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share of multi-storey housing would grow<br />
while the core municipalities’ would shrink.<br />
But the last three years have seen the opposite.<br />
The core’s share has held steady while<br />
West Shore’s has steadily declined.<br />
Moreover, Urban Futures noted that its projections<br />
assumed there would be no substantial<br />
changes to any of the municipalities’ policies<br />
around density. The numbers it came up with<br />
didn’t take into account the possibility that,<br />
over time, the City of Victoria could adopt new<br />
policies that would encourage and expedite<br />
dense residential development in and around<br />
the Downtown core. Urban Futures projection<br />
didn’t foresee someone like recently-elected<br />
councillor Ben Isitt coming along and changing<br />
the City’s direction. Isitt has said he will work<br />
to increase the Downtown residential population<br />
and thereby shift future population growth<br />
away from the western periphery of the CRD.<br />
So there are two competing visions emerging<br />
about how to mitigate climate change in terms<br />
of how the region develops.<br />
On one hand you have the tail-wagging-thedog<br />
vision that sprawl in Langford and Colwood<br />
is inevitable, and so transportation infrastructure<br />
should be reshaped in the hope of reducing<br />
the accompanying traffic congestion. The LRT<br />
proposal, which depends heavily on future<br />
growth in Langford and Colwood to make it<br />
viable, plays right into that vision. You accept<br />
sprawl’s deforestation and destruction of rare<br />
ecosystems, the loss of farmland and the immense<br />
emissions price tag of the LRT itself, and hope<br />
that, on balance, you are reducing emissions.<br />
On the other hand you have the dog-waggingthe-tail<br />
vision: the core municipalities develop<br />
new policies that encourage and expedite<br />
denser residential development, which would<br />
then out-compete the West Shore for the lion’s<br />
share of future population growth in the region.<br />
That vision doesn’t need a billion-dollar LRT<br />
to Langford. That vision understands the<br />
proposed LRT would only encourage urban<br />
sprawl and thereby defeat the long-term goal<br />
of reducing carbon emissions by shortening<br />
distances travelled. It encourages denser, more<br />
energy-efficient forms of housing, and avoids<br />
deforestation, destruction of wetlands and<br />
loss of farmland. And more people living closer<br />
to Downtown would strengthen the economic<br />
prospects of businesses there.<br />
Currently, most regional politicians seem to<br />
prefer that the tail wags the dog.<br />
David Broadland is the publisher of <strong>Focus</strong> <strong>Magazine</strong>.<br />
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www.focusonline.ca • January <strong>2012</strong><br />
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