The Illinois Report 2013 - Institute of Government & Public Affairs ...

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C H A P T E R 4 Figure 1 Monthly Output, Jan. 2006 - June 2010, Indexed to Dec. 2007 = 100 102 Index Value 101 100 99 98 97 96 S-W GDP S-W GDI Average S-W GDP & GDI 95 94 January 2006 July 2006 January 2007 July 2007 January 2008 Great Recession, December 2007 – June 2009 July 2008 January 2009 July 2009 January 2010 Year Source: The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Procedure Recessions, Precarity, and Economic Insecurity The United States has had five major recessions since 1980. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the most recent—the Great Recession—began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. 1 The general contours of the Great Recession are depicted in Figure 1, which presents the Stock-Watson Average of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Great Recession of 2007-2009 was the longest and, by most accounts, one of the worst economic crises since the Great Depression. In particular, the Census Bureau determined that real median income in 2009 fell to the lowest amount since 1997, and was the largest decline in income in a single year of any recession since at least 1967. 2 The Great Recession essentially wiped out more than a decade’s worth of gains. But not all households experienced economic decline equally, as the downturn dealt more of a blow to middle-class and the low-income households. Households at the 50th percentile earned as little in 2009 as they did in 1996. The bottom 10 percent of households earned as little as they did in 5 Number of major recessions in the US since 1980. 1994. In contrast, the top 10 percent of households earned as much as they did in 2002. In other words, the highest earners were better protected than others. At the same time, the Census Bureau also indicated that 15.1 percent of Americans were in poverty, the highest level since 1993. 3 As unsettling as this might have been, the U.S. economy began its turnaround by the middle of 1 See The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Procedure at http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html. 2 Source: U.S. Census, Current Population Survey, 1960- 2011 Annual Social and Economic Supplements. 3 Source: U.S. Census, Current Population Survey, 1960- 2011 Annual Social and Economic Supplements. 42 The Illinois Report 2013
2009. Again, as Figure 1 shows, by the beginning of 2010, the GDP had already surpassed that of early 2007 before the Great Recession began. Median incomes rebounded as of September 2011. 4 Unemployment rates began to fall as of January 2010 and had “Despite these improvements in objective indicators of well-being…the levels of precarity have increased since the Great Recession officially ended.” fallen to pre-recession levels as of September 2012. And in 2011, the poverty rate in the U.S. had begun to decline for the first time in four years. 5 Despite these improvements in objective indicators of well-being, as Figure 2 shows, the levels of precarity have increased since the Great Recession officially ended. In particular, in 2006 (before the Great Recession), 12.9 percent of Americans believed the nation’s economy would get worse in the following year. During the Great Recession in 2008, 14 percent believed the nation’s economy would worsen in the following year. And by 2011, the level of pessimism and apprehension had increased, as Figure 2 Percentage Believing the Nation’s Economy Will Worsen in the Following Year % Believing Economy Will Be Worse 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 12.9% Before Recession 14.0% During Recession 21.2% After Recession Source: 2006 American National Election Survey, 2008-2009 American National Election Survey Panel Study, and the 2010-2012 American National Election Survey Evaluations of Government and Society Study. 21.2 percent believed that the nation’s economy would worsen in the following year. Similarly, Americans’ outlook concerning their family financial situation also became more pessimistic. Figure 3 shows that in 2006, 8.8 percent of Americans thought their financial situation would become worse during the following year. By 2011, it had exploded to 34.8 percent. These trends confirm precarity. They reflect economic insecurity and uncertain living and working conditions that working- and middle-class Americans experienced during the Great Recession. More over, they mirror the precarious everyday experiences of workers facing increasing changes in what they Figure 3 Percentage Believing Their Financial Situation Will Worsen in the Following Year % Believing Financial Situation Will Worsen 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 8.8% Before Recession 11.5% During Recession 34.8% After Recession Source: 2006 American National Election Survey, 2008-2009 American National Election Survey Panel Study, and the 2010-2012 American National Election Survey Evaluations of Government and Society Study. 4 See The Median Household Income Index at http://www.sentierresearch.com/Charts/HouseholdIncomeIndex_-UnemploymentRate_08_2012.jpg. 5 See Census Bureau report at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/about/overv iew/index.html Institute of Government & Public Affairs • igpa.uillinois.edu 43
Page 1 and 2: The ILLINOIS Report 2013
Page 3 and 4: Foreword The University of Illinois
Page 5 and 6: The Illinois Report 2013 Table of C
Page 7 and 8: falter or their wages fall. Herring
Page 9 and 10: Giertz After the Great Recession, W
Page 11 and 12: small step toward resolving the lon
Page 13 and 14: Dye Merriman Hudspeth Crosby And Mi
Page 15 and 16: In November, Democrats won a superm
Page 17 and 18: New revenue. Although new revenue s
Page 19 and 20: After 2014, the temporary tax incre
Page 21 and 22: for many other budgetary priorities
Page 23 and 24: Table 1 Summary Statistics for Illi
Page 25 and 26: percent. New Government Accounting
Page 27 and 28: C H A P T E R 3 T H E I L L I N O I
Page 29 and 30: $23.4 B I L L I O N Amount local go
Page 31 and 32: If the taxing district has unfetter
Page 33 and 34: extension from increasing by more t
Page 35 and 36: Figure 1 Individual Tax Payments Ar
Page 37 and 38: y the tax share effect and the red
Page 39 and 40: Figure 4 “Old” Property Tax Sta
Page 41: Herring Life at the Edge: Precarity
Page 45 and 46: Figure 4 Percentage Believing Their
Page 47 and 48: insecure. Young adults are less lik
Page 49 and 50: Abner Gordon Differential Response
Page 51 and 52: Differential response interventions
Page 53 and 54: Figure 1 Illinois DCFS Pathways to
Page 55 and 56: finishing RCTs. Ohio is doing an ex
Page 57 and 58: more positive feelings after the in
Page 59 and 60: to the extent that more families ar
Page 61 and 62: Kaestner Lo Sasso Public Policies t
Page 63 and 64: in the quality of care provided by
Page 65 and 66: consider the NFP hospital located i
Page 67 and 68: Certificate of Need Regulation Cert
Page 69 and 70: C H A P T E R 7 T H E I L L I N O I
Page 71 and 72: One component of the study was a pu
Page 73 and 74: 18 Number of U.S. House Seats that
Page 75 and 76: Figure 1 Normal Vote Distributions
Page 77 and 78: District of Columbia) that he won h
Page 79 and 80: Table 1 Who Drew the Maps? Redistri
Page 81 and 82: A B O U T I G P A T H E I L L I N O
Page 83 and 84: training, and informed consultation

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