Automotive Insights 01.2013 - Roland Berger

over the coming years. While IHS projects only slight
growth for production volumes in Europe (from 15.7
million units in 2012 to 17.9 million in 2017, excluding
CIS countries and Turkey), the respective volumes
produced overseas will likely grow considerably over the
same period (from 65.6 million units in 2012 to 82.6
million in 2017). China is expected to account for about
55% of this incremental volume. India and Brazil will be
the other major growth markets.
At the same time, we expect manufacturers to
further enforce their local sourcing requirements.
For more and more product segments, suppliers will
be considered for successor business on overseas
production only if they provide local manufacturing and
engineering support capabilities. The benefit from the
increased volume in Asia that has recently loaded the
manufacturing capacities of European suppliers with
volumes for export will soon come to an end.
Suppliers are thus facing ever-increasing capital needs
from two angles: They will have to open up new
facilities or expand existing ones outside of their home
regions. This will be a challenge particularly for small
and mid-sized tier 2/3 suppliers that, unlike large tier
1 suppliers, are not yet present in all major global regions.
Aside from the principal investment in new facilities,
the expansion of the manufacturing network will also
increase financing requirements on an ongoing basis.
This is due to inter-plant logistics potentially becoming
more complex, and a higher total inventory being
required to manage a larger number of facilities in the
network (though not necessarily corresponding with a
higher total business volume).
Second, the constantly increasing technological
complexity of vehicles and vehicle parts shows no signs
of slowing down. Tight CO2 reduction targets, the
long-term electrification of the powertrain, new driver
26 Automotive Insights | 01.2013