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Table 1.1 Annual Components Of Population Change For Alaska, 1945-2004 July 1 To June 30 End of Period Population Population Change Average Annual Rate of Change Components Of Change Births Birth Rate Deaths Death Rate Natural Increase Net Migrants 1945-46 103,000 2,050 1,220 830 1946-47 117,000 14,000 12.73% 2,490 24.2 1,200 11.7 1,290 12,710 1947-48 126,000 9,000 7.41% 2,890 24.7 1,180 10.1 1,710 7,290 1948-49 132,600 6,600 5.10% 3,300 26.2 1,190 9.4 2,110 4,490 1949-50 137,100 4,500 3.34% 3,620 27.3 1,220 9.2 2,400 2,100 1950-51 160,000 22,900 15.42% 4,110 30.0 1,310 9.6 2,800 20,100 1951-52 185,500 25,500 14.76% 5,130 32.1 1,310 8.2 3,820 21,680 1952-53 193,800 8,300 4.38% 6,270 33.8 1,280 6.9 4,990 3,310 1953-54 200,100 6,300 3.20% 6,910 35.7 1,240 6.4 5,670 630 1954-55 206,500 6,400 3.15% 7,190 35.9 1,200 6.0 5,990 410 1955-56 212,400 5,900 2.82% 7,480 36.2 1,220 5.9 6,260 -360 1956-57 218,600 6,200 2.88% 7,730 36.4 1,240 5.8 6,490 -290 1957-58 220,100 1,500 0.68% 7,450 34.1 1,200 5.5 6,250 -4,750 1958-59 224,000 3,900 1.76% 6,830 31.0 1,170 5.3 5,660 -1,760 1959-60 230,400 6,400 2.82% 7,290 32.5 1,250 5.6 6,040 360 1960-61 236,700 6,300 2.70% 7,560 32.8 1,300 5.6 6,260 40 1961-62 242,800 6,100 2.54% 7,610 32.2 1,290 5.5 6,320 -220 1962-63 249,900 7,100 2.88% 7,670 31.6 1,320 5.4 6,350 750 1963-64 253,200 3,300 1.31% 7,480 29.9 1,380 5.5 6,100 -2,800 1964-65 265,200 12,000 4.63% 7,170 28.3 1,390 5.5 5,780 6,220 1965-66 271,500 6,300 2.35% 6,810 25.7 1,320 5.0 5,490 810 1966-67 277,900 6,400 2.33% 6,410 23.6 1,300 4.8 5,110 1,290 1967-68 284,900 7,000 2.49% 6,350 22.9 1,317 4.7 5,033 1,967 1968-69 294,600 9,700 3.35% 6,670 23.4 1,330 4.7 5,340 4,360 1969-70 308,500 13,900 4.61% 7,230 24.5 1,370 4.7 5,860 8,040 1970-71 319,600 11,100 3.53% 7,437 24.1 1,444 4.7 5,993 5,107 1971-72 329,800 10,200 3.14% 7,129 22.3 1,462 4.6 5,667 4,533 1972-73 336,400 6,600 1.98% 6,781 20.6 1,468 4.5 5,313 1,287 1973-74 348,100 11,700 3.42% 6,847 20.4 1,467 4.4 5,380 6,320 1974-75 384,100 36,000 9.83% 7,275 20.9 1,497 4.3 5,778 30,222 1975-76 409,800 25,700 6.47% 7,694 20.0 1,570 4.1 6,124 19,576 1976-77 418,000 8,200 1.98% 8,175 19.9 1,612 3.9 6,563 1,637 1977-78 411,600 -6,400 -1.54% 8,668 20.7 1,654 4.0 7,014 -13,414 1978-79 413,700 2,100 0.51% 9,043 22.0 1,654 4.0 7,389 -5,289 1979-80 419,800 6,100 1.46% 9,400 22.7 1,671 4.0 7,729 -1,629 1980-81 434,300 14,500 3.40% 9,912 23.6 1,738 4.1 8,174 6,326 1981-82 464,300 30,000 6.68% 10,783 24.8 1,775 4.1 9,008 20,992 1982-83 499,100 34,800 7.22% 11,728 25.3 1,862 4.0 9,866 24,934 1983-84 524,000 24,900 4.87% 12,319 24.7 1,945 3.9 10,374 14,526 1984-85 543,900 19,900 3.73% 12,727 24.3 2,033 3.9 10,694 9,206 1985-86 550,700 6,800 1.24% 12,556 23.1 2,110 3.9 10,446 -3,646 1986-87 541,300 -9,400 -1.72% 11,941 21.7 2,096 3.8 9,845 -19,245 1987-88 535,000 -6,300 -1.17% 11,483 21.2 2,073 3.8 9,410 -15,710 1988-89 538,900 3,900 0.73% 11,468 21.4 2,088 3.9 9,380 -5,480 1989-90 553,171 14,271 2.61% 11,776 21.9 2,142 4.0 9,634 4,637 1990-91 569,054 15,883 2.83% 11,798 21.3 2,225 4.0 9,573 6,310 1991-92 586,722 17,668 3.06% 11,744 20.6 2,214 3.9 9,530 8,138 1992-93 596,906 10,184 1.72% 11,347 19.3 2,477 4.2 8,870 1,314 1993-94 600,622 3,716 0.62% 10,978 18.4 2,422 4.1 8,556 -4,840 1994-95 601,581 959 0.16% 10,439 17.4 2,500 4.2 7,939 -6,980 1995-96 605,212 3,631 0.60% 10,079 16.8 2,707 4.5 7,372 -3,741 1996-97 609,655 4,443 0.73% 10,018 16.6 2,574 4.3 7,444 -3,001 1997-98 617,082 7,427 1.21% 9,924 16.3 2,642 4.3 7,282 145 1998-99 622,000 4,918 0.79% 9,864 16.0 2,609 4.2 7,255 -2,337 1999-00 627,504 5,504 0.88% 10,102 16.2 2,829 4.5 7,273 -1,769 2000-01 632,389 4,885 0.78% 9,980 15.9 2,934 4.7 7,046 -2,161 2001-02 640,841 8,452 1.33% 9,889 15.6 3,072 4.9 6,817 1,635 2002-03 648,280 7,439 1.15% 10,017 15.6 3,098 4.8 6,919 520 2003-04 * 655,435 7,155 1.10% 10,271 15.8 3,030 4.7 7,241 -86 * Provisional Source: Alaska Department of Labor & Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section, Demographics Unit Alaska Population Overview • 2003-2004 Estimates 13
out-migration in the period 1985-89 was about 45,900 persons, as compared to a net out-migration of 20,400 during the post-pipeline period. This population loss was equal to about 8.3% of the state’s peak 1986 population. This loss would be proportionally equivalent to the loss of Spokane to the state of Washington or the loss of the San Diego metropolitan statistical area to California. By 1989, net outmigration slowed enough to allow the natural increase of births over deaths to produce the first increase in population since 1986. In the final analysis, the average annual rate of population increase for Alaska during the period from July 1, 1980, to July 1, 1990, was 2.8%, whereas for the United States during that period change averaged just 0.9% per year. Between 1990-2000, the state’s population continued to increase. Population growth averaged 1.3% annually, ranging from a low increase of 0.2% between 1994-95 to a high of 3.0% between1991-92. Since 1993, it has been natural population increase, or more births than deaths, that has provided the major stimulus for growth. Alaska still has one of the highest rates of natural increase in the nation, but as in the nation as a whole, birth rates are currently falling. Because of the substantial declines in military and dependent population due to base closures and reorganizations during the mid 1990s, Alaska experienced a protracted period of net out-migration. The military movements were large enough to offset any civilian immigration during this period. During the late 1990s, the extremely good economic opportunities in the states which have traditionally provided most of Alaska’s migrants, combined with Alaska’s lack of growth in income and the continued high cost of living, dampened in-migration to the state relative to levels seen in the early 1980s and 1990s. With the national economic downturn of 1999, most movement nationwide declined. With the decline in opportunities in Alaska’s feeder states, in-migration became positive for the first time in 2001-2002 accounting for a modest growth equaling about half of our natural increase in that year. Since the 2001-2002 period, net migration has fallen, and is roughly zero for the 2003- 2004 period. Factors Which Influence Change The overall prosperity of Alaska in terms of revenues, as in the past, remains heavily dependent upon demand for its natural resources both at home and abroad. Government spending and policy decisions also have a substantial effect on the economy and population growth in Alaska. Government remains Alaska’s largest primary employer. In 2004, close to a third of Alaska’s total labor force was directly employed by the military, federal, state, and local governments. Reductions in federal agency spending, state operating revenues, and loss of revenue sharing to local communities are all part of a trend that has slowed Alaska’s economy and overall population growth in the past. The largest positive growth sector in employment since 1990 has been in the service sector. Major expenditures on privately funded, federal- and state-sponsored construction, while beneficial to the state’s economy in the short term, generally have caused only a temporary surge in population. Rapid expansion has historically been followed by economic downturn. Alaska’s population has increased six-fold since 1946. Despite fluctuations in population growth in Alaska, the overall trend during the post-World War II period has been one of positive growth. While Alaska is currently attempting to achieve a more stable and balanced type of economic growth, its economy is still largely dependent on natural resources, especially oil and gas. The physical resources of this state will continue to be unique. Demand to extract Alaska minerals such as oil, gas, gold, and coal should remain strong. Fishing and forestry will continue to play a modest and probably declining role in Alaska’s future. Tourism continues strong and brings demands for increased access to the scenic beauty of the state. Beyond the economic considerations, the intangible quality of Alaska as a place of wilderness, beauty, and special way of life will continue to attract some migrants to the last frontier. Components of Change Population change is made up of natural increase (births minus deaths) and migration as shown in Table 1.1 and Figure 1.2. Natural increase is the fairly stable component of population change. Death rates change very slowly, and while current fertility depends on a variety of factors, the general birth trend does not change direction quickly. Migration is the unstable component of population change in the state, often changing dramatically from one year to the next. Births and Deaths Nationwide fertility rates declined from the 1970s to mid- 1980s. In the latter 1980s this trend reversed. From a nationwide low in 1987 of 1.8 children per family, fertility increased to a 1990 high of 2.1 children per family. This increase was primarily the result of increased fertility for older baby boom women who had postponed marriage and childbearing. Alaska’s fertility rate has always been well above the national average. In 1990, Alaska had one of the higher levels of fertility among the states, with 2.6 children per family. Decade trends in crude birth rates for Alaska, its boroughs and census areas can be seen in Table 2.3. Following a brief increase in birth rates around 1990, birth rates have declined somewhat in Alaska and nationwide. In 2004, Alaska’s fertility is about 2.3 children per family, up slightly from 2.2 in 2002. Between July 1, 2003 and July 1, 2004 an estimated 10,271 persons were born in Alaska and an estimated 3,030 persons died, a net natural increase of 7,241 persons. This translated into a growth rate of 1.1% as a result of natural increase. Births were equivalent to about 1.6% of the population. Approximately 0.5% of the population in Alaska died. 14 Alaska Population Overview • 2003-2004 Estimates
Page 2 and 3: Alaska Population Overview 2003-200
Page 4 and 5: Table of Contents Alaska Population
Page 6 and 7: 63 Figure 2.6 Average Annual Alaska
Page 8 and 9: Preface Alaska Population Overview
Page 10 and 11: upon natural resources and wildlife
Page 12 and 13: Chapter 1 Alaska State Population I
Page 16 and 17: Most of the growth in Native Americ
Page 18 and 19: flows statewide each year. Flows to
Page 20 and 21: Table 1.3 (continued) 2003 -2004 Av
Page 22 and 23: Figure 1.5 Alaska population by Age
Page 24 and 25: Table 1.5 (continued) Alaska as % o
Page 26 and 27: depression and WWII created a serie
Page 28 and 29: Table 1.6 (continued) % of Populati
Page 30 and 31: Table 1.7 (continued) % of Populati
Page 32 and 33: Dependency Dependency ratios show h
Page 34 and 35: Table 1.9 (continued) Alaska Popula
Page 36 and 37: Table 1.10 (continued) Alaska Popul
Page 54 and 55: Table 1.20 Households by Type, 1990
Page 56 and 57: in 2004 were almost identical in th
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Page 60 and 61: 1985 and 1990, the state only grew
Page 62 and 63: community. Logging in Yakutat and t
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density in this area would be much
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Each decade, the U.S. census asks a
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tion, enter military service, seek
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and declines in fishing. Aleutians
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west Arctic Borough, Denali Borough
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Table 2.1 (continued) Population of
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Table 2.2 (continued) Household Pop
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Table 2.3 (continued) Characteristi
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Table 2.4 (continued) Alaska Popula
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Table 2.8 Personal Income by Econom
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-0.5%). Internal distribution may n
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Growth in Total Personal Income adj
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Legislative Districts There are 40
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Table 3.2 Military and Dependent Po
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Other districts listed have been af
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Table 3.4 (continued) Population by
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Table 3.5 (continued) Population Es
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Chapter 4 Alaska Places Introductio
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Table 4.2 The 19 Cities with more t
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Alaska Boroughs Alaska Boroughs and
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Aleutians West Census Area Aleutian
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Bethel Census Area Bethel Census Ar
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Bristol Bay Borough Bristol Bay Bor
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Dillingham Census Area Koliganek To
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Fairbanks North Star Borough (conti
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Juneau City and Borough 1 1 Gilkey
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Kenai Peninsula Borough (continued)
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Kodiak Island Borough Aleneva Karlu
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Lake and Peninsula Borough (continu
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Matanuska-Susitna Borough (continue
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North Slope Borough Barrow Wainwrig
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Prince of Wales-Outer Ketchikan Cen
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Sitka City and Borough 1 2 Sitka Si
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Southeast Fairbanks Census Area Eag
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Valdez-Cordova Census Area Denali H
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Wade Hampton Census Area Emmonak Al
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Wrangell-Petersburg Census Area Kak
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Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area Arctic Vi
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Table 4.4 Alphabetical Listing of A
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Table 4.4 (continued) Alphabetical
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any other people in a building and
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