An Heritage Approach to Aerospace Risk Based Design: With ...
An Heritage Approach to Aerospace Risk Based Design: With ...
An Heritage Approach to Aerospace Risk Based Design: With ...
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Phase 1: Above Safe Orbit<br />
• No CNA events above “safe” orbit.<br />
– Above “safe orbit”, metric is mission success<br />
• A safe orbit is a trade among orbital lifetime, orbital debris and radiation flux<br />
– 500-700 km best for OD avoidance<br />
• Orbital lifetime in tens of years (e.g. HST orbit)<br />
– 700-1000 km worst<br />
OD zone<br />
• Most “100-year<br />
orbits” fall in<br />
this zone<br />
– 1200 km would be<br />
a “desirable”<br />
disposal altitude<br />
• There is a<br />
drop-off in OD<br />
after this<br />
altitude<br />
• Very long<br />
lifetime orbits<br />
Orbital Altitude (km )<br />
1700<br />
1600<br />
1500<br />
1400<br />
1300<br />
1200<br />
1100<br />
1000<br />
900<br />
800<br />
700<br />
M a x im um S huttle Altitude<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
1.0E-06 1.0E-05 1.0E-04<br />
1700<br />
50000 rem/yr<br />
1600<br />
1500<br />
30000 rem/yr<br />
1400<br />
1300<br />
Trapped<br />
1200<br />
Pro<strong>to</strong>n<br />
Dose<br />
1100<br />
6000 rem/yr<br />
1000<br />
900<br />
800<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
0 20 40 60 80 100<br />
BN=13.6<br />
BN=27.3<br />
BN=144.2<br />
M M OD Im pact Probabiity (>1 cm /m 2/yr)<br />
Orbital Decay Tim e (Yrs)<br />
28-29 Oc<strong>to</strong>ber 2002<br />
Slide 37 of 42<br />
A <strong>Heritage</strong> <strong>Approach</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>Aerospace</strong> <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Based</strong> <strong>Design</strong>: <strong>With</strong> Application<br />
Day 1 Afternoon
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