flex Expert System Toolkit - LPIS

Appendix D - Dealing with Uncertainty 228
and the probability that the release_valve is need_cleaning = P .
An answer, such as, P = 0.69, indicates that there is a probablity of 0.69
that the valve needs cleaning.
Advantages of Bayesian updating are:
1) technique is based on a proven statistical theorem
2) likelyhood is expressed as a propability (or odd)
3) weightings are based upon the probality of evidence
Disadvantages of Bayesian updating are:
1) the prior probability of an assertion must be known or estimated
2) dependant probabilities must be measured or estimated
3) the probability value tells us nothing about its accuracy
4) adding new rules often requires alterations to prior probablities
and weightings in other rules
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