The Illinois Report 2013 - Institute of Government & Public Affairs ...

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C H A P T E R 1 8 T H E I L L I N O I S R E P O R T 2 0 1 3
Giertz After the Great Recession, Where is the Great Recovery? By J. Fred Giertz This chapter provides a broad overview of trends in economic growth that demonstrate a slow but steady recovery from the Great Recession. The state still faces a precarious situation with stagnant job growth. Economic development, and especially job growth, will continue to be a focus for the recovery in 2013. N E E D T O K N O W • The recovery from the Great Recession has been significantly slower than recoveries from past recessions. Although Gross Domestic Product has been positive for the past three years, it has been slower than in most other recoveries. • The slow rate of recovery can be attributed in part to high unemployment. Rates during the recovery are considerably higher than rates at the depths of the 1991 and 2001 recessions. • The short-term problem is how to accelerate the recovery from the recession and decrease unemployment. The longer term and more difficult problem is how to bring about fiscal balance over the next several decades. • The picture in Illinois reflects the national situation. Economic performance did increase in 2012, but the gains have been especially slow for this stage of recovery. The Great Recession that began in late 2007 has been over officially for 3½ years. This may come as a surprise to some, since the health of the national and state economies is far from robust. Not only was the 2007-2009 recession the most severe since the Great Depression of the 1930s, it has also been followed by an extremely slow and painful recovery. The recovery has been bifurcated. On the positive side, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has been positive the past three years at slightly more than 2 percent in real terms. However, the rate of GDP growth has been considerably slower than in most other recoveries. There was a belief that sharp declines in the economy such as those experienced in late 2008 and early 2009 would be followed by a strong V-shaped recovery. This was the case after the deep recessions of the early 1980s, but it did not materialize this time. Business profits have also been strong as reflected by an approximate doubling of the stock market since the low point in early 2008. The major negative has been the continued high rate of unemployment. Late in 2012, the national unemployment rate stood at 7.7 percent with the Illinois rate about one percentage point higher. The current unemployment rates during the recovery are considerably higher than the rates at the depths of the 1991 and 2001 recessions and far higher than the “normal” 5 to 6 percent rates that we came to expect during the 20 years before the recession. Not surprisingly, real wage growth also has been sluggish. Several factors explain the unemployment puzzle. Unlike many previous recessions, productivity growth has continued strong during and after the recovery. This is good news for the long-term health of the economy, but negative for the employment outlook. Because productivity is growing at about the same rate as overall output, firms do not need to hire more workers to produce the extra output. Until the economy expands at a faster rate than productivity, unemployment will remain high. Institute of Government & Public Affairs • igpa.uillinois.edu 9
Page 1 and 2: The ILLINOIS Report 2013
Page 3 and 4: Foreword The University of Illinois
Page 5 and 6: The Illinois Report 2013 Table of C
Page 7: falter or their wages fall. Herring
Page 11 and 12: small step toward resolving the lon
Page 13 and 14: Dye Merriman Hudspeth Crosby And Mi
Page 15 and 16: In November, Democrats won a superm
Page 17 and 18: New revenue. Although new revenue s
Page 19 and 20: After 2014, the temporary tax incre
Page 21 and 22: for many other budgetary priorities
Page 23 and 24: Table 1 Summary Statistics for Illi
Page 25 and 26: percent. New Government Accounting
Page 27 and 28: C H A P T E R 3 T H E I L L I N O I
Page 29 and 30: $23.4 B I L L I O N Amount local go
Page 31 and 32: If the taxing district has unfetter
Page 33 and 34: extension from increasing by more t
Page 35 and 36: Figure 1 Individual Tax Payments Ar
Page 37 and 38: y the tax share effect and the red
Page 39 and 40: Figure 4 “Old” Property Tax Sta
Page 41 and 42: Herring Life at the Edge: Precarity
Page 43 and 44: 2009. Again, as Figure 1 shows, by
Page 45 and 46: Figure 4 Percentage Believing Their
Page 47 and 48: insecure. Young adults are less lik
Page 49 and 50: Abner Gordon Differential Response
Page 51 and 52: Differential response interventions
Page 53 and 54: Figure 1 Illinois DCFS Pathways to
Page 55 and 56: finishing RCTs. Ohio is doing an ex
Page 57 and 58: more positive feelings after the in
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to the extent that more families ar
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Kaestner Lo Sasso Public Policies t
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in the quality of care provided by
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consider the NFP hospital located i
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Certificate of Need Regulation Cert
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C H A P T E R 7 T H E I L L I N O I
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One component of the study was a pu
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18 Number of U.S. House Seats that
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Figure 1 Normal Vote Distributions
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District of Columbia) that he won h
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Table 1 Who Drew the Maps? Redistri
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A B O U T I G P A T H E I L L I N O
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training, and informed consultation
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