PETROLEUM INDUSTRY REFORM IN NIGERIA: SIMULATION ...

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Production Sharing Contract Model Stochastic Variable Assumptions Instruments Real Oil Price, 2010$/Bbl OPEX, 2010$/Bbl Actual OPEX Abroad, % Actual CAPEX Abroad, % Capacity, Bbl/Day Inflation,% Distribution Assumptions Triangular (Min, Mode, Max) Triangular (Min, Mode, Max) Triangular (Min, Mode, Max) Triangular (Min, Mode, Max) Lognormal (Mode, Mean, Std) Triangular (Min, Mode, Max) Distribution Parameters 60.00 75.00 90.00 5.00 6.00 7.50 0 50 100 0 80 100 40,000 50,000 500 1.0 2.0 3.0 OOILEDARE USAEE 2010, Calgary, Canada 14
Production Sharing Contract Model Decision Variable Base Assumptions Decision Instruments Cost Recovery Limit, % Distribution Parameters Profit Oil Split/G,% 20 80 Eligible Foreign CAPEX, % Eligible Foreign OPEX, % Hydrocarbon Tax CITA Allowance Cap, $/Bbl 80 80 30 30 Min (7, 0.3*P) P=real oil price OOILEDARE USAEE 2010, Calgary, Canada 15
Page 1 and 2: PETROLEUM INDUSTRY REFORM IN NIGERI
Page 3 and 4: Petroleum Industry in Nigeria • N
Page 5 and 6: Broad Objectives of the Reform •
Page 7 and 8: Fiscal System Instruments Nigeria S
Page 9 and 10: Proposed Fiscal Instruments for Nig
Page 11 and 12: Proposed Example Fiscal of Instrume
Page 13: Modeling Deepwater Economics —DCF
Page 17 and 18: Incremental Deepwater Project: 100
Page 19 and 20: Sensitivity of Nominal IRR vs. HGT
Page 21 and 22: Sensitivity of Nominal IRR vs. HGT
Page 23 and 24: Internal Rate of Return: Fifty Perc
Page 25 and 26: Conclusions • Ongoing petroleum i

PETROLEUM INDUSTRY REFORM IN NIGERIA: SIMULATION ...

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