1. Why using a stochastic model

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Amounts possible and Probability • What is Possible • How likely is it Score Odds Probability 2 1 in 36 3% 3 1 in 18 6% 4 1 in 12 8% 5 1 in 9 11% 6 5 in 36 14% 7 1 in 6 17% 8 5 in 36 14% 9 1 in 9 11% 10 1 in 12 8% 11 1 in 18 6% 5 12 1 in 36 3%
Approximation of the distribution function by throwing many times the dices • The higher the number of scenarios the closer we get to the theoric distribution 6
Page 1 and 2: Using Stochastic model for choosing
Page 3 and 4: Principle of insurance is to reduce
Page 5: Recoveries Premium received Paid lo
Page 9 and 10: Stochastic modeling when we are not
Page 11 and 12: ReMetrica DFA Simulation MEAN = $30
Page 13 and 14: ReMetrica DFA Simulation MEAN = $30
Page 15 and 16: Our Example to be modelled • Port
Page 17 and 18: What is a surplus • The proportio
Page 19 and 20: Windstorm • Typical features: - L
Page 21 and 22: Flood • Typical feature - Flood p
Page 23 and 24: Hazard Example Digital terrain mode
Page 25 and 26: loss Output from Natural Catastroph
Page 27 and 28: Other method: Exposure rating that
Page 29 and 30: Using the software ReMetrica, used
Page 31 and 32: Measure for profitability • Avera
Page 33 and 34: What is a good risk measure • A r
Page 35 and 36: VAR Value At Risk • Only uses one
Page 37 and 38: loss Do not think that the choice o
Page 39 and 40: Outline of the presentation 1. Why
Page 41 and 42: Introducing the concept of Ceded RO
Page 43 and 44: Creation of value • Shareholders
Page 45 and 46: Conclusion Stochastic modeling is a

1. Why using a stochastic model

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