Learning from Overseas - Australian Fabian Society
Learning from Overseas - Australian Fabian Society
Learning from Overseas - Australian Fabian Society
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<strong>Learning</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>Overseas</strong><br />
Barry McGaw<br />
Director, Melbourne Education Research Institute<br />
University of Melbourne<br />
Former Director for Education<br />
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
New Directions for <strong>Australian</strong> Education<br />
<strong>Australian</strong> <strong>Fabian</strong>s’ Conference<br />
Melbourne, 25 August 2007<br />
1
How good is <strong>Australian</strong> school education<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
2
Mean reading results (PISA 2000)<br />
600<br />
550<br />
Australia 4 th but tied<br />
for 2 nd with 8 others<br />
among 42 countries.<br />
500<br />
450<br />
400<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
350<br />
300<br />
Finland<br />
New Zealand<br />
Australia<br />
Ireland<br />
Hong Kong-China<br />
Canada<br />
Korea<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Japan<br />
Sweden<br />
Austria<br />
Belgium<br />
Iceland<br />
Norway<br />
France<br />
United States<br />
Denmark<br />
Switzerland<br />
Spain<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Italy<br />
Germany<br />
Liechtenstein<br />
Hungary<br />
Poland<br />
Greece<br />
Portugal<br />
Russian Federation<br />
Latvia<br />
Israel<br />
Luxembourg<br />
Thailand<br />
Bulgaria<br />
Romania<br />
Mexico<br />
Argentina<br />
OECD (2003), Literacy skills for the world of tomorrow: Further results <strong>from</strong> PISA 2000, Fig. 2.5, p.76.<br />
Chile<br />
Brazil<br />
FYR Macedonia<br />
Indonesia<br />
Albania<br />
Peru<br />
3
Mean mathematics results (PISA 2003)<br />
600<br />
550<br />
Australia 11 th but tied<br />
for 5 th with 8 others<br />
among 40 countries.<br />
500<br />
450<br />
400<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
350<br />
300<br />
Hong Kong-China<br />
Finland<br />
Korea<br />
Netherlands<br />
Liechtenstein<br />
Japan<br />
Canada<br />
Belgium<br />
Macao-China<br />
Switzerland<br />
New Zealand<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Australia<br />
Iceland<br />
France<br />
Denmark<br />
Sweden<br />
Austria<br />
Germany<br />
Ireland<br />
Slovak Republic<br />
Norway<br />
Luxembourg<br />
Poland<br />
Hungary<br />
Spain<br />
Latvia<br />
United States<br />
Russian Federation<br />
OECD (2004), <strong>Learning</strong> for tomorrow’s world: first results <strong>from</strong> PISA 2003, Fig. 2.16b, p.92.<br />
Portugal<br />
Italy<br />
Greece<br />
Serbia<br />
Turkey<br />
Uruguay<br />
Thailand<br />
Mexico<br />
Indonesia<br />
Tunisia<br />
Brazil<br />
4
Mean science results (PISA 2003)<br />
600<br />
550<br />
Australia 6 th but tied<br />
for 5 th with 7 others<br />
among 40 countries.<br />
500<br />
450<br />
400<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
350<br />
300<br />
Finland<br />
Japan<br />
Hong Kong-China<br />
Liechtenstein<br />
Australia<br />
Korea<br />
Macao-China<br />
Netherlands<br />
Czech Republic<br />
New Zealand<br />
Canada<br />
France<br />
Switzerland<br />
Belgium<br />
Sweden<br />
Ireland<br />
Hungary<br />
Poland<br />
Germany<br />
Slovak Republic<br />
Iceland<br />
United States<br />
Austria<br />
Russian Federation<br />
OECD (2004), <strong>Learning</strong> for tomorrow’s world: first results <strong>from</strong> PISA 2003, Fig. 6.10, p.294.<br />
Latvia<br />
Spain<br />
Italy<br />
Norway<br />
Luxembourg<br />
Greece<br />
Denmark<br />
Portugal<br />
Uruguay<br />
Serbia<br />
Turkey<br />
Thailand<br />
Mexico<br />
Indonesia<br />
Brazil<br />
Tunisia<br />
5
Mean problem solving results (PISA 2003)<br />
600<br />
550<br />
Australia 7 th but tied<br />
for 5 th with 7 others<br />
among 40 countries.<br />
500<br />
450<br />
400<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
350<br />
300<br />
Korea<br />
Hong Kong-China<br />
Finland<br />
Japan<br />
New Zealand<br />
Macao-China<br />
Australia<br />
Liechtenstein<br />
Canada<br />
Belgium<br />
Switzerland<br />
France<br />
Netherlands<br />
Denmark<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Germany<br />
Sweden<br />
Austria<br />
Iceland<br />
Hungary<br />
Luxembourg<br />
Slovak Republic<br />
Ireland<br />
Norway<br />
Latvia<br />
Spain<br />
Russian Federation<br />
United States<br />
OECD (2004), Problem solving for tomorrow’s world: first measures <strong>from</strong> PISA 2003, Fig. 2.4, p.42.<br />
Poland<br />
Portugal<br />
Italy<br />
Greece<br />
Thailand<br />
Serbia<br />
Uruguay<br />
Turkey<br />
Mexico<br />
Brazil<br />
Indonesia<br />
Tunisia<br />
6
Behind<br />
Rank<br />
<strong>Australian</strong> performance in OECD PISA<br />
Problem solving<br />
Reading Mathematics Science<br />
2 nd 5 th<br />
5 th<br />
PISA 2000 PISA 2003<br />
Hong Kong-China<br />
PISA 2003<br />
Finland<br />
PISA 2003<br />
Korea<br />
Finland<br />
Finland<br />
Japan Hong Kong-China<br />
Korea Hong Kong-China Finland<br />
Netherlands Korea<br />
Japan<br />
5 th<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
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Tied<br />
with<br />
Canada<br />
New Zealand<br />
Australia<br />
Ireland<br />
Hong Kong-China<br />
Korea<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Japan<br />
Liechtenstein<br />
Japan<br />
Canada<br />
Belgium<br />
Macao-China<br />
Switzerland<br />
Australia<br />
New Zealand<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Liechtenstein<br />
Australia<br />
Macao-China<br />
Netherlands<br />
Czech Republic<br />
New Zealand<br />
Canada<br />
Switzerland<br />
New Zealand<br />
Macao-China<br />
Liechtenstein<br />
Australia<br />
Canada<br />
Belgium<br />
Switzerland<br />
Netherlands<br />
Sources: OECD (2001) Knowledge and skills for life: First results <strong>from</strong> PISA 2000, Fig. 2.4, p.53.<br />
OECD (2004), <strong>Learning</strong> for tomorrow’s world: First results <strong>from</strong> PISA 2003, Fig 2.16b, p.92.<br />
OECD (2004), Problem solving for tomorrow’s world: First measures of cross-curricular competencies <strong>from</strong><br />
PISA 2003, Fig 2.4, p.42.<br />
7
How fair is <strong>Australian</strong> school education<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
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8
Judging fairness by spread of performances<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
9
0%<br />
10%<br />
20%<br />
30%<br />
% at each reading proficiency level: PISA 2000<br />
Finland<br />
Canada<br />
New Zealand<br />
Level 5<br />
Australia<br />
Ireland<br />
Hong Kong-China<br />
Korea<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Japan<br />
Sweden<br />
Austria<br />
Belgium<br />
Iceland<br />
France<br />
Norway<br />
United States<br />
Denmark<br />
Switzerland<br />
Spain<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Italy<br />
Germany<br />
Liechtenstein<br />
Hungary<br />
Poland<br />
Greece<br />
Portugal<br />
Russian Federation<br />
Latvia<br />
Israel<br />
Luxembourg<br />
Thailand<br />
Bulgaria<br />
Romania<br />
Mexico<br />
Argentina<br />
Chile<br />
Brazil<br />
FYR Macedonia<br />
Indonesia<br />
Albania<br />
Peru<br />
Level 4<br />
40%<br />
50%<br />
Level 3<br />
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60%<br />
Level 2<br />
70%<br />
80%<br />
90%<br />
100%<br />
Source: OECD, UNESCO (2003) Literacy skills for the world of tomorrow, Table 2.1a, p.274<br />
Level 1<br />
Below<br />
Level 1<br />
10
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80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
-10<br />
-20<br />
-30<br />
-40<br />
-50<br />
-60<br />
-70<br />
-80<br />
-90<br />
-100<br />
Finland<br />
% at each reading proficiency level: PISA 2000<br />
Level 5<br />
Canada<br />
New Zealand<br />
Australia<br />
Ireland<br />
Hong Kong-China<br />
Korea<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Level 4<br />
Japan<br />
Sweden<br />
Austria<br />
Australia’s mean is high because of its relatively<br />
high percentage of very high-performing students.<br />
Belgium<br />
Iceland<br />
France<br />
Norway<br />
Level 3<br />
Australia has more low performing<br />
students than other high-performing<br />
countries around it.<br />
United States<br />
Denmark<br />
Switzerland<br />
Spain<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Italy<br />
Germany<br />
Liechtenstein<br />
Hungary<br />
Level 2<br />
Source: OECD, UNESCO (2003) Literacy skills for the world of tomorrow, Table 2.1a, p.274<br />
Poland<br />
Greece<br />
Portugal<br />
Russian Federation<br />
Latvia<br />
Israel<br />
Luxembourg<br />
Thailand<br />
Bulgaria<br />
Level 1<br />
Romania<br />
Mexico<br />
Argentina<br />
Chile<br />
Brazil<br />
FYR Macedonia<br />
Below<br />
Level 1<br />
Indonesia<br />
Albania<br />
Peru<br />
11
% at each mathematics proficiency level: PISA 2003<br />
80<br />
70<br />
Level 6<br />
60<br />
50<br />
Level 5<br />
40<br />
30<br />
Level 4<br />
20<br />
10<br />
Level 3<br />
0<br />
-10<br />
-20<br />
Level 2<br />
-30<br />
-40<br />
Level 1<br />
-50<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
-60<br />
-70<br />
-80<br />
-90<br />
-100<br />
Hong Kong-China<br />
Finland<br />
Korea<br />
Netherlands<br />
Liechtenstein<br />
Japan<br />
Canada<br />
Belgium<br />
Macao-China<br />
Switzerland<br />
Australia<br />
New Zealand<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Iceland<br />
Denmark<br />
Australia’s percentage of low<br />
performing students is similar to<br />
those in other relatively high<br />
performing countries around it.<br />
OECD (2004), <strong>Learning</strong> for tomorrow’s world: First results <strong>from</strong> PISA 2003, Table 2.5a, p.354.<br />
France<br />
Sweden<br />
Austria<br />
Germany<br />
Ireland<br />
Slovak Republic<br />
Norway<br />
Luxembourg<br />
Poland<br />
Hungary<br />
Spain<br />
Latvia<br />
United States<br />
Russian Federation<br />
Portugal<br />
Italy<br />
Greece<br />
Serbia<br />
Turkey<br />
Uruguay<br />
Thailand<br />
Mexico<br />
Below<br />
Level 1<br />
Indonesia<br />
Tunisia<br />
Brazil<br />
12
Judging fairness by impact of students’<br />
social backgrounds and their performances<br />
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ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
13
Social background & reading literacy (PISA 2000)<br />
High<br />
There are high-performing<br />
disadvantaged students.<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
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Reading literacy<br />
Low<br />
Social background and<br />
performance are reasonably<br />
strongly related.<br />
PISA Index of social background<br />
Source: OECD (2001) Knowledge and skills for life, Appendix B1, Table 8.1, p.308<br />
There are low-performing<br />
advantaged students.<br />
Social<br />
Advantage<br />
14
Social background & reading literacy (PISA 2000)<br />
High<br />
600<br />
550<br />
Finland<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
Reading literacy<br />
Low<br />
500<br />
450<br />
400<br />
350<br />
300<br />
Canada<br />
Australia<br />
Germany<br />
This gap is in the order<br />
of 3 years of schooling.<br />
Steeper slope = less equitable results<br />
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2<br />
PISA Index of social background<br />
Source: OECD (2001) Knowledge and skills for life, Appendix B1, Table 8.1, p.308<br />
Social<br />
Advantage<br />
15
Social equity & reading literacy (PISA 2000)<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
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R e a d in g lite ra c y<br />
550<br />
540<br />
530<br />
520<br />
510<br />
500<br />
490<br />
480<br />
470<br />
460<br />
450<br />
440<br />
430<br />
420<br />
High quality<br />
Low equity<br />
Low quality<br />
Low equity<br />
Germany<br />
Hungary<br />
New Zealand<br />
Australia<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Belgium<br />
France<br />
United States<br />
Switzerland<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Luxembourg<br />
Austria<br />
Norway<br />
Denmark<br />
Canada<br />
Ireland<br />
Sweden<br />
Poland<br />
Greece<br />
Portugal<br />
Mexico<br />
Spain<br />
Italy<br />
Finland<br />
Iceland<br />
Korea<br />
Japan<br />
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25<br />
Social equity (OECD regression slope - country regression slope)<br />
Source: OECD (2001) Knowledge and skills for life, Table 2.3a, p.253.<br />
High quality<br />
High equity<br />
Low quality<br />
High equity<br />
16
Social equity & mathematics (PISA 2003)<br />
M a t e h m a t i c s<br />
550<br />
525<br />
500<br />
475<br />
450<br />
High quality<br />
Low equity<br />
Belgium<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Slovak Republic<br />
Hungary<br />
Netherlands Korea<br />
Japan<br />
Switzerland<br />
Australia<br />
New Zealand<br />
Denmark France<br />
Sweden<br />
Germany Austria<br />
Poland<br />
Norway<br />
United States<br />
Ireland<br />
Greece<br />
Canada<br />
Luxembourg<br />
Spain<br />
Italy<br />
Finland<br />
High quality<br />
High equity<br />
Portugal<br />
Iceland<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
425<br />
400<br />
375<br />
Low quality<br />
Low equity<br />
Turkey<br />
Mexico<br />
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15<br />
Social equity (OECD regression slope - country regression slope<br />
Source: OECD (2004) <strong>Learning</strong> for tomorrow’s world: First results <strong>from</strong> PISA 2003, Table 4.3a, p.397.<br />
Low quality<br />
High equity<br />
17
Judging fairness by impact of students’<br />
social backgrounds on school differences<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
18
Variation in reading performance (PISA 2000)<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
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110<br />
100<br />
90<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
-10<br />
-20<br />
-30<br />
-40<br />
-50<br />
-60<br />
-70<br />
-80<br />
Variation of performance<br />
within schools<br />
Belgium<br />
Germany<br />
Hungary<br />
Austria<br />
Poland<br />
Greece<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Italy<br />
Switzerland<br />
Mexico<br />
Portugal<br />
United States<br />
Luxembourg<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Australia<br />
New Zealand<br />
Korea<br />
Variation of performance<br />
between schools<br />
OECD, UNESCO (2003), Literacy skills for tomorrow’s world: further results <strong>from</strong> PISA 2000, Table 7.1a, p.357.<br />
Denmark<br />
Canada<br />
Ireland<br />
Spain<br />
Norway<br />
Finland<br />
Sweden<br />
Iceland<br />
19
Variation in reading performance<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
110<br />
100<br />
90<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
-10<br />
-20<br />
-30<br />
-40<br />
-50<br />
-60<br />
-70<br />
-80<br />
Variation of performance<br />
within schools<br />
Belgium<br />
Germany<br />
Hungary<br />
Austria<br />
Poland<br />
Greece<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Italy<br />
Switzerland<br />
Mexico<br />
Portugal<br />
United States<br />
Luxembourg<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Australia<br />
New Zealand<br />
Korea<br />
Denmark<br />
Australia<br />
68%<br />
32%<br />
Variation of performance<br />
between schools<br />
Variation explained by social background of students<br />
Variation not explained by social background<br />
OECD, UNESCO (2003), Literacy skills for tomorrow’s world: further results <strong>from</strong> PISA 2000, Table 7.1a, p.357.<br />
Canada<br />
Ireland<br />
Spain<br />
Norway<br />
Finland<br />
Sweden<br />
Iceland<br />
20
Too many drop out early in Australia.<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
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21
Upper secondary education attainment (%)<br />
100<br />
90<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
7 th 3 rd<br />
11 th 20 th<br />
1 st 18 th<br />
24 th<br />
7 th 10 th 1 st<br />
40<br />
50<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
United States<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Germany<br />
Switzerland<br />
Norway<br />
Denmark<br />
Canada<br />
Sweden<br />
Austria<br />
Japan<br />
New Zealand<br />
Slovak Republic<br />
Finland<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Netherlands<br />
Hungary<br />
Luxembourg<br />
Australia<br />
France<br />
Iceland<br />
Belgium<br />
Poland<br />
Ireland<br />
Korea<br />
Greece<br />
Italy<br />
Spain<br />
Turkey<br />
Mexico<br />
Portugal<br />
55-64 extra for 45-54 extra for 35-44 extra for 25-34<br />
Source: OECD (2006) Education at Glance 2006. Table A1.2a, p.38.<br />
22
2.5<br />
Labour market disadvantage of low-qualified (2002)<br />
2<br />
Unemployment to population ratio:<br />
24 year-olds without upper secondary compared to those with upper secondary<br />
Incidence of unemployment among those young people in<br />
Australia who have not completed Year 12 or equivalent is<br />
more than double that of young people who have.<br />
1.5<br />
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1<br />
0.5<br />
0<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Australia<br />
Ireland<br />
Germany<br />
Austria<br />
Sweden<br />
Belgium<br />
United Kingdom<br />
France<br />
Netherlands<br />
United States<br />
Denmark<br />
Slovak Republic<br />
Canada<br />
Hungary<br />
Finland<br />
Poland<br />
Italy<br />
Portugal<br />
Spain<br />
Greece<br />
Source: Sweet, R. (2006) Education, training and employment in an international perspective. (richard@sweetgroup.org)<br />
23
Tertiary education attainment<br />
60<br />
50<br />
1 st 12 th 2 nd 3 rd<br />
40<br />
8 th<br />
30<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
1 st 2 nd 8 th 14 th<br />
25 th<br />
United States<br />
Canada<br />
Denmark<br />
Sweden<br />
Finland<br />
Netherlands<br />
Norway<br />
Australia<br />
Germany<br />
Switzerland<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Belgium<br />
New Zealand<br />
Japan<br />
Iceland<br />
Luxembourg<br />
55-64 extra for 45-54 extra for 35-44 extra for 25-34<br />
Source: OECD (2006) Education at Glance 2006, Table A1.3, p.39.<br />
Ireland<br />
Austria<br />
Hungary<br />
France<br />
Spain<br />
Poland<br />
Greece<br />
Czech Republic<br />
Korea<br />
Slovak Republic<br />
Mexico<br />
Italy<br />
Portugal<br />
Turkey<br />
24
Storyline on <strong>Australian</strong> schooling<br />
<strong>Australian</strong> school education is high-quality.<br />
There are equity problems:<br />
• our weaker students do somewhat worse than those in other high-quality countries,<br />
• social background differences matter more than in other high-quality countries,<br />
• social background differences account for 70% of differences in school performances.<br />
There are too many students who drop out before completing the equivalent of upper<br />
secondary education.<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
What might we do to improve the situation In a half-hour presentation I did not have<br />
time for that.<br />
25
Thank-you<br />
mcgaw group pty ltd<br />
ABN 34 117 491 228<br />
Contact<br />
barry.mcgaw@mcgawgroup.org<br />
bmcgaw@unimelb.edu.au<br />
26
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