed levels of service. If extreme weather results in funding shortfalls, it can affect health<br />

by undermining other services, such as operation <strong>and</strong> maintenance of water <strong>and</strong> sewer infrastructure.<br />

<strong>Climate</strong> projections provided by the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP) at UAF indicate that<br />

trends of increasing precipitation <strong>and</strong> temperature will continue in <strong>Point</strong> Hope. Figures 8 <strong>and</strong> 9 provide<br />

projections based on the SNAP models. Current (1990‐2009) average temperatures in <strong>Point</strong> Hope are<br />

below zero from January through March. In 50 years, it is projected that no month will have an average<br />

temperature below 0 o F; rather average monthly temperature will range between roughly 5 o F to 30 o F.<br />

Current summer average temperatures (1990‐2009) range from 35 o F to 45 o F. In 50 years, summer<br />

temperatures are projected to range from roughly 43 o F to 54 o F. Despite higher annual precipitation, a<br />

generally drier summer environment is expected with dramatic effects on hydrology, wildlife <strong>and</strong> Arctic<br />

communities. Precipitation data is provided in Appendix A.<br />

Recommendation: <strong>Point</strong> Hope residents rely upon traditional knowledge to make decisions about where<br />

<strong>and</strong> when to harvest traditional foods. They also rely upon the weather data generated from the<br />

automated Federal Aviation Administration Station at the <strong>Point</strong> Hope airstrip, <strong>and</strong> observations from<br />

Kotzebue, Barrow, Fairbanks, <strong>and</strong> other locations. Weather changes will continue to present challenges<br />

to transportation, including subsistence activities, <strong>and</strong> air service to <strong>and</strong> from the community. The<br />

capacity to measure, interpret, <strong>and</strong> forecast weather conditions is critical for individual safety <strong>and</strong> for<br />

community health, but local automated data is limited, as is the archived weather data needed for<br />

substantiating local climate change.<br />

The National Weather Service is currently establishing regional <strong>Climate</strong> Reference Network (CRN)<br />

Stations across Alaska that will greatly exp<strong>and</strong> regional climate data. <strong>Point</strong> Hope is listed as one of the<br />

possible site locations. Hosting such a site would improve access to local weather <strong>and</strong> climate data.<br />

Additionally, the National Weather Service has local observer programs that can help to improve<br />

forecasting. Collaboration on a local observer program could provide a method of combining scientific<br />

measurements <strong>and</strong> traditional knowledge for improved forecasting <strong>and</strong> climate change measures.<br />

16


Figure 8 Graph by <strong>ANTHC</strong>. Source: National Weather Service, Weather Underground<br />

Figure 9<br />

Source: Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning<br />

17


Sea Level <strong>Change</strong><br />

Observed change: rise in sea level is resulting in increased erosion <strong>and</strong> increased risk of flooding.<br />

<strong>Health</strong> concerns: injury from extreme weather, anxiety over flood risk, damage to infrastructure.<br />

Projected future change: within 80‐90 years, a minimum sea level rise of .6 feet to 1.9 feet.<br />

Potential adaptation: flood study with climate predictions, flood protection to infrastructure.<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope is at risk for flooding from storm surge (a coastal flood that occurs when the sea is driven<br />

inl<strong>and</strong>) <strong>and</strong> from ice <strong>and</strong> gravel jams. Sea level rise will increase both the risk <strong>and</strong> the level of investment<br />

needed to protect the community. The elevation of <strong>Point</strong> Hope is only about ten feet above mean high<br />

water. The highest point in town is the school, which serves as the emergency shelter. The airport located<br />

near Old Town is especially susceptible to flooding, <strong>and</strong> the primary evacuation site is Beacon Hill<br />

(elevation 46 feet), located at the end of 7 Mile Road. In 2005, 2006 <strong>and</strong> 2008, strong winds created ice<br />

<strong>and</strong> gravel dams in the drainage of the Kukpuk River. In 2006, trapped water from Marryat Inlet flooded a<br />

section of 7 Mile Road <strong>and</strong> a channel was constructed to prevent flooding of the town. Subsequent erosion<br />

required a $433,000.00 restoration project to rebuild the road (USACE, 2009).<br />

When considering flood adaption, at‐risk communities have three options: 1) create protective barriers, 2)<br />

evacuate <strong>and</strong> rebuild, or 3) relocate. The City of <strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>and</strong> the North Slope Borough have been<br />

actively addressing flood risk for decades, <strong>and</strong> have employed all three of these options. For protective<br />

barriers, a 10‐foot gravel berm was constructed extending 8 to 10 miles along Nubugalak <strong>Point</strong>; the berm is<br />

repaired using heavy equipment each summer. Rebuilding due to flood damage is ongoing, there is<br />

currently a $2 million dollar improvement project underway on 7 Mile Road to raise the elevation, improve<br />

drainage, <strong>and</strong> reduce flood risk. The town was relocated two miles to the east in the early 1970s.<br />

The United Nations estimates that the minimum global sea level rise will be between .6 to 1.9 feet within<br />

80 to 90 years (IPCC, 2007). The USGS <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Science Program (Clark, P. et. al, 2008) found that<br />

the UN predictions were overly conservative. Globally, the greatest amount of sea level rise is projected to<br />

occur in the Arctic (Walsh, J, 2005a). The State of Alaska does not have an established sea level prediction.<br />

California is using a 4.6‐foot prediction for 100‐year planning purposes (Heberger et al., 2009). No<br />

published sea level change estimates were found for <strong>Point</strong> Hope. Yale University is developing 100‐year sea<br />

level maps to predict impacts for some coastal Northwest Arctic communities (Leiserowitz, T., 2009).<br />

A sea level rise projection map (one to three feet) was developed using Arc Map 9.3 GIS (Figure 10). A l<strong>and</strong><br />

satellite image was overlaid with USGS Digital Elevation Models (60 meter resolution); highlighting various<br />

potential ranges above mean sea level. At the 3.28‐foot level (1 meter) <strong>Point</strong> Hope is cut off from the<br />

mainl<strong>and</strong>; the airport, town site, egress road, <strong>and</strong> drinking water supply are all prone to damage from<br />

flooding. A storm surge map was also prepared for <strong>Point</strong> Hope. <strong>Point</strong> Hope is at “moderate” storm surge<br />

risk, meaning that flooding, six feet above the normal high tide surf level, is expected every three to five<br />

years (AK Emergency Management, 2007). The map (Figure 11), is based on a 4.2 meter surge, the 50‐year<br />

estimate developed for Kivalina, (USACE, 2006).<br />

Recommendation: Flood <strong>and</strong> storm surge projections should be developed for <strong>Point</strong> Hope using actual<br />

erosion rates <strong>and</strong> employing finer resolution sea level <strong>and</strong> elevation data. Prevention of injury <strong>and</strong> damage<br />

to infrastructure from storm surge depends upon forecasting <strong>and</strong> adequate time for preparation <strong>and</strong><br />

evacuation. Improved meteorological measurements may improve forecasting. Continued erosion <strong>and</strong><br />

flood prevention, <strong>and</strong> improved evacuation routes are important to help prevent injury <strong>and</strong> damage to<br />

infrastructure.<br />

18


Figure 10 (AOOS, 2009)<br />

Figure 11 (AOOS, 2009)<br />

19


Erosion<br />

Observed change: delayed shore ice, thawing permafrost, <strong>and</strong> storm activity resulting in rapid erosion.<br />

<strong>Health</strong> concerns: damage to critical infrastructure including airport, roads, <strong>and</strong> cold cellars; injury.<br />

Projected future change: increased rate of shore <strong>and</strong> river bank erosion, growing river navigation hazards.<br />

Potential adaptation: shore <strong>and</strong> river monitoring, erosion mitigation measures, injury prevention.<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope has, for some 2,500 years, provided a prime location for harvesting sea mammals <strong>and</strong> other<br />

subsistence resources. However, it is also an area that is extremely exposed to the coastal elements<br />

including ocean waves, coastal currents, <strong>and</strong> strong winds that sweep the <strong>Point</strong> Hope peninsula. The spit is<br />

continuously changing; building in some areas, eroding in others. Thawing permafrost <strong>and</strong> storm activity<br />

during ice‐free seasons is causing increased rates of erosion along the banks of the Kukpuk <strong>and</strong> other rivers<br />

<strong>and</strong> to beaches <strong>and</strong> beach ridges.<br />

There is limited information on the rate of erosion <strong>and</strong> no riverine erosion surveys have yet been performed.<br />

In 1972, the erosion rate on the north side of the spit was estimated at eight feet per year (USACE, 1972). It<br />

is likely that this rate has increased, <strong>and</strong> certain that episodic events, such as fall storms, can cause<br />

significantly greater rates of erosion. Storm‐related events have eroded up to 50 feet of shoreline in Kivalina,<br />

71 miles to the south. <strong>Point</strong> Hope has been classified as a “monitor conditions community”, meaning that<br />

significant erosion impacts are occurring, but are not likely to affect the viability of the community (USACE,<br />

2009). Although no structures or facilities at the new town site are considered to be at‐risk, other sites<br />

including the airstrip, Old Town, grave sites, <strong>and</strong> community food storage cellars are threatened by erosion.<br />

Additionally, navigability of Marryat Inlet, the Kukpuk River, <strong>and</strong> other important waterways are changing<br />

due to a combination of erosion, sedimentation, <strong>and</strong> reduced water levels. This diminishes access to<br />

subsistence areas, increases the risk of damage to equipment such as boats <strong>and</strong> outboard motors, <strong>and</strong> may<br />

increase the risk of accidental injury.<br />

In 1997, the North Slope Borough spent about two million dollars constructing a 275‐foot rock revetment<br />

east of the runway. This is helping to slow erosion in the coastal area. On the north beach, 10% of the old<br />

town site has been lost to erosion <strong>and</strong> only 50 to 60 traditional sod homes remain.<br />

Also at risk from flooding is a mass grave at the old town site from the early 1900s. The reason for the burial<br />

is uncertain, but there were several devastating epidemics in <strong>Point</strong> Hope between the 1860s <strong>and</strong> through<br />

the early 1900s. These include outbreaks of tuberculosis, small pox, measles <strong>and</strong> influenza. <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />

residents were particularly vulnerable because of the transient population of European whalers that worked<br />

from shore stations in the community. The mass grave may date back to the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918–<br />

1919. Influenza virus <strong>and</strong> other infectious agents have potential to be viable even after being frozen for<br />

many years. Whether any of the human remains in <strong>Point</strong> Hope could still be infectious is unknown.<br />

Recommendation: A comprehensive erosion assessment that identifies vulnerable infrastructure <strong>and</strong> habitat<br />

is recommended. Although coastal erosion mechanisms are well documented, new erosion problems, like<br />

those along area rivers, are emerging <strong>and</strong> threatening water quality, river navigation, <strong>and</strong> critical habitat.<br />

Erosion prevention measures can help protect coastal <strong>and</strong> river areas as well as critical infrastructure. <strong>Point</strong><br />

Hope may wish to explore opportunities with the National Weather Service to exp<strong>and</strong> coastal monitoring. In<br />

the event that burial sites are exposed from erosion, infection prevention measures should be considered<br />

prior to h<strong>and</strong>ling any human remains. Additionally, erosion is causing the loss of coastal cold storage cellars,<br />

as they are being gradually washed into the sea; of the 50 previously used, only about 20 still remain<br />

(USACE, 2009). The loss of these cellars raises concerns about storage of whale meat <strong>and</strong> overall community<br />

food security.<br />

20


Permafrost<br />

Observed change: warming soil temperature is thawing traditional food cellars.<br />

<strong>Health</strong> concern: reduced subsistence food supply <strong>and</strong> increased food borne illness.<br />

Projected future change: 20‐50+% increase in active (seasonal) thaw layer.<br />

Potential adaptation: baseline permafrost mapping, monitoring, <strong>and</strong> alternative cold storage methods.<br />

Permafrost temperatures have been rising throughout Alaska since the late 1970s (Lettenmaier et al.<br />

2008). The largest increases have occurred in the north, <strong>and</strong> it is projected that the top 30 feet of<br />

discontinuous permafrost will thaw in Alaska during this century (Parson, 2001). The Northwest Arctic is<br />

located in a transition zone between continuous <strong>and</strong> discontinuous permafrost that spans east‐west<br />

across this region roughly in line with the Kobuk River.<br />

Thawing of ice‐rich permafrost results in l<strong>and</strong> settlement (subsidence) with significant effects on<br />

ecosystems <strong>and</strong> infrastructure (USARC, 2003). Hundreds of sink holes (thermokarsts) have been<br />

observed in the Maniilaq Area <strong>and</strong> extensive erosion has been observed in coastal <strong>and</strong> river systems.<br />

Within 50 years, decreases of between 20% to 50% or more are expected in the active (seasonally<br />

freezing) permafrost layer. In the near term, thermokarsts conditions, including the rapid thaw of ice<br />

wedges along river banks <strong>and</strong> coastal areas, are expected to continue, resulting in erosion <strong>and</strong> changes<br />

to hydrology, vegetation, <strong>and</strong> wildlife (Martin et al., 2008).<br />

The city of <strong>Point</strong> Hope is located on a gravel spit, <strong>and</strong> a gravel pad foundation for the town site provides<br />

insulation to help preserve the underlying permafrost. There were no observed signs of permafrost<br />

thawing in the new town site: utility poles <strong>and</strong> fences are straight, <strong>and</strong> buildings appeared level. <strong>Point</strong><br />

Hope airstrip is permafrost vulnerable as are the roads (USARC, 2003). Residents are reporting impacts<br />

at subsistence camps where foundations are settling (Towksjhea, J., 2009). Soil temperatures are<br />

determined using sensors inserted into the ground with battery‐powered data loggers. Sensors are<br />

located in <strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>and</strong> are being monitored by local students in collaboration with the Geophysical<br />

Institute at UAF (Yoshikawa, K., 2009).<br />

Permafrost thawing is undermining food safety <strong>and</strong> security in <strong>Point</strong> Hope. Harvested whale is taken to<br />

underground ice cellars siġŀuaqs that have been passed down in whaling families for generations. Not<br />

only are siġŀuaqs being lost to coastal erosion, but they are also being compromised due to permafrost<br />

thaw. The cellars, made of whalebone <strong>and</strong> covered with tundra sod, have remained frozen year‐round<br />

until the last few years. The cellars are now typically thawed in the summer, sometimes filling with<br />

water, <strong>and</strong> resulting in meat <strong>and</strong> blubber that is unsafe. Thawing meat also attracts scavengers such as<br />

hungry polar bears, presenting new safety hazards. As a result, residents may be at‐risk for an increase<br />

in foodborne illness, as well as potential risk of injury or death. There is additionally an economic <strong>and</strong><br />

nutritional loss as meat that would otherwise be consumed is discarded.<br />

Recommendation: There are several possible approaches for improving food storage in <strong>Point</strong> Hope: 1)<br />

improve the environment (ventilation, drainage, temperature) at the current location, 2) establish new<br />

siġŀuaqs at a location with a better subsurface environment, <strong>and</strong> 3) develop an alternative method for<br />

food storage, such as community cold storage facilities. The status of these food storage cellars is<br />

described in greater detail in the <strong>ANTHC</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> Bulletin, <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>and</strong> Effects on<br />

Traditional Inupiaq Food Cellars (Brubaker et al., 2009a). Improved data on soil temperature <strong>and</strong><br />

permafrost conditions could help identify better locations for installation of new food storage cellars<br />

<strong>and</strong> identify other vulnerable infrastructure.<br />

21


Snow <strong>and</strong> Ice<br />

Observed change: delayed ice development <strong>and</strong> early thaw; thin ice, increased snow accumulation.<br />

<strong>Health</strong> concerns: injury, drowning, diminished diet, physical activity, <strong>and</strong> mental health.<br />

Projected future change: open sea routes, decline in ice‐dependent subsistence species.<br />

Potential adaptation: assess changing ice effects; increase Arctic climate adaptation dialogue.<br />

Changing snow <strong>and</strong> ice conditions are affecting transportation <strong>and</strong> subsistence activities, accelerating<br />

erosion, <strong>and</strong> threatening infrastructure in <strong>Point</strong> Hope. Potential health effects include injury or death<br />

from trauma, exposure, or drowning (e.g. falls through ice); damage to health infrastructure (e.g.<br />

increased snow loads <strong>and</strong> erosion damage to source water line); <strong>and</strong> mental <strong>and</strong> physical health<br />

problems related to disruption of subsistence lifestyles. Positive effects may include a longer season for<br />

open water subsistence harvesting <strong>and</strong> for drinking water collection <strong>and</strong> treatment.<br />

In <strong>Point</strong> Hope, ice has been forming later in the fall <strong>and</strong> breaking up earlier in the spring. From the<br />

1970s until 2006, the number of ice‐free days along the Chukchi Coast has increased by an average of 50<br />

to 95 days (Rodrigues, 2008 unpublished). This results in a shorter season for over‐ice transportation<br />

<strong>and</strong> ice‐based hunting <strong>and</strong> increased vulnerability to coastal erosion. Shore ice works as a coastal buffer,<br />

dissipating storm energy <strong>and</strong> protecting the shoreline from the force of wind <strong>and</strong> waves. If shore ice<br />

formation is delayed or diminished, storm‐related erosion can be expected to increase (Jones et al.,<br />

2009). Sea ice extent is monitored throughout the Arctic using satellite imagery. The decrease in<br />

summer sea ice has become more pronounced, especially in the Chukchi <strong>and</strong> Beaufort seas (Comiso,<br />

2002; Shimada et al. 2006). Continued sea ice retreat is projected, <strong>and</strong> in 50 years the Northwest<br />

Passage <strong>and</strong> Northern Sea Route may be ice‐free in summer (Walsh, J, 2005b).<br />

Receding <strong>and</strong> thinning sea ice is one of the most important indicators of change for the lives of Arctic<br />

indigenous people. During the past two decades, thick multi‐year ice has been replaced by thinner firstyear<br />

ice over large areas of the Western Arctic; Ice depth has decreased between 0.5 to 1 meter<br />

(Shirasawai et al., 2009). Snow cover influences the amount of ice that can be grown within a season,<br />

with more snow cover resulting in less ice. Future increases in precipitation <strong>and</strong> higher temperatures will<br />

therefore likely have additional influence on future sea ice conditions. Sea ice also influences plankton<br />

blooms, <strong>and</strong> is expected to facilitate major shifts of marine species.<br />

Whaling captains are concerned about ice changes <strong>and</strong> safety when working on the ice, as well as the<br />

implications for hunting success. Sea ice is used as a platform for hunting whale, seal, <strong>and</strong> walrus.<br />

Hunters recall typical ice thickness of 12 feet, as opposed to the approximate four feet typical today. On<br />

May 8, 2008, three <strong>Point</strong> Hope whaling crews were cast adrift when a huge slab of shore‐fast ice broke<br />

free (Arctic Sounder, 2008). The hunters were able to return to l<strong>and</strong> by boat, but their equipment had to<br />

be recovered by a rescue helicopter from Barrow. In addition to the safety concerns, ice depth has been<br />

related to decreased availability of walrus <strong>and</strong> delays in whale harvest. <strong>Point</strong> Hope hunters reported<br />

difficulty in finding ice thick enough for hauling‐out a whale. The single bowhead harvested in <strong>Point</strong><br />

Hope this spring had to be butchered in the water, a less efficient process.<br />

Recommendations: The emergency beacon program implemented by the North Slope Borough is a<br />

model for injury prevention, providing rescuers with immediate information about the location of<br />

individuals in peril. Increased cell phone access will also provide safety benefits. More research is<br />

needed on the implications of changing snow, ice, <strong>and</strong> weather conditions on infrastructure <strong>and</strong> health.<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope would benefit from participation in an exp<strong>and</strong>ed Arctic dialogue on sea ice changes <strong>and</strong><br />

adaptation.<br />

22


Figure 12<br />

Source: Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center<br />

Data taken from Weather Underground (wunderground.com)<br />

•Records only go back to December 1990, with only a few days missing in the records<br />

•No data on wind direction except in the daily archives (which means to compile this data you need to copy each day individually)<br />

Figure 13<br />

Source: Weather Underground Research<br />

23


Water <strong>and</strong> Sanitation<br />

Observed change: reduced drinking water source quality <strong>and</strong> quantity.<br />

<strong>Health</strong> concerns: water shortages, water availability, water quality, increased cost for treatment.<br />

Projected future change: fewer lakes, sea rise increases vulnerability to salt water intrusion.<br />

Potential adaptation: source water monitoring <strong>and</strong> assessment, emergency water shortage plan.<br />

Despite projections of increased precipitation, significantly more water will be leaving the Arctic<br />

l<strong>and</strong>scape in the future <strong>and</strong> most of Alaska is expected to become 10‐30% drier by the end of the<br />

century (O’Brien & Oya, 2009). In <strong>Point</strong> Hope, summer warming combined with decreased precipitation<br />

has caused tundra ponds to dry up, impacting water availability <strong>and</strong> quality. During the summers of<br />

2007 <strong>and</strong> 2008, water operators measured reduced quality in the raw water from the source lake. There<br />

was no evidence of change in the quality of water provided to residents, nor was there evidence of<br />

waterborne illness (Davenport, A., 2009). There was, however, a significant increase in operator labor.<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope acquires water from 7 Mile Lake, a small tundra lake that is recharged each year from snow<br />

melt <strong>and</strong> precipitation. There is a limited time frame when the lake is ice‐free, <strong>and</strong> when water can be<br />

pumped, treated, <strong>and</strong> transferred to above ground tanks for use throughout the year. From late June<br />

until early September, water is piped from the lake to the water treatment plant where it is filtered prior<br />

to chlorination. During this period, operators work around the clock to produce enough water (about<br />

eight million gallons) to last the whole year. As reported by <strong>Point</strong> Hope water operators, low<br />

precipitation <strong>and</strong> high temperatures during the summer of 2007 <strong>and</strong> 2008 contributed to source water<br />

quality problems. The water level in 7 Mile Lake was lower than normal <strong>and</strong> other tundra ponds located<br />

in the vicinity dried up completely. Raw water temperatures at the <strong>Point</strong> Hope treatment plant were<br />

between 50°F <strong>and</strong> 60°F, 10°F warmer then normal (Frankson, A., 2009).<br />

In their log books, operators reported increases in the amount of biologic slime collecting in the water<br />

treatment bag filters (Figure 14). Consequently, the number of filter changes increased dramatically, to<br />

the point where it was interrupting operations. Typically operators clean the bag filters about four times<br />

per day. In 2008, the number of changes at times rose to almost 50 times per day. On July 27, 2008, at<br />

the peak of the source water quality problem, <strong>Point</strong> Hope operators were spending approximately eight<br />

hours, or one‐third of each 24‐hour shift performing filter maintenance. The slime is suspected to be<br />

organic growth including insect larvae <strong>and</strong> algae. Scientists from UAA’s Environmental <strong>and</strong> Natural<br />

Resources Institute are coordinating with water operators in <strong>Point</strong> Hope to test water samples.<br />

Temperature is a limiting factor for algae growth <strong>and</strong> warm temperatures may have caused conditions<br />

to pass a tipping point, changing lake biology <strong>and</strong> encouraging rapid algae growth. Wind events stir lake<br />

water <strong>and</strong> can transport solids to the water system intake. July 2008 weather data (wind velocity <strong>and</strong> air<br />

temperatures) <strong>and</strong> filter change records provided supporting evidence of these influences, as illustrated<br />

in Figure 15 below.<br />

Recommendation: <strong>Point</strong> Hope is susceptible to hydrologic changes including water shortages influenced<br />

by alterations to annual precipitation <strong>and</strong> temperature. Thawing of permafrost may also contribute to<br />

increased organics into the lake water with a resultant change in water chemistry. Under a projected<br />

warming future, adaptation strategies will be needed to ensure efficient operation of the water system.<br />

Continued log recording <strong>and</strong> regular monitoring of the source water physical, chemical, <strong>and</strong> biological<br />

conditions is recommended. Additionally, a source water assessment would evaluate lake water<br />

conditions <strong>and</strong> quality. Sampling <strong>and</strong> analysis of the filter contents <strong>and</strong> lake water conditions would be<br />

part of this assessment (Brubaker et al., 2009b).<br />

24


Fig. 14<br />

Source: <strong>Point</strong> Hope Water Plant<br />

Figure 15<br />

Source: <strong>Point</strong> Hope Water Plant/ Weather Underground<br />

25


Food Safety <strong>and</strong> Security<br />

Observed change: warming is affecting harvest of fish <strong>and</strong> sea mammals; traditional cellars are thawing.<br />

<strong>Health</strong> concerns: changes in food quality <strong>and</strong> harvest may contribute to hunger, malnutrition, <strong>and</strong> disease.<br />

Projected future change: fewer ice dependent species, more invasive boreal species.<br />

Potential adaptation: assess community diet, food storage <strong>and</strong> food distribution, adaptive subsistence.<br />

Food safety refers to the practice of harvesting, preparing, <strong>and</strong> storing foods in ways that prevent foodborne<br />

illness. Food security means having nutritious foods <strong>and</strong> not having to live in hunger. In <strong>Point</strong> Hope, climate<br />

change is increasing exposure to unsafe foods <strong>and</strong> to food insecurity. The traditional subsistence lifestyle<br />

<strong>and</strong> diet provides protection against cardiovascular disease, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, stroke, obesity,<br />

osteoporosis, <strong>and</strong> some cancers. Traditional foods provide a wide range of essential micronutrients including<br />

iron <strong>and</strong> vitamins A, D, <strong>and</strong> E (Bersamin et al., 2007). The fruit <strong>and</strong> leaves of Arctic berries contain high levels<br />

of antioxidants (Thiem, 2003) <strong>and</strong> may help reduce incidence of obesity <strong>and</strong> type 2 diabetes. Northern fish<br />

<strong>and</strong> sea mammals are also high in omega‐3 fatty acids, an important anti‐inflammatory substance (Murphy<br />

et al., 1995).<br />

The percentage of wildlife harvested for subsistence in rural Alaska is about 60% fish, 20% marine mammals,<br />

14% l<strong>and</strong> mammals, 2% shellfish, 2% birds, <strong>and</strong> 2% wild plants (ADFG, 2000). There are substantial regional<br />

differences but harvest percentages have remained fairly consistent since the 1980s, although the amount<br />

harvested has decreased. A 2004 statewide dietary study documented an Alaska Native trend toward<br />

increased use of market foods (Ballew et al., 2004). Inupiat communities have the knowledge about a high<br />

number of food species (Kuhnlein et al., 2004) <strong>and</strong> <strong>Point</strong> Hope residents utilize a wide range of traditional<br />

foods in their diet including chum, pink <strong>and</strong> silver salmon, dolly Varden (trout), grayling, tom cod, beluga<br />

whale, bowhead whale, bearded <strong>and</strong> spotted seal, walrus, polar bear, caribou, moose, <strong>and</strong> various ducks,<br />

geese, other birds, berries <strong>and</strong> greens. Alaska Department of Fish <strong>and</strong> Game records indicate a daily wild<br />

food harvest of 1.4 pounds per person or 514 pounds per person, per year in <strong>Point</strong> Hope. <strong>Climate</strong> change is<br />

expected to dramatically alter the species that are available for harvest in the Arctic coastal plain <strong>and</strong> the<br />

coastal marine environment (Martin et al., 2008).<br />

As soil temperatures rise, the traditional cold storage cellars are less likely to prevent pathogens that cause<br />

foodborne illness from getting into traditionally stored foods. The most common types of foodborne<br />

illnesses in humans are caused by bacteria such as botulism, campylobacter, salmonella <strong>and</strong> e‐coli, <strong>and</strong><br />

viruses such as norovirus. Pregnant women, infants, the elderly, <strong>and</strong> those with weakened immune systems<br />

are at higher risk for severe infections. There were no reports of a change in the number of cases of foodrelated<br />

illnesses in <strong>Point</strong> Hope. However, health aides <strong>and</strong> other residents expressed concern about<br />

decreasing food quality, increasing spoilage, <strong>and</strong> the safety of stored whale meat <strong>and</strong> blubber. <strong>Health</strong> aides<br />

in <strong>Point</strong> Hope described a rise in cases of malnutrition <strong>and</strong> anemia, particularly in elders, <strong>and</strong> speculated<br />

that it may in part be related to availability of sea mammals (Davenport, A., 2009). Few walrus have been<br />

harvested in <strong>Point</strong> Hope since 2006 <strong>and</strong> whale harvests have been affected by ice conditions. Also, new<br />

species of salmon are being observed, contrasted by reduced harvest of other fish species like tom cod<br />

(Frankson, T., 2009) .<br />

Recommendation: A food survey would be beneficial to establish baseline conditions <strong>and</strong> food security<br />

issues, including analysis of adaptation strategies that could improve community food storage <strong>and</strong><br />

distribution. Continued research is needed on food security <strong>and</strong> safety including causes of resource decline<br />

<strong>and</strong> susceptibility to zoonotic (animal to human) diseases. <strong>Point</strong> Hope should work closely with researchers<br />

<strong>and</strong> wildlife managers to improve capacity for observation <strong>and</strong> monitoring of the Arctic Coastal Plain<br />

environment <strong>and</strong> its subsistence resources.<br />

26


RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope is experiencing a broad range of climate change effects that are increasing vulnerability <strong>and</strong><br />

exposure to injury <strong>and</strong> disease, <strong>and</strong> damaging or disrupting critical infrastructure. Figure 16 summarizes<br />

current <strong>and</strong> potential future health impacts in <strong>Point</strong> Hope, characterized in terms of likelihood of<br />

occurrence <strong>and</strong> vulnerability. The table is intended to initiate discussion about adaptation planning <strong>and</strong><br />

response.<br />

Figure 16, <strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Health</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong> Likelihood/Vulnerability Table<br />

Likelihood of Occurrence<br />

Uncertain<br />

Beneficial<br />

Improved diet from new<br />

subsistence resources<br />

(e.g. improved salmon<br />

harvest).<br />

See pg 26, Food Safety.<br />

Improved mental health<br />

due to decreased<br />

environmental stressors<br />

(e.g. warm, sunny days).<br />

See pg. 13, Mental<br />

<strong>Health</strong>.<br />

Community Vulnerability to <strong>Health</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />

Detrimental<br />

Less Vulnerable<br />

Injury or illness from extreme events<br />

(e.g. flood, storm‐surge).See pg. 11, Injury.<br />

Illness from consuming food stored in thawing<br />

ice cellar. See pg. 26, Food Safety.<br />

Increased exposure to heat /cold event injury<br />

(e.g. hypothermia or heat exhaustion)<br />

See pg. 11, Injury.<br />

Increased incidence of allergic reaction (e.g.<br />

plants, insects). See pg. 11, Injury.<br />

Increased or new infectious disease<br />

(e.g.. giardia). See pg. 12, Infectious Disease.<br />

Diminished health services from stressed public<br />

resources or damaged infrastructure<br />

(e.g.. operation of water system).<br />

See pg. 24, Water <strong>and</strong> Sanitation.<br />

Detrimental<br />

More Vulnerable<br />

Increased acute or chronic<br />

disease (e.g. infections from<br />

contaminant exposure).<br />

See pg. 12 <strong>Climate</strong> & Cancer.<br />

Increased acute or chronic<br />

disease from a less healthy diet.<br />

(e.g. substituting hot dogs for<br />

whale).<br />

See pg. 26, Food Safety.<br />

Likely<br />

Certain<br />

Shortened infectious<br />

disease season (e.g.<br />

cold/flu). See pg. 12.<br />

Improved aspects of<br />

health service.<br />

(e.g. extended season for<br />

water treatment).<br />

Increased respiratory infection<br />

(e.g.. water service interruption).<br />

See pg. 12. Infectious Disease.<br />

Injury from changes in physical environment<br />

(e.g. cold water exposure, falls through ice).<br />

See pg. 11, Injury.<br />

Impaired functioning of health infrastructure<br />

(e.g. decreased water availability/quality).<br />

See pg. 24, Water <strong>and</strong> Sanitation.<br />

Impaired mental health from<br />

environmental stressors<br />

(e.g. stress related to flood risk<br />

or changes in food availability).<br />

See pg. 13, Mental <strong>Health</strong>.<br />

Decreased food security<br />

(e.g. inadequate food storage).<br />

See pg. 26, Food Safety.<br />

Certain / Likely / Uncertain – indicates presence of (certain) or likelihood of effects to occur in the future.<br />

Beneficial ‐ indicates potential to benefit community health.<br />

Detrimental – indicates potential to harm community health.<br />

Less Vulnerable ‐ indicates that there is existing capacity to adapt <strong>and</strong> respond to the effect.<br />

More Vulnerable – indicates that there may not be adequate capacity to adapt <strong>and</strong> respond to the effect.<br />

27


Summary of <strong>Point</strong> Hope Observations <strong>and</strong> Findings<br />

1. Between 1949 <strong>and</strong> 2006, average annual temperatures in Kotzebue increased by about 3.2 o F.<br />

Annual temperatures are projected to continue rising in Kotzebue <strong>and</strong> in <strong>Point</strong> Hope, with the<br />

greatest increase occurring during winter months. In 50 years, it is projected that no winter months<br />

will have an average below 0 o F; but rather temperatures range from 5 o F to 30 o F.<br />

2. Average annual precipitation has increased in Kotzebue, <strong>and</strong> is projected to increase in <strong>Point</strong> Hope.<br />

Despite higher annual precipitation, a considerably drier summer environment is expected with<br />

dramatic effects to the physical, natural <strong>and</strong> human environment, including changes in subsistence<br />

diet, <strong>and</strong> decreased water availability for community use.<br />

3. <strong>Point</strong> Hope is at risk from floods during seasonal storm events. Sea level rise <strong>and</strong> coastal erosion is<br />

increasing this risk. Some climate models project that mean sea level will be above the level of the<br />

community within 50 to 100 years. However, soil from coastal erosion <strong>and</strong> from the banks of the<br />

Kukpuk <strong>and</strong> other rivers may change coastal dynamics <strong>and</strong> cause beach building in some areas.<br />

Increased flood risk can increase risk of injury <strong>and</strong> vulnerability to disease if critical infrastructure is<br />

damaged <strong>and</strong> services are disturbed.<br />

4. No structures or facilities at the new town site are currently considered to be at risk from erosion.<br />

However, outlying areas are at risk, including traditional food cellars, cultural sites, the air strip, <strong>and</strong><br />

7 Mile Road. Evacuation routes are vulnerable to erosion <strong>and</strong> flooding.<br />

5. During the past two decades, sea ice has been forming later in the fall <strong>and</strong> departing earlier in the<br />

spring. Thick multi‐year sea ice is being replaced by thinner first‐year ice. This results in a shorter<br />

season for over‐ice transportation <strong>and</strong> ice‐based hunting, as well as disruption of sea mammal<br />

harvest, <strong>and</strong> increased vulnerability to coastal erosion <strong>and</strong> ice‐related injury.<br />

6. Thawing permafrost is undermining food security by increasing the temperature in traditional cold<br />

cellars. Inadequate storage conditions are resulting in spoiled meat <strong>and</strong> blubber <strong>and</strong> are increasing<br />

the risk for foodborne illnesses.<br />

7. <strong>Health</strong> Aides describe a rise in cases of malnutrition <strong>and</strong> anemia, particularly in elders. This may be<br />

related to decreases in subsistence harvest <strong>and</strong> food security. Few walrus have been harvested since<br />

2006, <strong>and</strong> whale harvests have been affected by diminishing ice conditions.<br />

8. Low precipitation <strong>and</strong> high temperatures during the summer of 2007 <strong>and</strong> 2008 contributed to<br />

decreased water quality at 7 Mile Lake, the community water source. An increase in organic<br />

material in the raw water fouled filters <strong>and</strong> interrupted water making operations.<br />

9. Long‐term water availability for drinking <strong>and</strong> other uses is threatened by decreased precipitation,<br />

increased evaporation <strong>and</strong> transpiration, melting permafrost, groundwater recharge, <strong>and</strong> the<br />

potential for storm surge <strong>and</strong> salt water intrusion.<br />

28


Recommendations for <strong>Climate</strong> Adaptation Planning<br />

Local <strong>and</strong> regional government is challenged with preparing for climate‐related impacts, <strong>and</strong> the need to<br />

develop comprehensive adaptation plans. The following are 10 basic principals that are recommended<br />

for integrating climate change planning into local decision‐making. Other principals may be developed<br />

by the community as local residents engage in the planning process.<br />

1. Protection of human life <strong>and</strong> health is the top priority.<br />

2. Traditional values should guide local <strong>and</strong> regional decision making.<br />

3. Development should follow the principles of sustainability “meeting the needs of the present<br />

without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED, 1987).<br />

4. Community Adaptation Plans should identify valued local resources, such as subsistence areas,<br />

cultural sites, critical water sources, <strong>and</strong> develop plans to protect them.<br />

5. Critical ecological systems, wetl<strong>and</strong>s, <strong>and</strong> subsistence resource areas should be protected where<br />

possible.<br />

6. Considerations for climate impacts on erosion, flooding, subsistence, water availability, <strong>and</strong><br />

transportation should be incorporated into planning, <strong>and</strong> new infrastructure siting <strong>and</strong> design.<br />

7. Cost‐benefit analyses should be applied to evaluate the social <strong>and</strong> environmental costs of building<br />

<strong>and</strong> maintaining coastal protection structures.<br />

8. Phased ab<strong>and</strong>onment of at‐risk areas should be considered.<br />

9. Coastal emergencies are inevitable <strong>and</strong> disaster response <strong>and</strong> recovery capacity, including<br />

evacuation routes, emergency response plans, drills, <strong>and</strong> shelters, should be reviewed.<br />

10. Building capacity to participate in monitoring, research, <strong>and</strong> advocacy is critical to facilitate<br />

development of effective adaptation strategies.<br />

Specific Recommendations for Adaptation to <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> in <strong>Point</strong> Hope<br />

Adapting to a new climate <strong>and</strong> a changing environment will require significant investments of time,<br />

energy, <strong>and</strong> financial resources if community, social, <strong>and</strong> economic health is to be sustained. New<br />

outside sources of revenue will be needed, as well as the technical assistance of agencies <strong>and</strong><br />

institutions that have expertise in climate adaptation.<br />

Fortunately, the resources that can provide assistance to <strong>Point</strong> Hope are growing, <strong>and</strong> should continue<br />

to grow in the near future. Currently, the State of Alaska is completing a multi‐agency process to<br />

develop a climate change strategy that will help to guide statewide climate policy. Alaska will also be<br />

receiving a new federally funded <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Response Center that will be administered by the U.S<br />

Geologic Survey.<br />

29


In the North Slope Region there is extensive climate research capacity including the Global <strong>Climate</strong><br />

Research Center located in Barrow. The University of Alaska is also a global center for Arctic<br />

environment <strong>and</strong> climate research. These types of resources can assist Arctic communities as they<br />

interpret the climate changes of today, <strong>and</strong> begin to chart a course for the future.<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope will need to facilitate the adaptation process by increasing communication <strong>and</strong> cooperation<br />

with resource agencies, <strong>and</strong> by developing local capacity for monitoring <strong>and</strong> managing climate impacts.<br />

Specific actions could include:<br />

1. Developing collaborations for an integrated village‐based monitoring program that includes<br />

climate <strong>and</strong> environmental monitoring including observer programs for weather, erosion,<br />

wildlife, subsistence, permafrost, <strong>and</strong> water resources. Though the tasks are varied, much could<br />

be accomplished by a single local observer, <strong>and</strong> relevant programs are available through the<br />

National Weather Service (e.g. weather <strong>and</strong> coastlines), National Oceanographic <strong>and</strong><br />

Atmospheric Administration (e.g. marine str<strong>and</strong>ing, harmful algal blooms), U.S. Geological<br />

Survey (e.g. National Phenology Network), U.S. Fish <strong>and</strong> Wildlife (e.g. wildlife monitoring), <strong>and</strong><br />

through institutions such as University of Alaska Fairbanks (e.g. permafrost temperature<br />

measurement). Many of these community‐based monitoring programs are already ongoing<br />

throughout the Maniilaq Region.<br />

2. Sharing data with other village <strong>and</strong> regional monitoring programs, as many of the emerging<br />

threats, such as wildlife diseases, are shared throughout the region.<br />

3. A new <strong>Point</strong> Hope flood study could be undertaken that includes projections for sea level rise,<br />

coastal erosion, <strong>and</strong> flood prevention measures.<br />

4. Surveying changes along river systems (bank erosion, water conditions, navigability, <strong>and</strong> critical<br />

habitat) could also be systematically undertaken.<br />

5. Continuing flood prevention, emergency preparedness <strong>and</strong> evacuation planning efforts with the<br />

North Slope Borough should be ongoing. <strong>Point</strong> Hope is currently at risk from flooding, <strong>and</strong> the<br />

risk is rising due to extreme weather, erosion, <strong>and</strong> sea level.<br />

6. Community water shortage contingency plans should be revisited based on current flood<br />

studies. <strong>Climate</strong> models project increased vulnerability due to changes in water balance <strong>and</strong> salt<br />

water intrusion.<br />

7. Working with the North Slope Borough to explore exp<strong>and</strong>ed practices for monitoring source<br />

water conditions at 7 Mile Lake, including water level, temperature, pH, turbidity, <strong>and</strong> other<br />

measures of source water quality <strong>and</strong> quantity. Scientists from the University of Alaska have<br />

offered assistance in evaluating source water conditions, including biological analysis.<br />

8. Exploring options for improving food storage <strong>and</strong> assessing community‐wide food security. The<br />

Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> can provide assistance in exploring options for improving food<br />

storage.<br />

30


9. In the event of a wildlife die‐off, perform testing for contaminants <strong>and</strong> disease pathogens. The<br />

Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> <strong>and</strong> the Center for Disease Control can provide assistance in<br />

identifying resources for infectious disease surveillance.<br />

10. Incorporating climate‐related questions into health evaluations, including mental health. The<br />

Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong>, Maniilaq Association, <strong>and</strong> the North Slope Borough <strong>Health</strong><br />

Department can explore options for improving surveillance of climate related health effects.<br />

11. Increasing dialogue with other Arctic communities about strategies for climate adaptation.<br />

Through statewide venues such as the Alaska Forum on the Environment, <strong>and</strong> international<br />

forums such as the Inuit Circumpolar Conference <strong>and</strong> the Arctic Council’s Sustainable<br />

Development Working Group, <strong>Point</strong> Hope could engage <strong>and</strong> share in the broader Arctic climate<br />

adaptation efforts.<br />

12. Advocating for a regional climate change advisory group or developing a local advisory group.<br />

Planning for climate change will require a community‐wide approach, as different entities<br />

develop capacity to address impacts within their own professional sphere. A climate change<br />

advisory group could represent different stakeholders <strong>and</strong> provide guidance to interested<br />

support organizations.<br />

13. Establishing a community climate office to coordinate climate‐related activities <strong>and</strong> record local<br />

observations. A climate change coordinator could help facilitate discussion, advocate for needed<br />

resources, <strong>and</strong> increase observations <strong>and</strong> data collection. This person could also exp<strong>and</strong><br />

dialogue with other parts of Alaska <strong>and</strong> other Arctic regions experiencing similar climate<br />

impacts. The Environmental Protection Agency authorizes tribes that are funded by the Indian<br />

General Assistance Program (IGAP) to work on climate change activities, including hiring of staff<br />

that can focus on climate change adaptation.<br />

14. Establish a time‐line to revisit <strong>and</strong> update local climate projections. <strong>Climate</strong> models for weather<br />

(UAF’s Scenario Network for Alaska Planning), erosion (U.S. Army Corp of Engineers), sea level<br />

rise (State of Alaska, North Slope Borough), <strong>and</strong> flooding (Federal Emergency Management<br />

Agency) among others are updated regularly as new information becomes available <strong>and</strong> the<br />

climate models improve. Each agency can provide guidance for timing of updating projection<br />

data.<br />

This report raises awareness about current, emerging, <strong>and</strong> potential, future climate change affects in<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope. It is hoped that this will help citizens make informed planning decisions, within community<br />

appropriate development strategies to achieve a safe, healthy, <strong>and</strong> sustainable future for the people of<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope.<br />

For more information, contact the Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> by e‐mail, akaclimate@anthc.org or by<br />

phone (907) 729‐2464 or (907) 729‐4493.<br />

31


APPENDICIES<br />

Appendix A<br />

Additional Precipitation Data<br />

A1 Kotzebue – Mean Precipitation from 1971 to 2000 (Arctic <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center)<br />

A2 <strong>Point</strong> Hope – Projected Precipitation (Scenario Network for Alaska Planning)<br />

Appendix B<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope Participants & Collaborators<br />

Appendix C<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> Web Resources<br />

Appendix D<br />

· Photo 1: Shore ice conditions May, 2009 (M. Brubaker, 2009).<br />

· Photo 2: Snow accumulation May 1, 2009 (M. Brubaker, 2009).<br />

· Photo 3: Snow management (M. Brubaker, 2009).<br />

· Photo 4: Exterior, traditional cold storage siġŀuaqs (M. Brubaker, 2009).<br />

· Photo 5: Example of bank erosion, Wulik River near Kivalina (M. Brubaker 2009)<br />

· Photo 6: Water Operator, Andrew Frankson <strong>and</strong> filter bank (M. Brubaker, 2009)<br />

32


APPENDIX A<br />

Inches<br />

Fig. A1<br />

Source: Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center<br />

Fig. A2<br />

Source: Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning<br />

33


APPENDIX B<br />

Community Contributors – <strong>Point</strong> Hope, Alaska<br />

Name Title/Status Organization Interview Date<br />

Canyon, Caroline Representative Maniilaq Board of Directors 04‐07‐09<br />

Davenport, Amy Session II <strong>Health</strong> Aide <strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Health</strong> Clinic 04‐30‐09<br />

Dirks, Michael Assistant Operator <strong>Point</strong> Hope Water Plant 04‐30‐09<br />

Dowdy, Liz Assistant Principal Tikigaq School 04‐30‐09<br />

Frankson, Andrew Chief Operator <strong>Point</strong> Hope Water Plant 04‐30‐09<br />

Frankson, Teddy Wildlife <strong>and</strong> Parks Director Native Village of <strong>Point</strong> Hope 08‐13‐09<br />

Hunnicutt, Eldon Assistant Operator <strong>Point</strong> Hope Water Plant 04‐30‐09<br />

Hunnicutt, Willard Fire Chief <strong>Point</strong> Hope Fire Dept 04‐30‐09<br />

Koenig, Midas Assistant Fire Chief <strong>Point</strong> Hope Fire Dept. 04‐30‐09<br />

Koonook, Angie Whaling Captain’s Wife <strong>Point</strong> Hope 05‐03‐09<br />

Koonook Sr., Luke Whaling Captain Retired <strong>Point</strong> Hope 05‐02‐09<br />

Koonuk Sr., Ray Program Administrator Native Village <strong>Point</strong> Hope 04‐29‐09<br />

McCarthy, Toren Counselor Tikigaq School 05‐04‐09<br />

Mitchell, Florence Session IV <strong>Health</strong> Aide Maniilaq Association 04‐30‐09<br />

Oomittuk, Steve Mayor City of <strong>Point</strong> Hope 04‐30‐09<br />

Oktolik, Iris Environmental Coordinator Native Village <strong>Point</strong> Hope 04‐29‐09<br />

Oviok, Reggie Assistant Operator <strong>Point</strong> Hope Water Plant 04‐30‐09<br />

Schmidt, Kurt Science Teacher Tikigaq School 05‐03‐09<br />

Sharp, Scott Police Officer <strong>Point</strong> Hope Police Dept 05‐04‐09<br />

Stone, Kimberly Village Services Supervisor North Slope Borough 05‐04‐09<br />

Towksjhea, Joe Whaling Captain Retired 05‐01‐09<br />

Tuzroyluke, Lily Executive Director Native Village <strong>Point</strong> Hope 04‐29‐09<br />

Victor, Lloyd Artist <strong>Point</strong> Hope 05‐04‐09<br />

34


APPENDIX C<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> Resources<br />

Topic Resource Location<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope Profile State of Alaska Community Database http://www.commerce.state.ak.us/dca/co<br />

mmdb/CF_BLOCK.htm<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Climate</strong> Data Archive 1991‐present (temp/precipitation) http://paot.arh.noaa.gov/<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Climate</strong> Data Archive 1924‐1954 (temp/precipitation) www.wunderground.com<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope Erosion Data USACE Community Erosion Report, 2009 www.poa.usace.army.mil/AKE/Home.html<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope Permafrost UAF Permafrost Laboratory www.gi.alaska.edu/snowice/Permafrostlab/<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope Flood Data USACE Flood Hazard Database http://www.poa.usace.army.mil/en/cw/fld<br />

_haz/point_hope.htm<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope Temperature Alaska Center for <strong>Climate</strong> Assessment & www.uaf.edu/accap/<br />

Precipitation Projections Policy<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>Health</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong> Reports<br />

<strong>ANTHC</strong>, Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong>‐ www.anthc.org/chs/ces/climate/links.cfm<br />

<strong>Point</strong> Hope Capital<br />

Improvements<br />

Regional <strong>Climate</strong> Data<br />

Regional <strong>Climate</strong> Data<br />

Roads, erosion prevention, flood<br />

prevention, etc.<br />

North Slope Borough Public Works Dept.<br />

Temperature <strong>and</strong> Precipitation Data,<br />

Kotzebue 1930s‐present<br />

Center for Global <strong>Change</strong> <strong>and</strong> Arctic<br />

System Research (UAF)<br />

http://www.co.northslope.ak.us/departments/publicworks/cip<br />

m.php<br />

climate.gi.alaska.edu/<br />

www.cgc.uaf.edu/<br />

Regional <strong>Climate</strong> Data Global <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center (Barrow) www.arcticscience.org/<br />

Regional <strong>Climate</strong> Data Google Earth climate impact layers earth.google.com/intl/en/index.html<br />

Regional Weather Data Extreme Weather Watches, Warnings www.arh.noaa.gov/<br />

Advisories, National Weather Service<br />

Regional River Flood Data Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service<br />

National Weather Service<br />

http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.ph<br />

p?wfo=pafg3<br />

Regional <strong>Health</strong> Data Maniilaq Association, Kotzebue www.maniilaq.org/<br />

Regional <strong>Health</strong> Profile Alaska Native Tribal <strong>Health</strong> Consortium<br />

EpiCenter<br />

www.anthc.org/chs/epicenter/upload/Reg<br />

ional_<strong>Health</strong>_Profile_Maniilaq_0408.pdf<br />

Federal <strong>Climate</strong> Response Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Response Center http://alaska.usgs.gov/<br />

State <strong>Climate</strong> Response State of Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Strategy www.climatechange.alaska.gov/<br />

Community Based<br />

Monitoring ‐ Weather<br />

Community Based<br />

Monitoring ‐ Diet<br />

Community Based<br />

Monitoring – Seasonality<br />

Community Based<br />

Monitoring – Wildlife<br />

National Weather Service<br />

Weather/Coastline Observer Program<br />

Nutritional <strong>and</strong> Food Security Baseline<br />

Survey<br />

U.S. Geological Survey‐National Phenology<br />

Network<br />

National Oceanographic <strong>and</strong> Atmospheric<br />

Administration – Marine Str<strong>and</strong>ing<br />

www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/index.htm<br />

www.anthc.org/chs/epicenter/upload/<br />

traditional_diet.pdf<br />

www.usanpn.org/<br />

www.fakr.noaa.gov/protectedresources/st<br />

r<strong>and</strong>ings.htm<br />

35


APPENDIX D Photographs<br />

Photo 1: Shore ice conditions, May, 2009 (M. Brubaker, 2009)<br />

Photo 2: Snow accumulation May 1, 2009. (M. Brubaker, 2009)<br />

36


Photo 3: Extreme snow management (M. Brubaker, 2009)<br />

Photo 4: Exterior of thawing traditional cold storage “siġŀuaqs” (M. Brubaker, 2009)<br />

37


Photo 5: Example of river bank erosion, Wulik River near Kivalina (M. Brubaker 2009)<br />

Photo 6: Water Operator Andrew Frankson <strong>and</strong> filter bank (M. Brubaker, 2009)<br />

38


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44


We gratefully acknowledge the assistance provide by these organizations:<br />

The City of <strong>Point</strong> Hope, the Native Village of <strong>Point</strong> Hope, the Tikigaq Corporation, the Maniilaq Association,<br />

the Northwest Arctic Borough, the North Slope Borough, the Alaska Center for <strong>Climate</strong> Assessment <strong>and</strong><br />

Policy, the Alaska <strong>Climate</strong> Research Center, the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning, the University of<br />

Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, the University of Alaska Anchorage Environment <strong>and</strong> Natural<br />

Resources Institute, the National Weather Service, the National Oceanographic <strong>and</strong> Atmospheric<br />

Administration, the United States Geologic Survey, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the U.S. Centers for<br />

Disease Control Arctic Investigations Program, the Alaska Ocean Observing System, Yale University School of<br />

Forestry, the Kasitsna Bay Laboratory, the State of Alaska Department of Community Commerce <strong>and</strong><br />

Economic Development, the State of Alaska Department of Fish <strong>and</strong> Game, the Cold <strong>Climate</strong> Housing<br />

Research Center, <strong>and</strong> the State of Alaska Division of Homel<strong>and</strong> Security <strong>and</strong> Emergency Management.<br />

For more information please contact:<br />

Center for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong><br />

Alaska Native Tribal <strong>Health</strong> Consortium<br />

(907) 729‐2464<br />

Find this report <strong>and</strong> other information about climate <strong>and</strong> health at our website:<br />

http://www.anthc.org/chs/ces/climate/index.cfm<br />

Cite as: Brubaker, M., Berner, J., Bell, J., Warren, J., Rolin, A., <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Health</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong>, <strong>Point</strong><br />

Hope, Alaska. <strong>ANTHC</strong>,2009. http://www.anthc.org/chs/ces/climate/cchbulletins.cfm<br />

Funded by United States Indian <strong>Health</strong> Service Cooperative Agreement No. AN 08‐X59<br />

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