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depression and WWII created a series of cohorts that is
widely known as the “baby boom”. These larger groups
of children strained schools at every level as they passed,
experienced reduced job opportunities as they entered the
labor market, and will strain the social security system and
medical systems as they grow old. Cohorts in local areas
are shaped over their lifetime by death and migration. They
are increased by forces encouraging in-migration. They are
reduced by forces of death and out-migration.
Specific Age Groups
The growth trends for various age groups often differ
sharply from those of the population as a whole. These differences
in age groups are found in Table 1.19 and Figures
1.8 and 1.9.
While Alaska’s total population increased 18.5% between
July 1, 1990 and July 1, 2004, children under the age of five
declined 5.9%, from 55,859 to 52,537. This age group currently
makes up 8.0% of the state’s population. From a high
in 1993, the number of young children steadily declined to a
low of 48,525 in 2000, rising slowly but steadily over the last
four years. The number in this age group is extremely volatile,
depending on economic conditions. As a result, children
under five are generally unreliable as a planning indicator
for future elementary school facilities because economic
booms and busts can quickly change the size of this age
group. Cutbacks in military personnel in the mid 1990s and
fewer young adults as a result of low birth rates nationwide
in the 1970s and low in-migration have acted to reduce the
number of young children in the state.
The population aged five to 13 are the children of elementary
and junior high school age. This group has shrunk by
5.5% since its peak of 101,208 in 1998. Children age 14 in
2004 represent the peak of the “echo boom”, that is, they
are the children of the last of the baby boomers. Peak baby
boomers born in the late 1950s and 1960s tended to get
married later and postpone childbearing. Since the largest
cohort of “echo boom” kids is just entering high school, the
current pressures on middle and high school capacities will
ease, and decline in the near future.
The number of high school-age children have tended to be
more stable over the years. Alaska’s adult population has
traditionally been too young to have large numbers of high
school-age children. However, their numbers have increased
steadily since 1990. In 2004, there were 45,353 youth aged
14-17 in Alaska, up from 30,356 in 1990. This age group
has increased from 5.5% of the state’s population in 1990
to 6.9% in 2004, the highest proportion since the 1970s. In
general, teenagers are less subject to changes in migration
flows than younger age groups because their parents are
older and generally have more stable jobs. Cutbacks in longstanding
oil and government jobs, however, could negatively
impact this group. Except for rapid growth areas like Mat-Su,
the number of high school students should begin to stabilize
and decline in the next year of so.
The age group 18-24 is most subject to increases and
declines in economic conditions. While nationwide this
group was declining, in Alaska it reached a high of 70,175
in 1984. Since 1984, this group decreased to 56,189 by
1990, a loss of 20% in six years. In 1995, this age group
hit a low point at 47,656. Cuts in the military population
have also influenced the downward trend in this age group.
This group has seen the passing of children born following
the end of the baby boom in the early 1970s when fertility
hit an all time low. While some have mistakenly interpreted
the decline in the size of this age group to out-migration
from Alaska, the trend in the size of this age group is in
fact primarily a result of the passing of the “baby bust”
cohorts through their early 20s. Since 1995, this group has
increased steadily with the passing of the leading edge of
the “echo boom” into these ages. The small size of this
segment of population is a portion of the reason for the
relatively low unemployment rates currently being seen
in Alaska and nationwide. The decreased supply of labor
provided by this smaller generation should create a unique
opportunity to increase the employability of persons not
currently in the labor force or employed, so long as demand
stays firm.
Figure 1.7
Alaska and U.S. Population by Age and Sex
2004 (percent distribution)
Age
95+
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
0.8
United States
Alaska
0.6 0.4
Male
0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Percent Female
Source: Alaska Department of Labor & Workforce Development, Research and
Analysis Section, Demographics Unit
Alaska Population Overview • 2003-2004 Estimates 25