Simulation with Arena

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The Fit Menu • Fits distributions, does goodness-of-fit tests • Fit a specific distribution form – Plots density over histogram for visual “test” – Gives exact expression to Copy and Paste (Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V) over into simulation model – May include “offset” depending on distribution – Gives results of goodness-of-fit tests • Chi square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests • Most important part: p-value, always between 0 and 1: Probability of getting a data set that’s more inconsistent with the fitted distribution than the data set you actually have, if the the fitted distribution is truly “the truth” “Small” p (< 0.05 or so): poor fit (try again or give up) Simulation with Arena — Chapter 5 — Modeling Basic Operations and Inputs 5 - 46
The Fit Menu (cont’d.) • Fit all Arena’s (theoretical) distributions at once – Fit/Fit All menu or – Returns the minimum square-error distribution • Square error = sum of squared discrepancies between histogram frequencies and fitted-distribution frequencies • Can depend on histogram intervals chosen: different intervals can lead to different “best” distribution – Could still be a poor fit, though (check p value) – To see all distributions, ranked: Window/Fit All Summary or Simulation with Arena — Chapter 5 — Modeling Basic Operations and Inputs 5 - 47
Page 1 and 2: Chapter 5 Modeling Basic Operations
Page 3 and 4: What We’ll Do ... (cont’d.) •
Page 5 and 6: Part A • Interarrivals: expo (5)
Page 7 and 8: Run Conditions, Output, Animation
Page 9 and 10: Stations • Up to now: no (zero) t
Page 11 and 12: Roughing Out the Model • New mode
Page 13 and 14: Part B Arrive Module • Same as fo
Page 15 and 16: • Main dialog Sealer Inspect Modu
Page 17 and 18: Depart Modules • Three separate m
Page 19 and 20: Animated Routes • Paths to displa
Page 21 and 22: Viewing the Results • When done,
Page 23 and 24: Schedules • Vary Capacity (number
Page 25 and 26: Ignore/Wait/Preempt duration of sch
Page 27 and 28: Resource Failures • All units of
Page 29 and 30: The Statistics Module • Five diff
Page 31 and 32: The Output Analyzer • Separate ap
Page 33 and 34: Enhancing the Animation (Model 5.3)
Page 35 and 36: Changing the Entity Pictures • Di
Page 37 and 38: Changing Resource Pictures • Real
Page 39 and 40: Input Analysis: Specifying Model Pa
Page 41 and 42: Collecting Data • Generally hard,
Page 43 and 44: Fitting Distributions via the Arena
Page 45: Data Files for the Input Analyzer
Page 49 and 50: Some Issues in Fitting Input Distri
Page 51 and 52: Nonstationary Arrival Processes •
Page 53: Multivariate and Correlated Input D

Simulation with Arena

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