Koichi Fujita.pdf - JICA Research Institute

Green Revolution in India and Its Significance in
Economic Development:
Implications for sub-Saharan Africa
IPD, Fourth Task Force on Africa
Pretoria, July 10, 2009
Koichi FUJITA
Center for Southeast Asian Studies
Kyoto University, Japan

Objectives of the paper
• To analyze the historical role of the Green Revolution
in South Asia (especially in India) in its overall
economic development process
• To show the logic why Green Revolution is essential
before starting sustainable economic development
with industrialization
• To consider the possibilities of Green Revolution in
the context of contemporary sub-Saharan Africa

Accelerated economic growth in India after the 1990s
Impact of liberalization policies
→ Role of the agricultural development in the 1980s

Food production, net export, and population in India
Neglect of agriculture
↑
1 st Green Rev.
=Lost decade
Severe droughts
2 nd Green Rev.

Wheat as a minor crop to a dominant crop
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
Million tons
2000/01
1950/51
1952/53
1954/55
1956/57
1958/59
1960/61
1962/63
1964/65
1966/67
1968/69
1970/71
1972/73
1974/75
1976/77
1978/79
1980/81
1982/83
1984/85
1986/87
1988/89
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
Rice
Wheat
Coarse grains
Maize
Eastern and Southern
Northern and Western
Year

Wheat Revolution in India

Nationwide agricultural development in the 1980s
Table 1 Growth Rate of Crop Production in India
1950~60 1960~70 1970~80 1980~90 1990~96
Rice 4.53 2.12 1.73 4.08 1.60
Wheat 5.79 7.73 4.15 4.29 3.64
Coarse grains 3.76 1.67 0.55 0.71 -0.99
Maize 7.84 3.90 0.64 3.20 1.30
Total 4.45 3.10 2.07 3.38 1.81
Pulses 3.80 -0.47 -1.18 2.45 -0.07
Total Foodgrains 4.35 2.63 1.76 3.31 1.66
Oilseeds 3.05 2.41 1.34 6.01 4.16
Sugarcane 5.62 2.54 2.27 4.38 3.72
Cotton 4.54 2.03 2.69 3.23 4.51
Jute/Mesta 5.60 0.32 2.13 1.28 2.18
Note.The data are three year moving averages.
Rice Revolution in eastern and southern India and oilseeds and cotton
revolutions in hitherto coarse grain producing areas.

Rice Revolution in the 1980s
50
45
40
Sown area (million ha)
Yield (100kg/ha)
Irrigated Ratio(%)
Sown area
60
50
Million hecrate, 100kg/ha
35
30
25
20
15
10
Yield
Irrigated
ratio(right)
↑Tube-wells
40
30
20
10
5
0
0
1950/51
1960/61
1970/71
1980/81
1990/91
2000/01
2003/04
*
↓ high growth
%

Minor irrigation development in India
( 1000 ha )
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
Canal(Gov.)
Tube-well
Other well
4000
2000
0
Tank
Others
Canal(Private)
1960/61 1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 1995/96(p)
( Year )

Great divergence between South Asia and sub-Saharan
Africa in the 1980s
Per capita calorie intake in developing countries
South Asia
Rising real wages
Reduction of rural
poverty
sub-Saharan Africa

Essence of Indian (and Bangladesh) experience
• In the 1980s rice Revolution in eastern (including Bangladesh)
and southern India and yellow Revolution (oilseeds) in central
India was taken place, which raised rural income and alleviate
poverty to a certain extent.
• The engine of rice Revolution was the introduction of tubewell
irrigation in hitherto rain-fed rice growing areas.
• Tube-well irrigation induced a widespread emergence and
development of ‘groundwater market’, which was basically an
efficient rural institution.

Logic of Green Revolution’s role in economic development
• Nationwide agricultural growth with productivity growth
↓
• Uplifting income of majority of population (rural population)
‘to a certain level’
↓
• Thus creating a large ‘market’ for non-agricultural products
and services
↓
• Development of non-agricultural sector in a sustainable
manner

Implications for sub-Saharan Africa I
• The key is how to raise income of majority of population to a
certain extent
• Is a Green Revolution possible in sub-Saharan Africa
• Disadvantages:
1) Diversity of staple food (wheat and rice is relatively minor crop
for farmers)
2) Almost totally rain-fed
3) Difference in food preference between rural and urban areas
4) Labor scarcity (still) in rural areas
5) Small market size for industrialization (small poor countries)

Implications for sub-Saharan Africa II
• The most prospective is a rice Green Revolution
• Possibility of NERICA (New Rice for Africa)
• May not be a widespread Green Revolution in rural Africa, but
at least contribute to a substantial decrease of rice imports
• Importance of investment for agriculture in addition to
investment in agriculture

Thank you
for your attention !