28.11.2014 Views

Consider-then-Choose Models in Decision-Based Design ...

Consider-then-Choose Models in Decision-Based Design ...

Consider-then-Choose Models in Decision-Based Design ...

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.

TABLE 3. Statistics for 10,000 attempted solves of Eqn. (21) us<strong>in</strong>g SNOPT for various values of I. For each value of I, a s<strong>in</strong>gle set of samples<br />

of ι i ,r i ,m i ,B i and the random utility coefficients are drawn as specified <strong>in</strong> the text. Different trials for each I are started at randomly drawn <strong>in</strong>itial<br />

conditions, us<strong>in</strong>g the same set of samples.<br />

Number of Individuals (I)<br />

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50<br />

Collections of Choice Sets (#) 10 1.5 10 3 10 4.5 10 6 10 7.5 10 9 10 10.5 10 12 10 13.5 10 15.1<br />

Statistics from 100,000 solves of Eqn. (23) start<strong>in</strong>g at randomly drawn <strong>in</strong>itial conditions us<strong>in</strong>g SNOPT<br />

Feasible Collections of Choice Sets (#) 10 26 48 77 108 133 158 207 257 327<br />

Locally Optimal Solutions (#) 2 4 7 9 8 10 13 11 11 10<br />

Optimal Profits (10 4 $) 1.60 1.38 1.15 1.16 1.22 1.19 1.10 1.10 1.15 1.10<br />

“Volume” of Optimal <strong>Consider</strong>ation Set (%) 50.1 12.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 3.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.5<br />

Statistics from 10,000 attempted solves of Eqn. (21) start<strong>in</strong>g at randomly drawn <strong>in</strong>itial conditions us<strong>in</strong>g SNOPT<br />

Number of Problem Variables (#) 32 62 92 122 152 182 212 242 272 302<br />

Number of Problem Constra<strong>in</strong>ts (#) 36 71 106 141 176 211 246 281 316 351<br />

Number of Local Solutions Computed (#) 5 6 9 11 13 13 15 16 19 17<br />

Maximum Profits Computed (10 4 $) 1.60 1.38 1.15 1.16 1.22 1.19 1.10 1.10 1.15 1.08<br />

Average Compute Time (all runs) (µs) 4.1 9.3 10.9 15.4 18.6 23.8 26.6 33.3 40.8 49.5<br />

Successful Solves (%) 99.7 99.4 96.6 95.8 97.7 97.4 97.9 96.6 97.3 92.9<br />

Term<strong>in</strong>ated at a Trivial KKT Po<strong>in</strong>t (%) 0.03 0.03 0.20 0.19 0.12 0.16 0.07 0.16 0.11 0.26<br />

Solver Failed to Converge (%) 0.19 0.52 3.10 3.91 2.06 2.28 1.81 1.94 2.19 6.43<br />

[14] Kumar, D., Hoyle, C., Chen, W., Wang, N., Gomex-Levi,<br />

G., and Koppelman, F., 2009. “A Hierarchical Choice Model<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Approach for Incorporat<strong>in</strong>g Customer Preferences <strong>in</strong><br />

Vehicle Package <strong>Design</strong>”. International Journal of Product<br />

Development, 8(3), pp. 228–251.<br />

[15] MacDonald, E., Whitefoot, K., Allison, J., Papalambros,<br />

P. Y., and Gonzalez, R., 2010. “An Investigation of Susta<strong>in</strong>ability,<br />

Preference, and Profitability <strong>in</strong> <strong>Design</strong> Optimization”.<br />

In Proceed<strong>in</strong>gs of the ASME 2010 International <strong>Design</strong><br />

Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g Technical Conferences.<br />

[16] Frischknecht, B. D., Whitefoot, K., and Papalambros, P. Y.,<br />

2010. “On the Suitability of Econometric Demand <strong>Models</strong><br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>Design</strong> for Market Systems”. Journal of Mechanical<br />

<strong>Design</strong>, 132, pp. 1–11.<br />

[17] Simon, H. A., 1957. <strong>Models</strong> of Man. Wiley.<br />

[18] Coombs, C. H., 1964. A Theory of Data. Wiley.<br />

[19] Dawes, R. M., 1964. “Social selection based on multidimensional<br />

criteria”. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology,<br />

68, pp. 104–109.<br />

[20] E<strong>in</strong>horn, H. J., 1970. “The use of nonl<strong>in</strong>ear, noncompensatory<br />

models <strong>in</strong> decision mak<strong>in</strong>g”. Psychological Bullet<strong>in</strong>,<br />

73, pp. 211–230.<br />

[21] Tversky, A., 1972. “Elim<strong>in</strong>ation by Aspects: A Theory of<br />

Choice”. Psychological Review, 79(4), pp. 281–299.<br />

[22] Simon, H. A., 1986. “Rationality <strong>in</strong> psychology and economics”.<br />

The Journal of Bus<strong>in</strong>ess, 59(4), pp. S209–S224.<br />

[23] Hauser, J. R., and Wernerfelt, B., 1990. “An Evaluation<br />

Cost Model of <strong>Consider</strong>ation Sets”. Journal of Consumer<br />

Research, 16, p. 393=408.<br />

[24] Hauser, J. R., Forthcom<strong>in</strong>g. “<strong>Consider</strong>ation Set Heuristics”.<br />

Journal of Bus<strong>in</strong>ess Research.<br />

[25] Hauser, J. R., 1978. “Test<strong>in</strong>g the Accuracy, Usefulness<br />

and Significance of Probabilistic <strong>Models</strong>: An Information-<br />

Theoretic Approach”. Operations Research, 26(3),<br />

pp. 406–421.<br />

[26] Payne, J. W., 1976. “Task Complexity and Cont<strong>in</strong>gent<br />

Process<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>Decision</strong> Mak<strong>in</strong>g: An Information Search”.<br />

Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16,<br />

14 Copyright c○ 2012 by ASME

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!