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Simulation with Arena

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The Fit Menu<br />

• Fits distributions, does goodness-of-fit tests<br />

• Fit a specific distribution form<br />

– Plots density over histogram for visual “test”<br />

– Gives exact expression to Copy and Paste (Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V)<br />

over into simulation model<br />

– May include “offset” depending on distribution<br />

– Gives results of goodness-of-fit tests<br />

• Chi square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests<br />

• Most important part: p-value, always between 0 and 1:<br />

Probability of getting a data set that’s more inconsistent <strong>with</strong> the<br />

fitted distribution than the data set you actually have, if the the fitted<br />

distribution is truly “the truth”<br />

“Small” p (< 0.05 or so): poor fit (try again or give up)<br />

<strong>Simulation</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>Arena</strong> — Chapter 5 — Modeling Basic Operations and Inputs 5 - 46

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